Reds (Lodolo) vs Brewers (Gasser): 6/29/26, 6:40pm

[sveumrules]

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

[liveforoctober]

3 hours ago, cragi said:

Exactly. this a great example of the "lies" of statistics being able to push people to a particular conclusion instead of just letting the results speak for itself.

If you tell a casual observer that the Brewers have the 5th best record baseball when Perkins starts, they might think "Amazing! They should start him every day!"

However, when you invert that statistic you realize that the Brewers were 38-21 (.644) with him not starting, which puts them in a nearly a tie with the Dodgers (.647) for best record in baseball.  

This is where the eye test of "man, Perkins has really struggled and its hurting the team" prevails. Sometimes its just what everyone obviously sees.

Stats are just puzzle pieces. They are interesting and help decipher the overall riddle.

The Brewers have the 22nd best team OPS against LHP in baseball (.679). They have the 6th best team OPS against RHP in baseball (.756). Perk only starts against LHP - when the whole team 'struggles'.
 

Not trying to twist a narrative. Just reporting actually data that is available. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

The problem is something that has been the Brewers' postseason achilles heel in recent years, though - their position player roster doesn't have enough offense.

When Mitchell kept getting hurt, with Yelich needing time out of the OF, Chourio dealing with hammy issues last season and missing time, a player like Perkins is valuable to help a good team churn through regular season wins.  However, if those players + Frelick are healthy and producing at reasonable levels, Perkins is a 6th OF on this team because of defense only, and he's worthless in October.  Arguing that 1 good defender with a weak offensive game doesn't crater a team's winning percentage too much is kind of silly, when the rest of the roster is pretty damn good.  It avoids looking at what the teams winning percentage could be if that roster spot was manned by a player who could provide what has been a problem for this organization leading to playoff exits and the few tough stretches during regular season - offense.

The same can be said of their IF left side options right now - Pratt, Ortiz, Hamilton....all plus defenders you can put across demanding IF positions....but they are bottom of the order hitters on any MLB roster that can be upgraded with a better hitter who may not be as slick defensively but can still probably give you a better chance to win a game for you in October instead of just being a postseason run preventer behind a pitching staff that already will be striking a ton of hitters out.

I'd much rather add a bat-first OF/IF option to this roster and option Perkins to AAA.

[liveforoctober]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The problem is something that has been the Brewers' postseason achilles heel in recent years, though - their position player roster doesn't have enough offense.

When Mitchell kept getting hurt, with Yelich needing time out of the OF, Chourio dealing with hammy issues last season and missing time, a player like Perkins is valuable to help a good team churn through regular season wins.  However, if those players + Frelick are healthy and producing at reasonable levels, Perkins is a 6th OF on this team because of defense only, and he's worthless in October.  Arguing that 1 good defender with a weak offensive game doesn't crater a team's winning percentage too much is kind of silly, when the rest of the roster is pretty damn good.  It avoids looking at what the teams winning percentage could be if that roster spot was manned by a player who could provide what has been a problem for this organization leading to playoff exits and the few tough stretches during regular season - offense.

I'd be curious what BF.Net users think the guys rank (who can play outfield for us on the current roster) in terms of OPS against LHP without looking it up (Chourio, Yelich, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick, Perkins).

If we want our best offensive lineup out there against a lefty there are two pretty big outliers of that group who should not be playing and I'm assuming it would surprise most. If we don't want Yelich playing the field ... Perkins should start.

Not having another option to replace Perkins on the overall roster is a different conversation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

24 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I'd be curious what BF.Net users think the guys rank (who can play outfield for us on the current roster) in terms of OPS against LHP without looking it up (Chourio, Yelich, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick, Perkins).

If we want our best offensive lineup out there against a lefty there are two pretty big outliers of that group who should not be playing and I'm assuming it would surprise most. If we don't want Yelich playing the field ... Perkins should start.

Not having another option to replace Perkins on the overall roster is a different conversation.

That's why this is a debate that is pointless - against a lefty, you've got to have better offensive options to put in the OF than Perkins, when the rest of your OF options could also be plus defenders.  Justifying playing Perkins against lefties because his career splits are a bit better than other lefty bat options who are also plus defenders at their OF positions (Mitchell, Frelick) and you don't want to stick Bauers out there isn't what I'm arguing against - the team needs a better bat against LHP that can play OF or, frankly, a better bat that can be a utility IF, too.

 

[liveforoctober]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

That's why this is a debate that is pointless - against a lefty, you've got to have better offensive options to put in the OF than Perkins, when the rest of your OF options could also be plus defenders.  Justifying playing Perkins against lefties because his career splits are a bit better than other lefty bat options who are also plus defenders at their OF positions (Mitchell, Frelick) and you don't want to stick Bauers out there isn't what I'm arguing against - the team needs a better bat against LHP that can play OF or, frankly, a better bat that can be a utility IF, too.

 

Yep. Not arguing against upgrading the roster. But when we face Abbott tomorrow and Perkins starts the IGT will lose it's mind again against Murphy for playing him. Given the options available to him ... it is the right call. Just more misplaced anger. Talk to Arnold about the roster upgrades.

Perkins in June .320/.414/.560/.974

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

By the stats you shared starting Vaughn against RHP has a significantly worse record but I’m sure people are going to ignore that one because it doesn’t fit agendas.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The problem is something that has been the Brewers' postseason achilles heel in recent years, though - their position player roster doesn't have enough offense.

When Mitchell kept getting hurt, with Yelich needing time out of the OF, Chourio dealing with hammy issues last season and missing time, a player like Perkins is valuable to help a good team churn through regular season wins.  However, if those players + Frelick are healthy and producing at reasonable levels, Perkins is a 6th OF on this team because of defense only, and he's worthless in October.  Arguing that 1 good defender with a weak offensive game doesn't crater a team's winning percentage too much is kind of silly, when the rest of the roster is pretty damn good.  It avoids looking at what the teams winning percentage could be if that roster spot was manned by a player who could provide what has been a problem for this organization leading to playoff exits and the few tough stretches during regular season - offense.

The same can be said of their IF left side options right now - Pratt, Ortiz, Hamilton....all plus defenders you can put across demanding IF positions....but they are bottom of the order hitters on any MLB roster that can be upgraded with a better hitter who may not be as slick defensively but can still probably give you a better chance to win a game for you in October instead of just being a postseason run preventer behind a pitching staff that already will be striking a ton of hitters out.

I'd much rather add a bat-first OF/IF option to this roster and option Perkins to AAA.

The worthless in the playoffs Blake Perkins is one of only four Brewers hitters to have a wRC+ over 100 in the playoffs over the last two years. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Yep. Not arguing against upgrading the roster. But when we face Abbott tomorrow and Perkins starts the IGT will lose it's mind again against Murphy for playing him. Given the options available to him ... it is the right call. Just more misplaced anger. Talk to Arnold about the roster upgrades.

Perkins in June .320/.414/.560/.974

Plus, it's not like they're 'in love' with him or any other such nonsense you sometimes read. He was left off the roster on opening day but had to be added when Chourio couldn't go. He was then optioned a second time, but quickly returned when Lockridge was hurt.

There's a reason why teams usually don't !!!!DO SOMETHING!!!! at this point of the season--the cost of getting a trade partner to take an early plunge is usually prohibitive, especially when you aren't as equipped as others to just throw money at any organizational holes the extra cost might create, Plus, you're currently in a position where you don't need to panic. They have prospect capital, and I'm sure they're talking to other teams---about pitching, about the left side of the INF, about a RH OF bat. If anything, #3 is probably the least of the worries right now as your numbers point out.

The roster won't be the same in five weeks as it is now. It never is.

[cragi]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

Sounds like we agree then that the stats were cherry-picked to push a counter-narrative instead of using stats that speak for themselves.

Look, I appreciate the stat research you do, but would appreciate it more if there wasnt an added slant.

If you want to use winning percentage as some kind of litmus test as to whether or not Perkins' has been a detriment, the honest take would be to compare WP% with and without him in the lineup. There is a .078 spread between games won without him and those won with him. 

When compared with their .622 WP%, the honest take is that the Brewers have a 12.5% greater likelihood of winning when Perkins doesnt start, which matches the eye test we can see for ourselves. And Im no Perkins hater, having just put out a thread about him showing some life. 

Sometimes stats are just putting lipstick on a pig.

 

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, cragi said:

Sounds like we agree then that the stats were cherry-picked to push a counter-narrative instead of using stats that speak for themselves.

My whole thought process was…

- hey, the Brewers won another game where Perkins started

- I wonder what their record is when Perkins starts?

(looks it up)

- hmm, that’s higher than I expected given all the consternation whenever Perkins starts

[liveforoctober]

45 minutes ago, cragi said:

If you want to use winning percentage as some kind of litmus test as to whether or not Perkins' has been a detriment, the honest take would be to compare WP% with and without him in the lineup. There is a .078 spread between games won without him and those won with him. 

Sometimes stats are just putting lipstick on a pig.

 

By my count, when Andrew Vaughn starts the Brewers are 21-12 on the year (.636%). When he doesn't start they are 7-4 (.636%).

So by the logic above the Brewers are no better as a team when Vaughn starts vs when he is on the bench, correct?

Or are there MANY other outside factors that play into 9 innings of a game that pinning success on one player is a little crazy?

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

The worthless in the playoffs Blake Perkins is one of only four Brewers hitters to have a wRC+ over 100 in the playoffs over the last two years. 

He's  what, 6-21 with a handful of walks the last two postseasons with no slugging?  

That he's only 1 of 4 hitters with that wRC+ value over a hilariously small sample size for that stat doesn't mean anything besides the rest of the team needs to hit the ball better in October.  

 

[Opening Day]

45 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

 

By my count, when Andrew Vaughn starts the Brewers are 21-12 on the year (.636%). When he doesn't start they are 7-4 (.636%).

So by the logic above the Brewers are no better as a team when Vaughn starts vs when he is on the bench, correct?

Or are there MANY other outside factors that play into 9 innings of a game that pinning success on one player is a little crazy?
I
 

There are many factors contributing to a team's success.  An OF slashing .159/.253/.261 (OPS+ 43) usually isn't one of them. 

And I like Blake Perkins, I thought his D made up for his bat, in his role, for years.  But, hes been hitting so poorly that is no longer the case.  I hope he gets better or they make a move.

[cragi]

1 hour ago, liveforoctober said:

 

By my count, when Andrew Vaughn starts the Brewers are 21-12 on the year (.636%). When he doesn't start they are 7-4 (.636%).

So by the logic above the Brewers are no better as a team when Vaughn starts vs when he is on the bench, correct?

Or are there MANY other outside factors that play into 9 innings of a game that pinning success on one player is a little crazy?

 

im not the one trying to use WP% as a dismissal of the legitimate concerns regarding the impact of Perkins' performance. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, cragi said:

im not the one trying to use WP% as a dismissal of the legitimate concerns regarding the impact of Perkins' performance. 

Perkins has a 96 wRC+ against LHP this year. The concerns about his impact is severely overstated because he was being used poorly at the start of the season and was playing way too much against RHP. 

[Jimbo]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

Match? 

I keep seeing you post this, is it a soccer related thing due to the big soccer stuff going on?

I've never heard baseball games referred to as matches before...

I'm not aware of a similar term for baseball, so I borrowed it from another sport (I suppose football has "game ball").  I've used the term a couple of times in the past on this forum.

 

[Underachiever]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I'm not aware of a similar term for baseball, so I borrowed it from another sport (I suppose football has "game ball").  I've used the term a couple of times in the past on this forum.

 

Guy of the Game

Conqueror of the Contest

Best of the Basepaths

Excelsior of the Event

Star of the Struggle

Heart and Soul of the Head to Head

Bat of the Battle (for a hitter)

Royalty of the Rubber (for a pitcher)

Or, better yet, just keep with Man of the Match.

[Samurai Bucky]

6 hours ago, Turning2 said:

I've only been listening to him the past couple years. Just lately now I'm starting to notice all the silly drivel he yammers on about for far too long. It's OK to have dead spots on air when the game is going on, let the game call itself sometimes. Don't need to fill every moment with talk just to talk. 

I actually find it quite entertaining.  The bit where he did the song from Cliffhanger from the Price is Right is still my favorite.

I think there were those that said Uecker's fillers were nonsense, too, until they got used to it.  At least his stuff was mostly baseball related.

[formerlybis]

1 minute ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I actually find it quite entertaining.  The bit where he did the song from Cliffhanger from the Price is Right is still my favorite.

I think there were those that said Uecker's fillers were nonsense, too, until they got used to it.  At least his stuff was mostly baseball related.

Not always - there was one exchange I remember where during a lull in the action, the color guy asked if Ueck was packing extra underwear for the long road trip they were about to go on.

"Naah, I just turn'em inside out."

To this day, I can't stop shaking my head laughing thinking about that response - maybe it was so quick because it was true. Maybe others don't see the humor in it at all, but it was perfect for his brand/persona to me.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, Opening Day said:

There are many factors contributing to a team's success.  An OF slashing .159/.253/.261 (OPS+ 43) usually isn't one of them. 

And I like Blake Perkins, I thought his D made up for his bat, in his role, for years.  But, hes been hitting so poorly that is no longer the case.  I hope he gets better or they make a move.

Yes, thank you. You are making my point for me.

[liveforoctober]

56 minutes ago, cragi said:

im not the one trying to use WP% as a dismissal of the legitimate concerns regarding the impact of Perkins' performance. 

You literally used it as THE reason for concern haha. 

[Turning2]

35 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I actually find it quite entertaining.  The bit where he did the song from Cliffhanger from the Price is Right is still my favorite.

I think there were those that said Uecker's fillers were nonsense, too, until they got used to it.  At least his stuff was mostly baseball related.

Overall, I like Levering. I like Vinny too. They are not insufferable. But I'm beginning to see why people generally prefer BA and Rock. I'm just not interested in the digressions into pop culture fluff, food items, etc that Jeff veers off into sometimes. Everybody has their preferences though. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

I'm not aware of a similar term for baseball, so I borrowed it from another sport (I suppose football has "game ball").  I've used the term a couple of times in the past on this forum.

 

A couple?

Well, "man of the match" just screams soccer, or some other sport than baseball.

Ok then, carry on...