1/2 Way Observations

[jay87shot]

On pace for 100 wins. Lots of good stuff but lots of places were small tweeks or consistency could make this team great. Thoughts?

I think I will grade the offense B+, starters A-, bullpen B, defense B, coaching B+

 

[Turning2]

It's the movie Groundhog Day. Same stuff, different year. Like Lucy holding the football and promising Charlie Brown, ... THIS time I'm not going to pull it away .... I promise.

No doubt, they are a good to very good team. They compete all year long, but real success, WS success,  depends entirely on a whole bunch of serendipity aligning just right in ways it doesn't have to for big market teams. They are a summer long entertainment consummating with a peck on the cheek at the end of the date instead of inviting you in for "coffee".  Hoping to get healthy and hot at just the right exact time in October has never happened with that current approach of the past several years, and may never. 

They have the necessary starting pitching. They don't have enough effective, middle relief, and they certainly don't have any cornerstone power hitters that can carry the team for very long while others are taking their turns with slumping. They are too collectively hot or cold. Contreras is the lone steady bat. Probably Vaughn too except they won't plug him in every day. All in all, I don't think they have a mentally tough team, and perhaps the Brewer way cultivates that shortcoming by the type of players they pursue and develop. It seems like a squeaky clean, aww shucks clubhouse culture - which isn't the worst thing. They just don't seem to play with a chip on their shoulder for lack of a better description. At some point, I want to see somebody slam a damn helmet down in the dugout. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

It's the movie Groundhog Day. Same stuff, different year. Like Lucy holding the football and promising Charlie Brown, ... THIS time I'm not going to pull it away .... I promise.

No doubt, they are a good to very good team. They compete all year long, but real success, WS success,  depends entirely on a whole bunch of serendipity aligning just right in ways it doesn't have to for big market teams. They are a summer long entertainment consummating with a peck on the cheek at the end of the date instead of inviting you in for "coffee".  Hoping to get healthy and hot at just the right exact time in October has never happened with that current approach of the past several years, and may never. 

They have the necessary starting pitching. They don't have enough effective, middle relief, and they certainly don't have any cornerstone power hitters that can carry the team for very long while others are taking their turns with slumping. They are too collectively hot or cold. Contreras is the lone steady bat. Probably Vaughn too except they won't plug him in every day. All in all, I don't think they have a mentally tough team, and perhaps the Brewer way cultivates that shortcoming by the type of players they pursue and develop. It seems like a squeaky clean, aww shucks clubhouse culture - which isn't the worst thing. They just don't seem to play with a chip on their shoulder for lack of a better description. At some point, I want to see somebody slam a damn helmet down in the dugout. 

I would personally classify Jackson Chourio as pretty "steady"....

[Turning2]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I would personally classify Jackson Chourio as pretty "steady"....

Yes, I'll give him that. His down funks aren't as funky as some others, and he usually still makes good contact. I feel hopeful and confident when he comes to the plate. 

[owbc]

I had them at 100 wins in the bold predictions thread with a more realistic prediction of low-90s wins. They have clearly established themselves among a group of 4 elite teams in the 2026 MLB season with their +120 run differential. 

I think we need to appreciate that it is really, really hard for any team that wins 95+ games to repeat that performance a second year it a row. It takes a LOT to go right to win 95 and the fact that they have barely missed a beat in 2026 is truly phenomenal. Last year they had to make up some ground in summer and put together an incredible hot streak. This year they look more established and comfortable in front of the division which I think bodes well for October. The series against the Cubs that just concluded felt way more important for the Cubs than it did to us.

Overall:

- Above expectations

Component wise:

- Starting pitching: far above expectations
- Relief pitching: below expectations
- Offense: near expectations
- Defense: slightly below expectations
- Intangibles/vibes: near expectations

Postseason expectations: make NLCS again and put up a better fight than 2025. They have better starting pitching this year so one would expect that a Miz/Harrison combo could win us a couple of LCS games. An aggressive trade deadline could draw them closer to the Dodgers, but as usual I suspect that some of the underperforming regular season performers on LAD will suddenly rediscover their abilities in late September. 

[rickh150]

Just a great 1st half. So impressive.

[Day]

Brilliant first half of the season for us and I think Murph has learned from last season and we will be better prepared to go far in the playoffs if we get there again. I think this team is capable of winning the world series

[yourout]

My take is this team is much like last year's. Very good at making weaker opponents bleed with walks and errors but when we run into teams that play good defense and don't walk guys we're going to struggle.

[sveumrules]

8 hours ago, yourout said:

My take is this team is much like last year's. Very good at making weaker opponents bleed with walks and errors but when we run into teams that play good defense and don't walk guys we're going to struggle.

Last year the Brewers went 46 W - 38 L against teams .500 or better for a .548 W%, against teams under .500 they went 51 W -27 L for a .654 W%.

So far this year they are 29 W - 18 L against teams .500 or better for a .617 W%, against teams under .500 they are 22 W - 13 L for a .629 W%.

This year's model has played much better so far against the other good teams than last year's model did. Probably because this team has just been across the board better in the macro...

Runs Scored per Game
2025: 4.98 
2026: 5.16 

Runs Allowed per Game
2025: 3.91 
2026: 3.67

Run Differential per Game
2025: +1.07
2026: +1.49

The 2025 pitchers were getting a lot more help from their defense with a 3.59 ERA | 3.91 FIP while this year's staff has more dominant peripherals at a 3.41 ERA | 3.54 FIP.

2025 offense posted a 107 wRC+ full season, this year's model is only at a 105 wRC+ so far but with pretty drastic splits between thru May 3rd with no Chourio/Vaughn (95 wRC+) versus putting up a 112 wRC+ since they returned to the lineup.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I expected a competitive team this year but not a dominant one.  The division was going to be much better this year which I assumed would make it harder to get wins.  But the Miz and Harrison have made such a difference this year. Who could have predicted they would be this good?  The offense continues to do well without a lot of stars.  Bauers and Vaughn have been the big surprises.  The bullpen is solid and deep but not dominant as in years past.  The defense has also been good but not elite like we are used to.

Overall:
- Well above expectations

Component wise:

- Starting pitching: far above expectations
- Relief pitching: below expectations
- Offense: above expectations
- Defense: below expectations

[Trail]

I’d love to know if others are seeing this, but it just seems like this team has an air of unfinished business. The demeanor of the team seems a little bit more hard-core and business like this year. You don’t see the fun celebrations with the weird hats and necklaces after Home runs… It’s just let’s get back to business. 

as an older fan, I see some parallels between the 25/26 Brewers and the 81/82 Brewers. Situation was different and the playoff structure was different, but the 81 Brewers lost to the Yankees in the playoffs and learned a great deal. Most importantly, they learned that they were an elite team and belonged.The following year it was as if they expected to be there and just needed to go out and get the job done. Kind of the same feeling this year. They are no longer grateful to be in the playoffs… They expect to win the division, expect to be in the NLCS…anything less than a World Series appearance I think will be a disappointment to this team and this organization. That is a huge step forward.

[formerlybis]

It’s a matter of perspective. For me, I’m overall ecstatic with the results, and that’s the bottom line. No team goes half a season with everything always at peak performance. It’s a very competitive team that finds ways to stack Ws. I find even more satisfaction doing this with the budgetary constraints. 
 

When it comes to the postseason, I have hope, but not expectations. It’s just the way it is  Once in a great while, perhaps once in a lifetime, the stars align and a Leicester wins the Premier League. It does happen, but it is far more likely the teams with a bevy of high priced superstars will win most of the time. Until the rules change (and not holding my breath), we’re more like Leicester than Liverpool.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Last year the Brewers went 46 W - 38 L against teams .500 or better for a .548 W%, against teams under .500 they went 51 W -27 L for a .654 W%.

So far this year they are 29 W - 18 L against teams .500 or better for a .617 W%, against teams under .500 they are 22 W - 13 L for a .629 W%.

This year's model has played much better so far against the other good teams than last year's model did. Probably because this team has just been across the board better in the macro...

Runs Scored per Game
2025: 4.98 
2026: 5.16 

Runs Allowed per Game
2025: 3.91 
2026: 3.67

Run Differential per Game
2025: +1.07
2026: +1.49

The 2025 pitchers were getting a lot more help from their defense with a 3.59 ERA | 3.91 FIP while this year's staff has more dominant peripherals at a 3.41 ERA | 3.54 FIP.

2025 offense posted a 107 wRC+ full season, this year's model is only at a 105 wRC+ so far but with pretty drastic splits between thru May 3rd with no Chourio/Vaughn (95 wRC+) versus putting up a 112 wRC+ since they returned to the lineup.

This post proves why you are my favorite poster here. Continually proving the resident pessimists around here wrong with cold, hard FACTS. Thank you for your service.

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, Trail said:

I’d love to know if others are seeing this, but it just seems like this team has an air of unfinished business. The demeanor of the team seems a little bit more hard-core and business like this year. You don’t see the fun celebrations with the weird hats and necklaces after Home runs… It’s just let’s get back to business. 

as an older fan, I see some parallels between the 25/26 Brewers and the 81/82 Brewers. Situation was different and the playoff structure was different, but the 81 Brewers lost to the Yankees in the playoffs and learned a great deal. Most importantly, they learned that they were an elite team and belonged.The following year it was as if they expected to be there and just needed to go out and get the job done. Kind of the same feeling this year. They are no longer grateful to be in the playoffs… They expect to win the division, expect to be in the NLCS…anything less than a World Series appearance I think will be a disappointment to this team and this organization. That is a huge step forward.

Feels like a carbon copy of last year more or less. Struggle early, hammered with injuries, limp along just competitively enough to stay afloat, find some footing, get healthier, start stacking wins, winning by pressure rather than by reliable offense. I don't see a resemblance to the '82 team generally speaking. While it's easy to slip into romanticized, exaggerated recollection, that team simply felt like it had a different swagger because they knew they could count on their big hitters. But I was a kid then, so my perception at the time was probably not that acute. 

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

limp along just competitively enough to stay afloat

Limping along with the second best winning percentage and run differential in MLB.

Just competitively enough to stay afloat for a 5.5 game division lead and a 100 to 101 win pace.

[Turning2]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Limping along with the second best winning percentage and run differential in MLB.

Just competitively enough to stay afloat for a 5.5 game division lead and a 100 to 101 win pace.

I was laying out the path their season has taken. The limping along was taking place approx 6-8 weeks ago. They have since gotten their footing and find themselves how you describe them. It was a similar experience last year. We're on the same summer entertainment ride this year. And I suspect we'll have a very similar conclusion.  

[kestrel79]

Great first half, really for Brewers baseball can't ask for much better. It was the best first half we've ever seen, and I think we all still feel like this team hasn't played up to it's true potential which is exciting. Too many here are quick to criticize

My main concerns are can the young arms last and be strong down the stretch and into the playoffs? Many haven't pitched this many innings before ever, will they pitch like Miz in last year's playoffs and look great? Or will they look like Shawn Marcum / Jeffress in 2011 Playoffs and show signs of wear?

[Thurston Fluff]

57 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

Feels like a carbon copy of last year more or less. Struggle early, hammered with injuries, limp along just competitively enough to stay afloat, find some footing, get healthier, start stacking wins, winning by pressure rather than by reliable offense. I don't see a resemblance to the '82 team generally speaking. While it's easy to slip into romanticized, exaggerated recollection, that team simply felt like it had a different swagger because they knew they could count on their big hitters. But I was a kid then, so my perception at the time was probably not that acute. 

The 82 team's record on June 30th was 42-31. They fired their manager earlier that month after going 23-24. They didn't get Sutton until late august. Charlie Moore and his 6 homeruns, sub .300 OBP and 85 OPS+ was their starting right fielder and Jim Gantner was the second baseman. IIRC Yount had his usual (by his standards) slow start before doing what he always did. Turn in a monster second half.

Offensively speaking that team was way more like this one that you may remember. 

Pitching wise, Randy Lerch and his 4.97 ERA (77 ERA+) was their fifth starter until they traded for Sutton. In fact the only starter who had an ERA+ above 100 was Vuckovich. Their bullpen went three deep. To be fair starters went longer back then so it wasn't as bad as it would be today but it wasn't great beyond Fingers and Slaton.

While this team may not make one as confident as that one did power wise it also had it's holes. It also didn't come close to imbuing one with confidence on the pitching side as the current staff does. The way they win may not be the same but I think there are plenty of similarities. Both had weaknesses and both are one of the better teams in the league by most measures. The only real difference is this team has a much better history of success coming into their respective seasons.

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

The 82 team's record on June 30th was 42-31. They fired their manager earlier that month after going 23-24. They didn't get Sutton until late august. Charlie Moore and his 6 homeruns, sub .300 OBP and 85 OPS+ was their starting right fielder and Jim Gantner was the second baseman. IIRC Yount had his usual (by his standards) slow start before doing what he always did. Turn in a monster second half.

Offensively speaking that team was way more like this one that you may remember. 

Pitching wise, Randy Lerch and his 4.97 ERA (77 ERA+) was their fifth starter until they traded for Sutton. In fact the only starter who had an ERA+ above 100 was Vuckovich. Their bullpen went three deep. To be fair starters went longer back then so it wasn't as bad as it would be today but it wasn't great beyond Fingers and Slaton.

While this team may not make one as confident as that one did power wise it also had it's holes. It also didn't come close to imbuing one with confidence on the pitching side as the current staff does. The way they win may not be the same but I think there are plenty of similarities. Both had weaknesses and both are one of the better teams in the league by most measures. The only real difference is this team has a much better history of success coming into their respective seasons.

Yes, of course they had holes in '82. Hard to gauge the impact of those holes in that era compared to today's MLB.  The pitching wasn't as formidable as we currently enjoy to be sure, but we just learned in the Cubs series that formidable pitching isn't enough. You have to have pop. The '82 team ended the '81 season ranked 4th in HRs and finished '82 ranked #1 at least from the stats I see online. Having big pop permeates the dugout swagger. While the 2026 version of the Brewers has strengths that the '82 team didn't, it's still, in my view, a blind squirrel finding an acorn when it comes to hoping for a big bat to pop one at a critical time. It happens, just not often enough to get too confident in. And I think those late '70's early '80s teams felt more confident in that regard. But, admittedly, that's all just subjective, and it's why I don't see the similarities between the two teams that others might. 

[owbc]

27 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

Yes, of course they had holes in '82. Hard to gauge the impact of those holes in that era compared to today's MLB.  The pitching wasn't as formidable as we currently enjoy to be sure, but we just learned in the Cubs series that formidable pitching isn't enough. You have to have pop. The '82 team ended the '81 season ranked 4th in HRs and finished '82 ranked #1 at least from the stats I see online. Having big pop permeates the dugout swagger. While the 2026 version of the Brewers has strengths that the '82 team didn't, it's still, in my view, a blind squirrel finding an acorn when it comes to hoping for a big bat to pop one at a critical time. It happens, just not often enough to get too confident in. And I think those late '70's early '80s teams felt more confident in that regard. But, admittedly, that's all just subjective, and it's why I don't see the similarities between the two teams that others might. 

The top of our order can slug with anyone. The bottom of the order is where we've decided to trade slugging for OBP and defense. That tradeoff is almost impossible to avoid. We can wish for more slugging all day but if we made moves purely to add slugging it would change the identity of the offense. 

My criticisms of the offense might better be considered criticisms of the individuals in it. Frelick, Ortiz, and the various mix of 3B options have contributed almost nothing to our slugging. 

This team is not bad at slugging, it is league average. They are not elite because they are being driven down by a few extremely weak positions. 

[Thurston Fluff]

45 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

Yes, of course they had holes in '82. Hard to gauge the impact of those holes in that era compared to today's MLB.  The pitching wasn't as formidable as we currently enjoy to be sure, but we just learned in the Cubs series that formidable pitching isn't enough. You have to have pop. The '82 team ended the '81 season ranked 4th in HRs and finished '82 ranked #1 at least from the stats I see online. Having big pop permeates the dugout swagger. While the 2026 version of the Brewers has strengths that the '82 team didn't, it's still, in my view, a blind squirrel finding an acorn when it comes to hoping for a big bat to pop one at a critical time. It happens, just not often enough to get too confident in. And I think those late '70's early '80s teams felt more confident in that regard. But, admittedly, that's all just subjective, and it's why I don't see the similarities between the two teams that others might. 

What does the last few games against the Cubs tell us that the sweep of them earlier didn't? We beat the same team more times than they beat us. Obviously I want to win every series. Especially at home. Yet we're 5 1/2 games ahead of them after losing two of three. I think if you'd ask them they'd have felt they needed a sweep more than we needed to win the series. I'm not trying to single you out here but I think the knee jerk reaction to losing a single series is way over the top for a lot of people.

We have one of the better offenses in the league, one of the better pitching staffs in the league and one of the best defenses in the league. Most other teams look at us and wonder how they're going to survive not the other way around. Even the other great teams know their hands are going to be full to win a series.

I get people's overreaction to the poor showing against the Dodgers last fall but even that was not indicative of how close we were. We just had a bad series after a let down from finally winning a playoff series. I think sweeping the season series tells us as much as a single series. Which is to say, not much. This year we have more experience in what it takes to move on in the playoffs and we seem to have a better team going into it. 

[Trail]

5 hours ago, Turning2 said:

Feels like a carbon copy of last year more or less. Struggle early, hammered with injuries, limp along just competitively enough to stay afloat, find some footing, get healthier, start stacking wins, winning by pressure rather than by reliable offense. I don't see a resemblance to the '82 team generally speaking. While it's easy to slip into romanticized, exaggerated recollection, that team simply felt like it had a different swagger because they knew they could count on their big hitters. But I was a kid then, so my perception at the time was probably not that acute. 

Very different teams...they don't get it done the same way.  That's not my point.  I'm referring to the overall demeanor and  how the previous year affected both teams and expectations.  Most here don't remember it, but in '82 a deep playoff run just seemed inevitable.  It was really a little bit weird.  No one questioned it.  That, I think, is the reason Buck Rogers was given a shorter leash than he might have been.  They were going...period.  Same thing this year...whether they get there or not only time will tell, but it just has the same feeling and it looks to me that's how the club sees it.  They're a mature, seasoned team, despite their relative youth.  

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, owbc said:

The top of our order can slug with anyone. The bottom of the order is where we've decided to trade slugging for OBP and defense. That tradeoff is almost impossible to avoid. We can wish for more slugging all day but if we made moves purely to add slugging it would change the identity of the offense. 

My criticisms of the offense might better be considered criticisms of the individuals in it. Frelick, Ortiz, and the various mix of 3B options have contributed almost nothing to our slugging. 

This team is not bad at slugging, it is league average. They are not elite because they are being driven down by a few extremely weak positions. 

They are currently in a 3 way tie for 25th in total HRs as a team. Specifying "top of our order" moves the goal posts of the discussion. Certainly the top is going to bring more power than the bottom of the order. That's true with practically every team. For sake of the distinction though, boil it down to Yelich, Chourio, Contreras, Bauers, Turang and Vaughn. On paper that looks like a tremendous amount of pop (especially if we add in Mitchell AND he was living up to his power hype - which he's not).

Bauers is MIL's top HR hitter currently. He is ranked 38th in MLB at 14.  That doesn't scream they "can slug with anyone" to me. To be fair, Yelich, Vaughn, and Chourio missed most of the first month or so. But again, to be fair, that hasn't really mattered. Yelich has become the ghost of power hitter past and Vaughn has traded power for average. Chourio is putting up respectable numbers. Turang started hot, then dropped like a rock, still likely to hit the 20 or more mark. Contreras like to end up with his usual numbers around 18. 

Obviously, overall slugging is more than HRs. But as a quick way to measure I go by HRs because the slugging follows suit more often than not. I just don't see the "we're fine, they can slug with anyone" that you feel. At the end of the day, they're more likely to come up short in Oct again because they don't have enough big pop in the lineup than they are to ride their top pitching and sub adequate power. Just my opinion. 

[Jimbo]

Some numbers that I track that I can share.

Man of the Match:

Misiorowski    7.0-1.0
Contreras    6.0-2.5
Harrison    5.5-0.0
Turang        4.0-0.0
Mitchell    3.0-0.0
Vaughn        3.0-0.0
Sprout        3.0-2.0
Frelick        2.5-0.3
Yelich        2.0-0.0
Bauers        2.0-0.3
Ortiz        1.5-1.3
Chourio        1.0-0.0
Kuhnel        1.0-0.0
Ashby        1.0-1.0
Anderson    1.0-1.0
Rengifo        1.0-1.0
Woodruff    1.0-1.0
Zerpa        1.0-1.0
Gasser        1.0-2.0
Megill        1.0-3.0
Patrick        1.0-5.0
Hamilton    0.5-0.5
Crow        0.0-1.0
Koenig        0.0-1.0
Matos        0.0-1.0
Sanchez        0.0-1.0
Drohan        0.0-2.0
Uribe        0.0-2.0

Offense        25.0-15.5
Starters    14.0- 5.0
Relievers    11.0-10.5
TOTAL        50.0-31.0
 

[Jimbo]

When win prob <10%      2-31
When win prob >90%     50- 1