Sal or Lara

[PlayerHader]

Not exactly the discussion here, but does anyone else think Lara needs to be given confidence to challenge high strike calls? I probably don’t watch games as consistently as many of you, but it seems like every other at bat of his gets tarnished by a 2-0 fastball 3 inches above the zone being called a strike.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, PlayerHader said:

Not exactly the discussion here, but does anyone else think Lara needs to be given confidence to challenge high strike calls? I probably don’t watch games as consistently as many of you, but it seems like every other at bat of his gets tarnished by a 2-0 fastball 3 inches above the zone being called a strike.

Murphy should have Sanchez talk to him for about 5 or 10 minutes since Gary is leading the league in challenges. 

[homer]

If Lara decided to go with the theme music from Dr Zhivago as his walkup song, I'd pick him hands down.

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, PlayerHader said:

Not exactly the discussion here, but does anyone else think Lara needs to be given confidence to challenge high strike calls? I probably don’t watch games as consistently as many of you, but it seems like every other at bat of his gets tarnished by a 2-0 fastball 3 inches above the zone being called a strike.

I don't remember which game it was, but Lara successfully challenged a high pitch this last week or so. I, too, think that kid's eye is elite and believe he should lead the team in coming seasons in batter-challenges.

When I see guys that aren't challenging "obvious" errors, I used to jump to the conclusion that the player isn't "allowed", or that they lack the confidence/conviction. However, as this season has progressed, I think it has more to do with how hard it is to identify ball/strike for anyone, and that each player has their own "effective range" when contemplating a challenge, so that everyone is guessing. Some are just better at it.

I know how much stick Sanchez gets for his challenges, but I think that typically (not always) his challenges are pretty good. They are often (not always) on important pitches, and they are almost universally really close. I think Sanchez is merely "average" at the skill of challenging, so I'm not defending his record as much as contesting the assertion that he needs to stop what he's doing.

It's super-easy to look back and believe that the team should "redistribute" challenges away from Sanchez in order to provide "more" challenges to others, but I don't see any of the hitters challenging more effectively than Sanchez. They all stink except for Bauers and maybe Yelich, but neither of them have had nearly enough attempts to find any meaningful information about it.

[Playing Catch]

Oh, and to get back on topic, I love Frelick. But I think Lara is better than Frelick right now, AND later, including in this season's playoffs. I think that for anything that he gives up with his inexperience/youth, he will make up for with his precocious ability to do things other guys can't. He's gunna win some games with sheer "playmaking" ability, whether that's lining soft-stuff into the corners, hard-stuff into the gaps, or taking a mazy path to the wall before making a spectacular catch. I think he's more skilled, in every facet than Frelick, except for perhaps throwing --- but that's just because Frelick is really good, and I haven't seen enough of Lara to form an opinion. One could argue that Frelick would be better than Lara in two-strike situations, as he'd rather get a Catcher interference or foul tip than take a close pitch, but that's a wash for me, as I think Lara will take far more 2-strike walks than Frelick.

I also disagree with those that think Lara has be scuffling any more than anyone else in the last couple of weeks, based on my eye test. He's hit some hard balls into outs, and has been learning that MLB pitchers can hit the edge of the zone much more effectively than in AAA. But I still see a disciplined, elite swing-decider who has enough power to keep pitchers honest in-zone.

(Sidenote for all the haters of their offense:  the Brewers last 7 games have been @SD and @LAD. Did we really expect that they'd be tearing it up on such a roadtrip?).

[TURBO]

Stats are fine, and they can be manipulated to prove any point you want, but our OF added to our punchless infield isn't going to do a lot of damage in the playoffs, we've seen it time and time again.  Our only hope is that our entire offense is clicking at just the right time.  That could happen of course, and we are due for that to happen at some point.

 

 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, TURBO said:

punchless infield

The Brewers 129 wRC+ at 2B is the best in MLB. The Dodgers are at an 87 wRC+ (22nd), the Cubs a 96 wRC+ (15th), the Braves have a 102 wRC+ (12th).

The Brewers 145 wRC+ at 1B is third in MLB. The Braves aren't far off at a 141 wRC+ (5th), the Dodgers are 9th with a 130 wRC+, while the Cubs are 20th with a 107 wRC+.

The Brewers 74 wRC+ at SS is 27th on the year, but has been considerably upgraded since Cooper Pratt (103 wRC+) came up. The Braves have been even worse with a 61 wRC+ (29th), while the Dodgers 89 wRC+ (17th) and Cubs 96 wRC+ (14th) are more middle of the pack.

The Brewers 83 wRC+ at 3B is 24th on the year, but that is mostly dragged down by 193 PA of 58 wRC+ from Rengifo. Ortiz has been fire at the hot corner with a 131 wRC+ over 92 PA there, while Hamilton's 90 wRC+ over his 170 PA at 3B is fine for a speedy #8/9 hitter. Dodgers 133 wRC+ (2nd) is best of the top NL contenders with the Cubs in 13th at a 102 wRC+, while the Braves and Austin Riley (86 wRC+) have hit worse than Bunty.

Put it all together and here are how those four infields stack up in a few different counting stats (manually computed the total infield Off | WAR | DRS | FRV so no thirty team rankings there) plus their combined wRC+ for all four spots...

BREWERS
1B: 79 R (4th) | 28.8 Off (1st) | 2.8 WAR (9th)
2B: 79 R (3rd) | 20.3 Off (1st) | 4.5 WAR (1st)
SS: 54 R (22nd) | -13.5 Off (27th) | 0.8 WAR (23rd)
3B: 47 R (24th) | -7.0 Off (20th) | 1.6 WAR (18th)
IF: 259 R (8th) | 28.6 Off | 9.7 WAR | 109 wRC+ (5th)
DEF: +30 DRS | +5 FRV
[first base defense (-7 DRS | -11 FRV) kills their WAR. Rengifo (-13.0 Off | -0.7 WAR) eats into the totals some too. DRS loves their work at 2B (+16), 3B (+13) and SS (+8) this year. FRV typically lagging behind at +9, +4, +3 for those same three positions (which also cuts into their WAR here since that is what FG uses as their defensive input). Quick look at BRef (5.2 Wins Above Average) has them as the best infield]

DODGERS
1B: 63 R (17th) | 18.1 Off (7th) | 2.9 WAR (6th)
2B: 57 R (17th) | -7.5 Off (22nd) | 1.5 WAR (18th)
SS: 62 R (15th) | -7.4 Off (19th) | 2.2 WAR (16th)
3B: 73 R (3rd) | 19.5 Off (3rd) | 4.1 WAR (2nd)
IF: 255 R (11th) | 22.7 Off | 10.7 WAR | 110 wRC+ (4th)
DEF: +23 DRS | +18 FRV
[worst second base production of the four teams, career worst year for Mookie (90 wRC+), and they are still the most Postseason Bona Fide Offense anyway, though BRef has them slightly behind the Brewers at 4.5 Wins Above Average on the year]

CUBS
1B: 54 R (25th) | 1.5 Off (22nd) | 1.5 WAR (19th)
2B: 58 R (14th) | 0.7 Off (12th) | 2.6 WAR (8th)
SS: 79 R (5th) | 2.7 Off (9th) | 3.6 WAR (5th)
3B: 64 R (12th) | 1.6 Off (14th) | 2.7 WAR (10th)
IF: 255 R (10th) | 6.5 Off | 10.4 WAR | 100 wRC+ (16th)
DEF: +18 DRS | +25 FRV
[solid across the board, but nothing spectacular with Bregman (112 wRC+), Busch (109 wRC+), Hoerner (94 wRC+), and Swanson (95 wRC+ before hitting the IL) getting the lions share of the reps starting all but 31 games for the Cubs infield. BRef says they have been 4.3 Wins Above Average]

BRAVES
1B: 89 R (1st) | 26.6 Off (4th) | 4.2 WAR (1st)
2B: 74 R (5th) | 0.7 Off (13th) | 1.7 WAR (15th)
SS: 55 R (21st) | -21.0 Off (29th) | 0.0 WAR (29th)
3B: 54 R (21st) | -8.4 Off (23rd) | 1.1 WAR (24th)
IF: 272 R (3rd) | -2.1 Off | 7.0 WAR | 99 wRC+ (18th)
DEF: +16 DRS | +4 FRV
[easily the worst infield of the four primary NL contenders, buoyed only by another monster season from Matt Olson (140 wRC+) plus a tread water one from Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+). BRef sees them as being 1.8 Wins Above Average so far]

[dlk9s]

I'd go with Sal. I think Lara is going to be really good, though, and would keep him on the team, rather than send him down to AAA.