sveumrules

In honor of Juan Martinez's first home run off the Complexes... 2025-26 Alexander Frias (306 PA) 358/441/517 (142 wRC+) 11.1 BB% | 17.0 K% | 24 SB / 10 CS 2025-26 Juan Martinez (372 PA) 336/460/561 (155 wRC+) 16.7 BB% | 11.1 K% | 46 SB / 4 CS Advantages Frias - younger, bigger, more projectable - has gotten some industry buzz Advantages Martinez - plate discipline (his 1.44 BB/K ratio is 4th of 1,483 minor leaguers with at least 350 PA last two years) - has a much less extreme BABIP (.368 vs .428 for Frias) - better current power (.226 ISO vs .158 for Frias) despite being shorter - higher up on the defensive spectrum - better base runner

Not a huge difference, but Misio had 12 postseason IP last year too so 141.1 IP total. That was after 71 IP in 2023, and 97 IP in 2024. Would guess they’ll keep giving him extra days between starts as needed (has made three starts on four days rest, ten on five days, and four on six days so far) and scale back some down the stretch too to try and keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason.

Over the last twelve days / thirteen games Brewers pitchers have thrown 119 IP (eleven more than any other team) with a 68 ERA- (2nd) and 87 FIP- (8th). Rotation with 69.1 IP (1st) of 74 ERA- | 88 FIP- (both 7th) while the bullpen has chipped in 49.2 IP (3rd) of 60 ERA- (4th) and 87 FIP- (7th). All told, the whole staff has stepped up to an MLB best 3.1 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.51 WPA to start this stretch. Batters have hit for a strong overall 114 wRC+ but only scored 4.62 R/G on account of the RISP struggles with 155 PA (1st) of 83 wRC+ (28th) shaking out to only 42 runs scored (11th) in those situations. To put those recent RISP struggles in context some, from the start of 2024 when Murphy took over thru June 24th of this year before this run of consecutive games the Brewers averaged 56 runs scored per 155 PA with RISP. 9 W - 4 L is impressive over any thirteen game stretch and I'll take it every time, but kinda crazy that they were just a couple well timed hits (that they've normally gotten over the last few years) away from 11 W - 2 L.

Andrew Fischer is one of 1,477 players with at least 350 PA since the start of last year in all of the minor leagues. Fischer's .355 ISO is first on the leaderboard, Spencer Jones is second with a .296 ISO. His 174 wRC+ is fourth below Mike Sirota and Kevin McGonigle at 182 each and just above Konnor Griffin with a 171 wRC+. Of the twenty players with at least a 150 wRC+, the next highest strikeout rate after Fischer's 31.3 K% is a guy named Parks Harber (23.9 K%) who is an older prospect in the Giants system. Of the next 34 guys on the leaderboard with a wRC+ in the 140's somewhere there is the aforementioned Jones (34.6 K%) and Nolan Schubart (33.7 K%) before it drops off to Drew Cavanaugh (26.2 K%) who is another older Giants prospect. Of the thirty players with at least 350 PA and a 145 wRC+ in all of MiLB over the last two years the Brewers have Fischer (174 wRC+), Adamczewski (157 wRC+), Adams (156 wRC+), Juan Martinez (153 wRC+), Ragsdale (150 wRC+), and Dinges (146 wRC+) taking up 20% of the spots.

9 W - 4 L to start the dreaded 18 games in 17 days (11 on the road) stretch.

Those five plus Drohan, Patrick, and Crow have started 78 of the Brewers 90 games so far this year, all in their Age 27 or younger season. Here are some of the Brewers results and ranks so far this year for SP in their Age 27 or younger season... 400 IP (3rd) | 130 K+ (1st) | 77 ERA- (2nd) | 80 FIP- (t-3rd) | 10.6 rWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 9.4) | 9.5 fWAR (1st, PIT is 2nd at 7.9) | +3.90 WPA (1st, SEA is 2nd at +2.47) | +48.66 RE24 (1st, LAD is 2nd at +31.59) If we expand it out to Age 28 season to include Ashby as the "old" young guy, plus switch from just SP to whole staff since some of those SP have been in swing roles (plus that loops in guys like Uribe and Hall) here are how the Brewers fare on that leaderboard... 639 IP (2nd) | 124 K+ (1st) | 76 ERA- (2nd) | 82 FIP- (t-1st) | 14.0 rWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 10.7) | 12.2 fWAR (1st, CLE is 2nd at 9.5) | +5.85 WPA (2nd, TOR is 1st at +6.24) | +81.99 RE24 (1st, TOR is 2nd at +48.43)

Run Prevention has always been the Boat Floater (including this year) but by virtue of starting from a better position than the offense it has had less room for improvement over the years. 2017-22 Full Stearns / Counsell 481 W - 390 L | .552 W% (7th) 4.24 RA/G (7th) | 4.55 RS/G (16th) 92 ERA- (6th) | 95 FIP- (7th) | 101 wRC+ (14th) 2023-24 Arnold / Murphy Transition 185 W - 139 L | .571 W% (4th) 3.98 RA/G (2nd) | 4.65 RS/G (12th) 88 ERA- (1st) | 99 FIP- (14th) | 99 wRC+ (18th) 2025-26 Full Arnold / Murphy 153 W - 98 L | .610 W% (1st) 3.82 RA/G (1st) | 5.02 RS/G (3rd) 83 ERA- (1st) | 90 FIP- (2nd) | 106 wRC+ (5th) Year over year from 2023 to present their RS/G has increased by a total of +0.60 runs per game while their RA/G has also decreased year over year since 2023, but only by a total of -0.34 runs per game. Both sides have upped their respective talent levels contributing to the increase and magnitude of Blowout games these last two seasons versus past iterations, but the offense going from middling to almost as good as the Run Prevention has contributed around 64% of the overall improvement in run differential since 2023 versus 36% for the Run Prevention side going from really good to even better & now with the peripherals to match.

Had to be added to the 40 after signing his extension.

Assuming Hamilton has the minimum ten day stay, Vaughn wouldn't need to play 3B regularly. They would likely just give Ortiz all the playing time there for the next seven games with Vaughn/Frelick as emergency options.

If the Brewers medical staff thinks Hamilton can get by with the minimum ten day IL stay that would take him right up to the end of the All Star Break and he could be activated then for the first game back.

Obviously priority #1 in the minors is player development, but looks like the Brewers are having another good summer of team success organizationally too... Giants 250 W - 174 L (.590 W%) Rays 236 W - 188 L (.557 W%) Brewers 232 W - 188 L (.552 W%) Rockies 235 W - 192 L (.550 W%) Nationals 212 W - 180 L (.541 W%) Dodgers 227 W - 194 L (.539 W%) Interesting mix of teams in that top half dozen with a trio of annual developmental powerhouses (TBR, MIL, LAD), then a couple of the worst teams in MLB this year (SFG, COL), plus the recently resurgent Nationals after losing more games than any non-Rockies team from 2020 to 2025. Here is how they compare based on the average age of their hitters and pitchers at the four non-complex level affiliates... Brewers Hit (22.1) Pitch (23.2) Rays Hit (22.9) Pitch (24.1) Nationals Hit (22.9) Pitch (24.3) Dodgers Hit (23.1) Pitch (23.9) Giants Hit (23.4) Pitch (24.7) Rockies Hit (23.6) Pitch (24.5) Brewers Farm Records from the recent-ish past... 2025 369 W - 345 L (.517 W%) 2024 389 W - 320 L (.549 W%) 2023 369 W - 334 L (.535 W%) 2022 396 W - 372 L (.516 W%) 2021 350 W - 354 L (.497 W%)

There are a few different factors contributing to Sanchez having higher WAR on BRef than Misio. The first is straight up quantity. Sanchez has 16.1 extra IP and WAR is a counting stat so that gives him an edge there. The others have more to do with the adjustments that BRef makes in an attempt to account for quality of opponents and team defense. Sanchez has faced a tougher slate (4.72 vs 4.57 RA9opp) with a worse defense behind him (-0.26 vs +0.20 RA9def) so he gets extra credit while Misio gets dinged some in the BRef calcs. Their intentions are understandable, but I think those different adjustments just end up making things more convoluted. FanGraphs is much more straight up with just innings and FIP for their fWAR or innings and RA9 for their rWAR. Misio 104 IP of 35 ERA- | 46 FIP- 4.7 rWAR | 4.3 fWAR Sanchez 120.1 IP of 61 ERA- | 62 FIP- 3.9 rWAR | 3.8 fWAR

I was looking at some of their W/L splits on BRef today and I think the year over year progression on margin of victory/defeat does a pretty good job illustrating how much they have been improving from a talent standpoint... 2023 (92 W - 70 L | +81 RDiff) OneRun: 29 W - 18 L | +11 runs TwotoFour: 44 W - 37 L | +33 runs FivePlus: 19 W - 15 L | +37 runs [47 OneRun games represented 29% of the season total, while 34 FivePlus were only 21%. The Brewers 4.49 R/G was only 17th in MLB for the season so they needed to do well in the games with closer margins because their offense wasn't capable of producing many blowouts or winning them at a top end clip] 2024 (93 W - 69 L | +136 RDiff) OneRun: 28 W - 25 L | +3 runs TwotoFour: 36 W - 34 L | +2 runs FivePlus: 29 W - 10 L | +131 runs [53 OneRun games represented 32.7% of the season total, while 39 FivePlus were 24.1%. The Brewers increased their offensive output to 4.80 R/G (6th) which helped them to a slightly higher percentage of blowout games with a much improved W% & margin of victory in those games as well] 2025 (97 W - 65 L | +172 RDIFF) OneRun: 28 W - 20 L | +8 runs TwotoFour: 32 W - 29 L | +10 runs FivePlus: 37 W - 16 L | +154 runs [48 OneRun games represented 29.6% of the season total, while 53 FivePlus represented 32.7%. The Brewers again increased their offensive output to 4.98 R/G (4th) which helped them to a much higher percentage of blowout games where they again dominated their opponents] 2026 (56 W - 33 L | +128 RDiff) OneRun: 14 W - 12 L | +2 runs TwotoFour: 21 W - 14 L | +22 runs FivePlus: 21 W - 7 L | +104 runs [26 OneRun games represent 29.2% of the season total so far, while 28 FivePlus represent 31.4%. The Brewers scoring is up yet again at 5.09 R/G (4th) while the pitchers have also shaved a quarter run per game from last year at 3.65 RA/G (2nd) which has again allowed them to have a high percentage of blowout games that they are winning at an improved clip by larger per game margins] The percentage of OneRun games remaining relatively static year to year while the percentage of blowouts takes a big jump between 2024/2025 is a pretty good indicator of how much the talent level has been improving. In 2023 they made more hay in the low margin games than they did in their blowouts because they weren't that much better than their opponents. In 2024 they made almost the entirety of their hay over their 39 blowout games. These last two years the magnitude and frequency of those blowouts has taken another couple two tree steps forward.

No doubt Freeman & Olson are the more established names at first, but the actual hitting numbers this year are remarkably close at a 136 wRC+ (8th) for the Braves, a 143 wRC+ (5th) for the Dodgers, and a 145 wRC+ (3rd) for the Brewers from their respective first basemen so far. Olson (+3 DRS | +3 FRV) and Freeman (+1 DRS | +2 FRV) have much better numbers afield than Bauers (-5 DRS | -5 FRV) and Vaughn (-1 DRS | -1 FRV) though. The seasonal OF numbers favor the Dodgers (110 wRC+ | 5.3 WAR) over the Braves (106 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR) and Brewers (105 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR). But the Brewers also have some pretty severe OF splits with a 75 wRC+ from their outfielders thru May 3rd but a much more robust 123 wRC+ from their outfielders since May 4th when Chourio and Vaughn returned (which also freed up Bauers for more OF time with one start on the grass thru May 3rd, but nineteen since May 4th).

He got it in the cheek (of his buttocks)

There were plenty of rumblings and grumblings around each of Brandon Woodruff's last two contracts totaling $37.525M for the 2024 through 2026 seasons. He has now made an nice even twenty starts making him one of 165 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years. Some of his results and rankings on that leaderboard... 106.1 IP (161st) | 68 WHIP+ (1st) | 139 FB+ (1st) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 210 K/BB+ (3rd) | 136 K+ (11th) | 64 BB+ (18th) | 71 ERA- (18th) | 75 FIP- (21st) | 95 HR+ (67th) | 92.6 MPH average fastball (125th) As far as things like "luck" go, Woodruff's 86 xFIP- (34th) thinks that his literal sky high 53.0% fly ball rate should be yielding more than his current 9.3% HR/FB ratio (20th). On the other hand, all the lasers and stuff over at StatCast think that Woodruff should have an expected ERA of 2.44 which is thee best in all of MLB last two years ahead of Misio (2.52), Shohei (2.63), Wheeler (2.64), Skenes (2.69), Skubal (2.84), and every other SP with at least 100 IP. The Brewers have gone 15 W - 5 L for an easy to compute .750 W% in his twenty starts. Has Woodruff done enough to earn his paycheck, or much like the Brewers as a whole is that wholly dependent on whatever happens or doesn't in October?

Not sure why you would want to exclude his results from last year with the Brewers since that is when his turnaround began? The Brewers will certainly be taking that information into consideration when deciding whether to tender him or not, as will other teams if he ends up non-tendered. White Sox 46.4 HardHit% | 9.3 Barrel% | 105.4 EV90 .322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA Brewers 45.4 HardHit% | 8.2 Barrel% | 104.9 EV90 .369 xwOBA | .386 wOBA So if Vaughn's HH%, B%, and EV90 have all declined how have his xwOBA and wOBA increased so much? Because we also have to consider things like his batted ball distribution in terms of both type and directionality. White Sox (98 BABIP+) 92 LD+ | 103 GB+ | 101 FB+ 90 Pull+ | 104 Cent+ | 111 Oppo+ Brewers (117 BABIP+) 114 LD+ | 98 GB+ | 95 FB+ 89 Pull+ | 115 Cent+ | 97 Oppo+ I'm not saying Vaughn is a true talent 117 BABIP+ kind of guy, but over the last two years league average on line drives is a .701 BA and 353 wRC+ so cranking his raw line drive rate from 18.2% with the White Sox (219th of 251 hitters min. 1500 PA from 2021-25) up to 22.4% with the Brewers (39th of 299 hitters min. 400 PA from 2025-26) will naturally lead to across the board increases. His lowly pull rate has remained about the same, but he's traded a bunch of opposite field contact for up the middle contact. This again should naturally lead to an increase in production since up the middle contact (.312 BA | 106 wRC+ last two years) gets slightly better results league wide than opposite field contact (.302 BA | 100 wRC+ last two years). Of course Vaughn is due for regression, his 149 wRC+ with the Brewers is tied with Junior Caminero for 9th in MLB since July 7th of last year. But he has also fundamentally changed who he is as a hitter in many ways since he was a White Sox so whatever regression he does incur should still leave him well above his results with the South Siders. His current .369 xwOBA since joining the Brewers would shake out to around a 136 wRC+ or so over that stretch right between Turang (.366 wOBA | 134 wRC+) and Bauers (.371 wOBA | 137 wRC+).

Some guys from 2021 to 2025 (min. 1,500 PA) sorted by K%+ that were still able to top a 100 wRC+... Oneil Cruz (1836 PA) 97 AVG+ | 124 ISO+ | 104 wRC+ 115 BB+ | 145 K+ Eugenio Suarez (3424 PA) 93 AVG+ | 138 ISO+ | 110 wRC+ 108 BB+ | 134 K+ Elly De La Cruz (2120 PA) 104 AVG+ | 122 ISO+ | 109 wRC+ 109 BB+ | 133 K+ Giancarlo Stanton (2282 PA) 97 AVG+ | 155 ISO+ | 121 wRC+ 120 BB+ | 133 K+ Kyle Schwarber (3651 PA) 95 AVG+ | 179 ISO+ | 137 wRC+ 174 BB+ | 131 K+ Tyler O'Neill (2027 PA) 98 AVG+ | 134 ISO+ | 115 wRC+ 114 BB+ | 130 K+ Cal Raleigh (2707 PA) 91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ | 120 wRC+ 132 BB+ | 126 K+ Brent Rooker (2291 PA) 104 AVG+ | 143 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ 110 BB+ | 125 K+ Some of the other 3TO guys mentioned upthread at peak... 2008-10 Branyan (1085 PA) 93 AVG+ | 174 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ 130 BB+ | 171 K+ 2012-15 Chris Davis (2430 PA) 100 AVG+ | 184 ISO+ | 136 wRC+ 132 BB+ | 157 K+ 2017-21 Joey Gallo (2248 PA) 83 AVG+ | 167 ISO+ | 117 wRC+ 179 BB+ | 162 K+ 2026 Murakami (246 PA) 99 AVG+ | 206 ISO+ | 156 wRC+ 197 BB+ | 146 K+

Vaughn White Sox (2451 PA) 248/303/407 (97 wRC+) 6.2 BB% | 20.4 K% .322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA Vaughn Brewers (402 PA) 319/394/506 (150 wRC+) 10.4 BB% | 12.9 K% .369 xwOBA | .387 wOBA

Boeve has played LF the most this year (27 starts) followed by 1B (17 starts), 3B (15 starts) and DH (13 starts). Looking like more of a corner utility profile than an everyday 3B.

Hasn’t made its way to the leaderboards yet, but the individual FanGraphs player pages have ERA- and FIP- for the pitchers to help contextualize the drastic changes in offensive environments. Just for one example, Southern League has jumped over a full run per game from 4.01 in 2025 to 5.10 so far this year. Last year Jaron DeBerry had a 3.62 ERA | 3.72 FIP at Biloxi that shook out to a 96 ERA- | 97 FIP-. This year DeBerry is back in Biloxi with a 4.22 ERA | 5.08 FIP that has shaken out to an 85 ERA- | 100 FIP-.

Pyrite Pirates was right there for them

The Brewers power numbers have been trending up since Chourio and Vaughn returned to the lineup... 2023 (.146 ISO | 28th) 2024 (.155 ISO | 18th) 2025 (.145 ISO | 25th) thru May 3rd (.115 ISO | 29th) since May 4th (.160 ISO | 15th) Last year's Blue Jays had a .162 ISO that ranked 12th in MLB. History so far is of increasingly less relevance as the Brewers demonstrably improve season over season. This is the 8th full season of the Brewers postseason run going back to 2018. The Dodgers won 33 more games than the second best team in MLB from 2013 to 2019, they won zero World Series over those seven years. They broke through in the 2020 weirdened season, then needed four more full seasons to finally win a World Series in their 11th try after a 162 game season. The OG Daddy Warbucks Yankees have been to (& lost) one World Series in the last 15 full seasons since their 2009 WS win. When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else a decade plus to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series after a full season, the Brewers being in the 8th year of their current window is another sign to me that despite all their recent success they are still just getting started.

The Brewers low point of the season so far was on April 25th. After losing to the Pirates in extra innings their record dropped to 13 W - 13 L. Since then, their 40 W - 18 L record is the best in MLB. The Brewers low point of last season was on May 17th. After getting shutout by the Twins they were all the way down at 21 W - 25 L. Since then, over their last 200 games, their 129 W - 71 L record is the best in MLB. But we don't even need all that. Even with their worst somewhat recent-ish stretch of play included, going all the way back to the start of the 2025 season (246 total games), their 150 W - 96 L record is the best in MLB. Heck, if we want to stretch it out even further, and roll the clock all the way back to August 6th of 2024 the Brewers 181 W - 116 L record is the best in MLB (by 1/2 game over the Dodgers) over their last 297 games. Below are how some of their category results and rankings have changed over each of those stretches. I'm by no means saying the Brewers results over their last 58 games are indicative of their elusive True Talent Level as a team (few teams in MLB history have been .690 W% good for a full season) but I think it's pretty clear from these numbers in varying degrees of micro, plus the year over year improvement going all the way back to 2022 in the macro, (not to mention one of thee most highly regarded minor league systems in MLB), that even with all the recent success the arrow is somehow still pointing upward. RS/G 297 (5.03 | 4th) 246 (5.04 | 3rd) 200 (5.24 | 1st) 58 (5.29 | 1st) wRC+ 297 (106 | 7th) 246 (106 | 6th) 200 (111 | 2nd) 58 (112 | 3rd) Batting Average 297 (.254 | 3rd) 246 (.257 | 2nd) 200 (.263 | 1st) 58 (.265 | 1st) On Base Percentage 297 (.331 | 2nd) 246 (.335 | 1st) 200 (.341 | 1st) 58 (.343 | 1st) Isolated Slugging 297 (.149 | 20th) 246 (.144 | 26th) 200 (.150 | 24th) 58 (.153 | 20th) BB% 297 (9.7 | 3rd) 246 (9.7 | 4th) 200 (9.8 | 2nd) 58 (10.2 | 3rd) K% 297 (21.4 | 10th) 246 (20.6 | 5th) 200 (20.3 | 3rd) 58 (20.8 | 9th) GroundBall% 297 (45.4 | 1st) 246 (45.8 | 1st) 200 (45.6 | 1st) 58 (47.0 | 1st) xwOBA 297 (.315 | 17th) 246 (.316 | 14th) 200 (.321 | 8th) 58 (.325 | 6th) Actual wOBA 297 (.322 | 6th) 246 (.323 | 5th) 200 (.331 | t-1st) 58 (.335 | 3rd) RA/G 297 (3.82 | 1st) 246 (3.82 | 1st) 200 (3.68 | 1st) 58 (3.31 | 1st) ERA 297 (3.49 | 1st) 246 (3.51 | 1st) 200 (3.36 | 1st) 58 (3.10 | 1st) xERA 297 (3.66 | 1st) 246 (3.67 | 2nd) 200 (3.51 | 1st) 58 (3.07 | 1st) FIP 297 (3.78 | 1st) 246 (3.78 | 2nd) 200 (3.64 | 1st) 58 (3.38 | 1st) K% 297 (24.8 | 1st) 246 (24.7 | t-1st) 200 (25.6 | 1st) 58 (28.2 | 1st) K/BB Ratio 297 (2.84 | 7th) 246 (2.78 | 8th) 200 (2.96 | 5th) 58 (3.23 | 4th) HR/9 297 (1.04 | 5th) 246 (1.02 | 4th) 200 (0.99 | 2nd) 58 (0.96 | 3rd) Batting Average 297 (.224 | 1st) 246 (.224 | 1st) 200 (.220 | 1st) 58 (.206 | 1st) WHIP 297 (1.20 | t-2nd) 246 (1.21 | 5th) 200 (1.18 | t-1st) 58 (1.11 | 1st) LOB% 297 (75.5 | 1st) 246 (75.4 | 1st) 200 (76.1 | 1st) 58 (78.2 | 1st) HardHit% 297 (38.2 | 2nd) 246 (37.9 | 1st) 200 (37.4 | 1st) 58 (34.3 | 1st) Barrel% 297 (7.4 | 3rd) 246 (7.3 | t-1st) 200 (7.2 | 1st) 58 (5.9 | 1st) Run Differential Per Game 297 (+1.21 | 1st) 246 (+1.22 | 1st) 200 (+1.56 | 1st) 58 (+1.98 | 1st)

Hasn't been very good lately. 436 PA of 84 wRC+ last year, 310 PA of 96 wRC+ so far this year with a career high strikeout rate. Defense is still good at +8 DRS | + 3 FRV last two years, but nothing like prime Arenado that averaged around +16 DRS | +11 FRV per season over the first decade of his career. That'd be an upgrade over our current 3B production on the year with a 63 wRC+ (28th) and 0.1 WAR (25th) so far, but he's also due $15M next year which the Brewers probably wouldn't want to add to their books with guys like Made and Fischer in the wings. DBacks are also hovering around 20% Playoff Odds at both of FanGraphs and PECOTA so still kind of straddling that buy/sell line depending how things play out for them and teams like MIA, STL, PIT, and SDP over the next month.