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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. August 4th was the first day Yelich hit fifth and since then he has hit fifth or sixth for 15 of the 16 games he has started (other game was clean up). Doesn't include tonight's 2 for 3 with a double and walk (which shakes out to a 369 wRC+ for the evening) but before that he was at 71 PA of 262/310/415 (100 wRC+) with a 5.6 BB% and 22.5 K% since that 08/04 date. StatCast thinks he has been unlucky with a .356 expected wOBA (about a 127 wRC+) but only a .316 actual wOBA during that stretch, Over the 276 PA before that (after returning from injury for good on May 17th through August 3rd) he was at 276 PA of 221/313/367 (90 wRC+) with a 10.9 BB% and 26.8 K%. StatCast wasn't all that impressed with a .311 expected wOBA and a .302 actual wOBA for that stretch. Obviously small, sliced up samples but that is a pretty big drop in walk and strikeout rates recently with it looking like Yelich has increased his swing / contact rates from 43.1% and 71.3% during the 05/17 to 08/03 stretch up to 47.1% and 75.7% for this more recent stretch hitting lower in the order.
  2. Would be such a cool story if somehow Woodruff made it back for the Postseason and was able to contribute to some wins. Out of 182 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years Woody comes in at... 138 FB%+ (1st) | 24.2 LA (1st) | 2.45 xERA (2nd) | 68 WHIP+ (2nd) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 211 K/BB+ (5th) | 14.7 IFFB% (7th) | 138 K+ (10th) | 77 FIP- (18th) | 35.2 HardHit% (18th) | 65 BB+ (19th) | 75 ERA- (26th) Only real blemishes on his record from a performance standpoint have been mediocre home run (99 HR+) and strand (101 LOB+) rates. Obviously would have loved it if his shoulder had help up for more innings, but his results when on the mound have been pretty remarkable with a heater diminished four to five MPH from peak form.
  3. One of them was Patrick as the bulk guy (4 IP | 4 ER) on April 22nd after Hall opened with two scoreless. Chad started his next two appearances, and once again on May 27th, but has 41 relief appearances versus only six starts on the season, so kinda? Another was Brandon Sproat (3.2 IP | 4 ER) on April 4th in the second game of a double header after Logan Henderson (2 IP | 2 ER) started the game as an opener / 27th man call up. The other six - Megill (x2), Zerpa (x2), Anderson, and Uribe - were more traditional reliever blows the game type scenarios.
  4. Will be an interesting follow for sure. Could see the case for trying to slip him through since he is still so far away, but could also see a pitching starved team plucking him and trying to slip him through the season as the last man in the bullpen. Could also be a candidate for Organizational Pitcher of the Year with the season he is having... 115 IP of 4.15 ERA | 4.49 FIP (78 ERA- | 85 FIP-) 126 K (3rd in MWL) | 51 BB (10.2 BB%) or maybe Jaron DeBerry... 119 IP of 4.31 ERA | 5.01 FIP (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-) 132 K (most in SL) | 60 BB (11.7 BB%) dark horse Braylon Owens... 93 IP of 4.04 ERA | 3.81 FIP (78 ERA- | 73 FIP-) 29.9 K% (best in system min. 60 IP) | 43 BB (10.9 BB%)
  5. There are 42 players (before tonight) with at least 1,000 PA as a Brewers minor leaguer going back to Castillo's first season in 2021. Luis took his 1,600th PA this evening which puts him at #11 on the list, and he should pass Wes Clarke in 10th place with 1,618 PA by season's end. With 2,196 PA it looks like Eduardo Garcia just recently overtook Mayor of Biloxi Zavier Warren (2,189 PA) for the Number One Spot.
  6. Through the first 26 games when the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L the relievers had some of the following ranks among MLB bullpens... 8 L (3rd most) | 109 AVG+ (27th) | -1.50 WPA (25th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) | 102 ERA- (16th) | 88 FIP- (7th) Over the 109 games since then and before tonight the relievers have these rankings among MLB bullpens... 11 L (fewest) | 87 AVG+ (1st) | +8.58 WPA (2nd) | 106 LOB+ (2nd) | 73 ERA- (3rd) | 84 FIP- (2nd) Put it all together and in 2024 the bullpen had +13.14 WPA (2nd), in 2025 it was +5.03 WPA (10th), so far this year it is +7.08 WPA (2nd), and in total from 2024 through 2026 they are at +25.25 WPA (2nd) from their relievers. CLE relievers are first with +28.35 WPA over that stretch while the Braves bullpen is third at +19.59 WPA.
  7. Do not. I normally just go to BRef and compile manually for stuff like that. Would imagine it would be pretty easy to whip up some kind of runs scored / runs allowed matrix with minimal coding skills, kind of surprised there isn't an easily accessible one out there somewhere. Looks like the Brewers have had 43 games this year where they scored two or three runs with a 14 W - 29 L (.326 W%) record in those games. Some other NL contender records when scoring two or three runs in a game this season... LAD (11 W - 26 L | .297 W%) ATL (13 W - 16 L | .448 W%) CHC (9 W - 16 L | .360 W%) PHI (11 W - 15 L | .423 W%) SDP (12 W - 29 L | .293 W%) ARI (10 W - 19 L | .345 W%) Throw in another 11 losses when the Brewers have scored zero or one runs in a game and that leaves a 70 W - 11 L record (.864 W%) when they've score four or more runs this year.
  8. 19 Double Digit Games = 232 Runs Scored = 12.21 R/G = 19 W - 0 L 117 Single Digit Games = 488 Runs Scored = 4.17 R/G = 58 W - 59 L 10 Double Digit Games = 138 Runs Scored = 13.80 R/G = 10 W - 0 L 125 Single Digit Games = 536 Runs Scored = 4.29 R/G = 74 W - 51 L
  9. With headliners like Corbin Burnes (167 IP of 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Brandon Woodruff (179 IP of 61 ERA- | 69 FIP-), and Freddy Peralta (144 IP of 67 ERA- | 73 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Josh Hader (58 IP of 29 ERA- | 39 FIP-) and Devin Williams (54 IP of 59 ERA- | 66 FIP-), the 2021 Brewers pitching staff posted an 83 ERA- and 87 FIP- that are the lowest full season marks in Franchise History. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brett Anderson (100 ERA- | 103 FIP-), Adrian Houser (101 FIP-), and Aaron Ashby (108 ERA-) posted an ERA or FIP that was average or worse. Here we are five years later and now its headliners like MISIO (151 IP of 42 ERA- | 51 FIP-), Kyle Harrison (103 IP of 68 ERA- | 79 FIP-), and Logan Henderson (76 IP of 60 ERA- | 79 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Trevor Megill (51 IP of 55 ERA- | 42 FIP-) and Abner Uribe (48 IP of 50 ERA- | 74 FIP-) that are helping the 2026 Brewers put up an 82 ERA- and 85 FIP- so far. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brandon Sproat (128 ERA- | 122 FIP-), Robert Gasser (112 ERA- | 107 FIP-), and Grant Anderson (103 FIP-) have posted a worse than average ERA or FIP. It's happening again.
  10. Not sure if Fischer is a legit third baseman, he's made 18 errors in 84 games at the hot corner this year and has started his last 14 games in the field at first base. The monthly PA splits for the 13th man on the roster have been 22, 23, 39, 29, and only 15 so far in August. Considering the 14th man is likely to play even less than that (Rhys Hoskins got 10 PA as the 14th Man last September, Monasterio got 14 PA as the 14th Man in September 2024) I'd guess the Brewers will want prospects like Fischer or Adams to continue getting regular reps in the minors and just call up someone like Naylor or Lockridge who is already on the 40 Man.
  11. More or less the same thing that the Giants got after we traded him to them in 2022, and the same thing the Rays got when they sold him to the White Sox for cash considerations this past December. The good news items relevant to Tristan Peters would be that (1) the individual who traded him away is now employed by the Mets, and (2) the Brewers have the best record in MLB this year (again) playing well above anyone's reasonable expectations entering the season (hey, kinda like Tristan Peters is) and have a future OF stocked with options like Chourio, Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, Adamczewski, Payne, Strosnider, Antunez, etc. If the Brewers had 71 or 72 wins fighting with the Padres and Diamondbacks for the last Wild Card spot looking up at the Cubs in the Central (like the season was supposed to play out according to the experts) this would be a lot more concerning to me, but given the reality we are living in is markedly better than that (again) it's more of a Way To Go Tristan from me.
  12. Also kind of funny that one play where the literal Little League infield played a major role is used as a metaphor for Hamilton's defensive shortcomings, but no mention of the rare 5-3 double play (requiring both his above average range and athleticism for a 3B) that he pulled off in very the same game.
  13. Hamilton has +7 DRS versus 0 FRV at 3B so far this year and this is a case where I think the truth is probably closer to what DRS is coming up with. As a whole DRS says the Brewers have saved 41 runs (7th) for the season, but FRV says only two runs saved (14th). Considering their 3.56 FIP is the lowest in MLB and they've still managed to shave 0.14 runs off of that to get to a 3.42 ERA (and from watching the games) I'd guess that DRS is doing a better job capturing their defensive performance this year (again). Going back to 2023 they've shaved an MLB best 0.38 runs per game from their 3.99 FIP (6th) to their 3.61 ERA (1st). They've demonstrated a pretty steadfast commitment to the defense as a key element of the run prevention symbiosis. Do we think it's more likely the Brewers internal metrics are spitting out results closer to their +175 DRS over that time or their +114 FRV? Both totals rank 3rd in MLB over that stretch so it's mostly just a matter of scale, about 0.28 runs per game in the estimation of DRS, or about 0.18 runs per game in the estimation of FRV. With +61 DRS versus +17 FRV for his career, Brice Turang accounts for 72% of the 61 run difference between the Brewers team DRS and FRV since 2023 all by himself.
  14. How deep is the Brewers minor league infield pool? They mentioned ten prospects in the article who are all in the org Top Twenty and you could still make a whole other infield out of intriguing guys they have outside the Top 25... 1B Bitonti (#26 | 434 PA of 126 wRC+ at A+ | 22 HR / 22 SB) 2B O'Rae (UR | 394 PA of 113 wRC+ at AA | 50 SB) SS Dickinson (UR | 447 PA of 127 RC+ at A+ | 51 SB) 3B Matos (UR | 228 PA of 149 wRC+ in DSL | 10 HR / 19 SB) UT Ortuno (UR | 455 PA of 108 wRC+ at A | 37 SB)
  15. Innings shouldn't be too big of a concern at 116 IP in 2024, 141 IP last year, and 107 IP so far this year after today. Maybe seeing if the stuff plays up a little bit in shorter outings, or maybe just a function of the doubleheader today?
  16. Looks like the link embedded in the article is still going to the Friday game that Brailyn didn't play in. He's in there for yesterday.
  17. 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year Tyson Hardin has taken a step forward working his way up to AAA with a 72 FIP- for the season and getting some T100 recognition. After missing all of last year to injury guys like Cameron Wagoner (34 IP of 63 FIP-) and Josh Knoth (68 IP of 77 FIP-) have had nice comeback seasons. Maybe not steps forward necessarily, but Bishop Letson (75 IP of 93 FIP-) and JD Thompson (41 IP of 78 FIP-) have both pitched well enough to maintain their respective prospect statuses. Undrafted and low dollar signings like Jack Seppings (64 IP of 85 FIP-), Braylon Owens (93 IP of 73 FIP-), and Jaron DeBerry (108 IP of 100 FIP-) have pitched their way to the upper levels, and even onto the back end of the BF Top 20 in DeBerry's case. At the lower levels guys like Wande Torres (104 IP of 88 FIP-), Ethan Dorchies (107 IP of 97 FIP-), Jayden Dubanewicz (69 IP of 92 FIP-), Andrew Healy (69 IP of 83 FIP-), Jose Meneses (53 IP of 61 FIP-), Daniel Corniel (43 IP of 89 FIP-), Miqueas Mercedes (66 IP of 87 ERA-), Diustin Mayorquin (58 IP of 92 FIP-), Derlin Garcia (56 IP of 75 FIP-), Raymond Sarmiento (48 IP of 78 FIP-), Alexander Mercedes (34 IP of 73 FIP-) and Paul Hoff (44 IP of 66 FIP-) have all had productive seasons while being considerably younger than their competition for the most part. Obviously this is about the minor leagues, but the Major League staff has allowed the 2nd fewest runs per game while having the youngest average age per BRef with all of Misio, Henderson, Ashby, and Uribe coming up through the system. Other relative youngsters like Drohan, Harrison, Patrick, Gasser, and Hall (& Priester last year) were acquired while still prospect eligible or with some meat left on the bone for the pitching brain trust to work with. Even with some ugly ERAs in the minor leagues it would be pretty hard to argue that many organizations have the top to bottom pitching depth of the Brewers, especially considering the majority of the MLB staff is still under team control for years to come, and the Brewers have signed almost twice as many High School pitchers as any other team over the last four drafts.
  18. For his career Abbott is at 553 IP of 81 ERA- | 99 FIP-. Out of 85 pitchers with at least 400 IP over the last four seasons the -0.78 run gap between his 3.58 ERA and 4.36 FIP is the second largest behind only Shota Imanaga (3.43 ERA | 4.33 FIP) and just ahead of Jose Berrios (3.79 ERA | 4.44 FIP). If his mediocre peripherals (95 K+ | 103 BB+ | 109 HR+ | 97 AVG+) were more in line with his run prevention I'd be fine classifying him as a #2, but most thought Peralta was barely a #2 in the grand scheme of things and he had 516 IP of 81 ERA- | 93 FIP- (3.40 ERA | 3.88 FIP) over his last three years with the Brewers while also running a top end strikeout rate (130 K+ | 6th highest from 2023 to 2025) and being one of the hardest pitchers to get a hit off of (85 AVG+ | 4th lowest from 2023 to 2025). Stewart's raw power numbers will naturally be inflated hitting at GABP. All that only shakes out to a 114 wRC+ so far this year (115 for his career) and he is looking like a long term 1B where league average wRC+ has been 117, 109, 107, 111, 111, and 113 the last six seasons. Still plenty of time to improve for sure, but so far he has 2.5 WAR in 615 career PA which is more of a solid starter than any kind of star. If that is your second best player you are going to need a whole lot more depth than the Reds currently have with their 5.5 WAR (30th in MLB, 1.3 wins below even the Rockies) from their position players entirely accounted for by EDLC (3.6 WAR over 491 PA) and Sal (2.0 WAR over 557 PA). The rest of their position players have combined to put up -0.1 WAR over 3,773 PA.
  19. Brewers have now signed 21 High School Pitchers going back to the 2023 Draft. Was curious to see how that number compared to the other 29 teams so clicked around through BRef and it looks like 20 of the teams had five or fewer HSPs signed with two teams coming in at zero (HOU and STL), plus the Mariners with just one (Ryan Sloan). Only three other teams have cracked double digits at CLE (12), ATL (10), and LAA (11 with seven HSPs in 2025 alone).
  20. Have they promoted the young kids too quickly? Maybe, maybe not, only time will tell. At the moment the Major League Brewers have the youngest staff, with most of the pitchers under team control for multiple years still, and are allowing the 2nd fewest runs per game in MLB, so whatever they are doing is working at the highest levels. Could be wrong, but also believe Biloxi already secured a playoff spot by winning their division for the first half of the season.
  21. For the season Biloxi is kind of like the AA version of the Washington Nationals...5.74 runs scored per game is best in the Southern League, 5.75 runs allowed per game is the worst in the Southern League. One big factor is that they have the youngest staff in the league (22.9 average age), second youngest is 23.9 and league average is 24,6. Another is that guys like Tyson Hardin, Brett Wichrowski, Cameron Wagoner, Will Childers, Jack Seppings, and Mark Manfredi were all promoted to Nashville at some point. As for the rest of the non-Complex affiliates...Wilson is the youngest staff (20.2 average) versus 21.5 second youngest and 22.0 league average in the Carolina League & are 9th of 12 teams in runs allowed per game. Wisconsin is the youngest staff (21.7 average age) versus 21.9 second youngest and 22.8 league average in the Midwest League & are 8th of 12 teams in runs allowed per game. Nashville is the most age appropriate at 27.2 average age versus a 27.2 average age in the International League and are 2nd of 20 teams in runs allowed per game. Brewers have the youngest hitters in the Carolina, Wisconsin and International Leagues also, plus the second youngest by a fraction in the Southern League so reading between the lines it seems like they believe challenging their players against older, more experienced competition is best for their own development. Wilson (61 W - 53 L), Wisconsin (61 W - 51 L), and Nashville (66 W - 57 L) plus both DSL squads have all posted winning records even with the abundant youth (& mostly less than stellar pitching) proliferating across the levels.
  22. When yr the first team to 80 wins, and the only team yet to lose 50 games, you might just have the best record in MLB by a couple two tree games.
  23. Somewhere along the line I saw Coco Crisp (5'10 / 185 lbs / switch hitting CF) thrown out there as a comp for the shape that Lara's career could possibly take. Through age 30 (Lara's last team option year) Coco put up 3,779 PA of 95 wRC+ with +37.5 BsR and +68.9 DEF for 21.3 WAR. Batting profile was 91 BB+ | 81 K+ | 103 AVG+ | 84 ISO+. Here's a few other players that made being short and not having much power work because they were fast and really dood defenders with strike zone discipline during the Thirty Team Era (with their stats thru age 30)... Brett Gardner (2864 PA) 104 wRC+ | +38.8 BsR | +61.5 DEF | 21.7 WAR 122 BB+ | 100 K+ | 102 AVG+ | 86 ISO+ Shane Victorino (3629 PA) 107 wRC+ | +35.8 BsR | +36.0 DEF | 21.9 WAR 87 BB+ | 66 K+ | 105 AVG+ | 103 ISO+ Denard Span (4001 PA) 105 wRC+ | +25.4 BsR | +33.1 DEF | 22.4 WAR 104 BB+ | 64 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 71 ISO+ Michael Bourn (3941 PA) 92 wRC+ | +60.6 BsR | +59.0 DEF | 20.9 WAR 98 BB+ | 112 K+ | 103 AVG+ | 62 ISO+ Brian Roberts (4379 PA) 105 wRC+ | +36.2 BsR | +34.9 DEF | 24.4 WAR 120 BB+ | 79 K+ | 105 AVG+ | 84 ISO+ Luis Castillo (5618 PA) 98 wRC+ | +20.4 BsR | +43.4 DEF | 23.2 WAR 115 BB+ | 75 K+ | 108 AVG+ | 39 ISO+ Jean Segura (4657 PA) 97 wRC+ | +23.9 BsR | +43.6 DEF | 20.2 WAR 61 BB+ | 67 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 75 ISO+ Rafael Furcal (5192 PA) 101 wRC+ | +41.2 BsR | +36.7 DEF | 25.0 WAR 99 BB+ | 77 K+ | 106 AVG+ | 77 ISO+
  24. 103 ERA- (20th), -7 FRV (22nd), 4.74 RA/G (22nd), 105 FIP- (23rd), .307 wOBA (25th), 4.05 RS/G (25th), -88 Run Differential (27th), -33 DRS (29th), 87 wRC+ (30th) What talent though? EDLC is electric but how big of a Star he is mostly comes down to if you believe his DRS (-18 for 12.5 WAR on BREF) or his FRV (+11 for 16.3 WAR at FanGraphs). Chase Burns (4.9 rWAR) looks like a Legit Ace, but that's pretty much it with Hunter Greene hurt again. Andrew Abbott is a fine #3 starter, Sal Stewart & JJ Bleday would be alright as a team's 5th and 6th best hitters but they are 2nd and 3rd on the Reds, Tyler Stephenson is a cromulent backstop. Pickings get pretty slim after that. Bottom of their WAR leaderboard is downright ugly with Eugenio Suarez (383 PA of 86 wRC+ for -0.6 WAR), TJ Friedl (246 PA of 31 wRC+ for -0.9 WAR), Noelvi Marte (201 PA of 44 wRC+ for -1.4 WAR), and Ke'Bryan Hayes (193 PA of 20 wRC+ for -0.8 WAR)...that's almost four wins down the drain there plus they have another 17 hitters and pitchers between -0.1 and -0.5 WAR totaling another five wins out the window. Realistically they should sell off EDLC before he gets too close to free agency, and Chase Burns while he is healthy and dealing, plus anybody else they can get some future value for because their organizational talent level is pretty far removed from the Pirates and Cardinals (much less the Brewers and Cubs) at the moment.
  25. Kinda speaks to how few bats are good enough to be regular 1B year in year out for extended periods of time, and how the league views it as one of the more fungible positions. Would guess the universal DH last few years has also stolen some guys from the 1B pool. Here are how many players got 5,000 innings at each of the spots since 2002... SS (73) C (66) 3B (60) CF (58) 2B (54) RF (50) 1B (50) LF (36) ...doesn't quite line up perfectly with the defensive spectrum / positional adjustment values but its the same general shape and ideas playing out.
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