Justin Duchscherer

[zzzmanwitz]

Buster Olney talks about the possibility of Justin Duchscherer being an option for teams needing pitching. I think this is a fantastic idea and Melvin needs to be on the phone immediately with the A's to see what it could take to get him. Melvin has a history with Duchscherer so he should know what ability he has.

 

Here is the link to Olney's blog. http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

[dadofandrew]

He hasn't pitched at all this year, right? No minors, no majors?

 

He might be ready in a few weeks, but until then...

[Yeti73]

This would be a leap of faith by the Brewers. I can't imagine that the asking price would be very high. I wouldn't mind having JD as a late August addition. That said, I doubt we throw prospects at a guy about whom we don't know much with respect to health.

[Kelbysdaddy]

how many years are left on justins current contract?

[paulmolitor4]

how many years are left on justins current contract?

He is due to be a FA after the season.

[trwi7]

I just don't see how a guy who has been injured all year, who doesn't have a great strikeout rate and doesn't get a ton of groundballs while also throwing about 87 on a good day is a good bet for us.

[Pudster13]

This is the guy I predict we trade for.

 

Reasons:

-Oakland A's are obvious sellers and this guy is in the last year of contract (3.9M this year)

 

-Would not cost one of our blue chippers (Gamel, Escobar, Gamel), in fact, may not even cost as much as a B-level prospect (Salome, Green, etc).

 

-Has a history with Brewers GM Doug Melvin (Melvin and the Rangers trading Doug Mirabelli to the Red Sox for him on June 12, 2001)

 

-Buster Olney reports that the Brewers are scouting his minor league start on Sunday. (along with the Yankees....doh!)

 

- Gives us a #5 starter to fill in while Bush is out, then even if pulled from rotation, provides valuable starting rotation depth. (McClung, Burns, Dillard etc do not have the talent/experience) Also, has outstanding bullpen experience.

 

- Is a two time All-Star (2005 as a reliever and 2008 as a starter)

 

-If he preforms well and likes Milwaukee experience, could be a candidate to resign and help team in future (currently 31 years old, younger than Halladay)

 

- Has a cool nickname ("The Duke of Hurl")

[nate82]

This is the guy I predict we trade for.

No thanks I would rather roll the dice on Ian Snell than on Duchscherer.

[Never Outhustled]

Melvin is the only connection we have to this guy. 1 of his All-Star seasons he pitched for Ken Macha. If nothing else, he's a lights out reliever.

[bando1234]

Just read that the Crew is going to have a scout to watch is next rehab start(tonight maybe). It was on major league rumors off linked to the baseball cube.

[JoeHova]

If the Brewers trade for this guy, I would think/hope that it would be for a conditional Player To Be Named Later. An OK prospect if he's able to make, say, 6 starts or 10 appearances for the Brewers, a bad prospect if he makes fewer.

 

I would be livid if they traded Green or Salome for 5-6 starts of anybody, much less a guy who hasn't pitched all year and has only been a starter for 1 year. That's not how small market teams should operate.

[jwill535]

He went 2 innings with 2 SOs and no hits.

[cvmvp12]

I would love to get Duchscherer and Washburn. Duchsherer could help the bullpen out a ton and i think the price could be good.

[Never Outhustled]

That's not how small market teams should operate.

 

What does that have to do with the Brewers?

 

I doubt the cost would be Green. It would be a package similar to what we gave up for Durham.

[JoeHova]

What does that have to do with the Brewers?

 

It has to do with the fact that Milwaukee is either smallest or the 2nd smallest market in MLB (battling it out with KC). The huge revenue streams to compete on a dollar for dollar basis with the Cubs or Mets will just never be there. The Brewers can't keep sacrificing 6 years of cost control for a couple months of performance now. I don't think it's especially smart of even the big market teams to do that, but it is foolhardy for a team whose payroll ceiling is approximately the median team payroll.

 

If $90 million is the maximum payroll the Brewers can have (they're at about $80 million now) and a replacement level team would win 49 games and cost about $10 million, that leaves $80 million to try to pick up extra wins. Wins cost about $4.5 million on the free agent market last year, which means that a team could expect to pick up about 18 additional wins for that $80 million. That puts the Brewers at 67 wins and 95 losses if they build only with market value players. Contrast that to the Yankees, who can expect to win 91 games if they pay market value, or the Cubs, who can expect to win 77.

 

That means that the Brewers need their young, cheap guys much more than a large market team does.

[Never Outhustled]

It has to do with the fact that Milwaukee is either smallest or the 2nd smallest market in MLB (battling it out with KC).

Thats only fact if you use the archaic system Bud Selig used to judge market sizes, which was total population. Jump out of the 50s and try using demographics. We're in the upper half, and around 10th. our attendance is awesome and we're 3rd in TV ratings. We can maintain that if we continue to operate aggressively.

[JJHardy7]

Thats only fact if you use the archaic system Bud Selig used to judge market sizes, which was total population. Jump out of the 50s and try using demographics. We're in the upper half, and around 10th. our attendance is awesome and we're 3rd in TV ratings. We can maintain that if we continue to operate aggressively.

Where do we compare in revenue streams though? I honestly have no clue, but to me that'd be the most important number. If we're in the top 10 now, you have to figure we have to maintain a playoff caliber level every year...a down year with an aggressive payroll could really hurt the team. Again, not sure where we rank, but I think revenue generation would be the most important number. If we're 3rd in TV ratings, but 15th in revenue right now I'd say we're definitely a small market team. We really don't know what will happen when/if this team has a sub .500 year. That'd be the real test as to where the Milwaukee market ranks IMO.

[markedman5]

TV ratings are usually calculated by share. The higher percentage of homes watching the higher the rating.

 

Bigger market teams can have much lower ratings and still derive much more revenue from TV and radio then a team like the Brewers because they still dwarf us in the total number of homes/people watching.

 

Its like the difference between buying advertising in the Milwaukee Journal and the LA times. Doesn't matter if a higher perentage of Milwaukee people actually buy the Journal Sentinel.....the LA times still reaches a larger audience and therefore brings in more Ad revenue.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It has to do with the fact that Milwaukee is either smallest or the 2nd smallest market in MLB (battling it out with KC).

Thats only fact if you use the archaic system Bud Selig used to judge market sizes, which was total population. Jump out of the 50s and try using demographics. We're in the upper half, and around 10th. our attendance is awesome and we're 3rd in TV ratings. We can maintain that if we continue to operate aggressively.

How does Milwaukee's demographic profile put them 10th? Even if per capita income was above average and the ratings are higher, they aren't high enough to make up for the significantly smaller population. The Brewers have done a great job and the community supports them, but they are fairly close to maxing out their potential within the market. I'm not sure how much that relates to the demographic profile of Milwaukee.

[Weirdos19]

What if Duchscherer only costs us a prospect in the 15-20 range? I would jump at that.

 

Sure, he's been hurt. On the bright side, he'll be fresh come September.

[Hate those Rodents]

I agree, this looks like the move to me. I would not trade any of the following players for him though...Escobar/Gamel/Lawrie/Salome/Green/Lucroy/Cain. I am less sure on what pitching prospects to avoid trading for certain, but I know Braddock is one of them.