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Baseball America's top 10 Brewer Prospect list 2013


miggs721

BREWERS

TOP TEN

PROSPECTS

1. Wily Peralta, RHP

2. Tyler Thornburg, RHP

3. Taylor Jungmann, RHP

4. Hunter Morris, 1B

5. Jimmy Nelson, RHP

6. Johnny Hellweg, RHP

7. Victor Roache, OF

8. Scooter Gennett, 2B

9. Clint Coulter, C

10. Mitch Haniger, OF

 

BEST

TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Scooter Gennett

Best Power Hitter Victor Roache

Best Strike Zone Discipline Jason Rogers

Fastest Baserunner Edgardo Rivera

Best Athlete Tyrone Taylor

Best Fastball Johnny Hellweg

Best Curveball Tyler Thornburg

Best Slider Wily Peralta

Best Changeup Hiram Burgos

Best Control Drew Gagnon

Best Defensive Catcher Adam Weisenburger

Best Defensive Infielder Yadiel Rivera

Best Infield Arm Hector Gomez

Best Defensive OF Logan Schafer

Best Outfield Arm Mitch Haniger

 

PROJECTED 2016

LINEUP

Catcher Jonathan Lucroy

First Base Corey Hart

Second Base Scooter Gennett

Third Base Rickie Weeks

Shortstop Jean Segura

Left Field Ryan Braun

Center Field Carlos Gomez

Right Field Norichika Aoka

No. 1 Starter Yovani Gallardo

No. 2 Starter Wily Peralta

No. 3 Starter Marco Estrada

No. 4 Starter Tyler Thornburg

No. 5 Starter Taylor Jungmann

Closer John Axford

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Jungmann better explode next season if he's our #3 prospect and I'll leave it at that.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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Well again TH isn't pulling this out of the air, he's getting his information directly from the organization, so it's more of an organizational ranking.

 

Most of the best tools were spot on, at least on paper as far as I can tell not having the opportunity to watch them all play, so there's that. As much as I like Gagnon, I'm not sure he has the best control in the system, I would think that Burgos would be that guy. However, Gagnon was evolving his FB over the course of the season so maybe he was much better with the 4 seamer at the end, he's an interesting guy to watch.

 

The guy I'm most interested in is Roache... if he puts those tools together and has a legit eye at the plate he could be the next Brewer super prospect of the top 20 variety.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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I'd put Tyrone Taylor and even Nelson in that category of could develop into a really top level prospect as well. Not necessarily likely, but if Taylor keeps hitting outside of the Pioneer league anywhere close to what he did last year he's going to shoot through the roof as a prospect with that athleticism. Nelson it's getting that control back to make him look like a Kevin Brown clone.
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I think Gennett will end up being a utility infield type of player but the fact he can't really play SS is going to really hurt him. Probably hit the majors and have a 3 or 4 year career maxing out at like 150 PA in any given season or something like that. I'm not a huge believer in him either.
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BREWERS

PROJECTED 2016

LINEUP

Third Base Rickie Weeks

 

WHAT? Would he project well at 3rd? Would he even want to move there?

 

I don't see Weeks at 3B either. I assume he would be traded well before making that transition. But, if he could handle it, that would be an option when ARam moves on.

 

I just assume the projected lineup was influenced to not speculate on free agents filling holes, hence they needed to put someone that is a current Brewer there.

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These projections are merely guesses. Nobody can pinpoint what a lineup will look like that far ahead. Take them for what their worth. Nothing.

 

 

The one thing to take away from this is that the Brewers have very little in the high minors that projects to be MLB-ready in 4 years.

 

If they had high quality prospects in the OF, they wouldn't project Gomez & Aoki to still be there. If they had high prospects in the IF, they wouldn't project Hart & Weeks to be there.

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Having seen TH's many years of projected rosters I'd say they reflect his bias for players moreso than the list itself by a long shot. The tenor of the team also plays a roll. Back when we stunk it was all rookies now not so much
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I think the projections are based entirely on who we have now and is supplemented with players in the minors. Even though we all knew Fielder would be gone he was still projected to first basemen now. I don't think anyone actually thinks Weeks will be our 3rd basemen but there are no prospects anywhere at third base and they have to put someone there.

 

As far as the list itself. It's hard to complain with the pitching we now have, but years of neglecting positions like 3rd base and shortstop have really left the infield looking completely barren. We kind of lucked out the the Angels made Segura available because without him we'd have major, major issues at shortstop right now. And does this organization even have a player that could be considered a "prospect" at 3rd base? They addressed catcher last draft with Clint Coulter. Now I'd really love to see a high ceiling SS or 3B taken early.

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And does this organization even have a player that could be considered a "prospect" at 3rd base? They addressed catcher last draft with Clint Coulter. Now I'd really love to see a high ceiling SS or 3B taken early.

Actually I think Coulter may wind up being a 3B prospect. He's still obviously very young, but I don't think I've yet seen a positive report on his defense/defensive projectability. I think the smart money is on him eventually moving to a corner position, but again since he's so young, he could well make drastic improvements on D in the next two-three seasons.

 

But I agree with your larger point that the system is really thin on good bats.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I was thinking the same thing about Coulter at 3b. The oddest thing for me about that rather odd list is that they don't project Schafer as the starting cf in three years. Almost as odd is that they don't project Hunter Morris at 1b.

 

On Paul's point, I think you have to give the organization credit for going out and getting Segura, and for that matter Bianchi. They did neglect ss in the draft for a long time, but they fixed it another way. That's a legitimate strategy, and I don't think it involves any greater amount of luck vs. planning than drafting does. Now, 3b . . . the organization's feet are to the fire on that one.

 

I agree with the doubtful comments above about Gennett and with igor's enthusiasm about Taylor. I can't remember the last time we had a kid like Taylor, a young, raw super-athlete, who seemed like he really could be something.

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That's a legitimate strategy, and I don't think it involves any greater amount of luck vs. planning than drafting does

 

I do think it was luck....or at the very least extremely good timing. A lot of pieces fell together at exactly the right time for us to be able to get Segura. Had Milwaukee gone on their hot streak a few weeks earlier Greinke wouldn't have been traded and they'd still have no solution at SS. It was a good move by Melvin to get Segura and to take LA's package over Texas' but that doesn't change the fact that the position had been largely ignored for years and years in the draft and relying on the ability to acquire a high ceiling shortstop prospect in a trade is even more risky than the draft.

 

And I realize Mitch Haniger is listed as a top10 prospect but I just hated that pick. The very next player taken was Joey Gallo who would also have been a top 10 prospect but at a position we have absolutely nothing at right now.

 

I agree with a few others on Taylor though. He had a great first year and I'm really excited to follow him. Victor Roache as well. If he can come back from that wrist injury all the way he may end up being a steal.

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I could see Schafer emerging as the CF option. I can't imagine we'll pay to keep Gomez, and I think Schafer can be just as good. Of course, I think they're both average-at-best. As for Morris, I haven't projected him as a big league 1b as I haven't really drank his kool-aid yet. I'd prefer to try to sign Hart for 2-3 years while letting Morris play in AAA.
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Why bother writing a 2016 lineup projection? Weeks,Hart,Gomez,Gallardo, and Axford all could be gone by then. And realistically only Gallardo will remain out of that 4. Why not just put TBD/Area of need?

 

Now with all the hate on Gennett. Yet the guy was ranked as best hitter for avg. I'll take that at 2b.

 

Either way we look at it, the last 2 drafts have at least given us something to talk about. I am looking forward to Coulter more and more. Given 4years to develop he'll be 21-22 by the time he's called up on to the team. And if it's to play 3b as some suggest, nothing wrong with that. And Gagnon, if he has the best control, I see him as a SP on the team by 2016. Oddly enough between Jungmann,Thornburg, and Lopez he may turn out the best pitcher drafted in 2011. Not in skill, but in results.

 

Edit Add:Lookimg at Baseball reference, there may be something to Gagnon than let on as he was a 10th rd pick out of HS while Jungmann was a 24th rd pick in the same draft. This in the reasoning that Jungmann's Ceiling rose to be a 1st rd pick while Gagnon probably lost value in not being a flamethrower but was a 3rd rd pick nonetheless. Just suggesting that Gagnon could turn out better than profiled due to his control.

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And I realize Mitch Haniger is listed as a top10 prospect but I just hated that pick. The very next player taken was Joey Gallo who would also have been a top 10 prospect but at a position we have absolutely nothing at right now.

i completly agree with this, but gallo strikes out alot and i think that he gets more love then deserved since he was drafted by texas. their system tends to get a little more attention then most. gallo should have been the pick over haniger and, i might be wrong here, adam brett walker should have been the next pick instead of taylor. could you imagine the power bats that would come from a draft of coulter/roache/gallo/abw? i think haniger and taylor are too similar a player as well.

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Jed Bradley jettisoned into outer space after one mediocre but not horrendous year (107 IP)???

 

I do question why Baseball America is taken so seriously if it's true that Tom Haudicourt had substantial control over this list.

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Jed Bradley jettisoned into outer space after one mediocre but not horrendous year (107 IP)???

 

I do question why Baseball America is taken so seriously if it's true that Tom Haudicourt had substantial control over this list.

 

Because their content is generally fantastic, they just don't have enough staff to adequately cover every team so they have to rely on beat writers to get the goods directly from the organization. Their coverage of all aspects of the minor leagues and draft is second to none.

 

I found in the past and still believe that of the national websites, BA has far and away the most accurate/even handed scouting reports on players. PG and MLB scouting reports tend to be very focused only on the positive aspects of a player and then at the other end of the spectrum gurus like Sickels tend to be fairly heavy handed. I do read every scouting report for every player that I come across regardless if it's a site/guru/journalist I respect or not, just like I read all of the features and blog posts on every prospect, but if I'm linking content for other posters to read I'm going to focus on the sites that I think deliver the most knowledge on a daily basis. On this forum in my opinion that's BA and MiLB.com, the vast majority of the other sites are just going to regurgitate information that they've already put out in the open. Occasionally fangraphs will get a team executive to drop some good quotes on players, but from the scouting side there isn't really anything new.

 

In the end like anything else it comes down to personal perspective and choice. My personal choice was BA, I dropped subscriptions to sites like BP because I felt and still feel that advanced metrics never get into the how or why, there's so much about baseball that is extremely difficult to quantify that the discussion always seems to come back to luck and statistical noise, which is simply incredibly thin and narrow analysis from where I'm sitting. In a way it's kind of funny because I jumped on Sabermetrics thinking I'd find the answers I was looking for but then I ended up back here anyway trying to figure out the best way to develop/mature talent. There is a ton of value in sabermetrics but I've always felt the practical application leaves much to be desired.

 

BABIP is a great example, if you think about it all BABIP does is tell you who's really hot or really cold, regression analysis isn't the cause, it's the effect. Very, very few players are going to hit .400 or .200 for a season, adaptation and correction are woven into the fabric of baseball. Regression doesn't bring a player out of slump or cause his hot streak to end, regression is just the symptom, the root cause lies elsewhere. The cause can be anything from a mechanical adjustment to whatever is going on in that particular player's head. Slumps and hot streaks may have the appearance of being random, but labeling them as such is a gross distortion of the truth which is vastly more complex than a player being lucky or not. There are dozens if not 100s of variables that go into every single pitch and play in a game, there's nothing unlucky about a pitch left up over the middle of the plate that gets hammered for an XBH or HR. However, if you look at a pitch distribution chart it may appear so, but what you're missing from a distribution chart is the intended location, the sequence of the pitches, what the pitcher and catcher were trying to do to the hitter, and what pitch and location the hitter was looking for. A hitter should kill a FB up over the middle of the plate if he's sitting FB or he shouldn't be in the Major leagues in the first place.

 

Take it from the pitcher's point of view, why did he leave the pitch up? Did he short stride? Was his arm angle/slot off? Did he shorten up his follow through? Did he "aim" the pitch which tends to incorporate many of the previous questions? A pitcher missing his spot by a foot or more is no different than a QB missing a wide open receiver, there is a fundamental breakdown in his mechanics someplace on that particular pitch, but it's not random streak of bad luck, it's just a bad pitch. The root cause isn't random variance, it's definable and correctable.

 

Since I believe that players and organizations control their own destiny, or simply put that I don't believe in "luck", I don't care all that much about prospect rankings, but I do care about my quest to find truth and my search for a way for the Brewers to remain competitive over the long haul. That's why I champion BA, because everyday during the baseball season I can learn something new over there about a player, team, or concept that I didn't know the day before. In the off-season the coverage isn't as furious as the pace during the season, but I'll drop in once a week to catch up and it's never a waste of my time. I know how FIP, WAR, and UZR are calculated and arguing about the minutia attached to any new metric in any of the families doesn't really interest me at all. I'm not looking to derive a better result or excuse away poor performance, I'm looking to maximize any particular player's skill set and and I'm looking to maximize our relative talent in comparison to other teams. That's why I study GMs/organizational direction and that's why I spend so much time reading about prospects. Metrics don't win games, players do, and there's no better site to study up and read about players than BA.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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In BA's defense I'm pretty sure Haudricourt makes a recommendation for how the top prospects are ranked, and also supplies the reports. The BA staff has the final say on the player rankings, and I'm not even sure Haudricourt does the player reports past the top 10 (for their Prospect Handbook).

 

As for the future lineup, keep in mind that one year they had Fielder in LF and Sexson at 1B (or vice versa). We all knew that would never happen, but it's just how they stacked things up with the players that were currently in place. In other words, it's added purely for entertainment value and I'm guessing BA would be the first ones to admit that.

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