The Investment Thread

[BrewerFan]

On 7/13/2024 at 11:35 AM, PlayerHader said:

How do you continue day to day with a mindset that the future is so dark that you don't want to bring children in to it? Feels very depressing.

Yeah...this is NOT the place you come to for your "Daily Moment of Zen." 

I think things are going pretty damn well. Obviously, there are enormous issues we've got to deal with...but that's always been the case. 

As long as there is a free election in 2028(and subsequently '32, '36-holy **** I'm realizing how old I'm getting used Presidential terms as markers) then I've got a bit more faith in the US, the US Economy and the People in it to figure out and deal with those challenges.

We've also been hearing about the SS running out of money since the 1960s. It's been a pretty constant refrain.

[owbc]

On 7/13/2024 at 9:35 AM, PlayerHader said:

How do you continue day to day with a mindset that the future is so dark that you don't want to bring children in to it? Feels very depressing.

I’m fairly optimistic about the future, I think we’ll probably figure out many of the problems facing us. We’re likely going to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, for instance. But I think there are plenty of humans on this planet so I don’t feel any obligation to replace myself and my spouse with 2 (or more) children and governments need to start planning for that. 

[PlayerHader]

On 7/15/2024 at 1:20 PM, owbc said:

I’m fairly optimistic about the future, I think we’ll probably figure out many of the problems facing us. We’re likely going to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, for instance. But I think there are plenty of humans on this planet so I don’t feel any obligation to replace myself and my spouse with 2 (or more) children and governments need to start planning for that. 

The “people not having kids are the smart ones” knocked me for a loop. I’m 40 in December and when I see people my age without kids I can’t help but feel they’re missing out on life a bit. Like what brings them purpose? “Career” is such a lame answer, but I know people are wired differently.

[pitchleague]

For some of us, it just didn't happen.  We tried and it just didn't happen.  🤷‍♂️

It's not like we planned on it (although some people do.)

So, I guess it was the plan that the Man upstairs had for us.  And he had us use our lives to inspire and help thousands of children in other ways.

Missing out on life?  Not a chance.

[owbc]

23 hours ago, PlayerHader said:

The “people not having kids are the smart ones” knocked me for a loop. I’m 40 in December and when I see people my age without kids I can’t help but feel they’re missing out on life a bit. Like what brings them purpose? “Career” is such a lame answer, but I know people are wired differently.

The main reason I said that is because it's an extremely difficult time to be a kid and a parent. For many reasons. 

The word I would use is probably "obligation" instead of "purpose". And I don't mean that in a bad way, I just mean that it ultimately doesn't matter if I get any sort of personal fulfillment out of child rearing or not, but I damn well better do my job and take care of that kid to the best of my ability. 

I know a number of childfree individuals and couples...some by choice, some not. They are doing some pretty sweet stuff. One couple retired at age 40 (FIRE for the win!) and is selling their place and hiking the PCT next summer. Another does a ton of volunteer work for nonprofits that I would never have time to do. A third is a closer companion and caretaker to my daughter than anyone else besides her myself and my wife.

Anyway, in an attempt to keep this on topic, my main point is that nobody should have kids because of some societal obligation to train our replacements and caretakers for when we are old. If the government thinks we need more young people then there are millions of them who would be more than happy to immigrate. 

 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

The main reason I said that is because it's an extremely difficult time to be a kid and a parent. For many reasons. 

The word I would use is probably "obligation" instead of "purpose". And I don't mean that in a bad way, I just mean that it ultimately doesn't matter if I get any sort of personal fulfillment out of child rearing or not, but I damn well better do my job and take care of that kid to the best of my ability. 

I know a number of childfree individuals and couples...some by choice, some not. They are doing some pretty sweet stuff. One couple retired at age 40 (FIRE for the win!) and is selling their place and hiking the PCT next summer. Another does a ton of volunteer work for nonprofits that I would never have time to do. A third is a closer companion and caretaker to my daughter than anyone else besides her myself and my wife.

Anyway, in an attempt to keep this on topic, my main point is that nobody should have kids because of some societal obligation to train our replacements and caretakers for when we are old. If the government thinks we need more young people then there are millions of them who would be more than happy to immigrate. 

 

Yeah...this is a good point. I put off having kids until I knew I could afford their College funds, pay my house off, all that type of stuff...and now, I'm good. I put a good chunk into my nephew's 529 and started a fund for them, they come over and I enjoy them, but unless I get some ultimatum, I'll be fine not having kids. 

It seemed unachievable in my 20s. My 30s were about really setting myself up and...well, I could have made it work, but it did feel like an obligation. 

[Samurai Bucky]

On 7/19/2024 at 3:53 PM, owbc said:

The main reason I said that is because it's an extremely difficult time to be a kid and a parent. For many reasons. 

The word I would use is probably "obligation" instead of "purpose". And I don't mean that in a bad way, I just mean that it ultimately doesn't matter if I get any sort of personal fulfillment out of child rearing or not, but I damn well better do my job and take care of that kid to the best of my ability. 

I know a number of childfree individuals and couples...some by choice, some not. They are doing some pretty sweet stuff. One couple retired at age 40 (FIRE for the win!) and is selling their place and hiking the PCT next summer. Another does a ton of volunteer work for nonprofits that I would never have time to do. A third is a closer companion and caretaker to my daughter than anyone else besides her myself and my wife.

Anyway, in an attempt to keep this on topic, my main point is that nobody should have kids because of some societal obligation to train our replacements and caretakers for when we are old. If the government thinks we need more young people then there are millions of them who would be more than happy to immigrate. 

 

I guess I am a bit naive.  Mrs. Samurai and I didn't have children out of any obligation.  I guess it never crossed my mind that obligation would be a reason.  Like I said, I'm naive.

For us, having and rearing children is one of the most intimate and rewarding things that we could do.  We certainly didn't know what we were doing.  Beforehand, we sat down with a Financial Advisor and had a discussion about what we wanted to do for us and for our children.  Once we had a plan, we stuck to it as best as we could.  We did our best.

Now, many years later, two more little Samurai left in college.  We did not get all of the toys we wanted nor travelled everywhere we wanted (yet).  That said, it is a personal choice.  I don't think there is a right or wrong answer, but I do agree with you that parents should, "damn well better do [their] job and take care of that kid to the best of [their] ability."

Easier said than done... 

[homer]

Back to investing...

I'm considering rolling over an old SEP IRA to a Roth. It's a sizable chunk of change so I'd be doing it over a period of years. Is there any advantage to waiting for a market drop? My general feeling on investing is that it's really hard to time things so it's best to just make the move and live with it. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, homer said:

Back to investing...

I'm considering rolling over an old SEP IRA to a Roth. It's a sizable chunk of change so I'd be doing it over a period of years. Is there any advantage to waiting for a market drop? My general feeling on investing is that it's really hard to time things so it's best to just make the move and live with it. 

I think I'd agree with that. I was just reading a study talking about buying at all-time highs and how people are apprehensive to do it, but if you went back over the last 20 years and bought at the ATHs as opposed to buying at the EXACT perfect time in the market, you're talking about a 12.9% vs an 11.9% return(I don't remember the exact numbers, but they were within 1% in a best case scenario). And that's if you're absolutely perfect. ATHs are usually followed by more ATHs.

 

Personally, the best method IMO is just take whatever Cathie Wood says and do the opposite. Cathy Woods with the 2600 dollar price target on...TSLA in 4 years. That's reasonable...

 

 

 

[homer]

16 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think I'd agree with that. I was just reading a study talking about buying at all-time highs and how people are apprehensive to do it, but if you went back over the last 20 years and bought at the ATHs as opposed to buying at the EXACT perfect time in the market, you're talking about a 12.9% vs an 11.9% return(I don't remember the exact numbers, but they were within 1% in a best case scenario). And that's if you're absolutely perfect. ATHs are usually followed by more ATHs.

 

Personally, the best method IMO is just take whatever Cathie Wood says and do the opposite. Cathy Woods with the 2600 dollar price target on...TSLA in 4 years. That's reasonable...

It's hilarious how much Yahoo Finance promotes certain investors/finance "experts". I wonder how much Cathy Wood, Robert Kiyosaki, and Suze Orman pay to have articles written about them?

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, homer said:

It's hilarious how much Yahoo Finance promotes certain investors/finance "experts". I wonder how much Cathy Wood, Robert Kiyosaki, and Suze Orman pay to have articles written about them?

Oh...all that stuff is wild. I think it was the Motley Fool that had it's top two articles. One was about NVDA hitting 250 a share this year(so 6T market cap) and the other was how NVDA was going to have a massive 50% pullback. So you really get whatever information you want. Do you think we're in a bubble or are we still early on in the AI growth phase? Yes!

But Wood, she's notorious in how AWFUL she is! Her price target is 2600 on TSLA...but she sold. She owned NVDA early...but sold.

Last I'd seen, her 5-year returns were negative. She's largely in tech, she's been in some of the big winners early..and despite the last 2 years, '20, these great years in the market and she was roughly -1%. How is that even possible? You've had 3.5 years of really strong bull markets...

I think there's a place for speculating. Throw some disposable income into a couple of long shots, but you really have to treat it like gambling. She's doing it on a massive scale and just destroying people's retirements. 

I'm thinking AMZN might be a sell now that she's come out and added to it(then again, so did Buffett). 

 

I like just unemotional, bottom line channels that recap earnings. There's a channel with Joseph Carlson. He's good at this. 
Chipstockinvestor is pretty interesting for me, but that's because I'm still so overweight in that area. They're obviously bullish.

Everything Money is pretty solid as well as it exposes me to other stocks that I haven't really looked at.

Oh, and a GREAT one for all the "this stock could grow 35000% in 5 years," is Dylan Rieger. He uses all the context clues to help you figure out what stock it is and he's seemingly indifferent, but it's for all the, "pay 99$ to find out," and he just ruins their little business model. 

 

It's wild how much irresponsible advice is out there though. Since I've gone from just 401K and IRA and sticking with ETFs(which I've kept) to a bit more of a growth-oriented and riskier strategy in my brokerage account. You also realize how irrational the market is. Alphabet just had a really good Quarter. Down from IDK, 190 to 160-ish.

I try to not even look at my portfolio now. Just stay apprised of the big news and if something is going to fundamentally change, address it, but otherwise, if you like it, if you're confident, the short term is just a flip of the coin. Long term, you should be alright. Especially right now. Lots of volatility, people freaking out.

 

We JUST saw this in April. NVDA was at 974 intraday ATH. Dropped down to 720 because another company didn't give a preview! 

[nate82]

Been calling it for awhile now but today's meeting almost guarantees we only see one rate drop this year if there will be one.  Powell hinted at a rate drop but didn't say there will be one.  I don't think he would declare one anyways if he even knew there would be one. 

Most likely rate drop will be in September and it is looking like a .25 drop.  They could push it out to October or November which I believe would be Powell's preferred timeline so it would be after the elections.  Then we get into a maybe another rate drop in February or March of 2025.  It is still possible that they do nothing this year especially if the employment numbers don't change all that much or improve. 

[wallus]

I think today's report guarantees a September cut. Now the question is will it be .25 or .50? I will stick with .25

[nate82]

5 hours ago, wallus said:

I think today's report guarantees a September cut. Now the question is will it be .25 or .50? I will stick with .25

I am confident it will only be a .25 cut and since the fed meeting will be before the August jobs report comes out I don't think there will be much to sway the fed to do anything more than a .25 drop in rates. 

[MrTPlush]

With how cautious they have been anything more than .25 cut would be incredibly shocking.

[BrewerFan]

On 8/2/2024 at 2:54 PM, MrTPlush said:

With how cautious they have been anything more than .25 cut would be incredibly shocking.

I think it's going to be 50

I think there's going to be a little panic creeping in that they waited too long after what...is very possibly(likely?) coming tomorrow. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's going to be 50

I think there's going to be a little panic creeping in that they waited too long after what...is very possibly(likely?) coming tomorrow. 

The problem is that they didn't spike rates high enough earlier in this process to completely stifle inflation, and frankly jump the investment economy into a recession 1-2 years ago that led to actual price drops (deflation) to get costs back in line with incomes to avoid a consumer spending bubble from bursting....now markets are looking at the tea leaves showing consumer spending is teetering on a correction/pullback and any rapid rate cuts are just going to keep prices crawling further up at the worst possible time.

At some point this economy is going to have to pay the piper, there is no such thing as a permanent "soft landing" - most of this year has felt like 2008 all over again, but for different reasons....and as we head towards fall the markets are getting more volatile and looking more pessimistic with conditions that are harder and harder to mitigate without a significant correction.  

[homer]

Mortgage rates drop to 6.125% on 30-year

[pitchleague]

Ugh, what a crummy day.   Our accounts lost a bunch of money today.

Thank God that I'm not needing these accounts (nor touching them) for another decade and a half.

It's gonna get worse, isn't it . . . 😒

[owbc]

I don't see it being too big of a deal. Not enough to bother with moving long-term investments. There will probably be a bump upward when they cut rates.

I did buy some CDs today, gotta lock in at least some gains while interest rates are still high. 

[BrewerFan]

26 minutes ago, owbc said:

I don't see it being too big of a deal. Not enough to bother with moving long-term investments. There will probably be a bump upward when they cut rates.

I did buy some CDs today, gotta lock in at least some gains while interest rates are still high. 

Yeah...I just think it needed a little release...and I think, barring some outside factors, it'll bounce back in the next ~2 months. That's what happens most of the time there's a correction of ~10% or more. You regain and see new ATHs not long thereafter...but if we knew, we'd all be rich.

 

[LouisEly]

I thought this was going to happen a year ago, so I went heavy on bonds when the 10-year was 4.5%+.

Took a while, but that's finally paying off.  Or, at least mitigating the other stuff.

[BrewerFan]

 Nikkei back up 10% today, Asian Markets as a whole bouncing back. Most stop up in after hours.

I think the crash was a bit premature...as long as things don't really pop off in the Middle East....but we'll see. 

[BrewerFan]

57 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I thought this was going to happen a year ago, so I went heavy on bonds when the 10-year was 4.5%+.

Took a while, but that's finally paying off.  Or, at least mitigating the other stuff.

I put some in Bonds in Feb in my IRA taking them out of higher risk tech stocks, but that's because I was kinda backed into a corner in my brokerage account. Despite giving back a good chunk of gains, I still don't want to sell and pay the short term taxes(plus all of these companies are increasing their capex on AI...ever one of their top customers). 

PLTR's earnings should help the AI driven stocks...though NVDA's earnings, which are already locked in and I think will continue to be strong should help help later this month. Forward Guidance may cause be harmed a bit due to a delay in Blackwell, but that should be minimal and could actually help their margins for Q3.

I've got 20-25 years, so it's pretty risky, but I'm willing to take it and it's been pretty good so thus far. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Definitely not a "put it all under your mattress and close your eyes until the crash hits bottom", but the increased volatility is eerily similar to summer 2008 - series of dead cat bounces when investors were hoping the actual outlook was rosier than where some fundamentals indicated things were headed.