The Investment Thread

[nate82]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

How do you even "buy" BTC without excessive transaction fees on an exchange that isn't liable to lose your investment at the first sign of trouble? Robinhood? 

The ETF's will solve this and I am almost 100% confident the SEC is going to pass these.  There are too many big name financial banks that are supporting these ETF's for the SEC to deny them. 

[nate82]

Bitcoin ETF’s have been approved.

[nate82]

The one thing that I still fear for the economy is the quantitative tightening.  There has never been a full cycle of tightening we are basically in uncharted waters for this. 

[wallus]

All of my friends that rave about Bitcoin also raved about NFTs. Coincidence? (I am sure I will be told how wrong I am and no I am not saying they are the same...)

[nate82]

28 minutes ago, wallus said:

All of my friends that rave about Bitcoin also raved about NFTs. Coincidence? (I am sure I will be told how wrong I am)

Bitcoin has an actual use case for it.  It can be used for many things especially the technology behind Bitcoin.

NFT’s were just limited digital art which you could just copy rather easily.

[owbc]

57 minutes ago, wallus said:

All of my friends that rave about Bitcoin also raved about NFTs. Coincidence? (I am sure I will be told how wrong I am and no I am not saying they are the same...)

Bitcoin isn't going anywhere, it's basically the gold of the digital age. 

I threw a couple thousand in FBTC to see what happens. 

[LouisEly]

FBTC down 6% today.  Bitcoin down 8%.

[owbc]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

FBTC down 6% today.  Bitcoin down 8%.

Good thing I bought it in the afternoon 😂

[GAME05]

19 hours ago, wallus said:

All of my friends that rave about Bitcoin also raved about NFTs. Coincidence? (I am sure I will be told how wrong I am and no I am not saying they are the same...)

I don't get into NFTs at all but they do have a use-case. Tokenized proof-of-ownership of real assets. Bonus that an asset can be divided into a million pieces and sold that way, too. The idea behind the monkeys is that the more we exist in the metaverse, the more that our avatar will be our only differentiation from one another and our only way to display wealth/status. But we're way way early for monkey-use just yet that it'll all stay a bit silly until/if there's a popular use case developed.

The best current use case for NFTs is in video games, which happens to be a bigger market than movies and TV combined. So many million$ spent on loot boxes and skins and exclusive weapons, and if they were NFTs the player would own those items and be able to sell them. It opens a new avenue of play-to-earn video games. 

------------------

Grayscale has sold off 6,000 BTC so far. Buying interest in the ETF has been strong, but with GBTC selling its Trust holdings there's still more BTC coming onto the market than off. 

When gold became an ETF the price fell for six straight weeks before it went up 300%. 

[BrewerFan]

Anyone in on NVIDIA early? Looking at these stocks makes me feel like I'm thinking about the lottery.

My cousin...a financial advisor, he got me in on it last...fall(he told me last spring, but...I didn't listen). Nothing crazy, a few hundred shares. I have this irrational idea that when a stock is at 400-500 a share, it's almost not worth getting in as you've already missed the boat(I know how stupid that is). 

Just curious if we have any future Bucks owners on here from NVIDIA?

Or anyone else with individual stocks they're particularly high on?

[nate82]

ARM is a good stock to own.  

[pitchleague]

Pretty sure I have some shares in Nvidia but no clue, off the top of my head, how many.   I doubt I’m retiring on Monday with what I’ve got or I’d have heard from my financial guy by now.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:32 PM, nate82 said:

ARM is a good stock to own.  

Seems like everything related to chips, AI, cloud security, it's all booming right now.

PANW is another one a friend of mine at MS put me on to a couple weeks ago(should have acted quicker as it was still just at ~280.

Gonna see how much more NVIDIA has left and then gonna put a good chunk into TSLA for the next 2-3 years. Some analysts are incredibly bullish on their long-term outlook even without the autonomous car service(though if they get that going without too many hiccups, it's going to be huge(not that TESLA is some secret).

[BrewerFan]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:32 PM, nate82 said:

ARM is a good stock to own.  

Damn...REALLY good stock to hold!

[PlayerHader]

FBTC looking juicy after that initial dip. I've been in and to of BTC, mostly because I have no interest in every taking custody of my own (I simply don't trust myself not to screw it up). These ETFs are exactly what I've been looking for to allow me access to that market. I'd guess probably many others, as well.

[Samurai Bucky]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:07 PM, BrewerFan said:

Anyone in on NVIDIA early? Looking at these stocks makes me feel like I'm thinking about the lottery.

My cousin...a financial advisor, he got me in on it last...fall(he told me last spring, but...I didn't listen). Nothing crazy, a few hundred shares. I have this irrational idea that when a stock is at 400-500 a share, it's almost not worth getting in as you've already missed the boat(I know how stupid that is). 

Just curious if we have any future Bucks owners on here from NVIDIA?

Or anyone else with individual stocks they're particularly high on?

My business partner got in on it very close to the beginning.  He recently sold and is using it to build a lakefront home.  No kidding.

We got into it probably 4 or so years ago.  It went up a bunch since then, but not enough to build a house.  Broadcomm has been a nice surprise, too.

[owbc]

We'll see how earnings goes...if NVIDIA gets down to the $600 range it's a pretty good buy opportunity. I don't see one disappointing earnings cycle being enough to kill the hype. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

We'll see how earnings goes...if NVIDIA gets down to the $600 range it's a pretty good buy opportunity. I don't see one disappointing earnings cycle being enough to kill the hype. 

I'd be shocked if it goes down that far...but I'd buy more. They haven't even announced earned as of now, right? Eh, either way, I agree, I think this is just a blip(more accurately, people smarter than I with more financial acumen have told me it's a blip).

On 2/19/2024 at 2:17 PM, Samurai Bucky said:

My business partner got in on it very close to the beginning.  He recently sold and is using it to build a lakefront home.  No kidding.

We got into it probably 4 or so years ago.  It went up a bunch since then, but not enough to build a house.  Broadcomm has been a nice surprise, too.

I believe it. The only time I've ever done anything close to that was I was just out of college and the Banks plummeted. Took what little I could muster up and got Citi at ~1.50 a share. This was after the announcement they were getting bailed out. Not enough to make me rich, but to get me started and some options.

 

A new Lakehouse though? 4 years? Hope you're 4 years from buying your own lake home. I'm lucky. I'm more of a Cabin type guy. MUCH cheaper...so I don't need the returns y'all have gotten. But congrats!

[owbc]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I'd be shocked if it goes down that far...but I'd buy more. They haven't even announced earned as of now, right? Eh, either way, I agree, I think this is just a blip(more accurately, people smarter than I with more financial acumen have told me it's a blip).

Aaand they crushed earnings. Jumped from $680 back to $740 after hours. All aboard the hype train! 

[BrewerFan]

31 minutes ago, owbc said:

Aaand they crushed earnings. Jumped from $680 back to $740 after hours. All aboard the hype train! 

Yup! And I know it's not the end of the world if it dropped...the old Warren Buffett line "I haven't made or lost anything, I still own the stock." But it feels a lot better when it's up!

[wallus]

On 12/14/2023 at 3:40 PM, wallus said:

If I had a $1 for all of the bears that told me to "just wait!", I would retire. All of them that predicted doom this year and gloom have been hilariously wrong and they just keep pushing their predictions out until they will eventually be correct.

I will not be concerned until unemployment goes up dramatically. That may happen but we are far from that.

The market just keeps going higher and higher. I am even starting to get a little nervous but I am happy that I didn't listen to the vocal bears and have made a killing in the market.

I am of the opinion we will have two rate cuts this year starting with one this summer.

[nate82]

41 minutes ago, wallus said:

I am of the opinion we will have two rate cuts this year starting with one this summer.

I don’t believe there will be two rate cuts and if they do one it is because the economy would be sluggish.

If you are truly a bull or optimistic about the economy then rate cuts wouldn’t be what you are expecting.  The stock market isn’t really an indicator that I would use for rate cuts or increases.  You would want to look into liquidity and the bond markets for that.

The fed hasn’t really given much of an indication on what they are going to do.  I expect a flat rate for a few quarters.  Maybe a rate cut in Q3 if the economy is sluggish.  I don’t expect the economy to turn sluggish but I think the Fed is going to keep watching inflation closely.  I think it is more likely we see at least one rate increase than we are to see two rate cuts.

[LouisEly]

With the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumping despite a higher than expected jobs report (which have consistently been revised downward several months later), I think that two rate cuts are much more likely than a rate increase.

Hopefully the Fed realizes that the unemployment rate has been artificially suppressed by 2.5M immigrants coming into the country seeking work permits last year, and that number isn't slowing down.  The US population grew by 1.6M last year, with 2/3rds coming from immigrants (most of whom are in their working years) as opposed to births, who won't be in the work force for ~20 years.

[homer]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

With the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumping despite a higher than expected jobs report (which have consistently been revised downward several months later), I think that two rate cuts are much more likely than a rate increase.

Hopefully the Fed realizes that the unemployment rate has been artificially suppressed by 2.5M immigrants coming into the country seeking work permits last year, and that number isn't slowing down.  The US population grew by 1.6M last year, with 2/3rds coming from immigrants (most of whom are in their working years) as opposed to births, who won't be in the work force for ~20 years.

Can you clarify that last sentence? Are you saying immigrants won't be in the workforce in 20 years?

[owbc]

I'm gonna keep riding the S&P 500 for now. Feeling pretty good about this being a strong year for stocks. I expect rates to stay about the same. 

It feels like we really dropped the ball on housing as a country and we're only beginning to pay the price for that. 

The bears will be right at some point but it doesn't feel like we are at the top quite yet.