The Investment Thread

[Joseph Zarr]

Great to read thoughts here, Gents!

Yeah, another session of Rate Cuts shouldn't have anyone feeling rosy about a falsely propped stock market heading into an election year. At least, not in my book. I look for opportunities to diversify when over 70% of the global market responds literally the exact same way as the US Market (bonds and stocks). The herd mentality is nearly always the losing One in the end. The current cumulative price action pictures are great for short term gains (astute point, Chorizo), but this is not a Long Term win - especially if you are keenly aware of the likely regression to Stagflation (given the current debt load and the Credit Markets picture) that could make the 1970's look like a cakewalk in the end.

Do you manage your own portfolio or does Fidelity or the like? (Not saying this is a bad thing by any measure). What am I doing, for shirts and goggles?

1) Bitcoin is my insurance portfolio. 10%  insurance. I trust my pro Bond Trader and Junk Bond traders. I diversified on the way down off of $67K. I could easily rationalize 20% but I personally prefer more diversity in my holdings. I continue to cost average. AND, let me just say you can make a solid argument the FED (contrary to the Biden SEC shenanigan policies and failed shadow bank shutdowns) has been shadow buying large sums. Likely to back a troubled US Treasury.

2) I can't trade spot gold and silver here BUT I can buy paper positions. Is it a manipulated market? Abso-friggin-lutely. What market isn't?! Most zealots would demand you hold physical, I can't get myself to horde in a safe or at a facility and deal with the shipping etc. Regardless, given the global picture in my book this is a must hold position. Gold has eclipsed ATH's (and will continue to set new AT Highs in the years ahead). Oddly, this being said, now is also the time to swap significant percentages into silver with the 81:1 ratio eclipsed just last week.

3) Given the low inventory in the Housing Market, I was still able to target upside areas and play the waiting game. With my flexibility and personal situation, I was quite easily the best buyer sellers were going to see. I was very picky. I moved some holdings into two solid rental properties. I targeted the areas hoping I won't have issues with renters (!!). We shall see. So far so good 😅

3) In the global stock market picture, Markets that are down one or two years historically tend to be up in the years following. To this end, and not boring you with PCA research; intel; and charts...in 2024-2026 I see distinct opportunities in:

- Platinum
-Gold Silver
- the crypto market (Supercycle essentially already announced itself)
- Japanese Bonds
- Indonesian equities

There is more but I won't divulge all my lil secrets! Here's one example from the above sectors:

Ethereum shows a very possible $25-28K Final Target in its technical macro chart. You can enter a position, for example, in one of the Eth ETF's and not even deal with holding or buying crypto but you sure as heck can swing trade that price action.

[owbc]

If they did indeed hit the "soft landing", it's an impressive achievement. 

I assume rates will sit in the 5% range for a bit until there is either a recession that drops them back to zero or more inflation that causes them to go up further. 

Consumer confidence seems to depend on whether you are getting f***ed by high housing costs in a low wage job or not. I don't know what to think of that. The average consumer doesn't seem to have any interest in curtailing their spending.

Personally I think stocks are going to continue to rally.

 

[wallus]

If I had a $1 for all of the bears that told me to "just wait!", I would retire. All of them that predicted doom this year and gloom have been hilariously wrong and they just keep pushing their predictions out until they will eventually be correct.

I will not be concerned until unemployment goes up dramatically. That may happen but we are far from that.

[LouisEly]

17 hours ago, wallus said:

I will not be concerned until unemployment goes up dramatically. That may happen but we are far from that.

Ask someone who is unemployed.

I'm at ~300 applications over the last 6.5 months.  And I have a MBA from UW-Madison (with a 3.93 GPA).

Almost 40% of companies said they anticipate having layoffs in 2024 and over half say they are likely to have a hiring freeze.

We're not out of the woods yet.

[wallus]

40 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Ask someone who is unemployed.

I'm at ~300 applications over the last 6.5 months.  And I have a MBA from UW-Madison (with a 3.93 GPA).

Almost 40% of companies said they anticipate having layoffs in 2024 and over half say they are likely to have a hiring freeze.

We're not out of the woods yet.

I am sure you are frustrated but we are still pretty much in the easiest time period to find a job ever. 

If it were me, I would be looking in a different industry or something with lower pay than what I earned at my prior job after 3 months but everyone's situation is different.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

If it were me, I would be looking in a different industry or something with lower pay than what I earned at my prior job after 3 months but everyone's situation is different.

You seriously don't think I've done that?

My skills are industry-agnostic.  I've applied in dozens of industries and for jobs that paid 40% less than what I made in my last role.  Lower pay/experience means more applicants and more age discrimination.  The only way you get hired now is if you have deep industry experience or have worked for one of that company's biggest competitors in that industry.

Hop on LinkedIn and see what people are saying about the job search now.

[owbc]

Three close family members got laid off in the last year. All business/MBA types, tech or tech adjacent. Two have found new roles, one has been unemployed for nearly a year (but is notoriously picky). Consensus is that job market picked up in Q4. Some slowdown now for the holidays but I think we're way more likely to see hiring pick up in January rather than a string of layoffs like last year. It's definitely not like the golden times of a few years ago...and there is a lot of tension about evolving hybrid/remote work arrangements that hasn't fully fleshed itself out yet. 

Hoping for the best for you @LouisEly!

 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Consensus is that job market picked up in Q4.

It did appear to pick up in Q4.  I think I got more responses in Q4 than in Q2 and Q3 combined.  I think part, or most, of that is that the most experienced people were hired in Q2 and Q3 and now those people are off the market.  And most have been put on hold for the holidays.

For the record, I got a "hiring manager did not select you for interviews" from a talent acquisition person this morning about a job directly related to my MBA that has a salary range midpoint that is 40% less than what I made at my last job.  And is on-site 5 days a week.  "There was a lot of interest in the role..."

That being said, I think I had a good hiring manager interview this week for a job in the industry I have the most experience in that has a salary midpoint that is 12% more than what my last job paid.

It's all about industry experience right now.

[wallus]

6 hours ago, LouisEly said:

You seriously don't think I've done that?

My skills are industry-agnostic.  I've applied in dozens of industries and for jobs that paid 40% less than what I made in my last role.  Lower pay/experience means more applicants and more age discrimination.  The only way you get hired now is if you have deep industry experience or have worked for one of that company's biggest competitors in that industry.

Hop on LinkedIn and see what people are saying about the job search now.

Good luck with your search

[wallus]

On 1/1/2023 at 9:59 PM, wallus said:

Just an update on my 2022 investing if anyone cares. I invested all of my primary job's salary (before bonus) in the market. I did weekly buys in 4 ETFs. 40% in a Total US Market Fund, 40% in a Dividend US Fund, 15% in an Income US fund and 5% in an International Dividend Fund.

I ended up being down 1% for the year after re-investing dividends. I was hoping to dump some of my year end bonus in the market but right now have it in high yield savings accounts earning around 4%. If the market starts to go down and hits certain figures, I will start throwing the bonus money into the 4 funds above.

Talking to other people, they said I did pretty well. If you put a lot of money in Tech, you probably got killed.

I put in offers for 4 rental properties and did not get any of them. All of them were bought with cash and well over ask so nothing lost.

2023 goals are to keep investing weekly and not check my account so much. 

2023 Update:

Invested in the same funds weekly. Also had a decent amount at my brokerage making 5% for uninvested funds. 

YTD: up 10.55%

Overall: 9.39%

Before I was looking at purchasing rental properties and now I am in the process of selling them. Priorites have changed and I do not want the headaches anymore.

I plan on taking any money I get from the rentals and throwing it in an index fund.

[GAME05]

Well done!

I beat the market this year, but within 1%. Still counts!

Don't have any property yet, but that'll probably change soon enough. Want to get my retirement plans more set first.

[zurch1818]

5 hours ago, wallus said:

YTD: up 10.55%

Didn't the S&P go up by 24% in 2023? I know a lot of my growth mutual funds are up by more than this percentage but I don't really care enough right now to look at the exact numbers. Maybe you started investing later in the year? Or maybe you beat the market by 10.55%? I'm just trying to understand.

[CheezWizHed]

Happy 2024 everyone!  

This year represents my transition into my retirement prep phase.  For almost 30 years I've mainly focused on growth of my 401k.  Last year, I started figuring out my "number" to hit retirement and think I can make it in the next 10 years or so. 

But I have some unique challenges and goals with some of my kids and want to start figuring out how to prepare for retirement (especially early retirement) now so I have a nice "runway to land the plane."

I'm curious about any advice to pick a financial planner.  A friend of mine likes Edward Jones.  I have an old 401k in Fidelity... Does anyone have a financial planner?  What expectations should I have? Or what questions do I ask?

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Happy 2024 everyone!  

This year represents my transition into my retirement prep phase.  For almost 30 years I've mainly focused on growth of my 401k.  Last year, I started figuring out my "number" to hit retirement and think I can make it in the next 10 years or so. 

But I have some unique challenges and goals with some of my kids and want to start figuring out how to prepare for retirement (especially early retirement) now so I have a nice "runway to land the plane."

I'm curious about any advice to pick a financial planner.  A friend of mine likes Edward Jones.  I have an old 401k in Fidelity... Does anyone have a financial planner?  What expectations should I have? Or what questions do I ask?

Vanguard...it's owned by the investors, they aren't taking a pct, they take a flat fee(1500 a year, but you need to have a min of 500K in there **For a personal financial planner, not to open up any account there). 

That'd be my advice as I've been very happy with them. 

They go over every detail with you. The questions you should ask? I have a feeling you know, but are they fiduciary, how do they make money or what % do they take. What are their returns over the past 15 years. Probably nothing you wouldn't already ask. Maybe someone else can add something more insightful on that end, but Vanguard is something I'd strongly recommend. 

[LouisEly]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:29 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Happy 2024 everyone!  

This year represents my transition into my retirement prep phase.  For almost 30 years I've mainly focused on growth of my 401k.  Last year, I started figuring out my "number" to hit retirement and think I can make it in the next 10 years or so. 

But I have some unique challenges and goals with some of my kids and want to start figuring out how to prepare for retirement (especially early retirement) now so I have a nice "runway to land the plane."

I'm curious about any advice to pick a financial planner.  A friend of mine likes Edward Jones.  I have an old 401k in Fidelity... Does anyone have a financial planner?  What expectations should I have? Or what questions do I ask?

I have some friends who work for Edward Jones.  Things to ask them:

1. What were your "biggest hits" in the last 3-5 years?  Why did you like them?
2. What were your "biggest misses" in the last 3-5 years?  What were you wrong about?
3. How do I access to my account to be able to see my holdings & transactions?  (If they say you can't, run.)  Make sure you get account-generated statements and research where your funds are held.
4. Here's my retirement number.  How do I get there from here?
5. What are your fees?  How are they paid?

Give them half of your investments.  Keep the other half and mirror their investments.  I'm not a fan of turning everything over... my uncle got taken for almost everything after he sold his business.  In fact, take your nest egg that you can't afford to lose and here are your investments:

• Large-cap value fund or S&P 500 fund: 30%
• Mid-cap value fund: 15%
• Small-cap value fund: 15%
• Real-estate fund/gold: 5%
• International fund: 5%
• Bonds: 30%

[nate82]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

• Large-cap value fund or S&P 500 fund: 30%
• Mid-cap value fund: 15%
• Small-cap value fund: 15%
• Real-estate fund/gold: 5%
• International fund: 5%
• Bonds: 30%

Good mix but I would add bitcoin to the real-estate fund/gold.  Maybe do something like 1.5% bitcoin, 1.5% gold and 2% REIT.

[CheezWizHed]

11 hours ago, nate82 said:

Good mix but I would add bitcoin to the real-estate fund/gold.  Maybe do something like 1.5% bitcoin, 1.5% gold and 2% REIT.

I'm not sure where you are in your retirement journey, but I'm not touching bit-coin at this stage of my life. I have no doubt that one of them at some time is going to pop.  But it is such a high fail rate (or at least volitility), it is pretty much the antithesis of real estate and gold.

Thanks for the advice guys. I have some money in Vanguard Index funds, but hadn't considered using their advisors.  

@LouisEly, would you feel comfortable investing with your friends at EJ? Not that I'd be working with the same people, but curious about company culture.

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not sure where you are in your retirement journey, but I'm not touching bit-coin at this stage of my life. I have no doubt that one of them at some time is going to pop.  But it is such a high fail rate (or at least volitility), it is pretty much the antithesis of real estate and gold.

Thanks for the advice guys. I have some money in Vanguard Index funds, but hadn't considered using their advisors.  

@LouisEly, would you feel comfortable investing with your friends at EJ? Not that I'd be working with the same people, but curious about company culture.

One thing I've done recently to further diversify from just the retirement account is throw a pile of my rainy day fund savings into CDs - my bank had 9 month and other short term CDs at 5% APR with the recent rate hikes.  That's a pretty solid guaranteed return that doesn't tie up funds for too long, either.

2022 sucked for my retirement account (and probably for most of us since there was really nowhere to hide in stock or bond fund markets), but 2023 was a nice rebound....hoping the market isn't as volatile as I think it will be in 2024 so the gains we've all seen recently have a chance to stabilize the retirement account baselines.  It does seem like the bond market is finally starting to crawl out of the hole it dug itself into the past few years, so making sure to have a decent percentage of the 401k tied to a bond fund or two makes alot of sense if you're at an age where the retirement finish line is at least starting to come into view. 

 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not sure where you are in your retirement journey, but I'm not touching bit-coin at this stage of my life. I have no doubt that one of them at some time is going to pop.  But it is such a high fail rate (or at least volitility), it is pretty much the antithesis of real estate and gold.

This is a mistake.  If the ETF bitcoins are approved by the SEC then Bitcoin will start to stabilize.  Even if you drop bitcoin to just 0.5% you should be fine.  One of the biggest mistakes by retirees is getting out of high risk investments.  You are losing out on potential gains by doing this and putting you at risk on relying solely on your low risk assets which may not keep up with inflation. 

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

This is a mistake.  If the ETF bitcoins are approved by the SEC then Bitcoin will start to stabilize.  Even if you drop bitcoin to just 0.5% you should be fine.  One of the biggest mistakes by retirees is getting out of high risk investments.  You are losing out on potential gains by doing this and putting you at risk on relying solely on your low risk assets which may not keep up with inflation. 

I understand what you are saying, but I just have less faith in bitcoin stabilizing than you. I know at sometime it will... but which one and when?  Real Estate and Stocks are sufficient enough for me to stay ahead of inflation. 

[LouisEly]

7 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not sure where you are in your retirement journey, but I'm not touching bit-coin at this stage of my life. I have no doubt that one of them at some time is going to pop.  But it is such a high fail rate (or at least volitility), it is pretty much the antithesis of real estate and gold.

Thanks for the advice guys. I have some money in Vanguard Index funds, but hadn't considered using their advisors.  

@LouisEly, would you feel comfortable investing with your friends at EJ? Not that I'd be working with the same people, but curious about company culture.

Yes, I would feel comfortable investing with them because I've known them for 30 years and I know how they think.  But they don't live anywhere near me and I have another family friend who is a financial advisor and my parents have referred so many people to him that he gives me free investment advice.  I can't speak to company culture, but I'd ask any investment advisor why they went to work for EJ/Merrill Lynch/whoever as opposed to another firm and if they've worked for them their entire career.

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

This is a mistake.  If the ETF bitcoins are approved by the SEC then Bitcoin will start to stabilize. 

But that's already factored into the price of Bitcoin and why the price has been driven up.  And if the uptake of Bitcoin post-approval isn't what was anticipated into the speculation that has driven up Bitcoin price the last year, or if it isn't approved by the SEC, then Bitcoin price will drop like a rock.

Point being, as Jim Cramer says, you only need to get rich once.  Once you have your nest egg and can retire comfortably, there is no need to risk it.

[Jimbo]

On 1/2/2024 at 2:29 PM, CheezWizHed said:

I'm curious about any advice to pick a financial planner.  A friend of mine likes Edward Jones.  I have an old 401k in Fidelity... Does anyone have a financial planner?  What expectations should I have? Or what questions do I ask?

Last week, finally put my signature on an LTC policy.  The final piece to my retirement puzzle.  Almost feels like signing a second mortgage.  I'll let others worry their retirement homes.  I have piece of mind.

 

Four years ago, we hooked up with EIG.  They manage our Roth IRAs.  Annually, we have a one-hour zoom call to review that and the rest of our investments.

 

[owbc]

How do you even "buy" BTC without excessive transaction fees on an exchange that isn't liable to lose your investment at the first sign of trouble? Robinhood? 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

Last week, finally put my signature on an LTC policy.  The final piece to my retirement puzzle.  Almost feels like signing a second mortgage.  I'll let others worry their retirement homes.  I have piece of mind.

 

Four years ago, we hooked up with EIG.  They manage our Roth IRAs.  Annually, we have a one-hour zoom call to review that and the rest of our investments.

 

That is a huge cost. I worked at an Insurance company after Grad school and it was soul-sucking and they were...pretty shady, but the long-term care and short-term care are really important. You can easily go through your retirement or what you were going to leave your kids OR worse yet, end up in a poorly run retirement home.