Wade Miley Eat Crow Thread

[Mr Southpaw]

Biggest game of the year for Miley today. A win and we draw to within one game of the Cubs. I hope he does well.

[djoctagone]

two or fewer earned runs in 12 of miley's 13 starts. that 13th start? a paltry three earned runs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Miley has been a godsend for the Brewers this year. I keep waiting for the wheels to come flying off, or for a blow-up start, which has been the norm throughout his career, and it hasn't happened. I was 100% wrong on him.

 

I think a lot of it has been how the team has used him. It there has been any hint of a blow-up, he's been pulled. Last night was really the first time they left him in with signs of big trouble, and a perfect shift bailed him out.

 

It is at the point where I'd love to see them offer him a smart contract for next year, but I fear he's pricing himself out of that.

[torts]

I watched the game last night, that cutter was solid, but the cubs caught on and just knew to take them as balls since they were always right below the zone. really digging Miley!

[YelichPosse]

I watched the game last night, that cutter was solid, but the cubs caught on and just knew to take them as balls since they were always right below the zone. really digging Miley!

 

This.

 

And I love that he was missing low. You miss low, you won't get hurt.

[Spidey]

Heck of a job this season by Wade. Never would have guessed what he could add to the team, much less 4 2/3 scoreless in a NLDS game.

 

Please pass the ketchup.

[pacopete4]

 

In case anyone needs help preparing.

[OldHeidelberg]

It seemed easy too, felt like he could go 6-7 if it was a regular season game. Amazing job and amazing team. Thanks Wade!

[Mr Southpaw]

 

In case anyone needs help preparing.

 

Looks pretty tasty, there is just not much meat on those bad boys. It would take about one hundred of these little fellas to feed everyone on this board who needs a portion.

[Mr Southpaw]

It seemed easy too, felt like he could go 6-7 if it was a regular season game. Amazing job and amazing team. Thanks Wade!

 

I hope he can continue with a solid 4-6 innings as a starter. CC seems to have a great understand of when to pull his starters.

[TommyHarper3rdBase]

One of the many great acquisitions made by the best GM in baseball.

[TURBO]

He has been great, but there is a certain degree of luck involved here...

 

Question is, do we resign him?

[Roderick]

He has been great, but there is a certain degree of luck involved here...

 

Question is, do we resign him?

 

I only see that happening if they can trade away Anderson for somewhat fair value. Just too many bodies otherwise, and you can't or don't want to stash that many of the other guys in the bullpen/minors.

[A Swing and A Drive]

After being a long time non-believer in the greatness that is Wade Miley, I made a promise to my colleagues at The Brew Crew Review that if Wade Miley wins a World Series game as a Brewer, I will write and send Mr. Miley a 1000 word apology letter and read the entire letter on our podcast.

 

I will start writing it now...

[homer]

He has been great, but there is a certain degree of luck involved here...

 

Question is, do we resign him?

 

Has it? I'm not disagreeing at all and it stands to reason there has been luck involved but just curious what makes you believe that. He induced a TON of ground balls and I'm not so sure the analytics take defensive shifts into account on batted balls. Someone might know more about that than me though.

[jjfanec]

Just remember Stearns signed Chacin and Miley for a combined 10 million this year. That got us a combined era in the low 3s and 20 wins and 270 innings pitched.

Epstein signed Chatwood and Darvish for a combined 33 million this year and for coming seasons. That got them a combined era over 5 and 5 wins and 140 innings.

[TURBO]

He has been great, but there is a certain degree of luck involved here...

 

Question is, do we resign him?

 

Has it? I'm not disagreeing at all and it stands to reason there has been luck involved but just curious what makes you believe that. He induced a TON of ground balls and I'm not so sure the analytics take defensive shifts into account on batted balls. Someone might know more about that than me though.

 

I should have been more clear. I think it was a certain degree of luck that he turned out as good as he has. I don't think that anyone KNEW, even Stearns, that he would be this good. I didn't mean luck as in his pitching, etc. I meant luck as in knowing he would turn out this good. No one could have possibly foreseen the results we got.

[homer]

He has been great, but there is a certain degree of luck involved here...

 

Question is, do we resign him?

 

Has it? I'm not disagreeing at all and it stands to reason there has been luck involved but just curious what makes you believe that. He induced a TON of ground balls and I'm not so sure the analytics take defensive shifts into account on batted balls. Someone might know more about that than me though.

 

I should have been more clear. I think it was a certain degree of luck that he turned out as good as he has. I don't think that anyone KNEW, even Stearns, that he would be this good. I didn't mean luck as in his pitching, etc. I meant luck as in knowing he would turn out this good. No one could have possibly foreseen the results we got.

 

Ah, gotcha. yeah I doubt Stearns and Co thought he'd be anywhere near this effective.

[long ball]

I was nervous about Miley going into yesterday. He hadn't been super sharp his past two times out. The Rockies hit lefties really well.

 

Miley definitely delivered the results the Brewers needed.

[istanbultaye]

In regards to luck, just to note, his BABIP for the year was .274, which is ~.25 better than any year of his previously. That said, even if he did regress back towards .300, he'd still probably be a solid mid 3s ERA kind of guy if he continues pitching the way he has this year. Who knows what will happen though. I'm just thankful he's had his turnaround as a Brewer, and hope he's got a few more games like the last one in his tank!

[homer]

In regards to luck, just to note, his BABIP for the year was .274, which is ~.25 better than any year of his previously. That said, even if he did regress back towards .300, he'd still probably be a solid mid 3s ERA kind of guy if he continues pitching the way he has this year. Who knows what will happen though. I'm just thankful he's had his turnaround as a Brewer, and hope he's got a few more games like the last one in his tank!

 

yeah I saw that and he has outpitched his FIP and xFIP too. I'm just wondering how much the defensive shifts have helped since he induces so many grounders. Could that render traditional interpretation of BABIP as unreliable?

[istanbultaye]

Shifts and the Brewers solid defense just in general have undoubtedly helped. Most of the pitchers who've pitched more than a few innings this year have outperformed their FIP, and few have been worse, and even those have been pretty close.

 

I just think this year's sample is a bit to small to really feel anything definitively towards the future for Miley, and am just happy he has at the very least caught the proverbial "lightning in a bottle" for the crew. I do lean towards his new repertoire being legit, but think that over a full season, his results would be more at the Chacin level (which would be pretty darn good as well, of course). His FIP/xFIP/BABIP kind of tends to point in that direction.

[gregmag]

Shifts and the Brewers solid defense just in general have undoubtedly helped. Most of the pitchers who've pitched more than a few innings this year have outperformed their FIP, and few have been worse, and even those have been pretty close.

 

I just think this year's sample is a bit to small to really feel anything definitively towards the future for Miley, and am just happy he has at the very least caught the proverbial "lightning in a bottle" for the crew. I do lean towards his new repertoire being legit, but think that over a full season, his results would be more at the Chacin level (which would be pretty darn good as well, of course). His FIP/xFIP/BABIP kind of tends to point in that direction.

This makes a ton of sense. When a guy goes from Miley's depths last year to his heights this year, something real (not to say necessarily sustainable) is going on. When you can document what that real thing is -- different repertoire, better defense -- you're no longer just talking about a sample; you've got a basis for a theory.

 

All of that said, I wouldn't resign him, unless nobody wants to pay much and he's comfortable taking a cheap deal here. I mainly think that way because of our other 2019 rotation options, so I'll go look for the 2019 rotation thread.

[A Swing and A Drive]

These are underappreciated factors in the Brewers unbelievable 2018 success without "brand name" starters:

 

1. Effective Defensive Shifts

2. Stellar Defense

3. Pitching Coach Derek Johnson

4. Young Middle Relievers that could be future rotation staples (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta)

5. Employing 4 All-Star Late Inning Relievers with Closing Experience (Knebel, Jeffress, Hader, Soria)

6. Wade Miley improving his cutter and limiting walks that dogged his career prior to 2018.

 

Counting Game 163 vs Cubs, the Brewers pitching staff has allowed 3 earned runs in 37 postseason innings to this point.

 

Wow...Just wow.

[TJH123]

I admit I was completely wrong about both Miley and Chacin, we wouldn’t have reached the playoffs without them. Anderson and Davies regressed as I predicted before the season. The rotation held up though and huge credit to Stearns for getting Chacin and Miley on such bargain deals. Hopefully Jimmy is able to reach his past form next year because if he does and if young guys like Burnes perform very well in the rotation and Chacin can maintain along with maybe rebound seasons from other starters this team should win 100+ games next year. Focus is on now though obviously