The importance of Keston Hiura

[NievesNoNO]

Probably being discussed in different areas but I can't help but feel rightly or wrongly, that the Brewers ability to advance to the WS is largely correlated with either the performance of or trading of Hiura.

 

It's kind of a perfect storm with the Brewers financial situation, Hiura's prospect status and the Brewer's position of need. The guy is maybe the Brewers best hitting prospect in a decade or so. He's likely the best 2B in the organization, a clear position of need and also highly regarding enough to be the centerpiece of a significant trade.

 

It would be great if they didn't have to rely on him, but I think it's kind of the nature of the small market beast. At some point you have to bank on a few of your young guys. Is the upside of Hiura (even in his rookie season) enough of a needle mover/upgrade over last season to risk not searching out another option and focusing resources in a different area or just allowing for some financial flexibility during the season?

 

Thankfully DS is more creative than me.

[sveumrules]

Last year Brewers 2B batted 227/290/378 (78 wRC+).

 

Steamer projects Hiura for 258/304/393 (86 wRC+).

 

I'd guess most here would take the over on that projection.

 

If he can match his 2018 AA production in MLB & put up a 270/340/420 line that would be about a 105 wRC+ at MP.

[tigerbrew]

For me, I would keep Hiura and promote him to majors this August like we did with another highly rated prospect Arcia in 2016. Hiura is a way better hitter than Arcia.

[502 to Right]

Stearns is looking for a quality one year stopgap 2B for 2019. I don’t think he wants to rely on Hiura this season if he can help it.

[rickh150]

I tend to feel we can get Lowrie for two years at a premium cost (2yr for 25 mill). We could get the best bat on the market at our weakest position. When Hiura is ready, plug him in. Lowrie could play some 2B, SS, or 3B and serves as insurance to injury or poor play. Shaw could play some 1B or 2B.

 

If they feel Lowrie is legit, AND they've kicked all tires and have nothing else on the FA front burner for the rotation or C, this becomes a great way to get immediate production at a weak spot for a pennant chasing team.

[NievesNoNO]

I tend to feel we can get Lowrie for two years at a premium cost (2yr for 25 mill). We could get the best bat on the market at our weakest position. When Hiura is ready, plug him in. Lowrie could play some 2B, SS, or 3B and serves as insurance to injury or poor play. Shaw could play some 1B or 2B.

 

If they feel Lowrie is legit, AND they've kicked all tires and have nothing else on the FA front burner for the rotation or C, this becomes a great way to get immediate production at a weak spot for a pennant chasing team.

 

I do also like the idea of Lowrie. This is where the larger markets get the advantage I guess. He's a perfect fit for what the Brewers need. I believe if they had the money to throw at it, he'd be their guy. I think it will take some off-loading of their current payroll to get this done.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I think people are way to high on Hiura. I'm not looking at the advanced metrics, but I'd take the Scooter Gennett of the past couple years over the prospect of Hiura. I've always liked Scooter and I can see Hiura as a disaster in the field. People seem to want to forget the defensive side of the ball on Hiura, but love to bash Braun on his defensive issues especially at 3rd base. I've always liked Sxcooter and didn't think he was given enough of a fair shot. Bring this thread back in 2 or 3 years and I'll still stand by my thoughts.

[PlayerHader]

You’ll take a .300+ Ave, 25+ HR guy over the unknown of KH? You don’t say...

[BrewersSuperCollector]

You’ll take a .300+ Ave, 25+ HR guy over the unknown of KH? You don’t say...

 

 

And the Brewers gave it away for nothing

[sveumrules]

There were 164 players who got at least 900 plate appearances between the 2015-16 seasons.

 

Of those 164 players, Scooter ranked 148th in wRC+ (86) & 156th in WAR (0.4).

 

For two seasons he was one of the worst regulars in all of MLB.

 

I'd say that's a pretty fair shot.

 

With regards to defense, Braun's -32 DRS/-28.5 UZR at 3B in 2007 are the 2nd/3rd worst marks of over 1,500 individual qualifying seasons among infielders & outfielders between 2007-18. I'm pretty confident that even if Keston is below average at 2B he won't be historically awful.

[sveumrules]

You’ll take a .300+ Ave, 25+ HR guy over the unknown of KH? You don’t say...

 

 

And the Brewers gave it away for nothing

 

Because no team was willing to offer anything of value after Scooter was one of the worst regulars in MLB for two straight seasons.

[rickh150]

You’ll take a .300+ Ave, 25+ HR guy over the unknown of KH? You don’t say...

 

 

And the Brewers gave it away for nothing

 

Because no team was willing to offer anything of value after Scooter was one of the worst regulars in MLB for two straight seasons.

 

Still.... he is right. Gave it away for nothing.

[sveumrules]

Right. Because no one offered more than nothing.

 

Cause = player is among worst in MLB for two straight seasons.

Effect = player has no value.

 

The Reds valued Scooter so highly they started him in 19 of 56 games before his 4 HR outburst. If they knew he was going to be so good why did they wait so long to give him regular starts?

[DuWayne Steurer]

[Matt Breen]

Hiura is really important because right now he appears as the one position player in the upper levels of our system that could be an all star level player.

 

We traded for one all-star (Yelich), signed another (Cain), and picked up a couple of guys that are pretty darn good bats (Shaw and Aguilar). All those were awesome moves - and I expect us to try and add other good players. But it's going to be really hard to add another all-star level guy short of spending big or trading away a lot of really good young players. We just don't have those kinds of assets and/or can't sustain the long term viability of the team if sell out in those ways.

 

Thus, developing some all-star level players is really critical to this team improving. I think Hiura can be that kind of player - just not sure when and how far he can reach. But it will be fun.

[dlk9s]

I would totally take prime Joe Morgan over Hiura and look, the Brewers aren't even kicking the tires on him.

[adambr2]

Prime Joe Morgan was an on-base machine with a slick glove who would be a fantastic addition at 2nd near the top of our lineup.

 

Unfortunately he has shown some resistance to analytics and thus may not be a great fit for a team that continuous relies on shifting and other analytical advantages.

 

In addition at age 75 it's probably fair to assume that he won't have double digit HR power anymore, and may have a noticable loss in both base speed and bat speed.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think people are way to high on Hiura. I'm not looking at the advanced metrics, but I'd take the Scooter Gennett of the past couple years over the prospect of Hiura. I've always liked Scooter and I can see Hiura as a disaster in the field. People seem to want to forget the defensive side of the ball on Hiura, but love to bash Braun on his defensive issues especially at 3rd base. I've always liked Sxcooter and didn't think he was given enough of a fair shot. Bring this thread back in 2 or 3 years and I'll still stand by my thoughts.

The general consensus is Hiura will be an average MLB defender at 2B. His college arm injury led to a lot of unfounded speculation that he's a poor defender.

[wallus]

Keston is very important because we lack young, cheap offensive players. As good as Stearns has been with trades/waiver pickups, it is unlikely that he will continue his rate of success. We need some homegrown talent to help manage payroll.

[Lathund]

I think people are way to high on Hiura. I'm not looking at the advanced metrics, but I'd take the Scooter Gennett of the past couple years over the prospect of Hiura. I've always liked Scooter and I can see Hiura as a disaster in the field. People seem to want to forget the defensive side of the ball on Hiura, but love to bash Braun on his defensive issues especially at 3rd base. I've always liked Sxcooter and didn't think he was given enough of a fair shot. Bring this thread back in 2 or 3 years and I'll still stand by my thoughts.

 

Why can you see Hiura as a defensive disaster? The question marks about his defense were due to his elbow issues, which meant he hadn't played much 2B in the past. That is to say his 2B defense was an unknown, not a negative. He's coming off a full season playing mostly 2B, and most evaluators seem to rate him as an average defender at 2B, some as slightly below that. Either way, far from a disaster. And the elbow has been healthy.

[pacopete4]

Throw in the fact that Stearns has had some pretty positive things to say about his defense and it just looks like some are trying to be negative about a player none of us have seen much of.

[markedman5]

Scooter was given plenty of time........why is it so hard for people to just accept that sometimes guys just explode out of nowhere?

 

I mean there are so many examples of this over the years that it would be difficult to count them all......guys that were DFA and then became solid regulars or even great players. Rule 5 guys......released guys...waiver guys.....guys that were drafted in late rounds that end up in the hall of fame.....

[3and2Fastball]

 

Exactly. And I've said it over & over about Scooter: if you want the Scooter of the last 2 years you'd also need the Reds' hitting coach. It is well documented that he helped significantly in changing Scooter's swing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think people are way to high on Hiura. I'm not looking at the advanced metrics, but I'd take the Scooter Gennett of the past couple years over the prospect of Hiura. I've always liked Scooter and I can see Hiura as a disaster in the field. People seem to want to forget the defensive side of the ball on Hiura, but love to bash Braun on his defensive issues especially at 3rd base. I've always liked Sxcooter and didn't think he was given enough of a fair shot. Bring this thread back in 2 or 3 years and I'll still stand by my thoughts.

 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion - but ignorant opinions aren't worth communicating to others. There isn't a single thing you wrote in this post that is correct.

 

People may be too high on Hiura - but it's tough not to be after he proved that his elbow issue isn't an issue that would cost him development time in the minors due to an immediate TJ surgery, while raking through most of a MLB spring training - followed by advancing through two minor league levels and basically owning the AFL.

 

Hiura is a much better defender right now than Rickie Weeks ever was, and I'll opine that he's going to be a better defensive 2B than Gennett.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think people are way to high on Hiura. I'm not looking at the advanced metrics, but I'd take the Scooter Gennett of the past couple years over the prospect of Hiura. I've always liked Scooter and I can see Hiura as a disaster in the field. People seem to want to forget the defensive side of the ball on Hiura, but love to bash Braun on his defensive issues especially at 3rd base. I've always liked Sxcooter and didn't think he was given enough of a fair shot. Bring this thread back in 2 or 3 years and I'll still stand by my thoughts.

The general consensus is Hiura will be an average MLB defender at 2B. His college arm injury led to a lot of unfounded speculation that he's a poor defender.

 

 

Add to that if he ends up an average defender he will be an upgrade over Gennett.