Rolling with Hiura

[NBBrewFan]

IIRC, he hit fine at AAA last year, but struggled when back at MLB (early spring training is like AA ball - yes I made that up).  What will really tell if he's improving is can he reduce his K% back to something like 30% as he was nearly 40% last year (with a corresponding drop in hard hit balls).  So far signs are good and definitely encouraging, but we'll see when the level of pitching improves and his numbers are more than a few handful of PAs.

[homer]

it's the swing and miss part of his game that needs to improve. even though he did ok at AAA he was still swinging and missing a ton which means his OK stats won't translate to OK at the big league level.

[BallFour]

I just don't think people realize how bad Hiura was at AAA the second half of the year.

May+June

89 PA .403 AVG .506 OBP .708 SLG 1.214 OPS 29.2% K rate

August+September 

117 PA .150 AVG .271 OBP .280 SLG .551 OPS 36.8% K rate

[BillScottCanRake]

Just here to enjoy the hot streak however long it lasts... 

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, BallFour said:

I just don't think people realize how bad Hiura was at AAA the second half of the year.

May+June

89 PA .403 AVG .506 OBP .708 SLG 1.214 OPS 29.2% K rate

August+September 

117 PA .150 AVG .271 OBP .280 SLG .551 OPS 36.8% K rate

Oh, I remember. It was truly truly turrible.

BUT, hope Springs eternal. The crocuses, tulips, and daffodils are emerging. And, so too, can Spring Training optimism. 

#KestonForMVP

[brewmann04]

Big thing if he can turn it around would be great for this offense.

[KeithStone53151]

On 3/23/2022 at 9:09 PM, yourout said:

I'm not going to get too excited till he's facing regular season pitching.

That swing still has way too much elevation and decent fast balls at the belt are still going to be a problem.

I really don't agree with this take. Keston spent the entire off season doing 2 things. 1, getting shredded. 2, making mechanical adjustments specifically designed to help him handle belt high fastballs better. The swing we are seeing now I firmly believe will be much more successful against belt high fastballs. I'm sure some will get by as they do everyone, but I don't believe it will be like last year where he knows it's coming and still can't hit it.

All that said, one thing I noticed is his swing in BP has less leg kick than his swing in game. It's still much less than his leg kick last year, but the difference is notable. It seems like something he'll have to be conscious of constantly going forward to make sure old habits don't leak back into what he's doing. I could see a scenario where all of a sudden the leg kick gets too big in June and high fastballs become a problem again.

[monty57]

Keston may have an uphill climb. He's really a 1B/DH at this point, and they traded for Brosseau who probably entered spring as the favorite to be a RH backup first baseman (as well as playing multiple other positions), and signed McCutchen who will probably be the primary RH-hitting DH.

Hiura has a lot of upside, so it'll be interesting to see if he forces his way onto the roster.

[rickmanningfan]

I don't know if I'd say he has "a lot of upside" anymore.  Much of that was tied up in his being a 2b that hit.  The Brewers aren't exactly loaded at 1b, but Hiura wouldn't be a monster bat at 1b even if he regressed from last year's misery.  He's a fun guy who gave the Crew a super fun year and I'll be pulling for him, but he's got a tough road at this point.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, rickmanningfan said:

I don't know if I'd say he has "a lot of upside" anymore.  Much of that was tied up in his being a 2b that hit.  The Brewers aren't exactly loaded at 1b, but Hiura wouldn't be a monster bat at 1b even if he regressed from last year's misery.  He's a fun guy who gave the Crew a super fun year and I'll be pulling for him, but he's got a tough road at this point.

I guess it depends on if that .938 OPS, 139 w RC+ guy we saw back in 2019 still exists. 

If the holes in his swing are too big, and the pitchers have figured him out, then the upside could be gone. However, that player did exist, and if Hiura can "find it," then that nearly .400 OPS improvement would be a lot of upside.

I'm glad that the Brewers aren't counting on him to be good, but it would sure be nice if he could figure things out.

[tomwopat]

On 3/20/2022 at 11:15 AM, sveumrules said:

Definitely helps when comparing players from different eras. Like Ben Gamel (30.5 K%) & Rob Deer (30.4 K%) have nearly identical K rates, but Gamel has a K%+ of 170 compared to 206 for Deer.

Here’s a direct link to the Brewers +Stats leaderboard going back to 1970…

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=23&season=2021&month=0&season1=1970&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1970-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

Great to see TTO legends Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, and Russell Branyan topping that list.

Unfortunate for Deer (and his wallet) that the Sabermetric revolution would take a few more decades to hit, he managed 3.7 WAR in his age 31 season for Detroit.

 

 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, tomwopat said:

Great to see TTO legends Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, and Russell Branyan topping that list.

Unfortunate for Deer (and his wallet) that the Sabermetric revolution would take a few more decades to hit, he managed 3.7 WAR in his age 31 season for Detroit.

 

 

Rob Deer did have a lot of late inning magic too; 54 of his 230 (24%) career homeruns occurred in the 8th, 9th or extra innings. 

Deer also seemed to be good at going deep against the better pitchers in the game at the time homering off of: Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Jack Morris as well as Jimmy Key, Roger Clemens, Mark Langston, Chuck Finley, Dave Stewart,  Frank Viola and Tom Gordon. 

He'd be the veteran that ends up on a contender every year because of his "clutch late inning power". Like someone said, a different era cost him a lot of scratch. 

[Robocaller]

13 hours ago, monty57 said:

Keston may have an uphill climb. He's really a 1B/DH at this point, and they traded for Brosseau who probably entered spring as the favorite to be a RH backup first baseman (as well as playing multiple other positions), and signed McCutchen who will probably be the primary RH-hitting DH.

Hiura has a lot of upside, so it'll be interesting to see if he forces his way onto the roster.

Since Hiura has reverse splits, McCutchen doesn't compete with him very much. Hiura is better vs. RHP, McCutchen vs. LHP.

 

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Rob Deer did have a lot of late inning magic too; 54 of his 230 (24%) career homeruns occurred in the 8th, 9th or extra innings. 

 

compared to 22.2% expectation (I know it's not quite so simple because he didn't bat in the 9th for (most) home wins)?

Reminds me of the Dilbert cartoon when the boss got angry when he heard that 40% of sick days were on Monday and Friday.

 

[homer]

I didn't realize his elbow was so messed up last year. According to the article in The Athletic, he gained something like 10-15 degrees of flexion since last year. that's a lot of bend.

[torts]

I am all aboard the Kestdaddy train!  Bring on the dingers!

[Fear The Chorizo]

With a 26 man roster and DH in the NL, Hiura has to make the opening day roster at this point.  The only way we will know if he's adjusted and bounced back at the mlb level is to see how he performs against mlb pitching in regular season games.  He would get enough ABs as a platoon DH/1b/ph role to justify that roster spot, and if he's anything like he was in 2019 at the plate the bat will play.  

[wntrtxn21]

With Urias out, I can't see how Hiura makes the club unless he replaces Tellez at 1B. They signed McCuthen to be the RH DH and play LF when Yelich DHs. So the bench looks like:  McCutchen(DH/LF) - Taylor (4th OF) - Peterson or Brosseau (1B-2B-3B) - Severino (C) - Reyes or Turang (SS). Taylor plays CF when Cain sits. W/o Urias, the Brewers have to have someone who can play SS if Adames gets hurt during the game. Peterson/Brosseau don't play SS so that means either Reyes or Turang have to be on the roster until Urias returns. With McCutchen/Yelich the DHs and very few LH starters in the Central, I don't know how CC could get enough ABs for Hiura even when Urias comes back. 

[Outlander]

If Urias is out Hiura would almost have to make it with a 28 man roster 

[pitchleague]

@Outlander stated the same thing that I was going to say.  With a 28-man roster for (at least) the month of April, I think it is now a given that Huira will make the opening day roster.  How long he stays will be in his hands, while also accounting for any player(s) who start the season in a major slump.

I am hopeful he has fixed things.  Outside of that first home run game, in which I was skeptical and was still seeing the leg kick, I have seen less and less of any leg kick from him, which I think may be the key.  The question remains how fast his bat will be when he faces big league pitchers in games that actually matter, rather than the 12th-string relievers he has faced so far.  (Okay, not all of them were scrubs/minor leaguers.)

[brewers888]

Unless the Brewers have acquired an established first baseman that I don’t know about there is no reason why Hiura shouldn’t have a shot at starting. Nothing against Rowdy but Hiura should be given every opportunity to win the job.

[monty57]

17 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

With Urias out, I can't see how Hiura makes the club unless he replaces Tellez at 1B. They signed McCuthen to be the RH DH and play LF when Yelich DHs. So the bench looks like:  McCutchen(DH/LF) - Taylor (4th OF) - Peterson or Brosseau (1B-2B-3B) - Severino (C) - Reyes or Turang (SS). Taylor plays CF when Cain sits. W/o Urias, the Brewers have to have someone who can play SS if Adames gets hurt during the game. Peterson/Brosseau don't play SS so that means either Reyes or Turang have to be on the roster until Urias returns. With McCutchen/Yelich the DHs and very few LH starters in the Central, I don't know how CC could get enough ABs for Hiura even when Urias comes back. 

In the one ST game I have been able to watch, they started Brosseau at SS. I don't know if they plan on using him as the backup SS once the season starts, but he's getting reps there this spring.

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

With Urias out, I can't see how Hiura makes the club unless he replaces Tellez at 1B. They signed McCuthen to be the RH DH and play LF when Yelich DHs. So the bench looks like:  McCutchen(DH/LF) - Taylor (4th OF) - Peterson or Brosseau (1B-2B-3B) - Severino (C) - Reyes or Turang (SS). Taylor plays CF when Cain sits. W/o Urias, the Brewers have to have someone who can play SS if Adames gets hurt during the game. Peterson/Brosseau don't play SS so that means either Reyes or Turang have to be on the roster until Urias returns. With McCutchen/Yelich the DHs and very few LH starters in the Central, I don't know how CC could get enough ABs for Hiura even when Urias comes back. 

If Hiura is still swinging a hot bat when the season starts, they'll find him at bats (DH, 1B, LF etc.), especially with 28 players to start the year. 

By the time the rosters go back to 26, Urias would be healthy and Pablo Reyes would not be needed. 

[JohnBriggs12]

Ok, so Hiura let's assume he continues to hit the last 10 days in Arizona and makes the club.  Barring an injury somewhere, finding enough AB's for him to test how it carries over is a real problem.  Taylor's been just as hot and he needs ABs somewhere too.  Spelling Cutch at DH vs RH makes some sense.  Then the question comes how long do you give him?  Till Mother's Day?  What if he's really raking?  Who do you sit?  Do you think about dealing Wong and sacrifice defense?  I guess you platoon McCutcheon and Tellez.

[monty57]

11 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Ok, so Hiura let's assume he continues to hit the last 10 days in Arizona and makes the club.  Barring an injury somewhere, finding enough AB's for him to test how it carries over is a real problem.  Taylor's been just as hot and he needs ABs somewhere too.  Spelling Cutch at DH vs RH makes some sense.  Then the question comes how long do you give him?  Till Mother's Day?  What if he's really raking?  Who do you sit?  Do you think about dealing Wong and sacrifice defense?  I guess you platoon McCutcheon and Tellez.

I doubt that Hiura will ever be used as an everyday 2B again, so I think Wong's job is safe.

I think the PAs would come at DH vs RHP and at 1B vs LHP, basically platooning with McCutcheon at DH and Tellez at 1B.