Rolling with Hiura

[CheezWizHed]

Will we ever see 2019 Huira again (138 OPS+)? No, I doubt it (not without big changes).  His .402 BABIP was massively unstainable.  Couple that with a 30%K and 7.2% walk rates, and he was certainly going to regress from an incredible rookie season.

And did pitchers find his weaknesses and exploit them? Surely. Hitting is all a matter of milliseconds of timing.  The difference from a foul ball and HR can be very small.  Now it is up to Huira to adjust back to what people are doing to him.  

I think quieting his leg kick will help him load and trigger better in the past - it typically does with anyone that started with it (Rickie Weeks?).  His bat is fast and now he can vary the start better with what the pitcher is doing to him.  

Secondly, laying off pitches outside the zone.  He has poor judgment at this point because I think he got used to being able to catch up to anything, but can't at the MLB level.  

But when I say he can still be a good hitter, I mean that he has a natural abilty for the ball to jump off the bat that not everyone has.  Honestly, after bringing up Rickie Weeks it isn't a bad comparison.  Running in the 800-850 OPS and 110-120 OPS+ range is reasonable with his bat skills.

But making those two adjustments is no picnic either.  And a reason many players like him are sitting at home (or in AAA).

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

But when I say he can still be a good hitter, I mean that he has a natural abilty for the ball to jump off the bat that not everyone has.  Honestly, after bringing up Rickie Weeks it isn't a bad comparison.  Running in the 800-850 OPS and 110-120 OPS+ range is reasonable with his bat skills.

And that would only make him suitable as a placeholder at 1b until someone better could be acquired. 
I hope he exceeds your hopes, but I don't think the odds of that are good. My opinion could change after 100 good ABs.

[sveumrules]

Weeks is an interesting comp, through his age 24 season he had a 141 K%+ and a 102 wRC+.

Through his age 24 season Keston has a 152 K%+ and a 101 wRC+.

Of course Rickie always walked more so he had that foundation to build off, but he went on to trim his K%+ to 124 and raise his wRC+ to 118 over his age 25-28 seasons. 

If Hiura could make similar gains there could maybe still be a useful player in there somewhere.

 

[Robocaller]

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Weeks is an interesting comp, through his age 24 season he had a 141 K%+ and a 102 wRC+.

Through his age 24 season Keston has a 152 K%+ and a 101 wRC+.

Of course Rickie always walked more so he had that foundation to build off, but he went on to trim his K%+ to 124 and raise his wRC+ to 118 over his age 25-28 seasons. 

If Hiura could make similar gains there could maybe still be a useful player in there somewhere.

 

how does one K 141% of the time?

 

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

how does one K 141% of the time?

 

K%+ is the same idea as OPS+ or ERA+, 100 is average. A 141 K%+ means Weeks struck out 41% more than average.

League average K rate has risen from 16.6% in Weeks age 24 season to 22.6% in Hiura’s age 24 season.

Using K%+ accounts for those rapidly changing baselines.

[NBBrewFan]

13 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think quieting his leg kick will help him load and trigger better in the past - it typically does with anyone that started with it (Rickie Weeks?).  His bat is fast and now he can vary the start better with what the pitcher is doing to him.  

Secondly, laying off pitches outside the zone.  He has poor judgment at this point because I think he got used to being able to catch up to anything, but can't at the MLB level.  

But when I say he can still be a good hitter, I mean that he has a natural abilty for the ball to jump off the bat that not everyone has.  Honestly, after bringing up Rickie Weeks it isn't a bad comparison.  Running in the 800-850 OPS and 110-120 OPS+ range is reasonable with his bat skills.

But making those two adjustments is no picnic either.  And a reason many players like him are sitting at home (or in AAA).

I don't want to minimize Keston's difficulties, but I will take exception to your second point.  He hasn't changed the % of balls in and out of the strike zone.  His Z-Swing, O-Sing and Swing % are all pretty consistent from 2019 to 2021.  The eye test is that he was missing so many balls IN the strike zone and that is born out by his Z-contact% (76.6% to 61.3%) and overall contact% (65.8% to 54.5%). Those are huge changes.  Is there anything else we can learn from the numbers? From his field numbers of Cent%=40.4 in 2019 to 29.3% in 2021 with both pull% and opp% going up.  He has a major timing issue (your very accurate #1). Batted ball/Hard/Med/Soft are consistent with a timing issue, especially with no real change in out/in strike zone.  I don't have access to pitch type/field numbers but he could be ahead of offspead and late on fastballs. There might be some individual pitch numbers that might indicate part of the strike zone (like he's missing high fastballs most of the time).  Either way he is having a massive issue making contact inside the strike zone compared to his rookie year.  While that isn't a simple issue I believe it's the main reason he has cratered the last 2 years. I think the league knows you just need to throw him strikes (high strikes?) and Keston will do the rest.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Even in 2019 when Keston was hitting really well, Hiura struggled with velocity up in the zone - there were games he'd K two straight ABs on a steady diet of fastballs, and then would homer or hit a rope somewhere in his 3rd AB after a pitcher inexplicably gave him a hittable off speed pitch.

The big leg kick seemed to give Hiura problems catching up to velocity - something he hadn't had to address much raking through college and even up into MLB because there just aren't enough guys throwing mid 90s with command at those lower levels.  It's just a split second adjustment he would need to make in order to hit higher velo because his handspeed is elite - but he's spent the past two seasons struggling to make that adjustment.  I really hope the adjustment to his stance/loading mechanism corrects the issue - it's up to him to prove the scouting report of just pounding mid-high strike zone fastballs wrong by doing damage with those pitches, otherwise he won't be able to realize his potential as an elite offensive player in the majors.

[Robocaller]

On 3/18/2022 at 8:13 AM, sveumrules said:

K%+ is the same idea as OPS+ or ERA+, 100 is average. A 141 K%+ means Weeks struck out 41% more than average.

League average K rate has risen from 16.6% in Weeks age 24 season to 22.6% in Hiura’s age 24 season.

Using K%+ accounts for those rapidly changing baselines.

ah, I didn't note the significance of the +.

[zurch1818]

Where is the k%+ stat located? I couldn't find it on fangraphs, baseball reference, or baseball savant.

[JackNicholson1974]

Watching Hiura last year, the dude swung and missed a ton on back-to-back low 90s fastballs in the upper part of the zone. I remember thinking these were not blow me away fast balls it was guys sitting 90-92. Hope he can figure that out.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, zurch1818 said:

Where is the k%+ stat located? I couldn't find it on fangraphs, baseball reference, or baseball savant.

On the FanGraphs leaderboard page it is the second to last tab, after Pitch Info & before StatCast.

Definitely helps when comparing players from different eras. Like Ben Gamel (30.5 K%) & Rob Deer (30.4 K%) have nearly identical K rates, but Gamel has a K%+ of 170 compared to 206 for Deer.

Here’s a direct link to the Brewers +Stats leaderboard going back to 1970…

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=23&season=2021&month=0&season1=1970&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1970-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

[CheezWizHed]

On 3/18/2022 at 10:50 AM, NBBrewFan said:

I don't want to minimize Keston's difficulties, but I will take exception to your second point.  He hasn't changed the % of balls in and out of the strike zone.  His Z-Swing, O-Sing and Swing % are all pretty consistent from 2019 to 2021.  The eye test is that he was missing so many balls IN the strike zone and that is born out by his Z-contact% (76.6% to 61.3%) and overall contact% (65.8% to 54.5%). Those are huge changes.  Is there anything else we can learn from the numbers? From his field numbers of Cent%=40.4 in 2019 to 29.3% in 2021 with both pull% and opp% going up.  He has a major timing issue (your very accurate #1). Batted ball/Hard/Med/Soft are consistent with a timing issue, especially with no real change in out/in strike zone.  I don't have access to pitch type/field numbers but he could be ahead of offspead and late on fastballs. There might be some individual pitch numbers that might indicate part of the strike zone (like he's missing high fastballs most of the time).  Either way he is having a massive issue making contact inside the strike zone compared to his rookie year.  While that isn't a simple issue I believe it's the main reason he has cratered the last 2 years. I think the league knows you just need to throw him strikes (high strikes?) and Keston will do the rest.

Nice post... doing what I was too lazy to do and look up the numbers.  

When I was referring to "out of the zone" swinging, I was specifically meaning up in the zone swing and misses, so I think we are essentially saying the same thing. 

[NBBrewFan]

On 3/15/2022 at 4:37 PM, KeithStone53151 said:

I believe they will, primarily because I'm expecting hiura to bounce back in a big way and force them to.

I agree.  He would also be the likeliest platoon for 1B with Rowdy plus taking some of the DH ABs from Cutch against RH pitchers. 

[NBBrewFan]

15 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Nice post... doing what I was too lazy to do and look up the numbers.  

When I was referring to "out of the zone" swinging, I was specifically meaning up in the zone swing and misses, so I think we are essentially saying the same thing. 

LOL.  I have to look up the numbers because my memory is not what it used to be!  

I believe Bryce Harper was struggling early in his Phillies tenure with the high fastball and it appears that he was able to make the adjustment. I'm not saying Keston is the same talent as Harper, but I'm probably saying Keston is likely smarter, so, he should also be able to make the adjustment.

[markedman5]

Keston with a rocket off the right field wall for an rbi double off of Tyler Mahle.

[Joseph Zarr]

Spicy K is dishing it out HOT in early ST. I am allowing myself to dream of a resurgence. I'm a Brewers fan - all forms of dreaming are encouraged and allowed.

[yourout]

I'm not going to get too excited till he's facing regular season pitching.

That swing still has way too much elevation and decent fast balls at the belt are still going to be a problem.

[markedman5]

Now a bomb way out to left center……on 0-2 pitch

[pitchleague]

And a homer later in the game.  He’s starting to look good again.   But it IS spring training, so I’m still a bit skeptical.

It IS a nice start, though, and gives me some hope (springs attorney)

[homer]

It's nice he's off to a hot start but he had a 935 OPS last spring. His swing did look better to me but I'd have to see one from last year to say if there's a difference.

[Joseph Zarr]

47 minutes ago, homer said:

It's nice he's off to a hot start but he had a 935 OPS last spring. His swing did look better to me but I'd have to see one from last year to say if there's a difference.

He is keyed in right now. His adjustments are translating and he's really driving Center Center-Right which is where he goes when he's dialed. We'll simply have to wait and see how it progresses. The alternative was he came to ST and started off where he loft off - in a lonely place with very little contact.

[Jim French Stepstool]

It's usually tough to see subtle differences in a hitters' mechanics, but it seems to me the leg kick is much less pronounced than in the past. It's an interesting dynamic since he's working with a new hitting coach(es). So far so good, but the season is a novel & he's on the second paragraph of page one.

[igor67]

I want to believe, but it's also possible since it is Spring Training that pitchers aren't attacking him as aggressively. That said I'd rather see him having some success early compared to the alternative.

[tmwiese55]

Obviously good results so far which is better than having the opposite happen.   But, my amateur eye test as a hitting coach still looks like his upper cut finish is still there and too pronounced.   Hope for the best of course but I'm still a bit skeptical. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Good that he's having a nice spring.  Good that he's got himself into a positive mindset, but like others have said, regular season is a lot different than ST.  The swing looks better, honestly, but we'll see how the results look in regular season when pitchers aren't working on their own things, making adjustments, etc, etc, etc.