2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[beekay414]

Also, I wish there was more data on Moore's sophomore season where he hit 16 HRs. Want to see whether they were wall scrapers or not. Reason I state this is because, outside of that season, he's posted an AB/HR in the 30s. It seems to be the outlier and not what he is as a bat.

At Arkansas
2020 - 2 HR in 67 AB (31.5)
2021 - 16 HR in 233 AB (14.56)
2022 - 8 HR in 241 AB (30.13)

Northwoods League
2020 - 3 HR in 119 AB (39.67)

Team USA
2021 - 0 HR in 37 AB

[Eye Black]

4 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Max Wagner. Dominant hitter with a beautiful swing. He's off the board now, but in time we'll realize he should have went top 10.

I think Max Wagner’s awesome, but my point was that you can literally nitpick any player that was available at #27. For instance Max Wagner has slight swing and miss issues and some scouts believe he’s going to have to move to first base. He also has an uppercut to his swing path that could get exposed against higher caliber pitching. See how easy it is! ?

[beekay414]

I think I would've taken either Ivan Melendez or Connor Prielipp at 27. I don't mind the Brown pick that much but Melendez is a draft crush of mine due to the bat and Prielipp's talent level is closer to top 10 than where he was drafted.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

Excellent thoughts.  I tend to be biased to swing for the fences in the first/supplemental rounds (maybe even the 2nd) with high ceiling players then play the remainder of the draft going for high floor types.  I also hate the moving en masse from one type to another as there is never enough data that 1 approach should be abandoned while another should be adopted completely.  We definitely align with the need to balance the different "types" of players.  

I am still mixed on the bats taken last night, but I am on the other side on strategy, at least as far as hitters go. I think you have to take increasing risks as you go on, otherwise you’re just picking the next backup shortstop for Biloxi. All of the safer guys with big league ceilings go in the first round or two. As you get further into the draft, start giving me your guys without a position or with contact issues, your guys coming off injury or from small schools, your cold weather state prep bats and raw high school athletes. I would rather take a shot in the later rounds on someone who never makes it out of the ACL than just taking the most productive big school guy left even if there is no real path for him to become a useful big leaguer.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

I think Max Wagner’s awesome, but my point was that you can literally nitpick any player that was available at #27. For instance Max Wagner has slight swing and miss issues and some scouts believe he’s going to have to move to first base. He also has an uppercut to his swing path that could get exposed against higher caliber pitching. See how easy it is! ?

Reading Wagner’s scouting report…legit power, questionable hit with some swing & miss, arm for 3B but maybe not the actions, from a cold weather state…I got some Alex Binelas flashbacks.

[NBBrewFan]

5 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I would rather take a shot in the later rounds on someone who never makes it out of the ACL than just taking the most productive big school guy left even if there is no real path for him to become a useful big leaguer.

That ACL dropout isn't going to be your next utility infielder/outfielder or middle reliever while that big school guy very well could be (or at least he has the chance as he didn't flame out already). I think we can agree that we could use a decent middle reliever and the last home grown utility infielder was _______, while Taylor may be the utility outfielder we "developed" in the recent past.  I understand these guys all have warts and the farther away from the top rated prospects they get bigger and nastier, I just think that when you have that player who has that big one on the end of his nose, scouts tend to ignore it and some other warning signs and get caught up in intangibles like he's a really great kid that all his coaches love, or he works his tail off, etc. while the kid with a slightly smaller wart who doesn't have the intangibles gets downgraded and we end up with the ACL flameout.

[beekay414]

Think I'd like to swing for upside at 102 today. Either Jake Madden or Jacob Reimer.

[CheeseheadInQC]

6 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

That ACL dropout isn't going to be your next utility infielder/outfielder or middle reliever while that big school guy very well could be (or at least he has the chance as he didn't flame out already). I think we can agree that we could use a decent middle reliever and the last home grown utility infielder was _______, while Taylor may be the utility outfielder we "developed" in the recent past.  I understand these guys all have warts and the farther away from the top rated prospects they get bigger and nastier, I just think that when you have that player who has that big one on the end of his nose, scouts tend to ignore it and some other warning signs and get caught up in intangibles like he's a really great kid that all his coaches love, or he works his tail off, etc. while the kid with a slightly smaller wart who doesn't have the intangibles gets downgraded and we end up with the ACL flameout.

Yah, but eventually you get to the guys who don’t have the tools to be that utility infielder. (I stuck to hitting for a reason. Pitching seems to be its own beast.) I prefer not to be overly negative about individual prospects, but  while the Brewers have generally value hunted, there have been a couple where you look and say, what is the best case scenario here, because the scouting reports describe a maxed out solid college player who doesn’t really have a tool that projects to be MLB level.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Think I'd like to swing for upside at 102 today. Either Jake Madden or Jacob Reimer.

I thought Madden’s profile sounded very Brewer-y. Tyler Cleveland & Spencer Giesting are a couple other pitchers still on the board whose scouting reports looked interesting to me.

1B Alan Roden could be an option for that ever elusive bat only prospect.

[beekay414]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I thought Madden’s profile sounded very Brewer-y. Tyler Cleveland & Spencer Giesting are a couple other pitchers still on the board whose scouting reports looked interesting to me.

1B Alan Roden could be an option for that ever elusive bat only prospect.

AJ Izzi is another HS arm that's highly intriguing. Though, our track record is far better with college/JUCO arms than it is HS. If we're looking college, Duke's Marcus Johnson could be a target but I'm not sure I like him at 102.

[nate82]

Bradley Loftin would be a tough sign but he could be a top of the rotation type of a pitcher.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I am hoping for more pitching today, 5/3 split or something like that.

[SRB]

Eric Longenhangen mentioned that he had Moore in his top 10 last fall, prior to his poor 2022. Doesn't negate the poor spring, but that should at least be reassuring to the doubters that Moore is not just a boring/safe/low-ceiling pick, but that he has genuine upside.

[beekay414]

11 minutes ago, SRB said:

Eric Longenhangen mentioned that he had Moore in his top 10 last fall, prior to his poor 2022. Doesn't negate the poor spring, but that should at least be reassuring to the doubters that Moore is not just a boring/safe/low-ceiling pick, but that he has genuine upside.

Does he, though? He's 5'9" 165 and I made a post showing that his sophomore season is likely the outlier as far as power distribution goes. Every other year, he's been in the 30 AB/HR range.

[SRB]

4 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Does he, though? He's 5'9" 165 and I made a post showing that his sophomore season is likely the outlier as far as power distribution goes. Every other year, he's been in the 30 AB/HR range.

The draft is all about projection and physical skills, not college stats. I certainly don't claim to be an expert or to think that Moore is a lock for a future All Star who we stole in the second round. Just pointing out that a credible prospect evaluator with league sources was very high on Moore's upside.

Not sure why so many people on here are soooo obsessed with power, by the way. There's nothing wrong with an up-the-middle player who only hits 20 HR per year if the rest of his tools are plus. I don't have a problem drafting Xander Bogaerts or Tim Anderson ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, SRB said:

The draft is all about projection and physical skills, not college stats. I certainly don't claim to be an expert or to think that Moore is a lock for a future All Star who we stole in the second round. Just pointing out that a credible prospect evaluator with league sources was very high on Moore's upside.

Not sure why so many people on here are soooo obsessed with power, by the way. There's nothing wrong with an up-the-middle player who only hits 20 HR per year if the rest of his tools are plus. I don't have a problem drafting Xander Bogaerts or Tim Anderson ?

If anything, I see teams moving away from power somewhat unless MLB changes the rules to prevent ever-increasing velocity. In the coming generation of players, there’s going to be a lot of room for high contact, OBP players. 

[beekay414]

10 minutes ago, SRB said:

The draft is all about projection and physical skills, not college stats. I certainly don't claim to be an expert or to think that Moore is a lock for a future All Star who we stole in the second round. Just pointing out that a credible prospect evaluator with league sources was very high on Moore's upside.

I don't disagree but you can take projection, especially from hitters, from their college stats. Plus, Moore's physical profile doesn't scream upside hitter nor does his production. I hope I'm wrong because I don't openly root against these kids, I just have my doubts. 

[beekay414]

Who?

[patrickgpe]

another SS in the 3rd, We sure do love Middle Infielders and centerfielders. 

[patrickgpe]

Just now, beekay414 said:

Who?

another short shortstop

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/profiles/ON/Dylan-ORae-0287596314-4521037968

[beekay414]

He's 5'8" 140 according to Prep Baseball Report. Another contact guy. 

[Platoon Power]

Callis and Mayo pleading someone to help them with a scouting report on our 3rd round pick. LOL

[trwi7]

1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

Think I'd like to swing for upside at 102 today. Either Jake Madden or Jacob Reimer.

You didn’t get your wish

[CheeseheadInQC]

I got nothing

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, trwi7 said:

You didn’t get your wish

Starting to think our scouts have a fetish for midgets