Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

If Stearns can somehow pull off that miracle, he’ll deserve to be in the hall of fame even if he achieves nothing else for the rest of his tenure.

Well teams tried to pull Ohtani away and the Angels stopped listening. So he is either not available or you would have to make a borderline idiotic offer to make it happen.

There is nothing impressive about acquiring guys at the deadline. You just gotta keep throwing stuff at the other team until they say yes. Then you hope to get lucky and hope you didn't give up anything that amounts to anything.

 

[Axman59]

Zero top 100 prospect back for Hader is not how I envisioned his trade going...

I'll leave it at that.

[Lathund]

15 minutes ago, homer said:

I am wary of El Paso numbers

Even adjusted for the league, that's a 145 wRC+ in AAA, 177 wRC+ in AA. There is also the immensely improves strikeout and walk rates, that aren't ballpark dependent. Was 7% BB in the last couple seasons, now doubled to 14%. Strikeout rate cut from the mid 20s to 17%. And 60 stolen bases in less than 80 games on top of that. Looking at where prospects rankings have him it's largely influenced by previous years, he will have seen his stock rise a lot this year. I'm actually quite excited by this. 

Gasser looks like a very Brewers-y pitching prospect. Low arm slot, short arm path, slider/changeup, good K/BB ratio. Would immediately be one of the better pitching prospects in the system. 

Rogers has struggled this year, but still has a 2.35 FIP and a solid track record. I trust they can get him to be a useful player, lessening the impact of losing Hader. 

Lamet is the part I'm unsure about. Super talented and someone they can work with, but is he ever going to be healthy enough to actually get on the mound regularly? I think it was when we played them in SD last year that he left injured (again) and it sounded 100% like he needed TJS at that time. I suspect it's mostly a way to save SD some money, and Brewers figure that doing it in this way there is at least some potential upside to it, however unlikely. 

[Jopal78]

6 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

If Stearns can somehow pull off that miracle, he’ll deserve to be in the hall of fame even if he achieves nothing else for the rest of his tenure.

It's not impossible to think the Brewers could package, Ruiz, Gasser and some of their other prospects for Soto.  A trade of Hader and Prospects for Soto and Taylor Rogers looks a lot better. 

[rickh150]

8 minutes ago, nate82 said:

What if the Brewers are just shedding payroll to pickup Ohtani or Soto?  Would be an interesting strategy.  

Trading for a lead off cf Reynolds’s is my guess. 
Brewers are getting ready to pay for 2023, as well. Lower attendance has to be a part too. 
 

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

Zero top 100 prospect back for Hader is not how I envisioned his trade going...

I'll leave it at that.

At least we got some proven MLB talent.... a guy with 4/5 seasons with an ERA north of 4 in the bullpen and another bullpen guy who is 31 years old with a mid 4 ERA this year. 

But of course...we shall see what they do on the buying end in the next few days. Unfortunately giving up major prospects for relievers is not in the cards of MLB teams these days. 

[rickh150]

Gotta believe Williams is the closer, Rogers gets 8th?

[bill hAll Star]

21 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

For the remainder of this year, Rogers for Hader is about as even a swap as you could possibly ask for...

2022:

2020-22:

 

Lamet is an interesting option to throw into the back of the rotation mix (or bullpen)...

2020-22:

Makes me wonder if his inclusion may allow for someone like Lauer to go in another deal...

Lamet and his elbow likely make him a reliever for the rest of his career.

[GAME05]

Really figured we'd have gotten a better overall prospect in return since it's a mid-season trade.

What are the chances the Brewers decided Hader's recent struggles were more permanent in nature and not just from a mechanics change? And because of that, hurried to accept the best offer they could get right now. Because certainly if Hader struggled the rest of the year, we'd get about nothing in a trade for him in the offseason.

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Trading for a lead off cf Reynolds’s is my guess. 
Brewers are getting ready to pay for 2023, as well. Lower attendance has to be a part too. 
 

I don't think a first place team has every played for next year, but with Hader being traded I do recall there have been rumors about some of the other players on expiring contracts: Wong and Narvaez. 

Maybe the front office is disappointed in the team, and are trying to remodel it on the fly. 

[Playing Catch]

 I think we'll need to wait for the deadline-dust to settle before making too many predictions/judgements.

With that said, I'm as stunned as everyone. I also believe that either...

(A) - The Brewers believe Ruiz can be Carlos Gomez and Gasser to be Eric Lauer while Rogers softens the blow to the BP

Or

(B) - Something else is in the works. I think Soto is out-of-the-question, for my money, but I think the Reynolds possibility would be very real.

[bill hAll Star]

2 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Gotta believe Williams is the closer, Rogers gets 8th?

Maybe they'll go back to playing matchups.

[djoctagone]

adam mccalvy writes that esteury ruiz is expected to begin his brewers tenure in the minors.

[MrTPlush]

Hader's struggles are a bit overblown. Relievers have bad stretches, I doubt it did anything to his trade value. Everyone was panicking after he was simply good in 2020 and he followed it up with a bonkers 2021. I think it has more to do with the Brewers always determined to trade Hader before he hit FA. Guessing they were doing it now or in the offseason. Offseason trades can be a lot more fluky with interest when FA is going on at the same time. 

[SRB]

I feel like I'm one of the most optimistic posters on here, but this return looks terrible...

Rogers is underrated (including with his recent struggles, which were mostly just bad luck), but he's a free agent right away. Lamet is interesting but his arm is so messed up it's unclear if he can be a starter again. The two prospects appear mid-tier?

Ugh

[adambr2]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/josh-hader-trade-padres-brewers-grades?csp=trueanthem&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

[bill hAll Star]

1 minute ago, SRB said:

I feel like I'm one of the most optimistic posters on here, but this return looks terrible...

Rogers is underrated (including with his recent struggles, which were mostly just bad luck), but he's a free agent right away. Lamet is interesting but his arm is so messed up it's unclear if he can be a starter again. The two prospects appear mid-tier?

Ugh

What if Lamet was simply a dominant or good reliever now?  I'd take that.  Of course he struggled earlier this year, but he has gotten it together in AAA.

[Axman59]

I would have much preferred that the Brewers trade Hader in the offseason. Trading one of the best relief pitchers over the last few years for nothing of impact coming back while the team is in 1st place in the division? No.

[GAME05]

I hear Rogers has had a fairly bad-luck BABIP, so certainly moving to a better infield defense in Milwaukee will help.

[JohnBriggs12]

1 hour ago, Eye Black said:

Esteury Ruiz is a legit prospect, but I also wonder if he's in danger of being flipped as part of another trade prior to tomorrow's deadline. 

Padres were one of the favorites for Soto.  Could Ruiz be a guy who helps get Soto?  His minor league numbers this year are phenomenal.

[MoreTrife]

As others have noted, I'm torn on this.

I'm not fully comfortable with Devin as closer. His appearances feel a bit too K-Rod to me, 20 minutes of terror.

I feel like Hader had an expiration coming but it wasn't this year. 

If this is building towards Reynolds, I'm in. If it's for a death blow to minors Soto trade, I'm not.

 

[GAME05]

4 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Hader's struggles are a bit overblown. Relievers have bad stretches, I doubt it did anything to his trade value. Everyone was panicking after he was simply good in 2020 and he followed it up with a bonkers 2021. I think it has more to do with the Brewers always determined to trade Hader before he hit FA. Guessing they were doing it now or in the offseason. Offseason trades can be a lot more fluky with interest when FA is going on at the same time. 

Don't disagree with you one bit, but just speculating on why a top team would trade their closer mid-season instead of letting him play out the year and trading him in the offseason. Or maybe the Brewers were just really underwhelmed at the offers they got this past offseason and we're all really overestimating Hader's trade value.

[brewerfan82]

Just now, JohnBriggs12 said:

Padres were one of the favorites for Soto.  Could Ruiz be a guy who helps get Soto?  His minor league numbers this year are phenomenal.

I'd put the chances of the Brewers acquiring Soto as likely as a first place, contending team trading its All-Star closer mid-sea.... oh...

[bill hAll Star]

2 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

I would have much preferred that the Brewers trade Hader in the offseason. Trading one of the best relief pitchers over the last few years for nothing of impact coming back while the team is in 1st place in the division? No.

Look, I do get that the most dominant closer (well, Diaz is this year) is just different than discussing value of relievers, but...

 

...we're talking about 15-20 innings pitched, in which Rogers is probably 90% the pitcher Hader is.  If that costs us the division...well, it wasn't meant to be.

Maybe it will matter in the playoffs.  Or maybe Hader will give up a brack-breaking homer for the Padres.  It's such a crapshoot and the difference between Hader and Rogers is pretty slim.

[SRB]

2 minutes ago, bill hAll Star said:

What if Lamet was simply a dominant or good reliever now?  I'd take that.  Of course he struggled earlier this year, but he has gotten it together in AAA.

We only have him for 1.5 seasons, so even if Lamet became a dominant reliever overnight (a huge if), we'd be trading 1.5 seasons of maybe the best reliever in baseball for 2.0 seasons of elite relievers (0.5 of Rogers, 1.5 of Lamet), plus two non-elite prospects.

The only way I'm not disappointed in this trade is if they think Lamet can be a top-of-the-rotation starter again. Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Lamet-Lauer/Ashby would be a crazy rotation.