Grade the Deadline

[Harold Hutchison]

44 minutes ago, RightFieldCoder said:

C-

Melvin mentioned that the best time to trade a pitcher (especially a relief pitcher) is at the trade deadline. Every playoff hopeful team needs more pitching. During the winter there are multiple guys available to sign that lessons the trade value. So if we were going to trade Hader it made sense to do so either this year or next.

I'm not thrilled with the return but that was probably the best deal available. If a team is in the playoff hunt and wants to pick up an $11M closer they are not going to trade a major league bat. I think the trade was because the front office thinks we will be in playoff contention next year and may have a better team (and a better chance of winning in October). That would make trading Hader next July a harder pill to swallow. Also less years of control will get us less back in return.

Looking at what SD gave up I'm glad we didn't trade for Bell. It would have cost too much to overbid them. There weren't many other hitters that were significant enough upgrades that seemed to be available. Hopefully some are available this offseason for trades or free agents.

They also got Soto in the deal, so to be honest, we have no clue what was for Soto and what was for Bell in the deal.

That said... to date, this deal hasn't worked out well, and with Lamet to the Rockies on waivers... the deal looks kind of underwhelming unless Rogers does a Boxberger/Moustakas and takes a longer-term deal that is team-friendly.

[dlk9s]

For those in the "Stearns didn't try hard enough to get Soto" camp, the Brewers were not even a consideration for the Nationals:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34371428/how-juan-soto-became-san-diego-padre-biggest-deal-baseball-history

Paywall, so the gist is this. Before other teams knew Soto was available: "....the Nationals identified teams with the combination of farm system, finances and motivation to put together a potentially compelling offer for Soto: the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays."

They eventually narrowed it down to the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Padres. The Nats knew what every team had - unless Stearns quite literally offered the farm, the Brewers had no chance (the "finances" part might have been an issue, too).

 

[UpandIn]

On 8/5/2022 at 12:31 PM, RightFieldCoder said:

Looking at what SD gave up I'm glad we didn't trade for Bell. It would have cost too much to overbid them. There weren't many other hitters that were significant enough upgrades that seemed to be available. Hopefully some are available this offseason for trades or free agents.

I don't know what they gave up for Bell. 

I think when you give up Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Susana, Woods....it's buying a Manson on 100 acres and wondering how much it costs for the old owners to leave in the living room set. It was probably something, but when they're paying the price they're paying...it's kinda meaningless at that point. 

I'd argue they've got 3 guys on that list who's value is at least equal to Chourio(more valuable actually as Washington wanted MLB caliber players back and they got 3 really good ones). 

[rickh150]

My grade now goes down again after letting McGee go. Between McGee and Suter, Lamet could have had a spot in this bullpen easily. Both CC and DS bragged Lamet up and then let him go. 
Down to a D-

[Jopal78]

45 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

My grade now goes down again after letting McGee go. Between McGee and Suter, Lamet could have had a spot in this bullpen easily. Both CC and DS bragged Lamet up and then let him go. 
Down to a D-

Yeah, they sure bungled their roster in the immediate aftermath of the trade. In less than a week they went from having no room on the major league roster for Lamet to calling up Gascan Alexander. 

[LouisEly]

As of yesterday, the Brewers led the majors in OBP, SLG, and (of course) OPS since the All-Star break.

Not getting a bat has, so far, not been an issue.

[rickh150]

20 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

As of yesterday, the Brewers led the majors in OBP, SLG, and (of course) OPS since the All-Star break.

Not getting a bat has, so far, not been an issue.

Red Sox, Pirates, Reds
And yes, we can use a bat because on paper the pitching isn’t better.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

On 8/2/2022 at 5:22 PM, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Can't believe I'm typing this because I've always been an optimist and typically see the logic in what Stearns is doing but I gotta grade this deadline as a D.

No baseball talent evaluator in their right mind would say this lineup has a snowball's chance of scoring enough runs to go deep in the playoffs. Could it happen? Sure, but you can't analytically place high odds on it. It's such a missed opportunity in the history of the organization not to be bold when they have this kind of pitching talent. They're on the side of the equation you want to be when it comes to a wealth of one and a dearth of the other when weighing a teams pitching vs hitting. It's much easier in terms of cost of prospect capital to add impactful hitting than it is for a team with offensive firepower to go out and accumulate high end pitching when it's lacking. It's in fact one of the rare times in Brewers history that the preponderance of talent was on the pitching side. And despite that present state, one in which they could go out and upgrade the easier side to do so, they indeed did nothing on that side. Stunning really.

When you factor in 3 years running of playoff appearances totaling 1 win and 6 losses while averaging 1.57 runs per game, I don't see how you roll with a lineup full of holes and expect anything to be different than the previous 3 cracks at it. Meanwhile they're one year closer to saying goodbye to Burnes and Woodruff after trading away Hader.

It turns out I was being generous with that D grade. Never made sense that the entirety of the deadline in terms of aiding the big club was adding relievers while trading the most dominant reliever in baseball. Compounding the fact that for the second consecutive deadline the relievers acquired were duds, nothing was done to improve any other facet of the team. Squandering these Burns and Woodruff years is going to be lamented by Brewers fans for a long time. Ultimately that sin wipes out most if not all the good Stearns has done. 

[wibadgers23]

For me, the issue was NOT trading Hader.  It was not acquiring a bat.  And the bat they did acquire (Ruiz), spent the last two months in Nashville.  Not sure what Stearns was thinking there.  He traded for a couple of good bullpen arms who did not work out...again.  The deadline was just an epic fail all around.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

For me, the issue was NOT trading Hader.  It was not acquiring a bat.  And the bat they did acquire (Ruiz), spent the last two months in Nashville.  Not sure what Stearns was thinking there.  He traded for a couple of good bullpen arms who did not work out...again.  The deadline was just an epic fail all around.

Their pitching (bullpen and injuries) is 8th of 15 in terms of earned runs allowed. Their hitting is 6th in runs scored.  I don't think adding a hitter suddenly puts them in the playoffs. Rather, they probably shouldn't have traded their closer ostensibly for prospects, and the bullpen arms they did acquire for depth ended up all being colossal busts. 

[titletownking]

D. I would assign an F if not for the unknown of the prospects. Stearns worst season to date. 

[Thurston Fluff]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

It turns out I was being generous with that D grade. Never made sense that the entirety of the deadline in terms of aiding the big club was adding relievers while trading the most dominant reliever in baseball. Compounding the fact that for the second consecutive deadline the relievers acquired were duds, nothing was done to improve any other facet of the team. Squandering these Burns and Woodruff years is going to be lamented by Brewers fans for a long time. Ultimately that sin wipes out most if not all the good Stearns has done. 

To say one in season trade deadline wipes out most if not all the good Stearns has done is overly hyperbolic. Yes, it turned out to be a bad deadline but it didn't lose us a playoff birth on it's own. Injuries had the most to do with that. You can't go a majority of the season missing two to three starters, and not have a drop off. Especially on a team that was built on pitching. I think some of the problem was we were winning with smoke and mirrors early and it caught up with us. The decline started before the trades. I won't deny the trades at best didn't help and may have made it worse but that doesn't wipe out everything Stearns has done.

[owbc]

The revised grade has to be an "F". We're a small market that has limited playoff opportunities and they gave their spot away to the Padres while ruining the clubhouse vibe. Our rivals celebrated on our field. What a disaster. 

I still support what this club is doing but it was definitely a valuable lesson in the unintended consequences of analytics-based decision making. 

[NBBrewFan]

Z-

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The only way this deadline ends up getting anything but an F grade is If Ruiz and Gasser end up being solid MLB contributors for this team. I get why they felt the need to deal Hader, but the MLB talent they got in return was underwhelming at best. Lamet would have been an interesting cog, but they flubbed that one up too. Rogers has had his moments where he's looked ok, but also far too many moments where he's looked downright bad. Bush has been mediocre, but at least he has a terrific arm and is back relatively cheaply next year. Rosenthal was blindfolded dart throw that ended up looking stupid. But to remove the best pen arm in MLB and replace him with a poo-poo platter of mediocrity, and expect to continue to contend for a playoff birth, was an obvious misstep. 

[rickh150]

No playoffs after being around 90% odds of in playoff around July 31…

Offense struggled greatly down the stretch…

Rosenthal didn’t pitch.

Bush and Taylor… unreliable late

Lamet pitched well in Colorado… just gave him away

Hader has turned it around

D- to F

[rickh150]

Melvin never botched a deadline like this…. Just awful.

[pitchleague]

On 8/3/2022 at 7:08 AM, pitchleague said:

I think that I would grade the deadline for the Brewers to be a solid B-

I think Bush will be fine.  I think Rogers and Lamet will be fine.  And the prospects will be fine.

Rosenthal, though, seems to be a wild card, to me.  He could be awesome to have around.  And he could be a complete nothing-burger.  Time will tell.

 

The real reason I graded them a B-, though, is because I am very fearful that trading Hader away has really hurt the clubhouse chemistry and may help out in a precipitous fall in the standings and completely out of the playoffs.  I'm thinking "2021 Padres" kind of fall.  It seems like the clubhouse, as a whole, was not too happy with the trade of their friend.  Clubhouse chemistry is sometimes just as important--if not more important--than the skills they have out on the diamond.  

I just wouldn't be surprised if they win all of 8 games in August and maybe 10 in September.

I hope that I am wrong.

Yikes, I wasn't that far off on every single one of these predictions.  (12 W in August, 15 in Sept.)

I was right on the money about the chemistry thing.  And, pretty much, the precipitous fall.

Ugh.  Bring on Spring Training!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

On 10/3/2022 at 9:44 AM, Thurston Fluff said:

-To say one in season trade deadline wipes out most if not all the good Stearns has done is overly hyperbolic. Yes, it turned out to be a bad deadline but it didn't lose us a playoff birth on it's own. Injuries had the most to do with that. You can't go a majority of the season missing two to three starters, and not have a drop off. Especially on a team that was built on pitching. I think some of the problem was we were winning with smoke and mirrors early and it caught up with us. The decline started before the trades. I won't deny the trades at best didn't help and may have made it worse but that doesn't wipe out everything Stearns has done.

Except that's not at all what I said. His past 2 deadlines have been disasters for one. And that still wasn't what I based my dismissal of any goodwill Stearns has built up. Here are my actual words...

"Squandering these Burns and Woodruff years is going to be lamented by Brewers fans for a long time. Ultimately that sin wipes out most if not all the good Stearns has done. "

I stand by that. In these years that Burnes and Woodruff have become co-aces, the team has exactly one playoff win. Not one series win, one playoff game won. That does indeed offset much of the good Stearns has done. And no, that's not hyperbolic. One playoff win with this kind of pitching is horrendous. In the past 2 playoff pushes all the man has done is trade for relievers who failed and resulted in bullpens that performed worse than prior to the deadline. That's an unacceptable squandering of talent. And 2020 wasn't exactly a banner year either - a 29-31 record that resulted in a 2-0 wild card sweep out of a playoffs they didn't really belong in.

[MrTPlush]

I think I gave them a 'C' because I assumed Stearns would find guys that would cancel out most of the loss of Hader in the regular season. He didn't...not even close.

His grade is an 'F' and it is going to be almost impossible for that to change...regardless of what the prospects do. They would have to become really good players to make up for it. He traded one of our best players and did nothing else at the deadline. He flat out blew the season with his awful deadline. Didn't we lead the division by like 4 games...and he did that? Trading Hader and doing nothing of effort to improve the team was just unacceptable.

[Playing Catch]

I think that there is a false narrative being established that had the Brewers kept Hader the Crew would be preparing to shock the world and win a world series.

Had the Brewers "stood pat" at the deadline and made no moves and still finished outside the playoffs, Stearns would have been vilified for not improving the team; for wasting the golden years of Burnes/Woody.

Had the Brewers added a couple of average BP arms and an extra bat, and STILL finished outside the playoffs, Stearns would again be the scapegoat for not doing enough to take advantage of Burnes/Woody. ("He should have traded for Soto!!)

The baseball gods are fickle, and winning cures all ills.

(FTR, I gave the deadline a D- originally, but now I'm excited about Ruiz and Gasser, and about not having Hader at $15M next season).

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think that there is a false narrative being established that had the Brewers kept Hader the Crew would be preparing to shock the world and win a world series.

Had the Brewers "stood pat" at the deadline and made no moves and still finished outside the playoffs, Stearns would have been vilified for not improving the team; for wasting the golden years of Burnes/Woody.

The Brewers bullpen from August (sometime) until now lead the league in blown leads.  Numero UNO.  They will likely finish 1-2 games out of a playoff spot and I believe that keeping Hader would have likely made up those 2 games based on how the team lost all those games with leads. So we aren't looking at a hypothetical.

I have never argued this team has the talent to shock the baseball world with a miraculous World series drive, There are some who think we just need to get into the playoffs and luck will one day catapult us to a win.  I guess that's because at some point this team needs to even out in the luck department, but I'd rather go for talent over luck.

[MrTPlush]

We didn't even need to keep Hader....just not replace him with a pile of poop.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Had he been here & performed as he did in SD, Hader would've saved us some games recently. he also would've cost us some games in the weeks after the deadline. Games that DW DID save. I suspect at the end of the day it would've been more of the former, and there's also the factor of DW being in the 8th inning role had he stayed. 

I gave it a C at the time. If grading it strictly on the remainder of the season it's certainly an F. But it never was strictly about that. What the prospects do, what avenues they open up for future deals, if one or both get flipped themselves---it certainly does make a difference. 

The Rosenthal deal bothered me more at the time, and still does.

[Pugger]

On 8/10/2022 at 3:14 PM, LouisEly said:

As of yesterday, the Brewers led the majors in OBP, SLG, and (of course) OPS since the All-Star break.

Not getting a bat has, so far, not been an issue.

In the end IMO this was an issue.  The Crew had a devil of a time putting the ball in play, especially with RISP.  When our opponents got more than 3 runs it felt like we were behind by 6.  ?