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Posted
8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Sign Carlos Correa 5years@$40M. Move Adames to third.

 

He'll get a LOT more than that.  I also feel like he is a bit of a dick, so no thank you.

Posted
3 hours ago, Hopper said:

He'll get a LOT more than that.  I also feel like he is a bit of a dick, so no thank you.

Only Max Scherzer is making more per year than that. 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

yes. He refused his option at $35M.

 

This is just beyond ridiculous , could you imagine turning down 35 million a year to play baseball. just think , you can absolutely stink and will still get the money anyway. Disgusting !!!

Posted
3 hours ago, mtsportsfan said:

This is just beyond ridiculous , could you imagine turning down 35 million a year to play baseball. just think , you can absolutely stink and will still get the money anyway. Disgusting !!!

He opted out of the 2/70 left on his deal because he’ll be able to get more than that.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me, though SS market is pretty packed again with Dansby, Xander and Trea joining Carlos in search of the big bucks. 

That’s four of the top five SS by WAR over the last three seasons, with all four also ranking in the Top 15 among all position players.

Here’s how that three year WAR leaderboard looks with contracts…

00 Ohtani (18.6 WAR | 1/30, then FA)
01 Judge (17.9 WAR | FA)
02 Trea (15.9 WAR | FA)
03 JRam (15.9 WAR | 7/141)
04 Freeman (15.2 WAR | 6/162)
05 Goldy (14.5 WAR | 5/130)
06 Machado (14.3 WAR | 10/300)
07 Soto (13.2 WAR | 3/27 Arby)
08 Mookie (13.0 WAR | 12/365)
09 Lindor (13.0 WAR | 10/341)
10 Realmuto (12.7 WAR | 5/115)
11 Nolan (12.1 WAR | 4/129 Opt Out)
12 Xander (12.0 WAR | 3/60 Opt Out)
13 Dansby (12.0 WAR | FA)
14 Altuve (11.9 WAR | 5/151)
15 Correa (11.7 WAR | 2/70 Opt Out)
16 Tucker (11.3 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby)
17 Harper (10.9 WAR | 13/330)
18 Trout (10.7 WAR | 12/426)
19 Semien (10.6 WAR | 7/175)
20 Tatis (10.6 WAR | 14/340)
21 Bichette (10.4 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby)
22 Yordan (10.3 WAR | 6/115)
23 Nimmo (10.3 WAR | FA)
24 Seager (10.3 WAR | 10/325)
25 Riley (10.2 WAR | 10/212)

Few random observations…

Trout only 18th in WAR, makes me feel old. But also shows how insane of value a guy like Tucker is whose three year earnings are less than one paystub tax hit for Harper/Trout just below him.

Same thing but to a slightly lesser extent with a guy like Soto. Sandwiched between three guys on 30 million a year deals, but only got 27 million for all three of his years.

MLB is it’s own economy, some might even say a legalized monopoly or cartel. Their annual revenue is larger than the GDP of something like 60 countries (mostly island nations & Liechtenstein, but still) and in the same neighborhood as Rwanda or The Bahamas.

  • Like 1
Posted

I have a crush on Dodger 1B Miguel Vargas - who is generally ranked around #25-50 in prospect lists. I think he could be an elite hitter - a guy who could pop 20+ HR and hit .300 every year. he struggled in a cup of coffee this year - but has absolutely mashed in the minors.

He's listed as a 3B and OF on various sites - but most people say he is destined for 1B duty. That's fine. I'd happily get the guy and let Rowdy move to DH or let him walk (and move Yelich to DH). 

Vargas is right-handed, but doesn't have huge splits. Although better against lefties, he hits righties just fine. Thus he could play everyday.

With Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers don't have a 1B slot open. So maybe they'd be willing to part with him. The tough part is what would it take to get the guy? Burnes or Woodruff would work (with more coming back to Milwaukee). Same with Adamas. But then you open up a different hole in our lineup. I'm not keen on giving up our own younger guys - Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, etc. But who knows. A lot might depend on what happens with Trey Turner. If he goes, that have a huge hole at SS.

Oh well, just spitballing.

 

Posted
44 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I have a crush on Dodger 1B Miguel Vargas - who is generally ranked around #25-50 in prospect lists. I think he could be an elite hitter - a guy who could pop 20+ HR and hit .300 every year. he struggled in a cup of coffee this year - but has absolutely mashed in the minors.

He's listed as a 3B and OF on various sites - but most people say he is destined for 1B duty. That's fine. I'd happily get the guy and let Rowdy move to DH or let him walk (and move Yelich to DH). 

Vargas is right-handed, but doesn't have huge splits. Although better against lefties, he hits righties just fine. Thus he could play everyday.

With Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers don't have a 1B slot open. So maybe they'd be willing to part with him. The tough part is what would it take to get the guy? Burnes or Woodruff would work (with more coming back to Milwaukee). Same with Adamas. But then you open up a different hole in our lineup. I'm not keen on giving up our own younger guys - Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, etc. But who knows. A lot might depend on what happens with Trey Turner. If he goes, that have a huge hole at SS.

Oh well, just spitballing.

 

I would definitely trade Adames for him if the Dodgers lose Trea Turner in FA. Brice Turang is a tremendous defender at SS. And I would much prefer to extend Burnes or Woodruff as opposed to Adames. 

  • Like 2
Posted
23 hours ago, sveumrules said:

He opted out of the 2/70 left on his deal because he’ll be able to get more than that.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me, though SS market is pretty packed again with Dansby, Xander and Trea joining Carlos in search of the big bucks. 

That’s four of the top five SS by WAR over the last three seasons, with all four also ranking in the Top 15 among all position players.

Here’s how that three year WAR leaderboard looks with contracts…

00 Ohtani (18.6 WAR | 1/30, then FA)
01 Judge (17.9 WAR | FA)
02 Trea (15.9 WAR | FA)
03 JRam (15.9 WAR | 7/141)
04 Freeman (15.2 WAR | 6/162)
05 Goldy (14.5 WAR | 5/130)
06 Machado (14.3 WAR | 10/300)
07 Soto (13.2 WAR | 3/27 Arby)
08 Mookie (13.0 WAR | 12/365)
09 Lindor (13.0 WAR | 10/341)
10 Realmuto (12.7 WAR | 5/115)
11 Nolan (12.1 WAR | 4/129 Opt Out)
12 Xander (12.0 WAR | 3/60 Opt Out)
13 Dansby (12.0 WAR | FA)
14 Altuve (11.9 WAR | 5/151)
15 Correa (11.7 WAR | 2/70 Opt Out)
16 Tucker (11.3 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby)
17 Harper (10.9 WAR | 13/330)
18 Trout (10.7 WAR | 12/426)
19 Semien (10.6 WAR | 7/175)
20 Tatis (10.6 WAR | 14/340)
21 Bichette (10.4 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby)
22 Yordan (10.3 WAR | 6/115)
23 Nimmo (10.3 WAR | FA)
24 Seager (10.3 WAR | 10/325)
25 Riley (10.2 WAR | 10/212)

Few random observations…

Trout only 18th in WAR, makes me feel old. But also shows how insane of value a guy like Tucker is whose three year earnings are less than one paystub tax hit for Harper/Trout just below him.

Same thing but to a slightly lesser extent with a guy like Soto. Sandwiched between three guys on 30 million a year deals, but only got 27 million for all three of his years.

MLB is it’s own economy, some might even say a legalized monopoly or cartel. Their annual revenue is larger than the GDP of something like 60 countries (mostly island nations & Liechtenstein, but still) and in the same neighborhood as Rwanda or The Bahamas.

Yeah , thanks for the nice effort , I wasn't talking about the player I was talking about the kind of money to play a game ( all sports) is just ridiculous. I will say though baseball in particular and the guaranteed contracts is terrible , it really hurts the small market teams if they want to hold to a player and they regress (Yelich). Justify all you want but the money is ridiculous!

Posted

I am not opposed to trading Willy if it means getting great value, however he was be far our best hitter last year (not consistent but best). If we trade Adames we need to make sure we are getting an experienced middle of the order bat somewhere. 

I love Vargas as well, however I would probably give him a chance at 3rd knowing that he could always move to 1st if need be.

Posted

Brewcrew82 had the idea of trading Adames to the Dodgers for Miguel Vargas plus others if Trea Turner bolts for free agency.  That got me thinking what a Burnes + Adames to the Dodgers mega trade would look like.  When the Nationals traded Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers, they got LA's # 1, 2, 17 and an unranked prospect.  Scherzer had just a couple of months left of team control and Burnes has two years so you'd have to figure the package we'd get back would be pretty significant.  

Posted
3 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Brewcrew82 had the idea of trading Adames to the Dodgers for Miguel Vargas plus others if Trea Turner bolts for free agency.  That got me thinking what a Burnes + Adames to the Dodgers mega trade would look like.  When the Nationals traded Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers, they got LA's # 1, 2, 17 and an unranked prospect.  Scherzer had just a couple of months left of team control and Burnes has two years so you'd have to figure the package we'd get back would be pretty significant.  

Yeah I just brought up a similar trade. Looking for a return of like Miller, Stone, Busch, Pages, Vargas or something along those lines.

Posted
23 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Brewcrew82 had the idea of trading Adames to the Dodgers for Miguel Vargas plus others if Trea Turner bolts for free agency.  That got me thinking what a Burnes + Adames to the Dodgers mega trade would look like.  When the Nationals traded Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers, they got LA's # 1, 2, 17 and an unranked prospect.  Scherzer had just a couple of months left of team control and Burnes has two years so you'd have to figure the package we'd get back would be pretty significant.  

That is a mega trade and I am not sure there is a realistic trade for that.  That is nearly $150m in surplus value between Burnes and Adames.  That is a lot to trade for and I think you are getting into the realm of not getting full value for each player.  The Nationals should have gotten more back than what they did for Turner.  If the Nationals would have traded Turner alone they would have received more.  The problem for the Nationals was that Scherzer was going to block any deal unless it was a team he approved to and that list was really short.  So the Nationals had to make the deal or lose Scherzer and only get a draft pick back.  

While the Brewers don't have the problem of Burnes or Adames rejecting a trade there is the problem where you are asking for a lot coming back from the Dodgers.  I don't think a team would want to trade that many pieces for two players.  If you are going to include someone with Burnes I think you include Urias to the deal instead of Adames.  With Urias that would be about $110-115m in surplus value being traded which is an easier number to work with.  You wouldn't have to include 5+ players coming back to make that deal happen.  I just don't see the Dodgers emptying the farm to trade for both Adames and Burnes.  The Dodgers have some bullpen holes to fix along with deciding on their starting rotation for next year.

I think Adames is definitely a fit for the Dodgers but that all depends on how they see Lux.  Is Lux there everyday SS or is he better at 2B?  If the Dodgers don't resign Turner I think they will look else where and won't sign one of the other SS's in FA.  So a trade for Adames would be something I could see the Dodgers being interested in.  This is still a team being ran by Friedman so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even go after any of the FA SS's and instead goes after a SS like Adames in a trade.  This is the same Dodgers team that decided to trade for Turner because they didn't want to pay a premium at SS for Seager. 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, nate82 said:

That is a mega trade and I am not sure there is a realistic trade for that.  That is nearly $150m in surplus value between Burnes and Adames.  That is a lot to trade for and I think you are getting into the realm of not getting full value for each player.  The Nationals should have gotten more back than what they did for Turner.  If the Nationals would have traded Turner alone they would have received more.  The problem for the Nationals was that Scherzer was going to block any deal unless it was a team he approved to and that list was really short.  So the Nationals had to make the deal or lose Scherzer and only get a draft pick back.  

While the Brewers don't have the problem of Burnes or Adames rejecting a trade there is the problem where you are asking for a lot coming back from the Dodgers.  I don't think a team would want to trade that many pieces for two players.  If you are going to include someone with Burnes I think you include Urias to the deal instead of Adames.  With Urias that would be about $110-115m in surplus value being traded which is an easier number to work with.  You wouldn't have to include 5+ players coming back to make that deal happen.  I just don't see the Dodgers emptying the farm to trade for both Adames and Burnes.  The Dodgers have some bullpen holes to fix along with deciding on their starting rotation for next year.

I think Adames is definitely a fit for the Dodgers but that all depends on how they see Lux.  Is Lux there everyday SS or is he better at 2B?  If the Dodgers don't resign Turner I think they will look else where and won't sign one of the other SS's in FA.  So a trade for Adames would be something I could see the Dodgers being interested in.  This is still a team being ran by Friedman so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even go after any of the FA SS's and instead goes after a SS like Adames in a trade.  This is the same Dodgers team that decided to trade for Turner because they didn't want to pay a premium at SS for Seager. 

I highlighted this in my updated payroll blueprint, but I think Adames to the Dodgers for Vargas and Pepiot makes a lot of sense for both sides. For the Brewers, it finally provides you with your 1B of the future, and a high contact one at that, while Pepiot gives Stearns the increased pitching depth that he talked about in his season-ending press conference. Turang takes over at SS for Adames, which is his natural position. 

For the Dodgers, they are substituting what they paid for Turner over the last two years with Adames' last two years of arbitration, and for similar production. I likewise think they're going to be hesitant to dip into the elite FA SS market, including Turner, with all of the other holes they will have to address on their roster, especially on the pitching side of things. I think their main focus is going to be on the FA contingent of DeGrom, Rodon, Verlander, Diaz, and Judge. They need ace postseason pitchers/relievers and a big outfield bat to pair with Betts. 

Posted

How about this 3 team trade.

We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out.

Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

  • Like 1
Posted
23 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

How about this 3 team trade.

We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out.

Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

It's reasonable. Could dispense with Brosseau, since Urshela wouldn't need a platoon partner. Urshela, Adames, Urias, and Turang could cover 2B, SS, and 3B.
Might require getting an OF, as I don't want to rely on 3 rookies.

Posted
13 hours ago, Robocaller said:

It's reasonable. Could dispense with Brosseau, since Urshela wouldn't need a platoon partner. Urshela, Adames, Urias, and Turang could cover 2B, SS, and 3B.
Might require getting an OF, as I don't want to rely on 3 rookies.

I think we would just keep Taylor and the have Yeli at DH as insurance. Probably add a couple vet AAA bats similar to Dahl and Davis from last year.

Maybe throw in Myles Straw and extend that previous trade.

Posted
14 hours ago, jay87shot said:

How about this 3 team trade.

We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out.

Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

You have the Brewers dropping two 2.5 WAR (Renfroe and Wong) players to accomadate a 2.4 WAR player and a rookie that shouldn't be counted as a starter next year. The Brewers are worse after this move.

Posted
5 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

You have the Brewers dropping two 2.5 WAR (Renfroe and Wong) players to accomadate a 2.4 WAR player and a rookie that shouldn't be counted as a starter next year. The Brewers are worse after this move.

Urshela was a 3.1 WAR last year. I would guess Turang, Frelich, Mitchell, and Ruiz/Weimer can be easily a 2+WAR players. They all play good defense and are plus/plus base runners. If they hit even .230 they should hit 2+ WAR.

Also we would have Urias as out utility infielder as well to help of Turang struggles at 2nd.

Posted
20 hours ago, jay87shot said:

How about this 3 team trade.

We get Gio Urshela, the Twins get Amed Rosario, and the Guardians get Renfroe. I would guess that we and/or maybe the Twins might have to give up a little extra to even it out.

Basically all 1 year contracts at 10ish million and each team swaps from a position of depth for a weaker position. We improve 3B and let our young guys play OF. Twins open up 3rd for Miranda and replace Correa. The Guardians have lots of MI depth and could put Kwan in CF, Gonzalez in LF, and Renfroe RF. Additionally some sweetener for Clev. since Rosario would probably has more value than the other 2.

 

24 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Urshela was a 3.1 WAR last year. I would guess Turang, Frelich, Mitchell, and Ruiz/Weimer can be easily a 2+WAR players. They all play good defense and are plus/plus base runners. If they hit even .230 they should hit 2+ WAR.

Also we would have Urias as out utility infielder as well to help of Turang struggles at 2nd.

It's not really an improvement at 3B considering Urias also put up a 3.1 bWAR this season....Also, Renfroe isn't really preventing our young outfielders from getting playing time. They're going to want Yelich to get more at-bats at DH as his defense is hurting his value, which leaves LF and CF open for Frelick, Mitchell, and co. If anything, Renfroe provides valuable insurance in the OF against the inevitable rookie growing pains. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not really an improvement at 3B considering Urias also put up a 3.1 WAR this season....

Urias.  .239/.335/.735.  110ops+ , +2 runs saved in 73 games at 3rd

Urshela .286/.338/.767 121ops+, +4 runs saved in 136 games at 3rd.

Both aren't great base runners. Urshela would bring a lot more consistency and have some potential to add a little to the power stats seeing that our field is a better hitters park. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Urias.  .239/.335/.735.  110ops+ , +2 runs saved in 73 games at 3rd

Urshela .286/.338/.767 121ops+, +4 runs saved in 136 games at 3rd.

Both aren't great base runners. Urshela would bring a lot more consistency and have some potential to add a little to the power stats seeing that our field is a better hitters park. 

Yeah, I just don't know if the value is there. Wouldn't bring much more power than Urias either considering Urias has hit more homers in a single season than Urshela. And Urias has more team control than Urshela. Granted, Urias isn't the one being traded and could be moved to 2B, but then you're limiting Turang's playing time. I think we can probably make better use of our resources. Renfroe may be needed to guard against the inevitable growing pains from our rookie OFs. 

Posted
On 10/15/2022 at 8:48 PM, mtsportsfan said:

Yeah , thanks for the nice effort , I wasn't talking about the player I was talking about the kind of money to play a game ( all sports) is just ridiculous. I will say though baseball in particular and the guaranteed contracts is terrible , it really hurts the small market teams if they want to hold to a player and they regress (Yelich). Justify all you want but the money is ridiculous!

What SHOULD they make? Most sports with strong unions negotiate a split of about 50% of the revenue going toward the players, 50 to the owners. Why shouldn't the players benefit?

Also...it's not like tickets would be a drop down to a buck a seat if you dropped players salaries to say...100K a year. Ticket prices wouldn't be impacted by players salaries being cut, so...give the money to the players or give the money to the owners?

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
On 10/17/2022 at 3:30 PM, nate82 said:

That is a mega trade and I am not sure there is a realistic trade for that.  That is nearly $150m in surplus value between Burnes and Adames.  That is a lot to trade for and I think you are getting into the realm of not getting full value for each player.  The Nationals should have gotten more back than what they did for Turner.  If the Nationals would have traded Turner alone they would have received more.  The problem for the Nationals was that Scherzer was going to block any deal unless it was a team he approved to and that list was really short.  So the Nationals had to make the deal or lose Scherzer and only get a draft pick back.  

While the Brewers don't have the problem of Burnes or Adames rejecting a trade there is the problem where you are asking for a lot coming back from the Dodgers.  I don't think a team would want to trade that many pieces for two players.  If you are going to include someone with Burnes I think you include Urias to the deal instead of Adames.  With Urias that would be about $110-115m in surplus value being traded which is an easier number to work with.  You wouldn't have to include 5+ players coming back to make that deal happen.  I just don't see the Dodgers emptying the farm to trade for both Adames and Burnes.  The Dodgers have some bullpen holes to fix along with deciding on their starting rotation for next year.

I think Adames is definitely a fit for the Dodgers but that all depends on how they see Lux.  Is Lux there everyday SS or is he better at 2B?  If the Dodgers don't resign Turner I think they will look else where and won't sign one of the other SS's in FA.  So a trade for Adames would be something I could see the Dodgers being interested in.  This is still a team being ran by Friedman so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even go after any of the FA SS's and instead goes after a SS like Adames in a trade.  This is the same Dodgers team that decided to trade for Turner because they didn't want to pay a premium at SS for Seager. 

They got a elite catching prospect, a top ~50 pitching prospect and then a older AA OFer who is not much of a prospect and a lottery ticket. That really wasn't much for Turner and Scherzer.

 

The Dodgers did offer Seager a pretty big deal(8 years ~32M per). But he was 2 years younger than Turner in his Free Agent year, though Turner seems to be less of a health risk. It'll be interesting to see how they approach the off-season. I think Turner is the most important part of that Dodgers lineup. 


I'd suspect the Dodgers try and give him a shorter deal with a higher AAV, but we're in a weird place where there's almost a surplus good shortstops and not enough teams with the budget to sign them. 

Boston has lowballed Bogaerts, the Dodgers haven't aggressively tried to retain Turner. The Braves have tried with Swanson, though they've got most of their lineup locked up through this decade and their top prospect is a...SS. 

I don't think we're going to see many, if any SS's who will be getting 10 year deals @30M or more a year. At least not in the immediate future. I think the few teams going after Shortstops are going to push the price down...unless a team really loves a player. The Mets will probably sign Turner to make him a utility player after giving 3/130 to deGrom and 2/90 to Verlander. 

Correa, Turner, Swanson, Boegarts, Anderson(I think that's a Team option though).

The Twins seem all in on Correa, even willing to go into the high 200's to sign him(reportedly). Beyond that, if Boston only wants to Bogaerts 20M a year(he's reportedly insulted that Boston's negotiations thus far included adding on one year and 20M on an already well below market deal), skeptical they'll be in on any of them. The Yankees have Volpe and Peraza(#5 and #50 overall ranked prospects respectively and both in AAA or higher).
The Angels would also seem unlikely, but...maybe they're desperate. So it feels like a very small group of teams going after a group of high end FAs who'd normally be looking at massive deals. 

I think the few teams looking will lower the price and do the opposite with the SPing. Or at least shorten the deal the SS's get. The SPers I expect will get 3years, maybe 5 for deGrom with opt outs again. 40+ for the top couple. 

 

All that to say that I think you're right. If the Dodgers can't get Turner for a 7-8 year deal, I think they're a great fit for Adames. 

I'd ask for Miller and Vargas. The Dodgers are reportedly higher on Pepiot and Stone despite Miller being rated higher. Another sticking point in trading pitchers is the two organizations seem to be very similar in the type of pitchers they target in terms of analytics, spin rate, etc...the pitchers we like are more likely the ones they're high on. 

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