Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

San Diego is not normally considered a large market team. In terms of media market San Diego is 27th in the U.S. and Milwaukee is 37th.

I had a conversation with Sandy Alderson in 2005 about the Padres (I was a Marine stationed at Camp Pendleton at the time and Sandy is a former Mariner and was the guest speaker at our annual USMC Birthday Ball). He lamented that San Diego was actually a small market team because their southern border is Mexico, which does not count for advertising rates in the U.S., and they had two teams and hour and half to the north. Basically, they were boxed in geographically which dramatically reduced their reach.

Also keep in mind that while Milwaukee is the 37th largest media market, the Brewers reach is well beyond Milwaukee since they are the only team in Wisconsin. Thus, they have viewers/fans in Madison, Fox River Valley, Eau Claire, etc.--and that expands their reach by a fair margin.

I suspect the Padres are borrowing money to fund their current team. Which certainly is justifiable given the team's value.

Certainly having an owner in Pete Seidler who is willing to throw all his chips into the pot plays a role as well. No one would deny that Attanasio takes a substantially more conservative and measured approach to roster building. 

[owbc]

San Diego is one of a chunk of mid-market MLB teams that can really spend if they want to but also go through rebuild cycles and haven't hit the sustained success of some of the big, big markets. 

It helps being a one-sport town that is fairly high income as a whole. 

One always wonders how permanent the current state of MLB is. Like is it possible for the Dodgers to ever be bad again? The mid-markets are more likely to ramp up and then ramp down spending -- Washington DC has been ramping down lately, Seattle is ramping up. Sometimes it feels like the Brewers are on the same playing field as these teams, but then they see a window of opportunity and can spend like crazy for a few years. 

We're seeing San Diego shrug off some really bad decisions like the Hosmer contract and the same might be the case for Robbie Ray in Seattle. The Yelich contract would be way less of a problem for them than it is for the Brewers. 

[Thurston Fluff]

Question for those who think we should have kept Hader based on what he's doing now: Should we have also traded for Soto and made several high end free agent signings over the past several years? It's the combination of all those things that got the Padres where they are now. You can't just cherry pick the one thing and say that put them over the top. He's helping now for sure but he also made it harder to get to this point. They were capable of riding out his rough stretch because of everything else they did prior to that trade. We didn't have that luxury.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Axman59 said:

 

Also keep in mind that while Milwaukee is the 37th largest media market, the Brewers reach is well beyond Milwaukee since they are the only team in Wisconsin. Thus, they have viewers/fans in Madison, Fox River Valley, Eau Claire, etc.--and that expands their reach by a fair margin.  (I do recognize there are a number of fans in Kenosha County who follow the Cubs and fans in NW Wisconsin who follow the Twins).

I suspect the Padres are borrowing money to fund their current team. Which certainly is justifiable given the team's value.

I would argue the opposite, there might be big swaths of land in Wisconsin and parts of the UP that are the Brewers "media market" but outside of Madison, Green Bay its all small towns (under 75,000 and in most cases less than that).

The Brewers are in a crappy market with no real room for growth as they're penned in by Minnesota to the Northwest, The Cubs to the South and Southwest, The White Sox to the South, and Detroit to the East. 

[SF70]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I would argue the opposite, there might be big swaths of land in Wisconsin and parts of the UP that are the Brewers "media market" but outside of Madison, Green Bay its all small towns (under 75,000 and in most cases less than that).

The Brewers are in a crappy market with no real room for growth as they're penned in by Minnesota to the Northwest, The Cubs to the South and Southwest, The White Sox to the South, and Detroit to the East. 

And even with a new local tv deal that pays $40M/year, it’s still one of the smallest in baseball and at least $20M less than SD gets. 

SD also drew more than 600,000 fans than MKE did and at higher ticket prices. They also own real-estate outside of Petco park that pays them untold millions.

$100M+ more in revenue, easy, which just happens to be the disparity in payroll between the two teams.

 

[wiguy94]

Just now, SF70 said:

They also own real-estate outside of Petco park that pays them untold millions.

 

This is the big one that most people don’t even consider. With AmFam’s location it’s not really ever something the Brewers will have. A huge disadvantage for us going forward as things like this become more and more popular. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Question for those who think we should have kept Hader based on what he's doing now: Should we have also traded for Soto and made several high end free agent signings over the past several years? It's the combination of all those things that got the Padres where they are now. You can't just cherry pick the one thing and say that put them over the top. He's helping now for sure but he also made it harder to get to this point. They were capable of riding out his rough stretch because of everything else they did prior to that trade. We didn't have that luxury.

 

It's not about trading Hader as much as it was about Stearns evaluation.  He missed how important Hader was to team chemistry then he acquired an underwhelming amount of talent for a perennial all-star and the best left-handed reliever in baseball the last 3 years.  In essence, people are pissed because Stearns gave away the best reliever in Milwaukee history.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Question for those who think we should have kept Hader based on what he's doing now: Should we have also traded for Soto and made several high end free agent signings over the past several years? It's the combination of all those things that got the Padres where they are now. You can't just cherry pick the one thing and say that put them over the top. He's helping now for sure but he also made it harder to get to this point. They were capable of riding out his rough stretch because of everything else they did prior to that trade. We didn't have that luxury.

 

It's not about trading Hader as much as it was about Stearns evaluation.  He missed how important Hader was to team chemistry then he acquired an underwhelming amount of talent for a perennial all-star and the best left-handed reliever in baseball the last 3 years.  In essence, people are pissed because Stearns gave away the best reliever in Milwaukee history.

 

Far enough. I tend to think something turning out to be a mistake isn't bad as long as there was valid reasoning behind the decision. Looking back it was a mistake to think we could win this season while adding for the future. Had they just traded Hader for prospects then I'd say it was wrong. The more bites at the apple thing also means taking the bites when they are there. Taking away this season to help next is no better than giving away future seasons to add to this one. But we didn't do that. We tried to make up for losing Hader by getting more relievers. It made sense at the time but failed over time. That doesn't excuse trading for a guy who was injured forever or trading the DFAing one of the returns but I can at least understand the thought process at the moment.

As far as how badly it hurt the team moral, players needed to get over it faster than they did. While I understand team dynamics and these are human beings I also expect professionalism. After the initial shock went away the whole change of team chemistry should have been overtaken by the need to figure out how to win with what they had not what they wanted to have or what they lost. I can excuse a couple weeks due to the changes but not two months. After a certain point it was on the players to move on. It didn't appear they did that.

[Axman59]

When I see people write that the Brewers players need to be more professional and get over gut punch trades like this I think of the argument from people who opposed the DH when told that pitchers are terrible hitters and them hitting diminished the game. Those people said, "well pitchers should hit better and then it's not a problem."

It's a nice thought but it denies reality.

In a perfect world the players would shake off losing their good friend and long-time closer while they were 3 games up in the division and looking forward to a playoff birth. But we don't live in a perfect world. My advice would be to avoid trading away key players during a legitimate pennant chase. Save that for when the team is out of contention (or in the offseason).

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Padres had what was considered a crazy loaded farm system for the better part of the last decade, and it allowed them to bring in a ton of talent as they've also skyrocketed their payroll for this window to try and win a ring.  They pretty much have to take this approach because they're in the same division as the Dodgers.  Having the setup they have with the City of San Diego and surrounding development revenues around Petco and non-baseball events they host does make a significant difference in terms of consistent $'s coming in the door, too.

People talk about San Diego being sandwiched in geographically because of Mexico and LA....I think they've embraced that geography and really do appeal to mexican fanbases who live in that area.  That may not count in terms of TV advertising revenue/market size, but it definitely helps with marketability in that part of the country.  I'd argue the Brewers are much more boxed in geographically in terms of market size - Chicago is due south and they really share 1/2 of their home state's area with the neighboring Twins once you get west of Wausau.

I'm still fine with the Brewers trading Hader, even though I was long a proponent of taking things year to year with him and either trading him at next year's deadline if they weren't contending, or just letting him leave in FA after getting 6 awesome years of prime HOF-caliber production from his left arm as a Brewer.  Had they not traded Hader, I don't think it would've moved the needle much at all in terms of their 2022 postseason chances...and I think the return they got for him was really good because I like both Ruiz and Gasser longterm.  My only issue with the trade itself was if they simply included Lamet as salary relief for the Padres, they should have either balked at that or asked for another prospect in the minors.

[UpandIn]

On 10/20/2022 at 5:40 PM, SF70 said:

And even with a new local tv deal that pays $40M/year, it’s still one of the smallest in baseball and at least $20M less than SD gets. 

SD also drew more than 600,000 fans than MKE did and at higher ticket prices. They also own real-estate outside of Petco park that pays them untold millions.

$100M+ more in revenue, easy, which just happens to be the disparity in payroll between the two teams.

 

Right. This is the massive difference. The investments in other revenue sources, the ticket prices are...3X the price IIRC, maybe even 4. 

Also it's SD. I love our fine City, but if you're not from here(hell, even if you are) if you have millions of dollars on the table from either place, SD is usually going to win out. Plus, it's home to FAR more American born players. 

It's certainly not as simple as market size. 

Quote

Petco Park has become a "revenue engine" for the Padres, enhanced by "reliably gorgeous weather and other San Diego charms," according to Tom Krasovic of the SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE. The ballpark can "fatten the team’s payroll relative to other teams in small media markets," expanding President of Baseball Operations & GM A.J. Preller’s "margin for error in constructing a roster."

https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/mixed-use/san-diego-padres-tishman-speyer-tailgate-park-redevelopment-35-million-112135

 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Right. This is the massive difference. The investments in other revenue sources, the ticket prices are...3X the price IIRC, maybe even 4. 

Also it's SD. I love our fine City, but if you're not from here(hell, even if you are) if you have millions of dollars on the table from either place, SD is usually going to win out. Plus, it's home to FAR more American born players. 

It's certainly not as simple as market size. 

 

https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/mixed-use/san-diego-padres-tishman-speyer-tailgate-park-redevelopment-35-million-112135

 

There's a reason there's talk of converting some of the vast parking space around AFF into an entertainment/"beer" district. Those are becoming significant revenue generators for professional sports teams. It makes sense, as there's little for 365-day entertainment in the area immediately surrounding AFF. It doesn't have to be the Deer District, but it could serve a nice little niche for people who don't want to venture all the way downtown and have to find parking, etc. 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Padres had what was considered a crazy loaded farm system for the better part of the last decade, and it allowed them to bring in a ton of talent as they've also skyrocketed their payroll for this window to try and win a ring.  They pretty much have to take this approach because they're in the same division as the Dodgers.  Having the setup they have with the City of San Diego and surrounding development revenues around Petco and non-baseball events they host does make a significant difference in terms of consistent $'s coming in the door, too.

People talk about San Diego being sandwiched in geographically because of Mexico and LA....I think they've embraced that geography and really do appeal to mexican fanbases who live in that area.  That may not count in terms of TV advertising revenue/market size, but it definitely helps with marketability in that part of the country.  I'd argue the Brewers are much more boxed in geographically in terms of market size - Chicago is due south and they really share 1/2 of their home state's area with the neighboring Twins once you get west of Wausau.

I'm still fine with the Brewers trading Hader, even though I was long a proponent of taking things year to year with him and either trading him at next year's deadline if they weren't contending, or just letting him leave in FA after getting 6 awesome years of prime HOF-caliber production from his left arm as a Brewer.  Had they not traded Hader, I don't think it would've moved the needle much at all in terms of their 2022 postseason chances...and I think the return they got for him was really good because I like both Ruiz and Gasser longterm.  My only issue with the trade itself was if they simply included Lamet as salary relief for the Padres, they should have either balked at that or asked for another prospect in the minors.

-They STILL have a lot of talent in that system. Nothing like they've had, but...a couple of arms with big upside and at least a few top 100 prospects even after giving up the biggest prospect haul ever? 

-And I agree with you on the other aspects...mostly. The Brewers are boxed in. The Pads have two big market teams 2 hours away, we've got two 90 minutes away. They have Mexico to the South...but they have not been very popular in Mexico(8th most popular team apparently). That means they have room to grow and probably why they've started and will continue to play some games there. So the potential for growth is...exponentially higher than ours. It feels like if you go more than an hour away from Milwaukee, most people don't really care about the team unless they're in the playoffs. I don't know if that's true or my perception, but either way, the Pads clearly can do a whole lot better moving forward than we can.

-I was fine with the Hader trade as well. The Lamet aspect of it annoyed the hell out of me, the Rosenthal trade made me scratch my head(I tried to be optimistic). But the trade certainly made sense. We're pretty thin on pitching(though also not a fan of the Bush trade for that reason, but...over and done with). 

The logic made sense...you get another lefty reliever, you add a second SU man in Bush, then hope for the best with Rosenthal. That's 3 guys who teamed with Williams could make a nice BP. Just didn't work out. 

 

[UpandIn]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There's a reason there's talk of converting some of the vast parking space around AFF into an entertainment/"beer" district. Those are becoming significant revenue generators for professional sports teams. It makes sense, as there's little for 365-day entertainment in the area immediately surrounding AFF. It doesn't have to be the Deer District, but it could serve a nice little niche for people who don't want to venture all the way downtown and have to find parking, etc. 

I thought they were gonna do that years ago with all the abandon warehouses/factories. Hopefully they move forward in the future. 

The Brewers will never be able to spend like those other larger market teams or even the Cards/Pads, but I think they can be a bit more competitive in the immediate future with more money coming in. 

[SomewhereInTime]

On 10/20/2022 at 3:03 PM, Jopal78 said:

I would argue the opposite, there might be big swaths of land in Wisconsin and parts of the UP that are the Brewers "media market" but outside of Madison, Green Bay its all small towns (under 75,000 and in most cases less than that).

The Brewers are in a crappy market with no real room for growth as they're penned in by Minnesota to the Northwest, The Cubs to the South and Southwest, The White Sox to the South, and Detroit to the East. 

The Fox Valley metro area consists of over 450,000 people.  This is a higher population than the Green Bay metro area which consists of around 320,000 people.

[Thurston Fluff]

21 hours ago, Axman59 said:

When I see people write that the Brewers players need to be more professional and get over gut punch trades like this I think of the argument from people who opposed the DH when told that pitchers are terrible hitters and them hitting diminished the game. Those people said, "well pitchers should hit better and then it's not a problem."

It's a nice thought but it denies reality.

In a perfect world the players would shake off losing their good friend and long-time closer while they were 3 games up in the division and looking forward to a playoff birth. But we don't live in a perfect world. My advice would be to avoid trading away key players during a legitimate pennant chase. Save that for when the team is out of contention (or in the offseason).

 

How long do you think we'll remain competitive if Stearns doesn't do whats best for the team because a few players can't figure out how to play unless certain players are on the team?

This isn't a situation where players struggle because someone died or they're going through a divorce or some other hardship. I understand that sort of thing can seriously mess with a person for a long time. If you can't figure out how to do your job two months after a co-worker leaves that not your boss's fault it's yours. I gave them a pass for the first couple weeks to adjust but at some point it becomes an excuse for failing not the reason behind it.

[SomewhereInTime]

Pennant on the line, elimination game, and the one inning reliever doesn't pitch.

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Pennant on the line, elimination game, and the one inning reliever doesn't pitch.

Why arguments that Hader is more impactful than (potentially) a high-level starter such as Gasser just don't carry that much weight with me. How much impact can a guy have if he is only limited to pitching in the 9th???

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Pennant on the line, elimination game, and the one inning reliever doesn't pitch.

At least Hader will be well-rested for his arbitration hearing 

[MrTPlush]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:26 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

There's a reason there's talk of converting some of the vast parking space around AFF into an entertainment/"beer" district. Those are becoming significant revenue generators for professional sports teams. It makes sense, as there's little for 365-day entertainment in the area immediately surrounding AFF. It doesn't have to be the Deer District, but it could serve a nice little niche for people who don't want to venture all the way downtown and have to find parking, etc. 

It doesn’t make any sense and someone with the team once mentioned it didn’t really seem logical.

The area around AFF is garbage and no one is going to go around whatever you build.

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

It doesn’t make any sense and someone with the team once mentioned it didn’t really seem logical.

The area around AFF is garbage and no one is going to go around whatever you build.

Oh, for sure, it's definitely still in the hypothetical stage, and may never develop beyond that.

But, I would never say never given how significant of a revenue-enhancer that sort of thing has proven to be across professional sports, and the fact that teams will always be looking to maximize their revenue streams. Attanasio's goal is to make AFF a year-round entertainment destination beyond the 81 home game days. He's arguably started that with the addition of X-Golf. There will inevitably be a natural progression which may or may not culminate with the creation of an entertainment district, but it will continue to be discussed and hypothesized, probably starting with the upcoming renovations fight. 

FWIW, not that they're identical situations, but the site of the Battery in Atlanta (Cobb County) wasn't anything special before the ballpark was built. God knows they have enough space surrounding AFF. 

[torts]

Now that san Diego has been eliminated, guess they didn't win this trade, did they?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, torts said:

Now that san Diego has been eliminated, guess they didn't win this trade, did they?

They went all in in an effort to eliminate their arch rival, the Dodgers. They accomplished that goal. Then baseball happened. 

[MrTPlush]

11 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Oh, for sure, it's definitely still in the hypothetical stage, and may never develop beyond that.

But, I would never say never given how significant of a revenue-enhancer that sort of thing has proven to be across professional sports, and the fact that teams will always be looking to maximize their revenue streams. Attanasio's goal is to make AFF a year-round entertainment destination beyond the 81 home game days. He's arguably started that with the addition of X-Golf. There will inevitably be a natural progression which may or may not culminate with the creation of an entertainment district, but it will continue to be discussed and hypothesized, probably starting with the upcoming renovations fight. 

FWIW, not that they're identical situations, but the site of the Battery in Atlanta (Cobb County) wasn't anything special before the ballpark was built. God knows they have enough space surrounding AFF. 

More like a fantasy...not impossible they could do something...but a huge stretch. Part of the problem...the community around AFF isn't exactly filled with the type of demographic this is going to utilize such a concept. My first thought was to put in some fancy trendy apartments within it. A lot of cities these days are sticking apartments above commercial spaces...then mixing in some office space. I believe the battery was done in such a fashion. 

The problem the Brewers would run into is the fact the city of Milwaukee is unlikely to support it. Support it financially, that is. The trend these days is to try and pull people back downtown. A great downtown involves people living downtown and have those activities downtown. If the Brewers were in a downtown location the city would be much more likely to help with costs. I just can't imagine the Brewers investing hundreds of millions to hope it works out. 

[torts]

24 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

They went all in in an effort to eliminate their arch rival, the Dodgers. They accomplished that goal. Then baseball happened. 

Oh, I forgot, beating arch rivals is why you make trades ?