Hunter Renfroe to Angels for 3 pitchers

[Thurston Fluff]

29 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Surely we're smart enough to make the distinction between the Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Josh Hader, Willy Adames types...and the type of players who play a key role, but wouldn't be considered for a qualifying offer, no?

Keeping Hunter Renfroe for another year was not going to send us down the same road as the Marlins(who don't actually do this) or the Padres.

Again, these are three pitchers, the BEST of which was the 26th ranked prospect in the Angels organization. 

That's not changing the direction of any organization. 

I'd say claiming he's the best hitter points to that not being true for some but that's beside the point. This is an extension of the same strategy as trading Hader. We just have to accept our best players, obviously given Renfroe was our best hitter he qualifies as that, are going to be traded before we have to let them go for next to nothing. I agree with that strategy. Even if I didn't, I can at least recognize that is the strategy and not get bent out of shape every time it happens.

As far as what we got in return I said I don't know enough about them to say much about it. Then again neither do you. Nobody does outside of reading up on what they've done so far. Yes they are from a system devoid of pitching prospects but is that because of poor development or poor pitchers? Lets get them here and see what we have before determining they have to suck because they come from a team that can't produce good pitchers. One year of Renfroe wasn't going to get us a can't miss prospect but that doesn't mean it can't get us more value than that one year of Renfroe.

[AdvantageSchneider]

42 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

?
Yes...because I don't like trading away our best hitter...and not only that, one of the few hitters we have who could hit lefties...an area we were VERY bad at least year to save 11M dollars to be spent on upgrades at 3B/1B/DH...which will almost certainly not come to pass just based on the players available at those positions NOT being upgrades or the one or two who are being in their mid to late 30s and very much not fitting your "wrong side of 30" rationale for this trade...then I must go outside.

You seem equally upset because I just...simply don't agree with you and have responded with a very condesending explanation of why you're subjective rationale is so much more reasonable. Perhaps...you may need to go outside? I don't know...I personally just spent 4 days outside and it was cold and miserable. I'm nice, warm and happy right now, I'm just talking about a move the Brewers made that I don't like. Could it be you're projecting a bit because I'm not blindly agreeing with you? 

Very kind of you. 

But I thought it was better to get rid of a player one year too early rather than one year too late?
The guy who raised his OPS by about 20 points due to a 3HR game late in the year and who's defense saw a MAJOR drop off...I guess he doesn't apply to this line of thought because it's not the company line?
But you are right. You are just guessing. Which means you're stating an opinion. Something apparently when I do...it's not alright and I'm took worked up? LOL...alright. 

Yes...but he'll be on the "wrong side" of 30, remember? And he had HIS career year two years ago, he's coming off a season in which he was injured. Are these not all the arguments you made for trading Renfroe?

The DIFFERENCE being, if you keep Woodruff a year too late, it can set back your entire organization. If you keep Renfroe a year too long... you have a power hitting RFer for an extra year and he MIGHT not hit quite as well as he did last year(which would be pretty much every other year of his career). 

And what of those "facts" do you believe I was unaware of?

He dealt with shoulder injuries last year. Those are BAD for pitchers. So it only stands to reason you trade him now. Better trade him a year too soon than a year too late, right? 

If that is absolute, across the board logic(as another poster confirmed) then why would that not be applicable with a young pitcher who's thrown over 100 innings ONCE in his career and in back to back years has missed time at the end of the season due to injuries?

Surely it'd be better to trade him a year too early rather than a year too late? I mean, it's ALWAYS better, no? 

Burnes by that logic should be traded. If you trade him next year and he's not as good as this year, that'll be 3 straight years he's regressed and he'll only have one year of service time available and you'll get less in return for him. 

 

But I take it from your objections with Woodruff and then Peralta, it's NOT always better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late? Only when...the Brewers do it? 

Unless that's just an inane and ridiculous oversimplification and there should be a GREAT deal more that goes into it than that. Then...well then I suppose you may have a point. But that's not the argument originally made. 

I'm also hearing about how we can take this money we're saving and put it to use for a 3B, 1B/DH.

Who are the viable 3B Free Agents that you'd argue would be upgrades? 1B/DH? Again, seems like it's pretty much Abreu. 

TLDR

Not really much hope for you if you can't tell the difference in value between Woody and Renfroe.  Not going to waste my time trying to educate you.  Have a nice day.

[AdvantageSchneider]

29 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

My two cents:  The Angels have almost no pitching depth and are desperately looking for pitching.  They were willing to dump every one of these guys for one year of an outfieldeer who is now with his 5th team in 5 years and going to make around $11M. Make no mistake about it, no matter what Arnold says, this was a straight up salary dump. 

Is it a salary dump if they take that $11M and spend it somewhere else?  I think we need to see what the opening day payroll is before we can say if this was a salary dump or not.

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Renfroe literally had a higher OPS, SLG and BA the year before in Boston in more ABs. 

He also has a ~900 OPS vs lefties(which we struggle badly to hit). He's 31 and it was one more year. 

You just got rid of the best hitter on the team, one who hits lefties. So...really hope you got some talented arms that can make an impact as there's really no reason to expect a big drop off next year. 

2021 OPS+ =114; 2022 OPS+ = 122

Either way, the two seasons were nearly identical and selling him at his peak was the point.... 

[CheezWizHed]

10 minutes ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

TLDR

Can you please use 3 letter acronyms? These 4 letter acronyms exceed my attention span...  ?

[owbc]

40 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Overall I think fans have to get used to the idea that the Brewers essentially have players for five years not six. Then they will be traded for far more value than one year of said player will provide. If they make good deals and develop players well they'll win more games than any other possible way they could operate. The alternative is to do what the Marlins did and the Padres seem to be doing now. Suck for years on end then trade all their young players, farm talent and spend wildly on free agents to go for it in a short window. What is not an option is to spend our way to winning. We just have to accept that. I do. In fact I like it this way. Winning one title this way is a no strings attached win. There is no "you should win given all the money you spent." The big spenders will never win as David only Goliath. Winning one as a Yankee or Dodger fan is  fun and all but they know they should win it given the advantages they have. They know deep down they're the kids cheering on the bully who just beat up the kid half his size who walks with a limp.

This trade make sense in that regard. I don't know what to think of the return. I like that they're all at high enough a level that they can help sooner than later if they can help at all. It sure does help our pitching depth if it doesn't provide immediate help opening day.

 

I don't think I could be an MLB fan in this era if the Brewers were my only team. It's just too frustrating to see what the Brewers have to do to field a competitive team every year. Bad baseball teams are brutal to watch. Even the mediocre Brewers of 2022 were tough to watch. Obviously all teams go through down periods but seeing the Brewers tread water in mediocrity right now is especially frustrating when the NLCS was Philadelphia vs. San Diego -- two teams that we could have easily finished above in the standings if we had a league-average payroll. 

Now we're dumping assets that could help us in 2023 to save money. I agree with the strategy given the constraints, but 2/3 of MLB teams would probably hang onto the assets until mid-season to ease the transition with the rookies. That could very likely end up costing us a playoff spot if we dig too big of a hole to climb out of. 

As for big markets winning the World Series...Astros fans sure looked like they were having fun celebrating and I'm sure it was more than satisfying to shove it in the face of the other 29 fanbases that call them cheaters. And for all the flaws of baseball's economics, the current system does keep things fairly level at the top and the playoffs allow for enough upsets to keep the mid-market fans happy. So the Goliaths don't feel like Goliath. Yankees fans probably think they are just as tortured as Brewers fans. 

[nate82]

Renfroe was either going to be traded or kept on the team.  The problem is that his value will equal about what his salary will be so there is no surplus to trade from.  Which is why the return is rather light for a really good hitter.  Renfroe has a value of about $12m and his expected salary is about $11m.

I believe the Brewers think they can get something close to what Renfroe provided with Taylor, Frelick, Ruiz and Mitchell at a lower cost.  It is a risky bet but we also don't know if the Brewers will use Renfroe's money on anyone yet.

[Thurston Fluff]

2 minutes ago, owbc said:

As for big markets winning the World Series...Astros fans sure looked like they were having fun celebrating and I'm sure it was more than satisfying to shove it in the face of the other 29 fanbases that call them cheaters. And for all the flaws of baseball's economics, the current system does keep things fairly level at the top and the playoffs allow for enough upsets to keep the mid-market fans happy. So the Goliaths don't feel like Goliath. Yankees fans probably think they are just as tortured as Brewers fans. 

The Yankee fans look like they're having fun as do the Dodgers fans when they win it all. But how much fun compared to how much disappointment when they don't win every year? We probably had more fun as Brewers fans in 2018 than the Dodger fans had that year. They hated it because they were supposed to win it all and failed. We enjoyed it because we were the little engine that could (couldn't resist another metaphor) and went further than anyone could reasonably expect. Extrapolate that out to what happens when a team like the Brewers actually do win it all and I think small market fans enjoy the title more than large market fans do.

[Brewcrew82]

I will say that, with Renfroe now gone and Wong likely to follow, I will expect that the FO extend at least one of Burnes, Woody, Adames this offseason. They pretty much owe it to the fan base right now. And I will definitely join the chorus of FO-bashing if they do absolutely nothing with this increased payroll flexibility. I don't expect it like some others, but it is a possibility that lingers in the back of my mind. 

[Harold Hutchison]

31 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course, they'll experience at least some struggles. That's just the reality of major league baseball. 

However, the style of baseball they play is far more conducive to consistent offense than what we've seen over the last few years. Rather than being focused on hitting home runs to score, these guys have demonstrated a proven ability to get on base at a high level throughout their minor league careers, and once on base, possess the game-changing speed to take extra bases and manufacture increased runs. 

I don't get why you assume they'll be consistently bad. Sal Frelick, for example, possesses a virtually identical skillset to Steven Kwan, who hit .298 and accumulated over 5.0 WAR setting the table for Cleveland's division winning lineup this season. 

To be frank, the Brewers did seem to fall short with a LOT of fundamentals in the offense, How many Ks with RISP and less than 2 out have we seen? Far too many for a consistent offense.

Heck, we could even be teaching those fundamentals to the guys who focus on the home runs - give them an extra skill that other teams have to at least think about...

[MVP2110]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

To be frank, the Brewers did seem to fall short with a LOT of fundamentals in the offense, How many Ks with RISP and less than 2 out have we seen? Far too many for a consistent offense.

Heck, we could even be teaching those fundamentals to the guys who focus on the home runs - give them an extra skill that other teams have to at least think about...

The Brewers had the 2nd best OPS with RISP & the 14th most strikeouts. They were pretty good in RISP situations

[Jeff Meyer]

Crazy proposition Seattle interested in Wong here is my proposal 

Wong and Huira and or Taylor if necessary to 

Seattle for 3b / DH Eugenio Suarez 

Under contract 11mill 2023 and 2024 with 15 mill Club Option in 2025

2022 stats 150 games .236 ave 31 HR and 87 RBI. He’s 31 yrs old 

[Harold Hutchison]

8 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

The Brewers had the 2nd best OPS with RISP & the 14th most strikeouts. They were pretty good in RISP situations

How did the OPS break down between OBP and slugging?

[SRB]

Clearing salary to sign Brandon Nimmo ?

[MVP2110]

2 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

How did the OPS break down between OBP and slugging?

3rd in both with a .350 OBP & .448 SLG

[Harold Hutchison]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

3rd in both with a .350 OBP & .448 SLG

Not bad... I'd be interested in how much of the OBP was hits versus walks/HBP...

[Lathund]

The only reason I see to be negative about this trade is if the money saved won't get spent elsewhere. I'm about as certain as I can possibly be that the payroll come April will be $11m or more higher than it is now, but obviously I can still be wrong about it. 

But let's look at the trade itself. I think there are a lot of overreactions here; Renfroe is a good hitter for sure, especially against LHP. But the whole package of his being a corner OF with average-ish defense (Stupidly good throwing arm, but iffy range and some bad decision making) and poor baserunning makes him a 2-2.5 WAR type player. Or in other words, an average starter. That's not bad at all, but one year of that for $11m when you have a bunch of top prospects at the same position who are ready means he's a good trade candidate. 

It's early in the offseason and more moves will be made. But as it stands right now, Renfroe's PAs will be going to some combination of Taylor/Mitchell/Frelick/Ruiz/Wiemer. All of them are better defenders and baserunners, and that combined with some platooning to play matchups makes me think there's a good chance they can produce something fairly similar. And I'm almost certain that if they spend the $11m on an area (or areas) of need, that combined they'll outproduce Renfroe. As for the trade return itself; No, it's not particularly exciting. Presumably the Brewers see something in them and thinks there more to come, and while they've generally been right about that with pitchers it's by no means a guarantee. But it's not like they need to do a whole lot to be worth it overall. A couple of seasons of a #5 starter is on it's own worth it, and the chances for that are good. 

So OF prospects + trade return + $11m spent even semi-intelligently > a year of Renfroe. Now if the money doesn't get spent, then we can talk. But if it does then I really don't see the downside. Catcher, 1B/DH, 3B, SP depth, setup reliever. All areas where $11m improves us more than it does in RF. 

[owbc]

28 minutes ago, Jeff Meyer said:

Crazy proposition Seattle interested in Wong here is my proposal 

Wong and Huira and or Taylor if necessary to 

Seattle for 3b / DH Eugenio Suarez 

Under contract 11mill 2023 and 2024 with 15 mill Club Option in 2025

2022 stats 150 games .236 ave 31 HR and 87 RBI. He’s 31 yrs old 

We missed our chance to get Geno when the Reds were giving him away for free. Seattle isn't going to part with him. 

[LouisEly]

i think this whole "lineup vs LHP" is a bit overblown.

Last year the Brewers faced RHP in 4,413 PAs (72% of PAs) vs. 1709 PAs (28%) vs LHP.  For every bit that they struggled vs LHP (90 OPS+) they were as good vs RHP (110 OPS+).  Identical BABiP vs both (.279).

I'd rather dominate the type of pitcher they face 72% of the time than 28% of the time.  Every RHP they keep/acquire will likely reduce their effectiveness vs. RHP who they face >70% of the time.  In 2021 it was even more skewed - 4,560 PAs vs RHP (75%) vs. 1,539 PAs vs. LHP (25%)

[JefferyLeonard]

This was a salary dump, plain and simple.

 

 

[monty57]

57 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I will say that, with Renfroe now gone and Wong likely to follow, I will expect that the FO extend at least one of Burnes, Woody, Adames this offseason. They pretty much owe it to the fan base right now. And I will definitely join the chorus of FO-bashing if they do absolutely nothing with this increased payroll flexibility. I don't expect it like some others, but it is a possibility that lingers in the back of my mind. 

Renfroe and Wong are one-year deals, in a year in which we already have Burnes and Woodruff. Extensions would be funded with future money, when the Renfroe and Wong contracts will already be off the books (even if Renfroe wasn't traded). 

You're making an emotional argument (the team owes it to us) rather than a logical financial argument (will the funds be available, and is that the best usage of those funds). 

The question at hand is not whether they will do an extension of an existing player, but whether they will use the saved money to add players to the 2023 roster. I do not believe that they will have an opening day salary equal to what we saw this year, but with the Hader and Renfroe deals and the guys they recently got rid of, they should have enough money to add $10M-$20M to our current roster for 2023. 

To those who think that the available free agents market is light in corner IF/DH type players, remember that we could also trade for a higher-salary player. As we see in this trade, it doesn't necessarily cost a lot of "prospect capital" to acquire a decent bat. Maybe we just traded away a guy in an area of surplus (OF) and trade for a guy in an area of need (corner IF).

[DR28]

13 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

This was a salary dump, plain and simple.

 

 

Yep we arent doing anything with the money we saved... Trade Burnes and Woodruff as well.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

This was a salary dump, plain and simple.

 

 

The trade cleared salary for sure.

We won't know if it was a dump or not until the rest of the offseason plays out and we see where the OD payroll comes in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, Eye Black said:

If there’s one organization I’d guess isn’t maximizing the development of their pitchers, it would be the Angels.

This is really the crux of the trade from the Brewers' perspective. The Angels are a train wreck and only time will tell if the Brewers just hood-winked LA.

[DR28]

Brewers FO continually says they want to remain competitive, then show us you mean that!!

Hader trade and now this trade signal otherwise.