Hunter Renfroe to Angels for 3 pitchers

[LouisEly]

On 11/24/2022 at 1:26 PM, patrickgpe said:

Nobody knows how the roster will look in April, but what is wrong if you used the money you were going to pay Hader and Renfroe in 2023 and signed somebody that you feel gives you a better chance for you to win in 2023 to a 1 yr deal, knowing that you have depth in you pen and outfield corp.

Exactly.  Here are the two scenarios:

Scenario A - Brewers keep Renfroe:
Players Brewers have: Renfroe (for one year)
Cost: $11M in salary

Scenario B - Brewers trade Renfroe and use $11M to sign a FA
Players Brewers have: Free Agent X (one year), Junk, Peguero, Seminaris (all for 6 years)
Cost: $11M in salary for Free Agent X

I really don't understand how Scenario B isn't greater than Scenario A.  And the Brewers could also flip any or all of those three pitchers to another team looking to shed payroll and acquire another player.

[LouisEly]

Let's look at this another way and take a trip in the Way Back Machine.

2011.  The Brewers decide to keep Fielder and go for it.  They make it to the NLCS, but lose to "that team 400 miles to the southwest that shall not be named".  The Brewers get a comp pick for Fielder that turns out to be Mitch Haniger... who they then trade for Gerardo Parra in 2014 in a failed attempt to make the playoffs.

Apples and oranges, but knowing the outcome of that season now, do you still keep Fielder or would you have traded him before the 2011 season (for a likely bigger package than Haniger)?

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know if you’re ignoring the obvious or simply failing to see it.

Renfroe is consistent at providing an .800 OPS as a hitter and is due 11+ million dollars in ‘23 before he is free to play for whomever he chooses. 

However, the Brewers have several young OFers including multiple former first round picks whom they believe are capable of approaching if not meeting an .800 OPS all of whom will cost less than 10% of Renfroe this year.

That inefficiency is the sole reason he was traded. He has no value to the Brewers given his expected salary, remaining team control and the current make up of Milwaukee’s major league ready prospects. 

I don't know if you're ignoring the obvious or simply failing to see it.

First, I was talking about the rationale behind the logic that that Brewers had to cut ~20M from last years payroll.

But sure, lets just stick with the idea that you can replace your best hitter who's also a RHed bat with all those 1st round picks...just help me out here;

Is Frelick a RHed hitter or a left handed hitter?
Mitchell?
Turang?

ALL LHed hitters. 

That's fine though, the Brewers did SO well vs lefties last year, they could afford to get rid of their best hitter;

Brewers vs RHPers

.240

.318

.425

.743

Brewers vs LHPers

.222

.309

.365

.674

Now...lets see, what did Renfroe do vs lefties last year.

.258

.350

.492

.842

 

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

He has no value to the Brewers

Sure...as long as we don't have to see one of those lefties, we should be fine. It's not like any of the good teams have left handed pitchers...right?

[UpandIn]

14 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Let's look at this another way and take a trip in the Way Back Machine.

2011.  The Brewers decide to keep Fielder and go for it.  They make it to the NLCS, but lose to "that team 400 miles to the southwest that shall not be named".  The Brewers get a comp pick for Fielder that turns out to be Mitch Haniger... who they then trade for Gerardo Parra in 2014 in a failed attempt to make the playoffs.

Apples and oranges, but knowing the outcome of that season now, do you still keep Fielder or would you have traded him before the 2011 season (for a likely bigger package than Haniger)?

Well...that's a pretty giant leap. A franchise cornerstone who's prompting your push vs Hunter Renefroe.

By this logic, every year you DON'T win the WS, you made a mistake by not trading every player who's a FA. Or taken a step further, if we don't win the WS this year, then we made a mistake in not trading Burnes, Woodruff, Adames and Lauer. 

I'd say going to the NLCS was a pretty successful season. 

But I don't care about losing Renfroe because he's this incredibly valuable player. The issue is he was a good fit for a team that's already short on hitters who can hit righties.

They've got a whole off-season to replace him. So if they can upgrade elsewhere, great. If they just traded him to salvage a couple prospects for a FA to be and they replace him with young OFers who make what's already a weakness and even larger one...then they might as well trade Burnes and Woody now as they're probably going to struggle. Particularly late in games vs anyone who's got left handed relievers. 

[Robocaller]

13 hours ago, clancyphile said:

As is they would play outfield all the time when they are in the lineup, as opposed to Turang and Wong, who are primarily infielders,

I don't think Perkins is any more than a platoon partner for Frelick/Mitchell against lefties.

Frelick doesn't need a platoon partner. I don't think Mitchell does.

Players who only hit LHP are AAAA players not MLB players.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Why do fans want to keep a .250ish hitter?  Just because he is the best on the team?  Not really a good argument.  Why shouldn't the Brewers FO try to improve the team?  Did the 2022 Brewers win the World Series?  Did the team even make the playoffs?  I don't get the argument that keeping Renfroe made this team better when the results of one year with Renfroe say exactly the opposite.  People look at homeruns, RBI's, and OBP skills to determine the quality of baseball player.  How about looking at the contribution to a good team.  Once again a good team wins the games not an individual.  This trade improves the Brewers weak minor league relief pitching.  Play ball 

[Jopal78]

12 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't know if you're ignoring the obvious or simply failing to see it.

First, I was talking about the rationale behind the logic that that Brewers had to cut ~20M from last years payroll.

But sure, lets just stick with the idea that you can replace your best hitter who's also a RHed bat with all those 1st round picks...just help me out here;

Is Frelick a RHed hitter or a left handed hitter?
Mitchell?
Turang?

ALL LHed hitters. 

That's fine though, the Brewers did SO well vs lefties last year, they could afford to get rid of their best hitter;

Brewers vs RHPers

.240

.318

.425

.743

Brewers vs LHPers

.222

.309

.365

.674

Now...lets see, what did Renfroe do vs lefties last year.

.258

.350

.492

.842

 

Sure...as long as we don't have to see one of those lefties, we should be fine. It's not like any of the good teams have left handed pitchers...right?

Haha, okay. 
 

You should be a GM, keeping a player and eating up all the payroll flexibility because he bats right handed. Classic.

It’s okay to have favorite players, everyone does but don’t let it cloud your logic. That nobody was beating down the door to trade for Renfroe in the first place indicates his value league wide and given the Brewers organizational depth he had less value than that at his expected price. 

[Thurston Fluff]

12 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't know if you're ignoring the obvious or simply failing to see it.

First, I was talking about the rationale behind the logic that that Brewers had to cut ~20M from last years payroll.

But sure, lets just stick with the idea that you can replace your best hitter who's also a RHed bat with all those 1st round picks...just help me out here;

Is Frelick a RHed hitter or a left handed hitter?
Mitchell?
Turang?

ALL LHed hitters. 

That's fine though, the Brewers did SO well vs lefties last year, they could afford to get rid of their best hitter;

Brewers vs RHPers

.240

.318

.425

.743

Brewers vs LHPers

.222

.309

.365

.674

Now...lets see, what did Renfroe do vs lefties last year.

.258

.350

.492

.842

 

Sure...as long as we don't have to see one of those lefties, we should be fine. It's not like any of the good teams have left handed pitchers...right?

We also couldn't hit for average, relied way too much on the long ball, struck out more than we should and regressed on defense. Renfroe was part of those problems as well. It isn't as simple as we don't hit lefties well so we can't trade anyone who hits lefties reasonably well. We can replace his ability to hit lefties easier than we can get a 31 year old Renfroe to improve his other weaknesses.

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Players who only hit LHP are AAAA players not MLB players.

Checking the splits leaderboards since 2019 to get a decent sample, here are the players with the biggest L/R splits.

Some of these guys do other things like add value on defense, or even hit RHP okay, but their values are still largely buoyed by their PAs vs LHP with the percentage in parentheses being their wRAA vs LHP divided by their total RAR.

Albert Pujols (315.9%)
524 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +25.9 wRAA
831 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -19.7 wRAA

Bobby Dalbec (111.9%)
330 PAs vs L | 128 wRC+ | 13.2 wRAA
568 PAs vs R | 85 wRC+ | -6.0 wRAA

Andrew McCutchen (94.5%)
494 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA
1163 PAs vs R | 91 wRC+ | -8.0 wRAA

JD Martinez (75.6%)
596 PAs vs L | 159 wRC+ | +47.7 wRAA
1527 PAs vs R | 108 wRC+ | +25.7 wRAA

Hanser Alberto (69.7%)
512 PAs vs L | 126 wRC+ | +18.9 wRAA
683 PAs vs R | 60 wRC+ | -32.2 wRA

Alec Bohm (68.0%)
355 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +17.2 wRAA
873 PAs vs R | 79 wRC+ | -17.9 wRAA

Rhys Hoskins (65.5%)
567 PAs vs L | 160 wRC+ | +45.5 wRAA
1438 PAs vs R | 106 wRC+ | +18.2 wRAA

Darin Ruf (65.3%)
388 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +18.1 wRAA
412 PAs vs R | 97 wRC+ | -0.7 wRAA

AJ Pollock (57.1%)
440 PAs vs L | 150 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA
1061 PAs vs R | 98 wRC+ | +0.1 wRAA

Jordan Luplow (52.3%)
434 PAs vs L | 132 wRC+ | +18.7 wRAA
345 PAs vs R | 80 wRC+ | -8.1 wRAA

Austin Slater (52.1%)
515 PAs vs L | 141 wRC+ | +26.9 wRAA
412 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -9.8 wRAA 

Kyle Farmer (50.1%)
374 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +17.3 wRAA
1005 PAs vs R | 71 wRC+ | -24.2 wRAA

Mike Brosseau (42.7%)
334 PAs vs L | 127 wRC+ | +10.0 wRAA
235 PAs vs R | 84 wRC+ | -5.5 wRAA

Tommy Pham (42.3%)
540 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +20.3 wRAA
1422 PAs vs R | 94 wRC+ | -8.8 wRAA

Tom Murphy (41.8%)
315 PAs vs L | 154 wRC+ | +20.0 wRAA
333 PAs vs R | 68 wRC+ | -14.9 wRAA

Looking at this list it seems like only hitting LHP has been the difference between AAAA and MLB for guys like Murphy, Brosseau, Slater, Luplow, Ruf and Alberto while it has helped guys like JDM, Bohm, Hoskins, Pollock, Farmer and Pham to get more regular PT than their vs RHP splits have maybe warranted.

[Devinep]

2 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Why do fans want to keep a .250ish hitter?  Just because he is the best on the team?  Not really a good argument.  Why shouldn't the Brewers FO try to improve the team?  Did the 2022 Brewers win the World Series?  Did the team even make the playoffs?  I don't get the argument that keeping Renfroe made this team better when the results of one year with Renfroe say exactly the opposite.  People look at homeruns, RBI's, and OBP skills to determine the quality of baseball player.  How about looking at the contribution to a good team.  Once again a good team wins the games not an individual.  This trade improves the Brewers weak minor league relief pitching.  Play ball 

In trying to decipher this post, which wasn’t easy, you seem to claim that Renfroe made the team worse? Since you said the did the “opposite” of making the team better, go ahead and explain how the teams most productive hitter (even if you didn’t like his best-amongst starters average) made the team worse

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

We also couldn't hit for average, relied way too much on the long ball, struck out more than we should and regressed on defense. Renfroe was part of those problems as well. It isn't as simple as we don't hit lefties well so we can't trade anyone who hits lefties reasonably well. We can replace his ability to hit lefties easier than we can get a 31 year old Renfroe to improve his other weaknesses.

Right...and I've never said it was.

I've said they just made the biggest weakness on this team an even bigger issue, and I'll wait to see how they address this in the off-season. But just pointing to Frelick and Mitchell as OFers who will likely produce a WAR similar to that of Renfroe ignores the whole team building aspect. 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Checking the splits leaderboards since 2019 to get a decent sample, here are the players with the biggest L/R splits.

Some of these guys do other things like add value on defense, or even hit RHP okay, but their values are still largely buoyed by their PAs vs LHP with the percentage in parentheses being their wRAA vs LHP divided by their total RAR.

Albert Pujols (315.9%)
524 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +25.9 wRAA
831 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -19.7 wRAA

Bobby Dalbec (111.9%)
330 PAs vs L | 128 wRC+ | 13.2 wRAA
568 PAs vs R | 85 wRC+ | -6.0 wRAA

Andrew McCutchen (94.5%)
494 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA
1163 PAs vs R | 91 wRC+ | -8.0 wRAA

JD Martinez (75.6%)
596 PAs vs L | 159 wRC+ | +47.7 wRAA
1527 PAs vs R | 108 wRC+ | +25.7 wRAA

Hanser Alberto (69.7%)
512 PAs vs L | 126 wRC+ | +18.9 wRAA
683 PAs vs R | 60 wRC+ | -32.2 wRA

Alec Bohm (68.0%)
355 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +17.2 wRAA
873 PAs vs R | 79 wRC+ | -17.9 wRAA

Rhys Hoskins (65.5%)
567 PAs vs L | 160 wRC+ | +45.5 wRAA
1438 PAs vs R | 106 wRC+ | +18.2 wRAA

Darin Ruf (65.3%)
388 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +18.1 wRAA
412 PAs vs R | 97 wRC+ | -0.7 wRAA

AJ Pollock (57.1%)
440 PAs vs L | 150 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA
1061 PAs vs R | 98 wRC+ | +0.1 wRAA

Jordan Luplow (52.3%)
434 PAs vs L | 132 wRC+ | +18.7 wRAA
345 PAs vs R | 80 wRC+ | -8.1 wRAA

Austin Slater (52.1%)
515 PAs vs L | 141 wRC+ | +26.9 wRAA
412 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -9.8 wRAA 

Kyle Farmer (50.1%)
374 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +17.3 wRAA
1005 PAs vs R | 71 wRC+ | -24.2 wRAA

Mike Brosseau (42.7%)
334 PAs vs L | 127 wRC+ | +10.0 wRAA
235 PAs vs R | 84 wRC+ | -5.5 wRAA

Tommy Pham (42.3%)
540 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +20.3 wRAA
1422 PAs vs R | 94 wRC+ | -8.8 wRAA

Tom Murphy (41.8%)
315 PAs vs L | 154 wRC+ | +20.0 wRAA
333 PAs vs R | 68 wRC+ | -14.9 wRAA

Looking at this list it seems like only hitting LHP has been the difference between AAAA and MLB for guys like Murphy, Brosseau, Slater, Luplow, Ruf and Alberto while it has helped guys like JDM, Bohm, Hoskins, Pollock, Farmer and Pham to get more regular PT than their vs RHP splits have maybe warranted.

You  certainly have a liberal definition of players who "only hit LHP." A couple of them even have wRC+ greater than 100. I wouldn't even put Brosseau in that category--he's not a complete embarrassment vs. RHP. So if you limit it to guys who have wRC+ of less than 80, you're left with a few guys whom no one should advocate having, except as backup C or maybe backup middle INF. Farmer at least hit .241 vs RHP in the majors (and Bohm has hit .261, Aberto hit .235, etc.), something Perkins hasn't done in the minors.

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Haha, okay. 
 

You should be a GM, keeping a player and eating up all the payroll flexibility because he bats right handed. Classic.

It’s okay to have favorite players, everyone does but don’t let it cloud your logic. That nobody was beating down the door to trade for Renfroe in the first place indicates his value league wide and given the Brewers organizational depth he had less value than that at his expected price. 

If so, I would assert that it proves Renfroe's value to the brewers was greater than what we could get for him, so he should have been kept.

[Robocaller]

19 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Exactly.  Here are the two scenarios:

Scenario A - Brewers keep Renfroe:
Players Brewers have: Renfroe (for one year)
Cost: $11M in salary

Scenario B - Brewers trade Renfroe and use $11M to sign a FA
Players Brewers have: Free Agent X (one year), Junk, Peguero, Seminaris (all for 6 years)
Cost: $11M in salary for Free Agent X

I really don't understand how Scenario B isn't greater than Scenario A.  And the Brewers could also flip any or all of those three pitchers to another team looking to shed payroll and acquire another player.

Your fundamental error is thinking that the Brewers will sign someone with that "available" 11M.

[Hopper]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Your fundamental error is thinking that the Brewers will sign someone with that "available" 11M.

...and even if they do sign someone for that 11 million, will that player be able to out produce Renfro?  I mean, what does 11 million get you these days?

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

...and even if they do sign someone for that 11 million, will that player be able to out produce Renfro?  I mean, what does 11 million get you these days?

McCutchen is what you get for about $10m.

[Hopper]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

McCutchen is what you get for about $10m.

lol, I rest my case.

Unless they have a plan in mind to replace Renfroe's offense, it was a dumb trade, plain and simple.

Looks like those who like the trade like it, and those that don't, don't, so no amount of bickering back and forth is going to change anyone's mind.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Hopper said:

lol, I rest my case.

Unless they have a plan in mind to replace Renfroe's offense, it was a dumb trade, plain and simple.

Looks like those who like the trade like it, and those that don't, don't, so no amount of bickering back and forth is going to change anyone's mind.

That's the key. It's not even December, so...maybe they've got a plan. Moving Wong made a lot more sense than moving Renfroe just given the makeup of the team. 

And while it makes for a clever quip, I don't think Hunter Renfroe was anyone's "favorite" player...or that it even matters. 

I like the young players we've got. I'm just not trusting Wiemer to step into Renfroe's shoes...which as of now seems like what the Brewers are counting on. But, again, still just November. 

The Brewers have surprised before. Maybe they'll go after someone with the savings. Maybe they'll still move Wong and try and bring in Contreras or Abreu. Or maybe there's a Willy Adames type trade out there. 

I just hope it's not signing 4-5 players like 2020 and hoping you get lucky. But I'll trust they've got a plan, otherwise, it's hard to see how they're "going for it" without being able to hit lefties. And maybe this Perkins kid helps...but that also seems like a stretch. 

[Thurston Fluff]

20 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Right...and I've never said it was.

I've said they just made the biggest weakness on this team an even bigger issue, and I'll wait to see how they address this in the off-season. But just pointing to Frelick and Mitchell as OFers who will likely produce a WAR similar to that of Renfroe ignores the whole team building aspect. 

While you didn't specifically say we don't hit lefties well so we can't trade anyone who hits lefties reasonably well you're complaint about trading Renfroe is because he hits lefties well and we have a problem hitting lefties. What's the difference?

Making a weakness weaker while making other areas stronger may not help said weakness but it helps cover the problem. If we are marginally worse against lefties but better at contact, defense and consistency that problem against lefties will not hurt the team as much as if we kept the same player who hurt us on those other areas simply because he hits lefties well.

[monty57]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:42 AM, SF70 said:

The extra ~10M from the Brewers new local tv deal started last year, and so did the extra ~$8M per team increase in national tv money.

How did their expenses correlate?

We have very little knowledge of the Brewers' finances. We know what they spend on payroll, and try to make determinations from that. They went into 2022 with a payroll roughly $10M higher than their previous record high, and it really appears that they are trying to cut costs at this point, starting with the much-maligned Hader trade, continuing with them letting guys like Suter go, and most recently seen with the Renfroe trade being discussed in this thread.

Some feel that there is a lot of profit being made and the ownership group is just being cheap. I don't feel that way. No one outside of the organization knows for sure.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

 

Some feel that there is a lot of profit being made and the ownership group is just being cheap. I don't feel that way. No one outside of the organization knows for sure.

Also, there is a big difference between running the Brewers within the revenue their market generates and "being cheap". 

As monty pointed out, none of us can know for sure, but who honestly thinks Attanasio is being "cheap"? Look at the facts, he's the managing partner of a hedge fund with 34 billion dollars in assets. He, purportedly owns and resides on one of the largest parcels of land on the west side of Los Angeles (6 acres) in addition to owning several ocean front properties in LA, and  not to mention, two entire floors of the University Club Tower in Milwaukee. 

Given that Attanasio is richer than Croesus. it's a ridiculous notion that the Brewers ownership is putting less than the best than their market will bare in order to further line their own pockets. 

[UpandIn]

20 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

While you didn't specifically say we don't hit lefties well so we can't trade anyone who hits lefties reasonably well you're complaint about trading Renfroe is because he hits lefties well and we have a problem hitting lefties. What's the difference?

Making a weakness weaker while making other areas stronger may not help said weakness but it helps cover the problem. If we are marginally worse against lefties but better at contact, defense and consistency that problem against lefties will not hurt the team as much as if we kept the same player who hurt us on those other areas simply because he hits lefties well.

My CONCERN is about how the Brewers replace the offense vs Left Handed Pitchers.

As I've REPEATEDLY said...like...ad nauseum. 

Literally...from the post you're quoting;

Quote

I've said they just made the biggest weakness on this team an even bigger issue, and I'll wait to see how they address this in the off-season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-continue-struggles-vs-lefties-in-loss

 

Quote

 

The struggles against left-handers is a season-long pattern for Milwaukee, which entered the game 13th in the National League in batting average (.221), OPS (.666) and RBIs (106) and 14th in slugging (.356) against southpaws. Conversely, the Brewers ranked second in the NL in OPS (.766), RBIs (390) and slugging (.440) and third in OBP (.326) against right-handers.

Perhaps it's no coincidence, then, that the Cardinals' two main additions at the Trade Deadline -- Montgomery and José Quintana -- are both lefties.

 

20 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Making a weakness weaker while making other areas stronger may not help said weakness but it helps cover the problem. If we are marginally worse against lefties but better at contact, defense and consistency that problem against lefties will not hurt the team as much as if we kept the same player who hurt us on those other areas simply because he hits lefties well.

Yeah, I don't think it will. 

I don't think a team can be a serious contender when they were already one of the worst in the league vs lefties by putting a defense in RF. 

Consistency? That's a lot to ask of from the rookies who'll be replacing him. Asking them to be more consistent than he was. 

Fewer Ks and more contact from players who were already projected to be on the roster(Frelick) doesn't really seem like it's going to help a team who's "going for it," when their ability to hit lefties was the single largest factor in keeping them out of the playoffs.

And who's the other player who's most likely to be on the opening day roster? Garrett Mitchell...who struck out over 40% of the time, is another lefty and hasn't exactly been the model of consistency at any point during his career. 

 

19 hours ago, monty57 said:

Some feel that there is a lot of profit being made and the ownership group is just being cheap. I don't feel that way. No one outside of the organization knows for sure.

To be clear for some...who've already said he's only on here to try and aggravate, I've never once suggested Attanasio was "cheap." I've said just the opposite. 

 

This couldn't be more simple. I don't like trading the player who was the BEST in the area you were the worst last year...UNLESS they make corresponding moves that make up for that loss...and again, as I've also repeatedly stated, it's November, so I'm reasonably confident they will. 

I doubt the Brewers have deluded themselves into thinking they can be one of the worst offenses in the league vs lefties, get rid of the guy who put up an sOPS+ of 131 vs lefties while the team as a hole put up a 90 sOPS+ vs lefties....and our lefties rookies will be enough to overcome that. 

 

[UpandIn]

And...just to further illustrate how AWFUL we were against lefties last year. 

We had 4 players out of our 9 who got the most playing time at each of the 9 positions, our best hitters vs lefties were....

Hunter Renfroe .842
Andrew McCutchen .735
Jace Peterson .718
Tyron Taylor .721

Anyone expecting Tyrone Taylor to be our savior or a #4 hitter vs lefties next year? Especially while he's likely losing PT for the more consistent contact, defense and consistency that the rookies will provide?

Or are we banking on Wiemer and Ruiz to step in and save us? Blake Perkins(because he looks like he may need to be on the 26 man at this point given how well he hits lefties).

To be fair, lets throw Luis Urias in there.

That gives us TWO players who put up .721 OPS and a .752 OPS vs lefties.

So....unless they actually add players who can hit lefties, they're a WHOLE lot more than "marginally weaker," vs lefties and getting better at  "contact, defense and consistency," all but one is even close to a certainty at this point, it absolutely makes us a significantly worse team as of now. 

You can't put a team on the field that...at the moment, projects to be the worst in the NFL at hitting lefties with ONE regular who has an OPS vs lefties at ~.750 because Frelick and Mitchell will make up for those weaknesses. Particularly when again, Mitchell has, again, been pretty inconsistent throughout the minors, struck out ~42% of the time and put up a .550 BABIP.

And I'm a BIG fan of both Frelick and Mitchell. But you're putting more than a little too much on them to overcompensate for an enormous hole in our offense as rookies. Or Ruiz who struggled last year, or Wiemer who has incredible talent, but has also been streaky and struggled at AA last year before finishing off with a nice ~40 games in AAA. He's also a guy who strikes out a lot and who has a lot of moving parts to his swing and who has struggled moving up at each level. 

I feel pretty confident if they can't hit lefties better next year, the upgrade defensively and the fewer strikeouts and consistency you're going to get from the rookies...probably won't be even close to enough to get this team back to where they were last year. 

I'm amazed that this is a controversial take. 

https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/which-teams-leads-the-league-in-ops-against-lefties-this-season

We were terrible.

We got worse.

 

Oversimplifying this to "Frelick should produce more than 2.7 WAR, ergo Frelick is a better value," completely ignores team building. 

Why not apply that logic to Woodruff? He has the same WAR as Renfroe last year. All we need to do is replace or match his 2.7 WAR and we can overcome the loss of Brandon Woodruff. That BADLY ignores the importance of actually building a team.

 

Again though, I'll trust Attanasio didn't do this as  starlight money dump and he plans on putting that money back into the team. It'd also certainly make sense to go ahead and trade Wong while we're at it as he hit a scalding .~440 OPS vs lefties while Turang has at least been solid vs lefties. 

I just don't remember the last time I've had to argue you need to be able thi BOTH righties and lefties on a message board....

[Thurston Fluff]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

And...just to further illustrate how AWFUL we were against lefties last year. 

We had 4 players out of our 9 who got the most playing time at each of the 9 positions, our best hitters vs lefties were....

Hunter Renfroe .842
Andrew McCutchen .735
Jace Peterson .718
Tyron Taylor .721

Anyone expecting Tyrone Taylor to be our savior or a #4 hitter vs lefties next year? Especially while he's likely losing PT for the most consistent contact, defense and consistency?

To be fair, lets throw Luis Urias in there.

That gives us TWO players who put up .721 OPS and a .752 OPS vs lefties.

So....unless they actually add players who can hit lefties, they're a WHOLE lot more than "marginally weaker," vs lefties and getting better at  "contact, defense and consistency," all but one is even close to a certainty at this point, it absolutely makes us a significantly worse team as of now. 

You can't put a team on the field that...at the moment, projects to be the worst in the NFL at hitting lefties with ONE regular who has an OPS vs lefties at ~.750 because Frelick and Mitchell will make up for those weaknesses. Particularly when again, Mitchell has, again, been pretty inconsistent throughout the minors, struck out ~42% of the time and put up a .550 BABIP.

I feel pretty confident if they can't hit lefties better next year, the upgrade defensively and the fewer strikeouts and consistency you're going to get from the rookies...probably won't be even close to enough to get this team back to where they were last year. 

 

I'm amazed that this is a controversial take. 

https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/which-teams-leads-the-league-in-ops-against-lefties-this-season

We were terrible.

We got worse.

How is "we need to get better," even remotely in dispute? 

It'd be like having a pitching staff with Jason Alexander as our ace, improving the middle relief and saying, "yeah, we got worst in the rotation, but we can make up with it with our middle relievers! No....we can't. You actually need to hit and score vs lefties to win. Teams are going to stack the deck with lefties IF we get back to the playoffs with the lineup as it stands...which I don't think we would even do. 

They face lefties about 25% of the time. We were middle of the pack on offense despite being bad against lefties. We traded ONE player who hits lefties well. I just don't see how that makes the entire offense so much worse.

As far as expecting too much out of rookies, why is it so hard to think at least one of the rookies hit above .255, get on base more than more than 31.5% and provide better defense? I'd be less confident if we had to rely on one player but we have four. Considering one of them has already did just that in the short amount of time he's been up I don't think it's to much to ask for them to pick up the slack of losing Renfroe. Maybe not in the same way but contributing in other ways. My own personal belief is between the four rookies and the skillsets they have they will compensate for losing Renfroe on their own. Adding the money saved to improve other areas will be where we actually improve the offense.

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

They face lefties about 25% of the time. We were middle of the pack on offense despite being bad against lefties. We traded ONE player who hits lefties well. I just don't see how that makes the entire offense so much worse.

Well...I thought I just laid it all out.

We lost by FAR our best hitter vs lefties.
We're ALSO losing our 2nd and 3rd best hitters vs lefties among those who played the most. So 3 of our top 4. 

We were already awful vs lefties and it's the single most significant reason we didn't make the playoffs. 

I don't know...I don't know how you don't see it, but it's right there. Being the worst in baseball(as we'd be at the moment) offensively in 25% of our opponents, not to mention the number of lefties teams would likely throw at us out of the pen...it kinda feels self evidence. 

6 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

As far as expecting too much out of rookies, why is it so hard to think at least one of the rookies hit above .255, get on base more than more than 31.5% and provide better defense?

???? Where did I say it was "so hard to think," any of that?

Remember...the team building emphasis? That's important. 

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I'd be less confident if we had to rely on one player but we have four. Considering one of them has already did just that in the short amount of time he's been up I don't think it's to much to ask for them to pick up the slack of losing Renfroe.

We're talking about Mitchell again?

Garrett Mitchell struck out 42% of the time...so he's not helping with the contact or the consistency. Speaking of which, he had a .518 OPS after the first half of his PAs. He also had a .548 BABIP.

That's really not improving in two of the three area's you suggested. 

He finished the year with 25 PAs and a .786 BABIP that raised his OPS from the mid 500's to the final number of ~.830.

I'm hopeful he'll produce next year as well. I'm a little more skeptical of him than Frelick as he's been much less consistent...as his .681 AA OPS would suggest. And even STILL, even if he plays well, is he going to be able to hit righties?

You can't just brush off one QUARTER of the leagues pitchers as if that's not the difference between the post-season and being .500. 

 

Quote

Maybe not in the same way but contributing in other ways. My own personal belief is between the four rookies and the skillsets they have they will compensate for losing Renfroe on their own. Adding the money saved to improve other areas will be where we actually improve the offense.

Ok...I'm good with the bolded part.

I'm struggling to see where they're going to actually improve this team, but Attanasio has surprised me before. He's the same guy who traded for Yelich, signed Cain and then had a ~120M offer on the table for Darvish. MAYBE they target Contreras. Maybe they make another trade like they have for Yelich. 

But until they do that, this team is just....worse.

As for the rookies, Ruiz, I don't know what to expect of him. He made soft contact last year, but hit for power in the minors. He may help. 
Wiemer, I think he's going to struggle, but nothing he does would surprise me.

 

AS long as they're not BETTER on Ruiz and Wiemer stepping into the lineup and carrying this team vs lefties, I'll be fine. And I think pretty much everytime I've talked about not liking this trade, I'd said it's still November...so I'll trust the FO has a plan as they obviously know what holes we have. I think it's likely one of those 4 OFers is traded...for who, I have no idea, but I'm sure they'll TRY and improve the offense. There are just a limited numbers of players on the FA market who look like they're both realistic and or viable upgrades. 

 

Either way, I don't like this trade RIGHT NOW. If they trade for Devers, I'll re-asses(or someone more realistic, but I'm making a point). 

But it's also going to probably take multiple players to dig out of that hole. I suspect right now, part of that strategy is going to be Jesus Aguilar, Perkins type players...and maybe a FA. 

The worst thing the Brewers could do is half-ass it this year, burn another year of Burnes and Woodruff. I don't think really good defense and a lineup of LHed hitters or RHed hitter with reverse splits will be good enough...but we'll see. There are over 3 months until pitchers and catchers report.