Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Make no mistake, the really bad extension that Gute signed Rodgers to last offseason is directly affecting both the compensation for Rodgers and the pace of a deal coming together. 

That extension was the only way to get Rodgers' 2022 cap # down to something manageable for them to field what they thought was going to be a title-contending roster last season (reduced Rodgers' 2022 cap # by almost $20M, freeing up room to try and get Davante Adams signed).  It was an extension that essentially gave them the option for a year to year approach of where both the team and Rodgers was each offseason, knowing at some point they'd likely either eat a big dead cap number and/or trade Rodgers.  This is what happens with every team and a veteran HOF quarterback nearing the end of his career in the salary cap era - eventually all the extensions and salary cap can-kicking needs to stop.  More often than not when that happens, the following season looks alot more like what Tampa Bay is dealing with in terms of being forced to burn it all down with cap casualty cuts and likely be forced into a lengthy rebuild in a dud year or two.  As it stands, the Packers aren't forced to do anything at the moment even with Rodgers' 2023 cap # on their books, and they've got a young quarterback ready start without needing to find an immediate heir apparent in this year's draft.

It's not a no-lose situation for the Packers, but boy it could be a helluva lot worse than it currently is.

[Sixtolezcano]

12 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Make no mistake, the really bad extension that Gute signed Rodgers to last offseason is directly affecting both the compensation for Rodgers and the pace of a deal coming together. 

I really don’t see why posters get so upset that a Rodgers-Jets deal isn’t close to completion now. What’s the hurry? The draft doesn’t occur until the end of April, and the likelihood of a Packer division title in 2023 is  low with Love in his first year as a starter. The drop dead date for the deal to get done is opening day in September. With the stronger draft in 2024, it may work out to their advantage to get a pick then (although it may be lower). Who’s to say that Rodgers won’t play poorly again next year and the Jets record won’t improve (after all they still are the Jets). My advice is to sit back and enjoy the ride and entertainment value.
 

The most likely scenario is still the Jets will fold and send their first round pick to us long before then, rather than to give up on the 2023 season.

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I really don’t see why posters get so upset that a Rodgers-Jets deal isn’t close to completion now. What’s the hurry? The draft doesn’t occur until the end of April, and the likelihood of a Packer division title in 2023 is  low with Love in his first year as a starter. The drop dead date for the deal to get done is opening day in September. With the stronger draft in 2024, it may work out to their advantage to get a pick then (although it may be lower). Who’s to say that Rodgers won’t play poorly again next year and the Jets record won’t improve (after all they still are the Jets). My advice is to sit back and enjoy the ride and entertainment value.
 

The most likely scenario is still the Jets will fold and send their first round pick to us long before then, rather than to give up on the 2023 season.

In no way is #13 this season getting sent our way the most likely or even a remotely likely scenario. IMO, of course. Again, unless it comes with us swapping #15.

[adambr2]

12 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

That extension was the only way to get Rodgers' 2022 cap # down to something manageable for them to field what they thought was going to be a title-contending roster last season (reduced Rodgers' 2022 cap # by almost $20M, freeing up room to try and get Davante Adams signed).  It was an extension that essentially gave them the option for a year to year approach of where both the team and Rodgers was each offseason, knowing at some point they'd likely either eat a big dead cap number and/or trade Rodgers.  This is what happens with every team and a veteran HOF quarterback nearing the end of his career in the salary cap era - eventually all the extensions and salary cap can-kicking needs to stop.  More often than not when that happens, the following season looks alot more like what Tampa Bay is dealing with in terms of being forced to burn it all down with cap casualty cuts and likely be forced into a lengthy rebuild in a dud year or two.  As it stands, the Packers aren't forced to do anything at the moment even with Rodgers' 2023 cap # on their books, and they've got a young quarterback ready start without needing to find an immediate heir apparent in this year's draft.

It's not a no-lose situation for the Packers, but boy it could be a helluva lot worse than it currently is.

Fair counterpoint. As someone who was ready to start the Jordan Love era a year ago and take a much stronger return on Rodgers then, I find the whole situation a bit frustrating, but I can at least understand why they wanted to try kicking the can to win one one last time with Rodgers. But the plan to try to do that with the WR they had was questionable at best. 

The only thing I can think of is that they fully expected Adams to return when Rodgers announced his return, they were totally blindsided when he still insisted on going to the Raiders, and they had no real contingency plan for that. 

[homer]

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I really don’t see why posters get so upset that a Rodgers-Jets deal isn’t close to completion now. What’s the hurry? The draft doesn’t occur until the end of April, and the likelihood of a Packer division title in 2023 is  low with Love in his first year as a starter. The drop dead date for the deal to get done is opening day in September. With the stronger draft in 2024, it may work out to their advantage to get a pick then (although it may be lower). Who’s to say that Rodgers won’t play poorly again next year and the Jets record won’t improve (after all they still are the Jets). My advice is to sit back and enjoy the ride and entertainment value.
 

The most likely scenario is still the Jets will fold and send their first round pick to us long before then, rather than to give up on the 2023 season.

Interesting thought. Packers could be waiting on the 1st this season for its value or holding out til past the 2023 draft with a 1st rd ask for 2024 which odds are higher that it would be later in 1st but still a 1st rd pick vs a 2nd and conditional.

Now is the 2024 draft stronger in terms of top talent? Or stronger in depth than the 2023 draft talent. I'd assume this must be the last season where 2020 affects the depth that the draft may hold because players being awarded an extra year of eligibility. Or would that be 2024 where it ends?

[Sixtolezcano]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

In no way is #13 this season getting sent our way the most likely or even a remotely likely scenario. IMO, of course. Again, unless it comes with us swapping #15.

Are you getting this information from an inside NFL source? Or do you have any other credible sources? Or are you just making an assumption and running with it or basing it upon the personal opinion of one talking head?

[adambr2]

57 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Are you getting this information from an inside NFL source? Or do you have any other credible sources? Or are you just making an assumption and running with it or basing it upon the personal opinion of one talking head?

I...didn't say I had any information nor did I lay claim that anything was reported.

Do you not know what IMO stands for in "IMO, of course."? Or did you completely skim over that part of my post?

[Sixtolezcano]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

I...didn't say I had any information nor did I lay claim that anything was reported.

Do you not know what IMO stands for in "IMO, of course."? Or did you completely skim over that part of my post?

“In no way…” seems like a really definitive statement to me. When you use that strong of a comment, maybe you should skip the IMO it just waters down what you really have to say, IMO of course. Also please try to not be so snarky in your rude attacks on others. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

“In no way…” seems like a really definitive statement to me. When you use that strong of a comment, maybe you should skip the IMO it just waters down what you really have to say, IMO of course. Also please try to not be so snarky in your rude attacks on others. 

I literally disclaimed it with "in my opinion" to clarify that it was just my opinion and nothing more than that, "in no way" indicating that I feel strongly about said comment. As with anyone's opinion, I could be wrong about it and hope to be wrong, but I don't think I will be. 

Please don't try to police me or my behavior when there was no call for your mimicking my question to another poster in the first place just because I disagreed with your opinion, I didn't state that something had been literally reported. 

My question of whether you didn't know what IMO meant was a literal question and wasn't intended to be rude or snarky. I understand that not everyone knows what all abbreviations or acronyms stand for and so I was trying to clarify if that was the case because I had assumed if you knew that I was merely stating a personal opinion you wouldn't have retorted by asking for sources on a mere opinion. 

To clarify where I am coming from:

I didn't ask you for sources on why us getting the #13 pick is the most likely scenario because I understand that's just your opinion. As it is my opinion that it isn't. 

When someone says, "It's been widely reported that X won't sign Y because of Z", to me that's different. That's an implication that the information is backed up and reliable and not just a person's opinion. I certainly feel it's ok to ask what the reports are when it's something like that. Otherwise that's how misinformation happens.

[bjkrautk]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/aaron-rodgers-trade-packers-jets-leverage

 

Andrew Brandt's take on the Rodgers trade negotiations, just to get the discussion back on-track.

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, bjkrautk said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/20/aaron-rodgers-trade-packers-jets-leverage

 

Andrew Brandt's take on the Rodgers trade negotiations, just to get the discussion back on-track.

He's definitely got some legitimate takes. 

My feeling on where the trade compensation ends up is that we get the Jets 2nd this year. I think there will be another pick involved, and there will be conditionally a chance at a '24 1st, but it will be conditional. Only question is what the condition(s) will be. 

I'd be very disappointed to lose out on any '23 compensation that could help out this year. I'd love to get Elijah Moore back as I'm sure others would but I'm doubting that happens. Maybe Corey Davis.

[Fear The Chorizo]

50 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

He's definitely got some legitimate takes. 

My feeling on where the trade compensation ends up is that we get the Jets 2nd this year. I think there will be another pick involved, and there will be conditionally a chance at a '24 1st, but it will be conditional. Only question is what the condition(s) will be. 

I'd be very disappointed to lose out on any '23 compensation that could help out this year. I'd love to get Elijah Moore back as I'm sure others would but I'm doubting that happens. Maybe Corey Davis.

I think I posted it earlier in this thread, but the rookie contract difference between a mid 1st and a 2nd round pick in a draft year that is by many accounts a down year talentwise makes the 2023 2nd rounder pretty solid, especially if there's also a player that could provide some value coming back and a conditional 2024 pick.  The 13th overall pick this year would be nice, no doubt - but it carries a higher salary and that 5th year option.

[CheezWizHed]

There are plenty of good players available at #13 and #15 that I'd want to draft them and and not worry about paying them a 5th year... I'm pretty sure that isn't part of the equation at that point.  

[sveumrules]

I’ll guess it ends up something like…

Rodgers, #15

for

#13, 2023 3rd (#74), 2024 2nd & 3rd

Maybe a player gets thrown in or some conditions get added to the 2024 picks based on Jets postseason results or if Rodgers comes back for 2024.

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I’ll guess it ends up something like…

Rodgers, #15

for

#13, 2023 3rd (#74), 2024 2nd & 3rd

Maybe a player gets thrown in or some conditions get added to the 2024 picks based on Jets postseason results or if Rodgers comes back for 2024.

That seems aggressive, I hope you're right.

[adambr2]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-betting-odds-say-packers-are-now-worst-team-in-nfc-north-by-a-healthy-margin-160950653.html

 

I think we'll surprise some people. I think 9-8 and a playoff berth is a reasonable possibility. Maybe even compete for the division. 

My biggest frustration is why we have continued to stand by arguably the worst defensive coordinator in football with a talented defense. 

[yourout]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-betting-odds-say-packers-are-now-worst-team-in-nfc-north-by-a-healthy-margin-160950653.html

 

I think we'll surprise some people. I think 9-8 and a playoff berth is a reasonable possibility. Maybe even compete for the division. 

My biggest frustration is why we have continued to stand by arguably the worst defensive coordinator in football with a talented defense. 

It's odd as it sounds outside of our special teams coach I have zero faith in this coaching staff.

MLF might be the least creative offensive mind in football.

[homer]

22 minutes ago, yourout said:

It's odd as it sounds outside of our special teams coach I have zero faith in this coaching staff.

MLF might be the least creative offensive mind in football.

Did you not watch the last 5 years of the McCarthy regime?

[MVP2110]

Not sure I've seen a more wild post then calling MLF one of the least creative offensive minds in football. He has his flaws for sure but that's quite a take

[yourout]

26 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Not sure I've seen a more wild post then calling MLF one of the least creative offensive minds in football. He has his flaws for sure but that's quite a take

I guess I'm using Andy Reid as the measuring stick and MLF is light years behind him in my eyes.

[MVP2110]

55 minutes ago, yourout said:

I guess I'm using Andy Reid as the measuring stick and MLF is light years behind him in my eyes.

Andy Reid by most would be considered the most creative offensive mind in the game, literally everyone else is behind him

[CheezWizHed]

I think this year will be when we see the real MLF show up.  The last years of MM, he just really couldn't change to save his life.  Viking CBs were running the WR routes because they saw the same thing so often.  I think MLF at least was "fresher" in his creativity.

But was the offense on the field because of Rodgers or MLF? Really hard to say.  Most likely Love will be more limited in capability than Rodgers (hey, back-to-back-to-back HOF QBs would be awesome, but...), but I'd imagine he'd be more compliant to the game plan than Rodgers would be.  

Not saying MLF is going to turn into Ried... just saying that I think we will see a more unfiltered MLF offense this year.... good or bad.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Rodgers is still a great quarterback - but he was limited last season with that thumb injury.  That being said, it was also apparent that he's entered the stage in his career where he needs receivers to get themselves open instead of being able to throw anyone open, and his mobility has declined enough to the point where he can't be relied upon to extend countless plays outside the pocket and take over a game.  As great as Rodgers played, I think a big part of Rodgers' 2020 and 2021 resurgence to MVP level has to be credited to how amazing Davante Adams was his last couple seasons as a Packer.  

I've long maintained that Rodgers' ability to take advantage of defensive substitutions or getting pass rushers to jump offsides was a double-edged sword that limited offensive creativity/game-planning.  Toward the end of MM's run, the Packers were willing to avoid a bunch of personnel substitutions to try and keep the opposing defense on the field, along with basically having zero pre snap motion.    It stagnated the offense and limited MM's playcalling using all sorts of personnel packages, which was a strength early in his tenure as GB's coach.  Rodgers always has enjoyed holding the ball in the pocket, almost waiting for a chance to extend a play to break the defense down.

MLF's offensive creativity (or lack thereof) will have nowhere to hide next season - Love has developed fully in MLF's system, and won't have the experience a HOF veteran quarterback leans on no matter what the playcall may be.

 

[PeaveyFury]

Of note, McCarthy's initial success in his offensive system fully blossomed after the then stubborn veteran QB who only threw to 'his guys' left town. Curious if history again repeats itself in this way as well.