Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

This seems pretty spot on to me

This seems accurate, but the question becomes just how long the Jets are willing to wait and play chicken with their own short term outlook by not acquiring Rodgers.  The draft takes place well before June 1 and that option bonus doesn't actually have to be paid until the first regular season game, if I'm not mistaken - are the Jets really willing to not have a starting quarterback through the draft and into training camp with their current roster makeup?  If this goes sideways for them, everyone in that front office and coaching staff is fired.  "Short term" to the Packers can mean 4-5 more months if they're not hellbent on getting 2023 draft picks as part of the trade - I really doubt the Jets are able to hold the line that long until leverage would appear to be more on their side.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Neither is going to happen, but that is more likely (as in a non-zero chance) than what you suggested. There's no scenario in which that guy is wearing a Packers jersey at camp. 

The Packers already have some sunk cost in Rodgers for 2023. They already have a QB. Honestly, I do think it's possible they just tell him and the Jets to pound sand and eat it. Like a 2% chance, but there have been some fairly comparable scenarios in sports recently.

Why is there no scenario?

I think on some level, he'd get a kick out of showing up to camp and making things incredibly awkward for Gute. 

What does he have to lose if he can't play anywhere else anyway? What's the worst case scenario for him if he does this? Shows up, collects 60 million dollars worth of checks to do nothing and makes his bosses look like complete buffoons in the process?

I think that's a higher probability scenario than "take the high road and just gracefully retire."

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Because Aaron Rodgers is not going to allow the world to watch him on the bench behind Jordan Love, particularly if they actually won some games and the camera panned his face for 1/3 of the game while the entire universe sees that, no, they actually don't need you. They don't look like buffoons then, he does. Not a chance it happens. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

29 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Why is there no scenario?

I think on some level, he'd get a kick out of showing up to camp and making things incredibly awkward for Gute. 

What does he have to lose if he can't play anywhere else anyway? What's the worst case scenario for him if he does this? Shows up, collects 60 million dollars worth of checks to do nothing and makes his bosses look like complete buffoons in the process?

I think that's a higher probability scenario than "take the high road and just gracefully retire."

A 40 yr old HOF quarterback doesn't willfully ride the pine to cash checks and waste one of the last years of his ability to actually play at the NFL level simply out of spite for the organization he's been a part of for almost 20 years.  Rodgers cares too much about his legacy to be that jaded.  He would also be the biggest hypocrite ever by repeating the same history that got his career started, which he's consistently maintained being something he'd never do himself.

[SeaBass]

37 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Why is there no scenario?

I think on some level, he'd get a kick out of showing up to camp and making things incredibly awkward for Gute. 

What does he have to lose if he can't play anywhere else anyway? What's the worst case scenario for him if he does this? Shows up, collects 60 million dollars worth of checks to do nothing and makes his bosses look like complete buffoons in the process?

I think that's a higher probability scenario than "take the high road and just gracefully retire."

Bring him back and make him play on special teams coverage units. WHOA SOLVD

Not blue because I'm serious. If they're paying him and he's dumb enough to make them pay him, make him play.

[adambr2]

20 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

A 40 yr old HOF quarterback doesn't willfully ride the pine to cash checks and waste one of the last years of his ability to actually play at the NFL level simply out of spite for the organization he's been a part of for almost 20 years.  Rodgers cares too much about his legacy to be that jaded.  He would also be the biggest hypocrite ever by repeating the same history that got his career started, which he's consistently maintained being something he'd never do himself.

And here's the (entirely fair, IMO) counterpoint to that:

Why should Aaron Rodgers, or why would Aaron Rodgers, retire and willingly walk away from the 60 million dollar contract that Brian Gutekunst willingly signed him to, just because the Packers won't trade him and won't start him?

[MrTPlush]

Rodgers is already wildly rich. Not only that, but this dude could also find a job holding a mic for tens of millions anyway if he was hell bent on making money. 

He has talked about retirement. I think he would just go be a sidekick to Pat Mcafee on a podcast called 'hybusca' or whatever it is. Rodgers likes football and all, but it isn't his entire personality like it is to Brady. 

It doesn't matter though because the Jets know the Packers aren't going to hold out till Rodgers just retires. Could they? Sure, but we all know it isn't happening, so it really isn't much for leverage. 

[adambr2]

My only issue really is with the concept that Rodgers announcing he's going to the Jets just gave us all the leverage in the world, and we should hold out until we get whatever we want, etc etc. I don't think that's an accurate portrayal of the situation at all. 

Ultimately, I don't think we can really say whether we should be holding out or just doing a deal now without really knowing what the offers are on the table. 

If the Jets are offering #43 this year and, for example, their 3rd next year that can become a 2nd if they make the playoffs and a 1st if they make the Super Bowl, I'd say just do the damn deal and be done with it. 

If we're willing to settle for something like that and the Jets are only offering some Favre like 3rd round pick return, then yeah, I'd wait. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

And here's the (entirely fair, IMO) counterpoint to that:

Why should Aaron Rodgers, or why would Aaron Rodgers, retire and willingly walk away from the 60 million dollar contract that Brian Gutekunst willingly signed him to, just because the Packers won't trade him and won't start him?

Because he's 40 and he wants to play - if he didn't want to play then sure, sit the bench and cash a huge check while destroying positive vibes from all corners instead of just retiring.

[wallus]

Another part about this that hasn't been talked about much is this draft. If this doesn't get done by this year's draft, that could change things a bit. The Jets have the 13th pick in the draft and would very likely have a much lower pick in next year's draft with Rodgers. Plus current year draft picks always have a little more value (even in what is considered a weaker draft). 

If the Jets want this to be a 2024 draft pick, they for sure need to cough up their first, maybe more.

[SeaBass]

As far as a fair trade package, this is the only one I really noticed but it's not awful. I actually liked it the more I thought about it. This scenario results in no 2023 draft pick for GB, I still would like to see a pick swap of 13 and 15 in addition to the rest of it though, I'm not letting that go lol.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-trade-package-heres-the-deal-the-jets-and-packers-should-agree-on-for-star-qb/

 

• Jets get: Aaron Rodgers. 
• Packers get: 2024 conditional second-round pick, 2025 conditional fourth-round pick. 

On the surface, Packers fans might hate this deal, but the conditions will definitely make it better for Green Bay. 

So what are the conditions here? 

• 2024 conditional second-round pick. If the Jets make the playoffs in 2023 and Rodgers plays at least 50% of the offensive snaps during the season, then the 2024 conditional second-round pick becomes a first-round pick. The Jets have the NFL's longest active drought without a playoff berth -- they haven't been to the postseason since 2010 -- and if Rodgers ends that, then New York should be more than happy to surrender a first-rounder. The other upside for the Jets here is that if they make the playoffs, that means in the worst-case scenario, they'll only be giving up the 19th overall pick. 
   
• 2025 conditional fourth-round pick. As for the 2025 conditional pick, this one is a little more complicated. If Rodgers decides to retire and doesn't play in 2024, then this stays a fourth-round pick. If Rodgers plays in 2024 and the Jets make the divisional round, this becomes a third-round pick. If they make the conference title game, it becomes a second-round pick and if they make the Super Bowl, it becomes a first-round pick. 

[Joseph Zarr]

The general consensus among draft pundits and draft talking heads is the 2024 draft is quite a bit more talented than the upcoming 2023 draft. To that end, it would seem a focus on 2024 compensation with a 13-to-15 swap would possibly even be ideal?

[GAME05]

If it goes on long enough Rodgers will start chirping about MLF and Murphy and talking about broken promises and so forth. If he were in a GB uniform again he'd only divide the whole locker room plus as soon as Love has a bad game the fans would be in an uproar. Rodgers back in GB for the sake of spite just isn't any realistic option at all.

[Fear The Chorizo]

53 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

If it goes on long enough Rodgers will start chirping about MLF and Murphy and talking about broken promises and so forth. If he were in a GB uniform again he'd only divide the whole locker room plus as soon as Love has a bad game the fans would be in an uproar. Rodgers back in GB for the sake of spite just isn't any realistic option at all.

You could replace Rodgers, MLF, Murphy, and Love with Favre, McCarthy, Thompson, and Rodgers from 16 or so summers ago in this post and it would be the exact same position too many people held then.  Let's just go watch the NCAA tournament and worry about this nonsense in a few weeks.

[Fear The Chorizo]

59 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

The general consensus among draft pundits and draft talking heads is the 2024 draft is quite a bit more talented than the upcoming 2023 draft. To that end, it would seem a focus on 2024 compensation with a 13-to-15 swap would possibly even be ideal?

I'd be just fine with a 13-15 swap, the Jet's 2023 2nd rounder, and a conditional 2024 draft pick that could range from a mid-round pick (if Rodgers retires and doesn't play in 2024) all the way up to a 1st round pick (if the Jets make the 2023 postseason OR Rodgers plays in 2024 for a team other than the Jets).

If 2023 is considered a down draft year, I'd be hesitant loading up on 1st round picks in this draft and carrying more than 1 of those 1st round rookie contracts compared to adding an early 2nd rounder.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know where this fiasco ends compensation-wise. The other part of this I'm looking forward to is being rid of all of 12's pals that are just not roster-worthy guys anymore. Tonyan, Lewis, Cobb, Crosby, even Lazard I am ok to watch walk. Just turn the page and see what's out there. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Because he's 40 and he wants to play - if he didn't want to play then sure, sit the bench and cash a huge check while destroying positive vibes from all corners instead of just retiring.

He doesn't get to play if he retires.

If we won't trade him or start him and he still wants to play, his best bet is to show up for a little bit, and wait us out until we cave and trade or release him. 

[HarveysWBs]

19 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I'd be just fine with a 13-15 swap, the Jet's 2023 2nd rounder, and a conditional 2024 draft pick that could range from a mid-round pick (if Rodgers retires and doesn't play in 2024) all the way up to a 1st round pick (if the Jets make the 2023 postseason OR Rodgers plays in 2024 for a team other than the Jets).

If 2023 is considered a down draft year, I'd be hesitant loading up on 1st round picks in this draft and carrying more than 1 of those 1st round rookie contracts compared to adding an early 2nd rounder.

I would also much rather load the draft picks up for 2024, and let’s just do a pick-swap this year.  In the (unlikely, IMO) event that Love proves horrifically inept or (slightly more likely) suffers a severe injury, I’d want the draft capital to possibly go get a QB.  It would be nice to at least have the option.

[brewcrewdue80]

In terms of draft trade value a pick swap is like getting the 100th selection end of 3rd rd.

1st #13 1150 value.

All of Jets remaining picks in 2023

843.5 Value. 20th pick value.

Swapping our 2nd for their 1st in the trade is net 700 value.  26th pick value.

Jets 2nd and 3rd is 690value. 27th pick value.

Swap first and get 2nd is 570 value. About 34th pick value.

Gambling with 2024 picks when Rodgers addition could be the best QB Jets have every had in their history by end of 2023?  God it's such loss because you see at best an 18th pick value of 900.(condition of making the playoffs worst record with playoff loss)

Win SB pick 32 is 590 value. 

 

Swap our 2 with their 1 has to be the minimum return value if Rodgers is traded before the draft 700 value.

I guess I could say 2&3. For 690value.

If you take a 2024 1st it's unconditional if you're not getting the minimum value before it,for 2023.

It's nuts to me people would trade Roders away for a 3rd rd pick to be over this.

 

 

[homer]

 

[Matt Breen]

I'm thinking we can still get something decent for Rodgers. A future #2 seems light. Maybe I'm wrong.

If we can't get a #1 this year, then how about:

2023 2nd Round Pick
2023 3rd Round Pick
WR Elijah Moore (I've said that I think he'd be a good addition. Jets were reportedly down a bit on him last year - and he requested a trade). 
2024 3rd round pick (becomes a 2nd if the Jets make the playoffs next year)
2025 4th round pick (becomes a 3rd if Rodgers plays in 2024)

Just an idea. 

I'm not a fan of adding WR Corey Davis due to his $10m+ salary. With Lazard joining the team, he seems redundant (and expensive). There's a chance he be cut at that price.

[HarryDoyle]

Tarvarius Moore signed. There's some safety help.

[Joseph Zarr]

44 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Tarvarius Moore signed. There's some safety help.

Young. Very fast. Can play Safety or CB(ish). Seems like a classic Packers pick-up. 

[adambr2]

4 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

In terms of draft trade value a pick swap is like getting the 100th selection end of 3rd rd.

1st #13 1150 value.

All of Jets remaining picks in 2023

843.5 Value. 20th pick value.

Swapping our 2nd for their 1st in the trade is net 700 value.  26th pick value.

Jets 2nd and 3rd is 690value. 27th pick value.

Swap first and get 2nd is 570 value. About 34th pick value.

Gambling with 2024 picks when Rodgers addition could be the best QB Jets have every had in their history by end of 2023?  God it's such loss because you see at best an 18th pick value of 900.(condition of making the playoffs worst record with playoff loss)

Win SB pick 32 is 590 value. 

 

Swap our 2 with their 1 has to be the minimum return value if Rodgers is traded before the draft 700 value.

I guess I could say 2&3. For 690value.

If you take a 2024 1st it's unconditional if you're not getting the minimum value before it,for 2023.

It's nuts to me people would trade Roders away for a 3rd rd pick to be over this.

 

 

No one is saying to just trade him for a 3rd to be done with it, but we can only trade Rodgers for whatever the market says he's worth, not whatever we think he's worth. 

His age, his contract, and most of all, the fact that we don't have anyone except the Jets bidding for his services, are all working against his market. 

[Sixtolezcano]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

You could replace Rodgers, MLF, Murphy, and Love with Favre, McCarthy, Thompson, and Rodgers from 16 or so summers ago in this post and it would be the exact same position too many people held then.  Let's just go watch the NCAA tournament and worry about this nonsense in a few weeks.

Or maybe in early September. Why do anything until then if the Jets drag their heels. We owe absolutely nothing to Rodgers and especially the Jets. It’s the off-season, why would the Packers or any Packer fans care what happens until the day before game 1.