Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[adambr2]

11 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Mid 1st round picks are traded for players all the time. I don't understand how asking for the Jets #1 is such an enormous ask. Jets fans are treating that pick like it's Walter Payton's incarnate, though.

They can ask for whatever they want. They just won't get it. He's 39. He's owed a ton of money, there's no guarantee he's more than a 1 year stopgap, and he took a pretty big step back last season from 2021 and 2020. There also isn't a multi-team bidding war going on for him. There's a plethora of reasons that his trade market isn't a guaranteed 1st, it is about more than just his career body of work. Can you name one 39 year old or older player in NFL history that was traded for a 1st round pick?

[adambr2]

Douglas not trying to leverage the Lamar trade request against the Packers. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

They can ask for whatever they want. They just won't get it. He's 39. He's owed a ton of money, there's no guarantee he's more than a 1 year stopgap, and he took a pretty big step back last season from 2021 and 2020. There also isn't a multi-team bidding war going on for him. There's a plethora of reasons that his trade market isn't a guaranteed 1st, it is about more than just his career body of work. Can you name one 39 year old or older player in NFL history that was traded for a 1st round pick?

It's pretty common for a step back to happen after winning back to back MVPs for a quarterback - particularly when you break the thumb on your throwing hand and you lose your best (and arguably the best) veteran WR to free agency and replace him with rookies who don't know yet what they're doing.  That's independent of age.

38 yr old 2021 Rodgers is worth more than a mid 1st round pick via trade no matter what's left on his contract - 39 yr old Rodgers isn't as valuable, but the exact calculus depends on how much of last season's scuffles were due to his thumb compared to father time finally snatching away Rodgers' ability to take over a game.  I think it's a combination of the two, and the uncertainty of it is a big reason why a trade hasn't happened yet.

I also don't the the Packers absolutely HAVE to get 2023 draft compensation in a trade for Rodgers, and because of that they may stick to their guns long enough for the Jets to sweat a bit more than they're doing right now.  There's zero need for the Packers, Rodgers, or for that matter the Jets to rush into a trade, even though all sides know it's going to eventually happen.  Thinking it's more of a case of not wanting to be the first to get antsy.

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

It's pretty common for a step back to happen after winning back to back MVPs for a quarterback - particularly when you break the thumb on your throwing hand and you lose your best (and arguably the best) veteran WR to free agency and replace him with rookies who don't know yet what they're doing.  That's independent of age.

38 yr old 2021 Rodgers is worth more than a mid 1st round pick via trade no matter what's left on his contract - 39 yr old Rodgers isn't as valuable, but the exact calculus depends on how much of last season's scuffles were due to his thumb compared to father time finally snatching away Rodgers' ability to take over a game.  I think it's a combination of the two, and the uncertainty of it is a big reason why a trade hasn't happened yet.

I also don't the the Packers absolutely HAVE to get 2023 draft compensation in a trade for Rodgers, and because of that they may stick to their guns long enough for the Jets to sweat a bit more than they're doing right now.  There's zero need for the Packers, Rodgers, or for that matter the Jets to rush into a trade, even though all sides know it's going to eventually happen.  Thinking it's more of a case of not wanting to be the first to get antsy.

If they're insisting on #13 than there's no guns to stick to after the draft, they just don't get it. Their '24 pick could be anywhere and I presume all parties are projecting it to be later than 13, probably in the 20s. 

Only way I can see it makes sense to wait until after is if Gute has a good feel that the Jets will be pretty amenable to making it a '24 1st with it being so far away and assuming they'll pick late. If that's the idea, I'd be fine with it. Otherwise, they almost certainly lose value waiting. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

One of the Jets’ trade demands was for Gutekunst to criticize Rodgers so they get the ticked off version. This is what gets the Packers the first.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

One of the Jets’ trade demands was for Gutekunst to criticize Rodgers so they get the ticked off version. This is what gets the Packers the first.

I'm not even sure this should be in blue. Dude always says he doesn't follow the media stuff, but I guarantee he is Googling himself every day in an effort to find even the slightest slight to motivate himself He's just spun a little (OK a lot) different.

[CheezWizHed]

Hard to know what is real and what is chaff out there, but this seems plausible...

2023 2nd round pick

2024 2nd round pick that can escalate to a first pending Jets playoff situation

...the sticking point is potential 2025 compensation from the Packers to Jets if Rodgers doesn't play in 2024.

If that is true, I think the compensation is fair and I'd agree the Pack should hold fast to avoid 2025 contingencies.

[Fear The Chorizo]

29 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Hard to know what is real and what is chaff out there, but this seems plausible...

2023 2nd round pick

2024 2nd round pick that can escalate to a first pending Jets playoff situation

...the sticking point is potential 2025 compensation from the Packers to Jets if Rodgers doesn't play in 2024.

If that is true, I think the compensation is fair and I'd agree the Pack should hold fast to avoid 2025 contingencies.

The proposed 2023 2nd and 2024 2nd that could become a 1st seems like decent value via trade for 1 season of Rodgers even with his current contract. In this scenario, if the Jets are adamant of future pick compensation in the event Rodgers only plays 1 more season and won't move off that hill, then GB should be insisting on their 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, and a conditional 2024 pick based on how the Jets perform next season because Rodgers' value shifts from just one season to multiple years.

The Packers have dealt with contingencies and unnecessary drama related to Rodgers over the past 3-4 seasons, so I'm sure Gute is just flat out done with it all at this point and is right to tell the Jets to pound sand asking for future draft pick compensation based on the whims of what Rodgers feels like doing 12 months from now - unless he gets trade value based on 2+ seasons of Rodgers upfront...dealing with drama is part of the drill with a veteran QB when he's in your organization, but in no way should there be any additional draft pick-related compensation headed to the Jets from Green Bay based on what ARod decides to do after a 2023 season that he plays for a different organization.  If the Jets want Rodgers, they should want all that comes with him. 

 

[adambr2]

29 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The proposed 2023 2nd and 2024 2nd that could become a 1st seems like decent value via trade for 1 season of Rodgers even with his current contract. In this scenario, if the Jets are adamant of future pick compensation in the event Rodgers only plays 1 more season and won't move off that hill, then GB should be insisting on their 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, and a conditional 2024 pick based on how the Jets perform next season because Rodgers' value shifts from just one season to multiple years.

The Packers have dealt with contingencies and unnecessary drama related to Rodgers over the past 3-4 seasons, so I'm sure Gute is just flat out done with it all at this point and is right to tell the Jets to pound sand asking for future draft pick compensation based on the whims of what Rodgers feels like doing 12 months from now - unless he gets trade value based on 2+ seasons of Rodgers upfront...dealing with drama is part of the drill with a veteran QB when he's in your organization, but in no way should there be any additional draft pick-related compensation headed to the Jets from Green Bay based on what ARod decides to do after a 2023 season that he plays for a different organization.  If the Jets want Rodgers, they should want all that comes with him. 

 

I don't think that contingencies are unreasonable in a case like this. The return for Favre was entirely contingency-based. I'd be happy to at least get the guaranteed 2nd in this case, and a chance at another high pick in '24 and/or '25. I think that's reasonable compensation. An additional 2nd would be gravy. 

Insisting on their 2023 1st is futile. They'll continue to wait and in a month it won't be there for us to insist on and we'll have lost all chances at any 2023 compensation. Gute isn't going to tell them to pound sand when he has absolutely no good alternatives to not getting the deal done. The deal will get done. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

38 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don't think that contingencies are unreasonable in a case like this. The return for Favre was entirely contingency-based. I'd be happy to at least get the guaranteed 2nd in this case, and a chance at another high pick in '24 and/or '25. I think that's reasonable compensation. An additional 2nd would be gravy. 

Insisting on their 2023 1st is futile. They'll continue to wait and in a month it won't be there for us to insist on and we'll have lost all chances at any 2023 compensation. Gute isn't going to tell them to pound sand when he has absolutely no good alternatives to not getting the deal done. The deal will get done. 

I'd say the return for Favre was more to avoid him going directly to the Vikings the same year the Jets acquired him.  The performance-based conditions were kind of unlikely, but oh well.  That scenario also occurred after the guy retired/unretired right at the start of training camp.

If the 2023 draft comes and goes before the trade gets done, then Gute can just insist on the Jets' 2024 1st and 2nd if the Jets are adamant about tying 2025 return draft pick compensation to this trade.

In the end, I agree that a deal gets done before this year's draft, it'll be good for both sides, and it won't carry multiple layers of contingency/conditional picks potentially heading both directions.

[Matt Breen]

Speculation is that the Jets really want one of the big offensive linemen (especially a tackle) in the draft - someone they can plug in from day one as a starter. Their line struggled last year - and they don't want to go and get Rodgers and have him killed by bad OL play. 

So I get why they want to keep the #1 pick. 

Personally, I'm okay with that (although I'd love to get it). I'd then really try and get the two seconds - #42 and #43. That would give us three picks in a four pick spread. I think there's a lot of value there. 

I also thinks there's a lot of value in the lower third of the first round. So it gives you ammunition to move up if someone you really like falls. 

The two #2s, plus a conditional pick in 2024, would be pretty good. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Wheres any rumor that the Jets are willing to part with both 2nd round picks instead of their first?  Trade value wise it's about 200pts less than the 13th on its own.  Whichever the two options 1 or both 2nds, just throw in #170 to move the needle just a smidge towards the Jets.

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[Matt Breen]

2 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Wheres any rumor that the Jets are willing to part with both 2nd round picks instead of their first?  Trade value wise it's about 200pts less than the 13th on its own.  Whichever the two options 1 or both 2nds, just throw in #170 to move the needle just a smidge towards the Jets.

 

I don't know of any specific 'rumor' about the Jets willing to part with both #2s. Just a desire on my part.

And sure - you can add more to make it more inline with value. Whatever works. I'm just not sure what the ultimate value will be that we acquire. 

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If the 2023 draft comes and goes before the trade gets done, then Gute can just insist on the Jets' 2024 1st and 2nd if the Jets are adamant about tying 2025 return draft pick compensation to this trade.

In the end, I agree that a deal gets done before this year's draft, it'll be good for both sides, and it won't carry multiple layers of contingency/conditional picks potentially heading both directions.

I think we'll get conditional piece(s). By heading both directions do you mean the Jets are asking to get something back from us if Rodgers were to retire? I agree that would be a silly request and I doubt it's being asked of us. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I think we'll get conditional piece(s). By heading both directions do you mean the Jets are asking to get something back from us if Rodgers were to retire? I agree that would be a silly request and I doubt it's being asked of us. 

Yes, I think we'll get conditional piece(s) - but I don't think any conditional pieces should or will go the other direction...unless the Jets pony up alot more than what's being discussed as likely trade value upfront.

That's what an earlier post in this thread insinuated - Jets are wanting 2025 draft compensation back from the Packers if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season as part of this trade.  If they won't move from that position, then I'd hope the Packers should demand more from them in the trade package upfront because the initial deal should be based on multiple Rodgers seasons in New York.  If the Jets truly are asking this, then I'd hope GB is insisting on their 2023 1st at this point as part of the trade.

Cheezwizhead's post or I'm not saying it's fact, but it's one of those rumors floating out there. 

[Matt Breen]

15 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I think we'll get conditional piece(s). By heading both directions do you mean the Jets are asking to get something back from us if Rodgers were to retire? I agree that would be a silly request and I doubt it's being asked of us. 

When I see 'conditional' pieces, I think of something like we get a 3rd round pick from the Jets in 2024, which becomes a 2nd if the team makes the playoffs. Or becomes a 1st if they reach the Super Bowl. That sort of thing.

You could also do the same thing regarding Rodgers playing to a pick - probably in 2025. That could be as simple as if Rodgers in on the Jets roster opening day 2024, the Packers get a (insert pick). 

I doubt they'd set up something where the packers had to send something back. But who knows. I guess it wouldn't be that hard to set up. Jets get the Packers (insert pick #) in 2025 if Rodgers doesn't play in 2024. A lot probably just depends on the rest of the trade package.

[brewcrewdue80]

17 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I don't know of any specific 'rumor' about the Jets willing to part with both #2s. Just a desire on my part.

And sure - you can add more to make it more inline with value. Whatever works. I'm just not sure what the ultimate value will be that we acquire. 

Yeah wasn't a response on your 2 2nds post just in general.  Wouldn't the timeline of Rodgers announcement, trade negotiations and GB desire for a 1st and then the Jets moving their WR and 3rd to get a 2nd back kinda hint that instead of a 2nd and 3rd vs the 1st rd pick the Jets improved their offer to be 2 2nds to keep the 1st?  Yet I don't see this floated around in rumors when I thought a 2nd and 3rd was a quick rumor when Rodgers came out he intended to play for the Jets.

One thing I'm noticing MSM is loaded with Jet fans, ESPN Radio you'll hear and I'm a Jets fan or know like Greeny is a huge Jets fan.  Their opinion is going to favor the trade in the Jets side.  So much so you hear them offering just a 3rd because they have "leverage" now.  Which the Jets don't have one to trade.

[wallus]

Just say no to 2025 compensation based on Rodgers coming back. Once he is traded, he is their problem on if he comes back or not.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's something that should be tossed at the Jets side. Aaron Rodgers value in 2022 was higher than any season value [according to profootball reference) the NYJets received after spending on 1st rd QBs in the 2000s. At #s 2, 3, 5, and 18 with their best drafted QB Chad Pennington.  13 should be easy to pay for Rodgers production theyve never had while spending higher draft capitol trying to attain.

[adambr2]

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-packers-jets-discussing-2-high-draft-picks-in-aaron-rodgers-trade-but-stuck-on-2024-protections-034812507.html

[GAME05]

Jets fans may think they have all the leverage, but the alternative is another mediocre season and an unhappy locker room with Wilson as the starter compared to being Superbowl contenders. On top of that if the Packers forego this year's draft picks, Rodgers sure becomes cheaper to trade after July 1. Feels like we should be getting a bump in value for trading him now as opposed to waiting, and a 2nd+conditional doesn't seem like very much.

Wasn't it that we can't afford Yosh Nijman? If they wanted an OL, wouldn't he make for a good addition to the trade in order to get their first-rounder?

[adambr2]

Gute has already basically conceded that we aren't insisting on #13. I don't really know why we are even speculating on it anymore.

Now, a 24 1st seems reasonably possible if the conditions are as reasonable as the last article suggests (Jets host a divisional playoff game or make the AFCCG), so get ready to cheer for the Jets in 2023.

[Joseph Zarr]

Asking for protections back in 2025 if A-Rod doesn't return is a 'no go' from my vantage point. If they stick hard to that, dig in the heels. That's the risk they take for the opportunity to have a meaningful shot. The 2024 compensation is also the validation of why the Packers aren't demanding a 1st rd pick imho.

[KeithStone53151]

17 hours ago, adambr2 said:

If they're insisting on #13 than there's no guns to stick to after the draft, they just don't get it. Their '24 pick could be anywhere and I presume all parties are projecting it to be later than 13, probably in the 20s. 

Are we sure Rodgers on that squad will be THAT good? With 2021 Rodgers, the Jets are NOT the best team in that division. With 2022 Rodgers they might be the worst team in that division. It would be quite hilarious if the Packers bet against Rodgers and settled on the 2024 first round pick as primary comp only to have it be a top 10 pick.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Gute has already basically conceded that we aren't insisting on #13. I don't really know why we are even speculating on it anymore.

Now, a 24 1st seems reasonably possible if the conditions are as reasonable as the last article suggests (Jets host a divisional playoff game or make the AFCCG), so get ready to cheer for the Jets in 2023.

Not insisting on it doesn't necessarily mean we aren't asking for comparable value. We might not be, but I wouldn't say he conceded getting #13 value.