Should have kept hiura

[pipesmoker22]

I bet he signs with a nl central team and will hit over .300 with 30 homeruns and over 100 rbis. Another big mistake by the brewers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, pipesmoker22 said:

I bet he signs with a nl central team and will hit over .300 with 30 homeruns and over 100 rbis. Another big mistake by the brewers.

First, welcome to the site. Second, it's very unlikely Keston will hit over .300. After his breakout rookie campaign, he hasn't had a batting average higher than .226.

The reality is that Hiura is a player who misses the ball way too often and doesn't have a position. I hope he sticks somewhere else and does well - I have no animosity toward the guy - but he just didn't fit into the Brewers plans anymore.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

27 minutes ago, pipesmoker22 said:

I bet he signs with a nl central team and will hit over .300 with 30 homeruns and over 100 rbis. Another big mistake by the brewers.

He's had three seasons of chances to improve, and had he shown even the slightest growth as a player, he'd still be a Brewer. Sometimes, regardless of the hype, it just doesn't work out. He'll sign somewhere and continue to run into a HR here and there, but he's never going to be the "hit to all fields" professional that he was hyped as, unless he decides to go back and find the skill set that got him drafted high. Unfortunately it has become obvious that isn't going to happen with the Brewers. 

[Outlander]

I think he stays, in the minority but don't think anybody claims/trades for him.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, pipesmoker22 said:

I bet he signs with a nl central team and will hit over .300 with 30 homeruns and over 100 rbis. Another big mistake by the brewers.

Firstly, it’s Hiura with one r, secondly, the only mistake made by this FO with regards to Hiura was rostering him as long as they did. Never should have been tendered last fall.

[Fear The Chorizo]

20 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Firstly, it’s Hiura with one r, secondly, the only mistake made by this FO with regards to Hiura was rostering him as long as they did. Never should have been tendered last fall.

Given the hitting talent Hiura has that warranted him being a 1st round talent the year he was drafted, I don't think it was a mistake to tender him last fall - if a team doesn't pick him up on his current salary I think it would still be worth it to the Brewers to have Hiura in their system at that amount in case he does right the ship this season.   

Whether it's as a Brewer or most likely another team, we haven't seen the last of Hiura at the MLB level, and I think he will eventually find a solid career for an organization as a DH.  One option I can definitely see Hiura pursuing is playing a season or two overseas to reinvent himself as a hitter - a la Eric Thames.  To me the Japanese or Korean leagues would be ideal for Keston, since he has more of a slider speed bat and the velo just isn't as consistently high as it is in MLB.

I've always pulled for the guy and am still confident he's going to right the ship - just bummed he's most likely going to do it with a different team at some point.

[Harold Hutchison]

Hiura certainly was a disappointment from 2021-2022 (he still had a LOT of power in 2020, and I wonder if that messed him up). To me, it is a cautionary tale of moving a prospect too fast - and it's something I hope the Crew keeps in mind with Chourio.

The lesson is obvious - especially given Chourio's struggles in Biloxi (small sample, I know), and how he did in spring training and in the VWL this year - take the foot off the gas. Keep Chourio at AA all year, and see if he can make the adjustments. 

I think Hiura's best shot is to be in Korea or Japan for a few years, and to take the Thames route. Hopefully, he will have a good career elsewhere. His 2019-2022 performance is not a bad return compared to some of the other players taken in the first round to date.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2017&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

 

[sveumrules]

300/30/100 for Keston? Must be some good stuff in that pipe.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

I think Hiura could conceivably provide Dan Uggla-level of performance. Keston is still younger than when Uggla debuted.

Uggla had career .783 OPS, near to Keston’s .771.

That said, I’m fine with the DFA and would welcome Hiura back.

[Fear The Chorizo]

32 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Hiura certainly was a disappointment from 2021-2022 (he still had a LOT of power in 2020, and I wonder if that messed him up). To me, it is a cautionary tale of moving a prospect too fast - and it's something I hope the Crew keeps in mind with Chourio.

The lesson is obvious - especially given Chourio's struggles in Biloxi (small sample, I know), and how he did in spring training and in the VWL this year - take the foot off the gas. Keep Chourio at AA all year, and see if he can make the adjustments. 

I think Hiura's best shot is to be in Korea or Japan for a few years, and to take the Thames route. Hopefully, he will have a good career elsewhere. His 2019-2022 performance is not a bad return compared to some of the other players taken in the first round to date.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2017&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

 

I disagree on the notion Hiura was rushed and that's why he couldn't make enough contact at the MLB level to justify a roster spot - he was arguably the top collegiate hitter in his draft class and didn't have anything to prove at the lower minor league levels.  When he hasn't been in MLB the past few seasons, he's torn the cover off the ball and would likely continue to do so.  The one thing I keep going back to with Hiura as a Brewer in the majors is the fact he was yo-yo'd so much in and out of the lineup even when he was up with the MLB club, and after his 2019 rookie season I think they tried throwing him in too many defensive positions to try and get his bat into the lineup (no DH at the time).  Part of that is on Hiura because his offensive performance didn't justify finding ways to keep him in the lineup consistently...but something happened to his approach between 2019 and spring training 2021 that emphasized power over contact, and it changed the hitter Hiura was supposed to be.

The reverse splits Hiura has never made him a good platoon fit on a roster with alot of LH bats at spots he could potentially play.  I think he'd round into an above-average DH at the MLB level if a rebuilding team just gives him that role for a season and pencils him in the lineup every day.  I think he's more than a AAAA player, but I could be wrong and there's plenty of other hitters with similar career arcs who couldn't make the adjustment to hitting MLB pitching consistently enough to stick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The reverse splits Hiura has never made him a good platoon fit on a roster with alot of LH bats at spots he could potentially play.  I think he'd round into an above-average DH at the MLB level if a rebuilding team just gives him that role for a season and pencils him in the lineup every day.  I think he's more than a AAAA player, but I could be wrong and there's plenty of other hitters with similar career arcs who couldn't make the adjustment to hitting MLB pitching consistently enough to stick.

I'd classify Hiura as a AAAA guy but my opinion of AAAA guys is that they're generally pretty capable players with flaws who just haven't received a legitimate shot at regular playing time. That certainly fits a description of Hiura.

[Jopal78]

The best starting pitchers in the world are in the major leagues. 

Hiura was initially able to hit them until pitchers adjusted how they attacked him, and heretofore he has been unable to make a successful counter-adjustment. That is exclusively why his MLB career is hanging by a thread.
 

The dustbin of MLB history is littered with stories like that. If anything is unique about his scenario, it’s the Brewers patience in letting him continually try to put it together at the major league level. 

[tmwiese55]

That and he changed his swing to be more uppercut to chase the launch angle and HRs. Who knows if that was his move or if he was coached to it.  But if a new team/coach can get that corrected and back to how he started he'd still have a chance, but after 2-3 years of this the chances are quite low. 

[torts]

He came, he posted, he vanished.

[Harold Hutchison]

54 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I disagree on the notion Hiura was rushed and that's why he couldn't make enough contact at the MLB level to justify a roster spot - he was arguably the top collegiate hitter in his draft class and didn't have anything to prove at the lower minor league levels.  When he hasn't been in MLB the past few seasons, he's torn the cover off the ball and would likely continue to do so.  The one thing I keep going back to with Hiura as a Brewer in the majors is the fact he was yo-yo'd so much in and out of the lineup even when he was up with the MLB club, and after his 2019 rookie season I think they tried throwing him in too many defensive positions to try and get his bat into the lineup (no DH at the time).  Part of that is on Hiura because his offensive performance didn't justify finding ways to keep him in the lineup consistently...but something happened to his approach between 2019 and spring training 2021 that emphasized power over contact, and it changed the hitter Hiura was supposed to be.

The reverse splits Hiura has never made him a good platoon fit on a roster with alot of LH bats at spots he could potentially play.  I think he'd round into an above-average DH at the MLB level if a rebuilding team just gives him that role for a season and pencils him in the lineup every day.  I think he's more than a AAAA player, but I could be wrong and there's plenty of other hitters with similar career arcs who couldn't make the adjustment to hitting MLB pitching consistently enough to stick.

If they had taken some more time, perhaps the issues could have been noticed, and the Crew could have either addressed them or they could have traded Hiura before they were glaringly obvious to other teams.

Hiura got the Brewers to the Wild Card in 2019 and 2020, but it is obvious that the Brewers bungled his service time and roster options to a degree.

Chourio is obviously showing vulnerabilities in Biloxi and in this year's spring training. I, for one, think it may be a good idea to go full years in AA and AAA. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after 2024. 

 

[Playing Catch]

I will predict Hiura gets picked up by some bad team. His prospect pedigree paired with his somewhat limited roles makes him a good pickup for some team that isn't trying to compete in the hopes that he "clicks". He's worth a flyer, even at $2M, IMHO.

[MVP2110]

 

 

[markedman5]

6 hours ago, pipesmoker22 said:

I bet he signs with a nl central team and will hit over .300 with 30 homeruns and over 100 rbis. Another big mistake by the brewers.

Wrong……

 

[igor67]

I'm very surprised he cleared waivers. It's not like he's a blackhole offensively. There are players who've shown less that still get playing time

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

Wrong……

 

I guess we shouldn't really be surprised. The league has figured him out, and he hasn't adjusted. I am fully expecting him to hit .350 with a bunch of HRs in Nashville. Who knows ... maybe that will get some team to bite on a minor trade? 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I guess we shouldn't really be surprised. The league has figured him out, and he hasn't adjusted. I am fully expecting him to hit .350 with a bunch of HRs in Nashville. Who knows ... maybe that will get some team to bite on a minor trade? 

Hiura hitting .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI feels absolutely possible in AAA lol

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I'm very surprised he cleared waivers. It's not like he's a blackhole offensively. There are players who've shown less that still get playing time

There has been an adjustment league-wide. Teams are trending toward being strikeout-adverse again. Hiura's astronomical K rate, when combined with his lack of any defensive value, means that even bad teams can't afford to pencil him in as their primary DH. 

[Lathund]

Great news. If there's something to be salvaged, there's now a full season to work on things, while a more productive player remains on the major league roster. And unless I'm mistaken, Keston still gets paid. I thought some tanking team would take a flyer, but there wasn't really a good fit for a team to give full-time 1B or DH duties, not when it also cost a couple of million. So it's not all that surprising. Unlike fans, teams don't just look at outcomes, they look at what's behind it. And noone thinks a 115 wRC+ is real when it comes alongside a 42% strikeout rate anda  .317 xwOBA, or league-worst contact rates, or whichever underlying metrics they look at. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hiura hitting .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI feels absolutely possible in AAA lol

Possible, even likely lol. He's raked at literally every stop in the minors. Then, once he gets called back up to majors he proceeds to struggles with Ks. Like clockwork.

[sveumrules]

57 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If they had taken some more time, perhaps the issues could have been noticed, and the Crew could have either addressed them or they could have traded Hiura before they were glaringly obvious to other teams.

Hiura got the Brewers to the Wild Card in 2019 and 2020, but it is obvious that the Brewers bungled his service time and roster options to a degree.

Chourio is obviously showing vulnerabilities in Biloxi and in this year's spring training. I, for one, think it may be a good idea to go full years in AA and AAA. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after 2024. 

How is it obvious they bungled anything? 

He was up for all of 2020 and hit for an 88 wRC+ with a 34.6% K rate. Ok, whatever, it was the pandemic. Write it off. Try again next year.

Keston got regular PT to start 2021 and put up a 43 wRC+ with a 36.0% K rate before being demoted on May 2. They called him back up for 5/24 to 6/6 but he put up a -36 wRC+ (yes, that is a negative wRC+) and 48.5% K rate.

Jackson got 26 plate appearances in AA as an 18 year old. His K rate (& all other stats besides being 18 in AA) at Biloxi is statistical noise. Chourio's K rate actually declined from 28.0% to 21.8% over a much larger (though still small) sample when he moved from A up to A+.