NL Central Discussion

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

The Cardinals lost 8-7, largely thanks to Nick Ahmed roping this pitch for a 2-run double instead of striking out. The next batter then smoked a 3-run homer.

 

That was a beautiful sequence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know everyone has PTSD over the Cardinals but that pitching staff is not good, I'm still confused why some projection systems had them ranked so highly overall.

[igor67]

Speaking of the schedule, the change to playing everyone is really jarring after all these years. I went looking for the stretch when we could try and beat up on the Central teams, and it's just not there. September is the only month we have more than 2 full series against team in the Central. It's just weird.

[Jake McKibbin]

I dont mind it i have to say, it's nice to keep it even and actually enjoy all the different players in the league

[MrTPlush]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I know everyone has PTSD over the Cardinals but that pitching staff is not good, I'm still confused why some projection systems had them ranked so highly overall.

Hasn't been good so far, but going into the year it was definitely in the same realm as the Brewers. They don't have the elite talent at the front of the rotation, but even old Wainwright and Mikolas are a solid front end. Montgomery isn't as flashy as Peralta, but results wise I think he is close. Flaherty is a decent back-end guy if he can stay healthy. Their #5 spot is a total trainwreck though and their rotation is going to get very rough with any kind of injuries. I think I would much rather have their bullpen.  Their rotation lacks the depth, but it also has some big question marks. Wainwright actually pitching to a high level is questionable with his age and Mikolas has been a bit inconsistent in his career.

Things will eventually correct themselves. I think they still have a pretty solid team. They aren't a force in any facet...but they have enough pieces to win some games.

We are acting all high and mighty now, but over the long run not having Woodruff is going to catch up to us. We also have kept winning and it has masked the fact the rookie hitters have quickly started circling the drain from their hot starts. Wiemer is absolutely terrible, Mitchell is striking out at an insane pace, and Turang has been no better. Turang's homer is his only XBH since like the fourth game, Mitchell hasn't seen an XBH since the 9th, and Wiemer has a single hit since the 8th. That is pretty concerning. Everyone has hot/cold streaks...but seeing it out of rookies isn't a great look.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Speaking of the schedule, the change to playing everyone is really jarring after all these years. I went looking for the stretch when we could try and beat up on the Central teams, and it's just not there. September is the only month we have more than 2 full series against team in the Central. It's just weird.

Did the same thing the other day.

Only six games vs NLC teams of the first 18 games so far. Don’t play another NLC team until game 41 on May 15th.

Don’t play CIN for the first time until June 2nd (57th game), don’t play PIT for the first time until June 16th (69th game).

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Everyone has hot/cold streaks...but seeing it out of rookies isn't a great look.

Rookies having valleys that outnumber their good stretches is totally expected as they adjust to MLB, I don’t see how it’s any more or less of a not great look than when veterans with an established track record and thousands of MLB PAs do the same thing.

Turang’s 9.3 BB% and 25.9 K% are considerably ahead of Mitchell’s 6.5 BB% and 38.7 K% on both fronts.

Wiemer has the worst actual results (56 wRC+) but somehow the best plate discipline with a 13.3 BB% and 21.7 K% so far.

Throw in positive defense & base running and BRef has the trio down for 1.4 WAR already, even with all their to be expected struggles.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Rookies having valleys that outnumber their good stretches is totally expected as they adjust to MLB, I don’t see how it’s any more or less of a not great look than when veterans with an established track record and thousands of MLB PAs do the same thing.

Turang’s 9.3 BB% and 25.9 K% are considerably ahead of Mitchell’s 6.5 BB% and 38.7 K% on both fronts.

Wiemer has the worst actual results (56 wRC+) but somehow the best plate discipline with a 13.3 BB% and 21.7 K% so far.

Throw in positive defense & base running and BRef has the trio down for 1.4 WAR already, even with all their to be expected struggles.

I acknowledged this. I didn't say they should all be demoted. Wiemer is the only one worthy of a demotion, if Taylor was healthy.

The difference is veteran's have proven track records of being good. A rookie has no track record. When Adames starts struggling you know he will eventually look good again. These rookies start's may have been a blip and one (or multiple) may be in for a very rough year. A lot of our season hinges on these guys being competent bats. 

Their defense/baserunning is great and all, but they are 33% of our lineup. Being really poor hitters isn't going to make that worth it. If you want an elite defender that can't hit (especially in the OF) there are dozens of guys in the minors worth nothing that can do that for you. 

Them all being absolutely horrendous lately is concerning, that is all. 

[RWeeksFan23]

TPlush, i think youre a little harsh on Weimer; despite what his stats are, he doesnt look bad at the plate, nevermind his great defense.

[StearnsFTW]

The Cardinals pitching was not in the same realm as the Brewers' preseason.

 

Like not at all. 

[82brewcrew82]

I am absolutely fascinated by the subset of Brewers fandom that will actively twist themselves into knots trying to explain why other teams warts are not actually warts and that anything the Brewers experience is disastrous and/or can't possibly be sustained.  Not one of them would have looked at a rotation fronted by a guy whose pitched 150 innings over the last three years and a journeymen whose ERA+ is within 10 points of Eric Lauer's as a solid top of the rotation if it were a Brewer opening day rotation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 hours ago, igor67 said:

Speaking of the schedule, the change to playing everyone is really jarring after all these years. I went looking for the stretch when we could try and beat up on the Central teams, and it's just not there. September is the only month we have more than 2 full series against team in the Central. It's just weird.

It's fantastic and long overdue, IMO - particularly with having multiple wildcard teams from each league in the postseason.  They had to balance the schedule out in effort to get the best teams in the playoffs regardless of their geographic locations.  I don't care if the teams suck, I hated having to watch 9-10 Brewers games played at empty Pirates' or Reds' ballparks - play more games against different teams for fans to see other players more frequently!

[brewcrewdue80]

7-3 west coast road trip complete. Not another stretch of tough games like Crew just went through these 19games until May 15th beginning with StL that we sit 6! Games in front already!   Tied for best record in NL. Welcome home! This week.

Oops I may have intended for Optimism thread.

[Jake McKibbin]

[homer]

So are the Cubs good? That's annoying.

[Dragonbait]

I'm fine with the Cubs beating up on the Dodgers.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, homer said:

So are the Cubs good? That's annoying.

I don’t know if they’re playoffs good but they’re definitely better than last year. On the other hand, the Dodgers are a lot worse than they were last year and are a great candidate to miss the playoffs of last year’s playoff teams.

[wallus]

2 hours ago, homer said:

So are the Cubs good? That's annoying.

We were all making fun of Cody Bellinger in the opening series. Take a look at his stats now.... sigh.

[Frisbee Slider]

After 22 games, anyone buying the Pirates finishing in second place or having 82+ wins?

They need to go 67-73, the rest of the way.

[brewerfan82]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

After 22 games, anyone buying the Pirates finishing in second place or having 82+ wins?

They need to go 67-73, the rest of the way.

I'm not there yet. Neither is FanGraphs:

[Frisbee Slider]

What data could Fangraphs be using to predict the Cardinals will outperform Milwaukee the rest of the way?

[igor67]

Soft schedule, and such means 79 games sounds about right at the moment. It is a long season, but when it comes to making it to .500 it doesn't take a super long time before those locked in wins make it a lot easier to get to .500. The other item is a strong start does might not make it more likely for the Pirates to be big buyers at the deadline, but it almost certainly keeps them away from being sellers.

[brewerfan82]

26 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What data could Fangraphs be using to predict the Cardinals will outperform Milwaukee the rest of the way?

I think predominantly ZiPS player projections. I'm not sure if it's updated throughout the season (or how often) to account for injuries to Woodruff, Ashby, Houser, Mitchell, Urias, Taylor, etc., but that's certainly a concern as well.

[82brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What data could Fangraphs be using to predict the Cardinals will outperform Milwaukee the rest of the way?

The better question is whether the projections are actually accurate in predicting anything at all.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, brewerfan82 said:

I'm not there yet. Neither is FanGraphs:

The Pirates pitching is vastly underrated and has transformed them into team to be reckoned with. Playoffs probably not. 82 wins— quite possible.

Keller and Oviedo have taken big-steps forward and with the age-less Rich Hill continuing to get outs and Roansey Contreras pitching like his stuff warrants, they have the makings of an average to maybe even an above average starting-staff.

Collin Holderman has really exploded onto the scene and given the team a dominant set-up man for David Bednar. Duane Underwood & co are underrated middle-relievers as well.

Then add their young, fast and talented positional players to that improved pitching-staff and suddenly you have a pretty good team.