Rumor: Heyman discusses the likelihood of trading Burnes

[brewers888]

The longer we hold on to Burnes the lower his value gets and taking the draft pick compensation is just not smart for the future. Hopefully Burnes pitches well and we cash him in at the deadline where a contending team will have him for two playoff runs. The sooner we realize that this team isn't good the sooner the selloff can begin.

[LouisEly]

On 5/31/2023 at 2:31 AM, BlightyBrew said:

At the end of the day, there will only be a 3-4 teams that will be able to afford the contract Burnes will get come free agency.   I don't see mid market teams willing to expend impact prospect capital( that the Brewers need to move the needle for this organization) to get Burnes for either a 1.5 or 1 year when they know they won't be able to afford his FA contract. 

Yes and no.  A mid-market team might be willing to do that at the trade deadline, knowing that if things fall apart they can trade Burnes in the off-season for 80% of what they gave up.  However, as long as the Brewers stay in contention (and as bad as they've been they still have the 4th most wins in the NL), they aren't dealing Burnes at the deadline.

The beauty of waiting until the offseason is that the Brewers can agree to a trade in principle first and then let that team negotiate an extension with Burnes as a contingency of the deal.  If a team knows that they can for sure extend Burnes, that eliminates some risk which increases the return for Burnes.

[Lathund]

Burnes will have less value than if he was pitching at his 2021 numbers for sure. I think the differnece is less than we might imagine though, for two reasons. 

The first is that he wouldn't have returned what he was actually worth if he was pitching at that level. That was a 7.5 fWAR season, but I don't think any team would truly give up the kind of prospect capital that actually matches that. So the return would be a bit less, thus making the difference smaller. 

The second is that the struggles aren't accompanied by a worrying loss of velocity (Slightly down but not much), stuff (in terms of movement etc), or injuries/age. His stuff isn't that of the historically great 1.63 FIP or the low 2s ERA he put up. But even with his struggles it's a mid 3s ERA, and since he's not broken down or anything, that'd be looked at as more of a floor, given his past exploits. Look at the kind of money that pitchers who are worse even than that are getting; Walker, Taillon etc. And that's with no realistic upside to get better. Obviously extrapolating trade value for 1-1,5 years of one player from multi-year contracts from others is hard to do, but the point is that even "just" an above-average starter is something teams value very highly. Burnes, even at present, is better than that. 

Also, an in-season trade seems extremely unlikely to me. Trading a starter and a reliever are two very different things. Brewers would have to be really, really out of it for that to happen. And the NLC is just too bad for that to be realistic. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:32 PM, brewers888 said:

The longer we hold on to Burnes the lower his value gets and taking the draft pick compensation is just not smart for the future. Hopefully Burnes pitches well and we cash him in at the deadline where a contending team will have him for two playoff runs. The sooner we realize that this team isn't good the sooner the selloff can begin.

There is 0 chance the Brewers trade Burnes at this year's deadline if they're leading their division.  If he does get back on a roll and the Brewers get Woodruff healthy and Peralta righted, that's playoff rotation no team will be eager to face.  The division the Brewers play in makes them the a contending team that could use Burnes for two playoff runs if they can fit his annual arbitration contract into their budget - it would cost them more in prospects/dollars to acquire a similar pitcher to replace him, so why trade Burnes?  To me, it'd be a different story if the Brewers were in the AL East or NL West.

Much higher likelihood Burnes is either dealt in the coming offseason (either to a team interested in extending him or to a team wanting to "go for it" in 2024 knowing they've only got him for 1 year of control - and if they fall flat they can flip him at next year's deadline).  Or the Brewers roll with Burnes into 2024 and either trade him at the deadline or get one last full season out of him before he walks in FA.

 

[SF70]

On 6/5/2023 at 10:39 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

There is 0 chance the Brewers trade Burnes at this year's deadline if they're leading their division.  If he does get back on a roll and the Brewers get Woodruff healthy and Peralta righted, that's playoff rotation no team will be eager to face.  The division the Brewers play in makes them the a contending team that could use Burnes for two playoff runs if they can fit his annual arbitration contract into their budget - it would cost them more in prospects/dollars to acquire a similar pitcher to replace him, so why trade Burnes?  To me, it'd be a different story if the Brewers were in the AL East or NL West.

Much higher likelihood Burnes is either dealt in the coming offseason (either to a team interested in extending him or to a team wanting to "go for it" in 2024 knowing they've only got him for 1 year of control - and if they fall flat they can flip him at next year's deadline).  Or the Brewers roll with Burnes into 2024 and either trade him at the deadline or get one last full season out of him before he walks in FA.

 

deGrom’s TJ, Menoha’s optioning to the Blue jays pitching lab, the tremendous amount of teams that will likely be in playoff contention/WS contention will make a trade of Burnes too good to pass up, imo.

There will be no-one with as much value as him, no-one that will get teams to overpay like him. The team has already shown they are willing to move a great player having a down year if the return can potentially get player/players that can help now and the future.

If Texas offered Duran, White & Porter for Burnes can we say no?

If SD offered Merrill & Lesco plus plus?

Toronto Tiedemann plus plus plus?

[Playing Catch]

In the hypothetical that some team makes an offer the Brewers can't refuse, I suppose it's possible the Brewers would trade him, but I tend to think that many of us are putting too much weight on the Hader decision last season, as if it was the new model for doing business. I tend to agree with the poster that stated that trading a SP is much much different than trading a closer from a stacked bullpen.

We also seem to forget that Hader was struggling mightily before the trade, and that the Brewers got a good closer (also struggling) back in the deal. If you squint, there is enough evidence there that the Brewers legitimately believed trading Hader at that time and getting Rogers back made the Brewers better last season. I doubt many of us here would have agreed with that, but it is possible, and it certainly didn't work, if that was the goal. A similar deadline deal involving Burnes would not just net prospects, but also get back a legit MLB starter.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

There will be no-one with as much value as him, no-one that will get teams to overpay like him.

Shane Bieber may become available during the deadline and that is a possible player who could bring as much value as Burnes does.  So there really isn’t no one.  Wheeler could also become available if the Phillies continue to struggle.

[wibadgers23]

There's about a 99% chance Burnes won't get traded at the deadline.  He'll get traded in the offseason.  I guess we could completely fall apart in the next 7 or so weeks and drop in the standings, but I doubt it.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Shane Bieber may become available during the deadline and that is a possible player who could bring as much value as Burnes does.  So there really isn’t no one.  Wheeler could also become available if the Phillies continue to struggle.

Yes Bieber is close, but no cigar. Upside with Burnes is higher. Wheeler is 33 and past prime.

[brewerfan82]

Burnes (Age 28, $10M in '23, Arb3 in '24) vs. Bieber (Age 28, $10M in '23, Arb3 in '24) vs. Wheeler (Age 33, $24.5M in '23, $23.5M in '24) is interesting.

2023:

Past 2 Seasons:

Past 3 Seasons:

 

[sveumrules]

25 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Burnes (Age 28, $10M in '23, Arb3 in '24) vs. Bieber (Age 28, $10M in '23, Arb3 in '24) vs. Wheeler (Age 33, $24.5M in '23, $23.5M in '24) is interesting.

2023:

Past 2 Seasons:

Past 3 Seasons:

 

Good breakdown. Hadn't noticed before how much the Phillies defense (-12 DRS | 24th) had impacted Wheeler specifically so far this year with that 4.33 ERA vs 2.85 FIP, though he's also had some HR luck early on with the 3.58 xFIP.

Either way, I don't see the Phils dealing him just because they are so pot-committed with big money long term contracts.

[Playing Catch]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

Shane Bieber may become available during the deadline and that is a possible player who could bring as much value as Burnes does.  So there really isn’t no one.  Wheeler could also become available if the Phillies continue to struggle.

So what would the Brewers give up for Bieber?

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

So what would the Brewers give up for Bieber?

For whatever it is or isn’t worth, baseball trade values has Bieber at $45M, Burnes at $51M.

Obviously the values aren’t incontrovertible, but some combination of Frelick ($33M), Ashby ($20M), Quero ($14M), Mitchell ($12M), Black ($9M), and our Comp Balance Pick ($6M) would likely be the most appealing assets to Cleveland.

[Oxy]

12 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

In the hypothetical that some team makes an offer the Brewers can't refuse, I suppose it's possible the Brewers would trade him, but I tend to think that many of us are putting too much weight on the Hader decision last season, as if it was the new model for doing business. I tend to agree with the poster that stated that trading a SP is much much different than trading a closer from a stacked bullpen.

We also seem to forget that Hader was struggling mightily before the trade, and that the Brewers got a good closer (also struggling) back in the deal. If you squint, there is enough evidence there that the Brewers legitimately believed trading Hader at that time and getting Rogers back made the Brewers better last season. I doubt many of us here would have agreed with that, but it is possible, and it certainly didn't work, if that was the goal. A similar deadline deal involving Burnes would not just net prospects, but also get back a legit MLB starter.

mmmm....I'm not sure about that. Hader blew MULTIPLE games/saves for the Padres in the first few weeks after we traded him. Had he done that with the Brewers our season would have been sunk even earlier than it was.

The guy was nails in the playoffs though. And this year, of course.  It would be fun to still have the 2 best relievers in baseball...

[Fear The Chorizo]

22 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Good breakdown. Hadn't noticed before how much the Phillies defense (-12 DRS | 24th) had impacted Wheeler specifically so far this year with that 4.33 ERA vs 2.85 FIP, though he's also had some HR luck early on with the 3.58 xFIP.

Either way, I don't see the Phils dealing him just because they are so pot-committed with big money long term contracts.

I'm getting an impression that this year's trade deadline is going to be a dud for teams hoping to sell high end talent with the expectation of getting huge prospect value back in return.  Too many of the huge market clubs currently scuffling along just aren't going to sell impact players, and they also are so heavily invested into veteran players across most of their roster that there's no point of them to get aggressive and become buyers, either - I'm guessing they'll largely just play out the string with what they have in hopes they get healthy/hot and find a way to eek into a wide open playoff field.

Additionally, mid to small market teams currently at the top of many of the divisions/in the playoff picture aren't going to want to trade bluechip prospects for middling veteran talent that may or may not make their team better - I can see a bunch of bullpen pieces being traded for lottery tickets or so-so blocked prospects from one team to another, but not much more.  Maybe the Rangers make a splashy trade for more pitching now that DeGrom's done for the year - and I can see them wanting Bieber if Cleveland opts to sell.

Because of this, and because the NL Central is incredibly winnable for this Brewers team even with no significant roster upgrades, I think Burnes gets dealt this offseason and they ride as far as he and Woody can take them this year in the postseason.  Maybe the Pads fall on their face even further and try to restock their system with a Soto trade, too.

[MadThinker88]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I'm getting an impression that this year's trade deadline is going to be a dud for teams hoping to sell high end talent with the expectation of getting huge prospect value back in return.  Too many of the huge market clubs currently scuffling along just aren't going to sell impact players, and they also are so heavily invested into veteran players across most of their roster that there's no point of them to get aggressive and become buyers, either - I'm guessing they'll largely just play out the string with what they have in hopes they get healthy/hot and find a way to eek into a wide open playoff field.

Additionally, mid to small market teams currently at the top of many of the divisions/in the playoff picture aren't going to want to trade bluechip prospects for middling veteran talent that may or may not make their team better - I can see a bunch of bullpen pieces being traded for lottery tickets or so-so blocked prospects from one team to another, but not much more.  Maybe the Rangers make a splashy trade for more pitching now that DeGrom's done for the year - and I can see them wanting Bieber if Cleveland opts to sell.

Because of this, and because the NL Central is incredibly winnable for this Brewers team even with no significant roster upgrades, I think Burnes gets dealt this offseason and they ride as far as he and Woody can take them this year in the postseason.  Maybe the Pads fall on their face even further and try to restock their system with a Soto trade, too.

I doubt Texas would call CLE or try to deal fro Bieber..

The last time CLE traded a SP to Texas it was Corey Kluber to Texas for Delino DeShields Jr & a young RH reliever pitcher named Emmanuel Clase.   

Kluber lasted only 1 IP for Teas before getting injured and then departing as a FA after that season (going to NY Yankees if my memory is correct)..

[nate82]

42 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

I doubt Texas would call CLE or try to deal fro Bieber..

The last time CLE traded a SP to Texas it was Corey Kluber to Texas for Delino DeShields Jr & a young RH reliever pitcher named Emmanuel Clase.   

Kluber lasted only 1 IP for Teas before getting injured and then departing as a FA after that season (going to NY Yankees if my memory is correct)..

That was a completely different GM I believe and it would be rather stupid to not do a trade with another team because you had a bad trade in the past. 

[SF70]

On 6/8/2023 at 7:18 PM, MadThinker88 said:

I doubt Texas would call CLE or try to deal fro Bieber..

The last time CLE traded a SP to Texas it was Corey Kluber to Texas for Delino DeShields Jr & a young RH reliever pitcher named Emmanuel Clase.   

Kluber lasted only 1 IP for Teas before getting injured and then departing as a FA after that season (going to NY Yankees if my memory is correct)..

Jon Daniels is long-gone from that organization and Chris Young isn’t going to not trade with Cleveland because of one bad trade. My guess is with deGrom having TJ, Texas will want a 1st/2nd game playoff starter and Bieber fits the bill. But so does Burnes. 

 

[Jake McKibbin]

If Adames was traded, and you got pitching back, i wonder would the Brewers go for a high ceiling guy like Carson Williams, and  Kyle Manzardo  from the Rays for Burnes. Both positions they have covered for a while with Franco and Diaz

Manzardo is fairly similar profile wise to Vinne Pasquantino, and may be ready for big leagues. Tellez could be added in to even the trade up a little

Williams is high power, a minor league gold glover but a high strikeout rate. He's young and if he can improve his swing decisions (no real contact issues) then he could be massive. Also a cannon of an arm

I think the Dodgers would still be interested in Adames, and I wonder whether Pepiot and someone with big upside like Nick Frasso could even out the trade

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

If Adames was traded, and you got pitching back, i wonder would the Brewers go for a high ceiling guy like Carson Williams, and  Kyle Manzardo  from the Rays for Burnes. Both positions they have covered for a while with Franco and Diaz

Manzardo is fairly similar profile wise to Vinne Pasquantino, and may be ready for big leagues. Tellez could be added in to even the trade up a little

Williams is high power, a minor league gold glover but a high strikeout rate. He's young and if he can improve his swing decisions (no real contact issues) then he could be massive. Also a cannon of an arm

I think the Dodgers would still be interested in Adames, and I wonder whether Pepiot and someone with big upside like Nick Frasso could even out the trade

Manzardo & Williams plus sounds good to me. 6-7 years of a better hitting Willie Adames at SS and great bat 1B. Just don’t think Tampa would be a realistic trade partner for Burnes. 

I don’t think they would get into a bidding war for Burnes, at least not like the Padres, Rangers, Jays, Mets or Phillies might.

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Manzardo & Williams plus sounds good to me. 6-7 years of a better hitting Willie Adames at SS and great bat 1B. Just don’t think Tampa would be a realistic trade partner for Burnes. 

I don’t think they would get into a bidding war for Burnes, at least not like the Padres, Rangers, Jays, Mets or Phillies might.

I would agree, and they'd be much more amenable should they lose another starter, but the temptation of a playoff rotation of McLanaghan, Burnes and Glasnow would be immense, and also they'll likely get prime Burnes too given their history with pitchers

Also Manzardo is blocked by Diaz, and Williams by Franco so that may improve their tradability somewhat

Could also throw in Rowdy and let Manzardo come to the big leagues this season

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I would agree, and they'd be much more amenable should they lose another starter, but the temptation of a playoff rotation of McLanaghan, Burnes and Glasnow would be immense, and also they'll likely get prime Burnes too given their history with pitchers

Also Manzardo is blocked by Diaz, and Williams by Franco so that may improve their tradability somewhat

And next year adding Baz. Maybe Sternburg takes on the salary in an attempt to win the WS and get the new stadium built. The Rays sure have a nice system from which to choose from.

[jay87shot]

With every passing loss trading Burnes seems more likely. Thankfully the central stinks but our offense is so bad that Burnes doesn't help much if we win 85 games and back into the playoffs. Woody could go to if he get 3 or 4 nice starts and Wily as well. At this point if we could get good upper minors or recent mlb players.

Burnes to Texas makes the most sense to me.

Woodruff or Burnes to Tampa, yanks, Rays, Jays, or O's could all work but Arizona would be an interesting dark horse candidate. The Dbacks have some intersecting talent and pitching needs.

[nate82]

How about Peralta to the Rays?  Something like Manzardo, comp pick and Colmenarez. 

Then trade Burnes and Urias to the Orioles for: Mayo (1B), Ortiz (SS), Povich (LHP) and Beavers (OF).

Then Adames to the Dodgers for: Frasso (RHP), Nastrini (RHP) and Vivas (2B/3B)

 

That would give the Brewers a shot in the arm with some youth on the team.  Povich, Frasso and Nastrini give the Brewers enough shots at a possible pitcher becoming good.

2024 will suck pitching wise with only Woodruff coming back but the Brewers will have a bunch of positional players ready to play on the MLB team in 2024 and some on the same trajectory for making it to the MLB team when Chourio would be. 

 

Another possible trade Williams to the Marlins for Meyer (RHP), Eder (LHP) and comp pick.  If the Brewers get the Rays and Marlins comp pick that gives the Brewers the 31st and 35th pick in the draft.  The Brewers would then have 18, 31, 33 and 35 which should allow them to get the players they want in this years draft.  If anyone falls or if there is a signing concern the Brewers would have more than enough to go over and not even worry about it. 

[Jake McKibbin]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

How about Peralta to the Rays?  Something like Manzardo, comp pick and Colmenarez. 

Then trade Burnes and Urias to the Orioles for: Mayo (1B), Ortiz (SS), Povich (LHP) and Beavers (OF).

Then Adames to the Dodgers for: Frasso (RHP), Nastrini (RHP) and Vivas (2B/3B)

 

That would give the Brewers a shot in the arm with some youth on the team.  Povich, Frasso and Nastrini give the Brewers enough shots at a possible pitcher becoming good.

2024 will suck pitching wise with only Woodruff coming back but the Brewers will have a bunch of positional players ready to play on the MLB team in 2024 and some on the same trajectory for making it to the MLB team when Chourio would be. 

 

Another possible trade Williams to the Marlins for Meyer (RHP), Eder (LHP) and comp pick.  If the Brewers get the Rays and Marlins comp pick that gives the Brewers the 31st and 35th pick in the draft.  The Brewers would then have 18, 31, 33 and 35 which should allow them to get the players they want in this years draft.  If anyone falls or if there is a signing concern the Brewers would have more than enough to go over and not even worry about it. 

The Rays aren't  trading Peralta for Manzardo alone I dont think, never mind for extra parts too, especially not the way his secondary stuff has been this season for a real quality hitter who is MLB ready

I think Frasso from Dodgers would be intriguing

And yeah Williams is another intriguing one, a lot of potential value there