Did Arnold make a mistake not trading the Big 3 away?

[MVP2110]

There was a lot of consternation among the fan base for the Brewers not extending any of the Big 3(Burnes, Woodruff, Adames) this past offseason. But it appears the real question is if Arnold should have traded the Big 3 away. All 3 of their values have seemingly taken significant hits since the offseason due to poor performance(Burnes & Adames) or injury(Woodruff). On top of that I'm not sure the Brewers would be in a significantly different place in the standings had we traded all 3 away. It certainly would have been very unpopular among the fan base had they done it, but atleast to me, it seems Arnold should have dealt all 3 

[Fear The Chorizo]

look at the division - it would have been a terrible decision to trade any of these guys away in a division that is still so easily winnable, let alone all 3.  I'd also add that I think it would have been a terrible decision to extend any of these guys at the market rates being discussed this past offseason, too. 

[Harold Hutchison]

It was the right call. Heck, in some ways... it may even be the right call to roll with them in 2024, if they can get a brief 1-2 year extension. I bet Woodruff would go for that on a "prove it" basis.

[MVP2110]

43 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

look at the division - it would have been a terrible decision to trade any of these guys away in a division that is still so easily winnable, let alone all 3.  I'd also add that I think it would have been a terrible decision to extend any of these guys at the market rates being discussed this past offseason, too. 

Why would it have been terrible? Adames, Burnes, & Woodruff have each seemingly hurt their trade value this year. The Brewers sit at 34-34 right now. Whats their record if none of those 3 are on the roster? Those 3 have combined for 2.5 wins so far this season. So if we replace them with guys who provide 0 WAR and round 2.5 up to 3 were looking at 31 wins instead. Maybe Adames or Burnes perform better than they have or maybe Woodruff comes back healthy but it seems like they could have gotten a good haul for each of the 3 this past offseason and not been that much worse off for it 

[Thurston Fluff]

Barring a major injury that would put next season into jeopardy Burnes and Woodruff will still bring plenty back in a trade. Adames still has time to turn it around. I don't think he was as highly thought of outside the Brewers organization as was inside it so I doubt he's lost a ton of trade value as it is. He had power and defense but always struggled getting on base.

[CheezWizHed]

Kind of a no-win scenario.  If you trade them away and sit at 31-37, people will say "what if we hadn't traded them in such a bad division".  Even if all three did exactly the same somewhere else, the expectation would be, "Well, they would've been better here".  

 

[brewmann04]

they wont trade because our division stinks unless a team blows us away

[jay87shot]

I don't think Burnes has hurt his trade value, he isn't striking out as many and his era is a half run higher. However he still should have more trade value than Luis Castillo did last year. There is no doubt Willy should have been traded but that's easy to say with hindsight. Turang has shown the signs of being a future everyday SS but has a long way to go. Woody really only needs a couple healthy starts and most of his trade value will be back before the deadline.

I think not trading high on Eric Lauer is really the mistake of the offseason. Any fan who watched him knew he isn't a 3.5 era pitcher like he had been foe 2 years. My guess is that we received some nice offers for him and now he is on pace not to be tendered a contract next year.

[jay87shot]

Just now, brewmann04 said:

they wont trade because our division stinks unless a team blows us away

Agreed, maybe we could trade away Willy or Urias and add somewhere else but even if this team plays average we should have an easy path to the playoffs.

[MVP2110]

2 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I don't think Burnes has hurt his trade value, he isn't striking out as many and his era is a half run higher. However he still should have more trade value than Luis Castillo did last year. There is no doubt Willy should have been traded but that's easy to say with hindsight. Turang has shown the signs of being a future everyday SS but has a long way to go. Woody really only needs a couple healthy starts and most of his trade value will be back before the deadline.

I think not trading high on Eric Lauer is really the mistake of the offseason. Any fan who watched him knew he isn't a 3.5 era pitcher like he had been foe 2 years. My guess is that we received some nice offers for him and now he is on pace not to be tendered a contract next year.

Losing trade value isn't just performance based but time of control as well. Next offseason Burnes, Woodruff, & Adames would likely have significantly less value from the pure fact that the team trading for them will only get 1 year as opposed to 2. That's even before factoring in the performance or injury issues by each of 3. 

[nate82]

Just now, jay87shot said:

I think not trading high on Eric Lauer is really the mistake of the offseason. Any fan who watched him knew he isn't a 3.5 era pitcher like he had been foe 2 years. My guess is that we received some nice offers for him and now he is on pace not to be tendered a contract next year.

If fans could see he isn't a 3.5 ERA pitcher wouldn't other teams also see this?  So how can you sell high if fans can see something but somehow magically other teams are not able to see this?  I doubt the Brewers received anything of significant for Lauer in the off season.  It was probably more a long the lines of what they already had. 

[jay87shot]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If fans could see he isn't a 3.5 ERA pitcher wouldn't other teams also see this?  So how can you sell high if fans can see something but somehow magically other teams are not able to see this?  I doubt the Brewers received anything of significant for Lauer in the off season.  It was probably more a long the lines of what they already had. 

Lauer's advanced stats were always worse than he base stats. I am sure a bunch of teams would have given much. However free agents like Tiajuan Walker and Jameson Taillion were pretty close to Lauer stat wise the past 2 years and got huge contracts so my guess is that there were a couple of solid deals out there if we wanted (maybe no top 100 prospects but 2 or 3 really solid pieces).

[MrTPlush]

I always said the Brewers should have just blown it up if they were going to be lukewarm on competing…that feeling certainly would have been the better option. Though aggressively trying to compete probably would have been worse than what we are doing right now.

With all the Adames extension talk I thought they were way better off just trading him over an extension. Thankfully they didn’t extend him…but yikes, sure wish they would have sold high on him. 

I don’t know…I didn’t hate what they did in the off-season…but I always had a feeling it was going to end up with a middling .500ish record at best.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, clancyphile said:

It was the right call. Heck, in some ways... it may even be the right call to roll with them in 2024, if they can get a brief 1-2 year extension. I bet Woodruff would go for that on a "prove it" basis.

He already has a guaranteed contract next year to prove it (he could miss the rest of the year and we are still offering arby…unless his elbow explodes)

[edfunderburk]

Yes he did

[Ulice Payne]

Holding on to them was the right call.  This was the best chance to get back to the playoffs.  A full baseball season is too valuable to not take the best shot.  

 

Will it work out?  We shall see.  But even if it doesn't, taking one more run with Burnes & Woodruff is worth the difference in trade value when they get moved this winter,

[LouisEly]

Remember, all the Brewers have to do is get healthy and into the playoffs.  Then they shorten the rotation to (a healthy) Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and short-start/piggy-back Miley/Houser.  Add a bullpen arm and they can compete with anybody.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Remember, all the Brewers have to do is get healthy and into the playoffs.  Then they shorten the rotation to (a healthy) Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and short-start/piggy-back Miley/Houser.  Add a bullpen arm and they can compete with anybody.

Yeah, the goal isn't to win 100 games; it's to get into the playoffs and hope that all the pitchers are rolling. Is it likely? I dunno, but that's the scenario you're hoping for.

[wallus]

These kind of threads always pop up during losing streaks.

[adambr2]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:10 PM, clancyphile said:

It was the right call. Heck, in some ways... it may even be the right call to roll with them in 2024, if they can get a brief 1-2 year extension. I bet Woodruff would go for that on a "prove it" basis.

No he most certainly would not. 

[bulldogboy0733]

Yes

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:32 PM, MVP2110 said:

Why would it have been terrible? Adames, Burnes, & Woodruff have each seemingly hurt their trade value this year. The Brewers sit at 34-34 right now. Whats their record if none of those 3 are on the roster? Those 3 have combined for 2.5 wins so far this season. So if we replace them with guys who provide 0 WAR and round 2.5 up to 3 were looking at 31 wins instead. Maybe Adames or Burnes perform better than they have or maybe Woodruff comes back healthy but it seems like they could have gotten a good haul for each of the 3 this past offseason and not been that much worse off for it 

This is an epic strawman point of view, unless you want to use 20/20 hindsight vision...kind of doubt many Brewers fans would have been ok with Arnold stating this past offseason after trading all 3 of these guys that "Adames is going to struggle to hit 0.200 this year and doesn't know how to sit in a dugout, Woodruff will miss a few months due to shoulder problems, and Burnes will have an uneven season and hurt his trade value in 2023....because the Cardinals are going to be unexpectedly awful we'll be able to slog through the season without these players at the top of the division"

I'm also pretty sure WAR isn't a hard and fast stat that should be used to predict what the Brewers' record would or wouldn't be had they opted to deal away their top two starting pitchers and their shortstop who hits in the middle of their order before the season ever started.

 

 

 

[Jopal78]

Maybe if the Brewers held on to all these guys until they walked it would be a mistake but that won’t happen.

 

The talking heads mention Lucas Giolito being maybe the best arm available at the deadline. If the Brewers fade over the next 5 weeks or so and sell, there won’t be a GM out there who prefers Giolito to Burnes, and probably not many that prefer Giolito over Woodruff (injury concerns). 
 

Frankly if ownership and Matt Arnold decided to sell this July they have an incredible list of veterans fro  which they could move certain pieces and restock the depth of their minor leagues:

Woodruff

Burnes,

Miley

Teheran

Houser

Lauer

Adames

Tellez

Anderson

Caratini

Milner 

Bush

 

 

[trwi7]

On 6/16/2023 at 6:57 PM, LouisEly said:

Remember, all the Brewers have to do is get healthy and into the playoffs.  Then they shorten the rotation to (a healthy) Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and short-start/piggy-back Miley/Houser.  Add a bullpen arm and they can compete with anybody.

Are we hoping this group can hold a playoff (an actual playoff, not Brewers) offense scoreless for 9 innings?

[endaround]

I don't get the question. The Brewers were projected for 85-88 wins.  Why would you tear that team apart?  I feel like there is a contingent here that thinks that all players should be traded for prospects unless the Brewers have a 95 win team made up of players with less than 4 years of service time,