Is Quero Our Top Prospect?

[Outlander]

They are burning an option year weather he stays all season in AAA next year or only a portion. He still would then have two more options which really wouldn't be a concern if he is an All Star type catcher.

[Brewcrew82]

I know this isn't the "official poll", but given how we still have a couple days until play resumes, I thought it would be fun to post my tentative top 20 after the draft. Quero #3 after Chourio and Mis. Mostly because of the premium tools of those guys. Nothing wrong with #3 in this system.

1) Chourio

2) Misiorowski 

3) Quero 

4) Frelick

5) Lara

6) Black

7) Gasser

8) Uribe

9) Wilken

10) Pratt

11) Carlos F. Rodriguez

12) EBJ

13) Yophery Rodriguez

14) Guilarte

15) Bitonti

16) Knoth

17) Jarvis

18) Boeve

19) Moore

20) Henderson

This farm system is in such great shape. Best it's been since we were briefly ranked #1 in 2016. And we haven't had to go through a teardown like we did then. 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

They are burning an option year weather he stays all season in AAA next year or only a portion. He still would then have two more options which really wouldn't be a concern if he is an All Star type catcher.

Yeah with a prospect like Quero, I don't think burning an option is a concern at all - they'll protect him from Rule V when they need to and delaying the start of his MLB service time a season or even two would make alot of sense so the years of team control keep him in MIlwaukee into his late 20's, which are the likely prime years for a catcher.

[Playing Catch]

I think we need to be able to recognize that (A), Quero is a really, really good prospect, and that (B), prospects this good fail EVERY SEASON in MLB. Penciling him in as a future all-star, or even every day starter is probably expecting too much at this point. His high floor has him on perhaps a Manny Pina-type floor, not an all-star.

He's super exciting, and it's worth debating if he's the Brewers' best prospect, but let's reestablish the failure rate of top prospects before we crown him as the next Adley Rutschman.

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I know this isn't the "official poll", but given how we still have a couple days until play resumes, I thought it would be fun to post my tentative top 20 after the draft. Quero #3 after Chourio and Mis. Mostly because of the premium tools of those guys. Nothing wrong with #3 in this system.

1) Chourio

2) Misiorowski 

3) Quero 

4) Frelick

5) Lara

6) Black

7) Gasser

8) Uribe

9) Wilken

10) Pratt

11) Carlos F. Rodriguez

12) EBJ

13) Yophery Rodriguez

14) Guilarte

15) Bitonti

16) Knoth

17) Jarvis

18) Boeve

19) Moore

20) Henderson

This farm system is in such great shape. Best it's been since we were briefly ranked #1 in 2016. And we haven't had to go through a teardown like we did then. 

 

It is going to be interesting to see everyone's list. There are a lot of permutations with top players. My preliminary one for instance has Knoth as the top of the draft picks and Adams in the top 10.

Also, on Quero's floor, I'm sticking with Maldonado. And given the length of his career, that is a pretty good floor.

[SomewhereInTime]

On 7/10/2023 at 5:13 AM, RWeeksFan23 said:

He might be. I know it isn't Chourio. Chourio's been overrated for a while now.

Pretty much, just like how a couple years ago it was Hedbert Perez as the next big prospect and now he can't hit in A ball.  20 years of DSL and 0 big league Brewer hitters developed.  A complete waste of resources.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Pretty much, just like how a couple years ago it was Hedbert Perez as the next big prospect and now he can't hit in A ball.  20 years of DSL and 0 big league Brewer hitters developed.  A complete waste of resources.

There's zero similarity between Perez and Chourio. Chourio tore up A ball and forced his way up to AA at 18. Perez has never hit and can't make it out of A ball.

Chourio is 19 in AA. Literally the only one in all of baseball, and still is on pace for a 20/40 season. 

[sveumrules]

21 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Pretty much, just like how a couple years ago it was Hedbert Perez as the next big prospect and now he can't hit in A ball.  20 years of DSL and 0 big league Brewer hitters developed.  A complete waste of resources.

Except Chourio did hit in A ball, and A+, and is currently holding his own at age 19 in AA. There is a huge difference between some fans on a message board getting excited about Hedbert based on camp reports during a baseball starved pandemic and multiple outlets ranking Chourio among the best prospects in the game based on his production and their evaluations’ of his tools.

Both Escobar and Arcia have graduated as Brewers over the last 20 years. Two is no great shakes but it’s also not zero.

Either way, they drastically upped their efforts and investment level on the international side after Stearns and company got here so I don’t see how lack of results from a prior regime should be held against the new one.

[BallFour]

Well if Chourio is overrated it is only in the sense that he probably is no longer regarded in the sure fire phenom tier like those who dominated AA such as Trout, Vlad Jr., Acuna, Heyward, and Albies did at the age of 19. Comparing him to Hedbert is laughable at best. He still he has a damn good profile to dream on and just look at what Quero did between his 19 year old and 20 year old season. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Chourio could be pressing at 19 being the #1-#3 prospect ranking. This all exploded over last year about this time no? AA is where the competition is really at among pitching prospects...who I believe he's taken yard at least 2 times this season. He's holding his ground maybe he'll take off after this break. Obviously expectations are very high. 

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Chourio could be pressing at 19 being the #1-#3 prospect ranking. This all exploded over last year about this time no? AA is where the competition is really at among pitching prospects...who I believe he's taken yard at least 2 times this season. He's holding his ground maybe he'll take off after this break. Obviously expectations are very high. 

He took Eury Perez deep, who currently has a 2.36 ERA in the Majors (despite a 0.1 IP, six earned run effort against the Braves to blow up his stats)

[brewcrewdue80]

14 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think we need to be able to recognize that (A), Quero is a really, really good prospect, and that (B), prospects this good fail EVERY SEASON in MLB. Penciling him in as a future all-star, or even every day starter is probably expecting too much at this point. His high floor has him on perhaps a Manny Pina-type floor, not an all-star.

He's super exciting, and it's worth debating if he's the Brewers' best prospect, but let's reestablish the failure rate of top prospects before we crown him as the next Adley Rutschman.

We're talking about a Catcher for this prospect. Plus in the field. Plus with his arm. He's sticking behind the plate and not being moved around to find a defensive home. Sal Perez, Maldonado, Molina, and Pina are all examples what his future looks like. Long careers.  Sal Perez, now there's the better comp for what it appears Quero is headed for. Perez was AA at age 21 and played 79 games there 12 at AAA and called up to the Royals.  Quero is doing better thus far through 57games at a younger age.  Perez is now an 8 time AS, albeit fan voting helped a few of those.

Point is defensive catchers are always finding spots on a ML team regardless how poor the hitting(Maldonado) Quero sets his floor there with a bat potential making him an AS easy. Like Perez.

[Playing Catch]

5 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

We're talking about a Catcher for this prospect. Plus in the field. Plus with his arm. He's sticking behind the plate and not being moved around to find a defensive home. Sal Perez, Maldonado, Molina, and Pina are all examples what his future looks like. Long careers.  Sal Perez, now there's the better comp for what it appears Quero is headed for. Perez was AA at age 21 and played 79 games there 12 at AAA and called up to the Royals.  Quero is doing better thus far through 57games at a younger age.  Perez is now an 8 time AS, albeit fan voting helped a few of those.

Point is defensive catchers are always finding spots on a ML team regardless how poor the hitting(Maldonado) Quero sets his floor there with a bat potential making him an AS easy. Like Perez.

After reconsidering his career, I really like the Maldonado-floor comp. Maldonado's star was probably boosted by his Gold Glove and playing on those Astros teams. I guess I had thought that MM's career was a little stronger than it was. I agree that Quero is most likely going to play in the Show for a long time.

I like the Perez-comp as a ceiling for Quero, especially considering their comparable ages/development stages.

I guess more than anything, I wanted to remind folks that most catching prospects just become JAGs.

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think we need to be able to recognize that (A), Quero is a really, really good prospect, and that (B), prospects this good fail EVERY SEASON in MLB. Penciling him in as a future all-star, or even every day starter is probably expecting too much at this point. His high floor has him on perhaps a Manny Pina-type floor, not an all-star.

He's super exciting, and it's worth debating if he's the Brewers' best prospect, but let's reestablish the failure rate of top prospects before we crown him as the next Adley Rutschman.

Yeah, no prospect has a "floor" of an All-Star. Especially at catcher.

We had a guy not that long ago who was pretty young for AA...he was putting up a .360/.415/.560/.975 line. He had a huge arm. Not as polished defensively, but had big time tools.

We ended up with an AS Catcher from the team he was on, but it wasn't him. 

Angel Salome asked to move to the OF due to anxiety IIRC and Lucroy who everyone slept on became an AS.

 

That doesn't mean anything for Quero other than...we're jumping the gun quite a bit saying the WORST case is that he's an All Star in the future.

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Pretty much, just like how a couple years ago it was Hedbert Perez as the next big prospect and now he can't hit in A ball.  20 years of DSL and 0 big league Brewer hitters developed.  A complete waste of resources.

LOL...no, absolutely nothing like Perez. 

First of all, I don't know which is more ridiculous, calling Perez a "waste of resources," or comparing him to Chourio. 

And he was never "the next big prospect." He was ONE player people talked about MAYBE becoming the next big prospect...and then he didn't while Chourio did. One actually produced and the other is STILL just a 20 year old and still young for his league, but he hasn't produced.

 

The Brewers have only recently built facilities and become players in the IFA market. What, 2017 after penalties for Lara? 

But I'm really not sure how Chourio and Perez get mentioned in the same sentence when talking about return on investment.

 

De La Cruz is 22 months older than Chourio. He was hitting .269/.305/.477/.782 and 5 HRs at the same age as Chourio...but he was in Low A.

Go and take a look at the top prospects and see how do jumping to AA? Chourio is maintaining his prospect status and more than holding his own. I'm genuinely curious what would make some people happy if they look at Chourio and Quero and say "complete waste of resources."

 

[SomewhereInTime]

On 7/13/2023 at 5:38 PM, BrewerFan said:

LOL...no, absolutely nothing like Perez. 

First of all, I don't know which is more ridiculous, calling Perez a "waste of resources," or comparing him to Chourio. 

And he was never "the next big prospect." He was ONE player people talked about MAYBE becoming the next big prospect...and then he didn't while Chourio did. One actually produced and the other is STILL just a 20 year old and still young for his league, but he hasn't produced.

 

The Brewers have only recently built facilities and become players in the IFA market. What, 2017 after penalties for Lara? 

But I'm really not sure how Chourio and Perez get mentioned in the same sentence when talking about return on investment.

 

De La Cruz is 22 months older than Chourio. He was hitting .269/.305/.477/.782 and 5 HRs at the same age as Chourio...but he was in Low A.

Go and take a look at the top prospects and see how do jumping to AA? Chourio is maintaining his prospect status and more than holding his own. I'm genuinely curious what would make some people happy if they look at Chourio and Quero and say "complete waste of resources."

 

They are a cash strapped organization.  They would 100% be better off spending more at the big league level than continuing to waste millions signing these 16 year olds.  Near 100% bust rate and 5+ years of development needed for each prospect.  This entire system with the DSL is complete nonsense.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

52 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

They are a cash strapped organization.  They would 100% be better off spending more at the big league level than continuing to waste millions signing these 16 year olds.  Near 100% bust rate and 5+ years of development needed for each prospect.  This entire system with the DSL is complete nonsense.

So Chourio, Quero, Uribe, ... all a waste of resources.  Got it. Thanks

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SomewhereInTime said:

They are a cash strapped organization.  They would 100% be better off spending more at the big league level than continuing to waste millions signing these 16 year olds.  Near 100% bust rate and 5+ years of development needed for each prospect.  This entire system with the DSL is complete nonsense.

This is just comically short sighted and literally the WORST thing the Brewers could do. For the price of a 2 WAR OFer each year, the Brewers are starting to churn out elite Latin American prospects, one after another...and you think we'd be better off with what? Another reliever instead?

HALF of the Brewers top 30 prospects are Latin American. The Brewers system would be the worst in Baseball without investing in Latin America.

I really don't know how you can look around Baseball and seriously say with a straight face that spending ~10M a year at the MLB level is worth more than that.

Chourio HIMSELF is worth ~100M in Surplus Value HIMSELF. 

 

The "cash strapped" teams are the ones who need to sign players like Abner Uribe for 85K more than anything else. The Rays...Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz....hell, 7 of their everyday players are LA signings. And they've traded away the likes of Willy Adames for a starting pitcher. The MAIN reason they've been competitive is because of their LA facilities and scouting.

This is an example of not understanding the changes the Brewers have made and grossly overstating the cost relative to MLB FAs. Look at the team we JUST played. Of the top prospects?

 

They 100% would NOT be better without half of their top prospects, that's...ludicrous and not worth really debating...so I'm not sure why I did, but I'm not going to any further....beyond to say, did you see Chourio and Quero, the two young phenoms in AA?

Chourio with a MISSLE to the deepest part of the park and a double tonight and Quero 2-4. Fits in BEAUTIFULLY with Black in that lineup and in Milwaukee moving forward!

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, SomewhereInTime said:

They are a cash strapped organization.  They would 100% be better off spending more at the big league level than continuing to waste millions signing these 16 year olds.  Near 100% bust rate and 5+ years of development needed for each prospect.  This entire system with the DSL is complete nonsense.

Part of the reason they haven't had more success in Latin America previously is that for years the Brewers did this. For better or worse, a large part of scouting and signing in Latin America is about connections, and while the Brewers did still sign players from Latin America during that time period (Wily Peralta being one example I believe), their lack of a presence hurt them. They had to build it back up to get to the point where now, it is beginning to bear fruit. Now is the exact time that you don't want to get rid of it, especially with Manfred's slash and burn attitude toward the stateside minor league system.

Are there flaws in the system that basically determines bonuses by skill and projectability as high school freshmen? Of course. <rant>It doesn't help matters perception-wise that some of the scouting service lists seem to serve more as bonus predicters. Medina was the Brewers top-rated signing his year but post-signing suddenly the write-ups on Perez and Quero were much more effusive. Same with Severino and Barrios vs. Lara.</rant> But in order to compete ESPECIALLY as a small market team, you have to get good at it. And the Brewers are finally starting to trend in that direction.

[SF70]

On 7/12/2023 at 5:11 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Yeah with a prospect like Quero, I don't think burning an option is a concern at all - they'll protect him from Rule V when they need to and delaying the start of his MLB service time a season or even two would make alot of sense so the years of team control keep him in MIlwaukee into his late 20's, which are the likely prime years for a catcher.

Or—

Sign him to a 8+ year extension so we have an all-star type catcher for the next decade plus with Contreras as well.

[SF70]

Quero is trending to become the #1 catching prospect in baseball. Chourio is trending to become the best OF prospect in baseball. Misiorowski is trending to become the second-best pitching prospect in baseball (Skeens is on another planet).

Imo, with the 4 recent positionals added from the ‘23 draft, this farm has the strongest crop of positional prospect talent in the game.

It’s top heavy with elite talent (Quero-Chourio-Frelick-Black) but the real depth of positionals lies in Carolina-Arizona and the Dominican Republic.

 

[SomewhereInTime]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

This is just comically short sighted and literally the WORST thing the Brewers could do. For the price of a 2 WAR OFer each year, the Brewers are starting to churn out elite Latin American prospects, one after another...and you think we'd be better off with what? Another reliever instead?

HALF of the Brewers top 30 prospects are Latin American. The Brewers system would be the worst in Baseball without investing in Latin America.

I really don't know how you can look around Baseball and seriously say with a straight face that spending ~10M a year at the MLB level is worth more than that.

Chourio HIMSELF is worth ~100M in Surplus Value HIMSELF. 

 

The "cash strapped" teams are the ones who need to sign players like Abner Uribe for 85K more than anything else. The Rays...Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz....hell, 7 of their everyday players are LA signings. And they've traded away the likes of Willy Adames for a starting pitcher. The MAIN reason they've been competitive is because of their LA facilities and scouting.

This is an example of not understanding the changes the Brewers have made and grossly overstating the cost relative to MLB FAs. Look at the team we JUST played. Of the top prospects?

 

They 100% would NOT be better without half of their top prospects, that's...ludicrous and not worth really debating...so I'm not sure why I did, but I'm not going to any further....beyond to say, did you see Chourio and Quero, the two young phenoms in AA?

Chourio with a MISSLE to the deepest part of the park and a double tonight and Quero 2-4. Fits in BEAUTIFULLY with Black in that lineup and in Milwaukee moving forward!

 

I would absolutely take the extra relief pitcher or 2 WAR outfielder each year.  Our top prospect list has been littered with DSL guys for years, they come stateside, they don't hit the ball.  Hopefully they at least get some value out of Chourio and Quero by trading them at the deadline this year while both are still considered prospects.

[brooks_quichenick]

5 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

I would absolutely take the extra relief pitcher or 2 WAR outfielder each year.  Our top prospect list has been littered with DSL guys for years, they come stateside, they don't hit the ball.  Hopefully they at least get some value out of Chourio and Quero by trading them at the deadline this year while both are still considered prospects.

Just a completely laughable take and you keep doubling down. Can you please cite some examples of the DSL guys that have been littering our top prospect list for years? Chourio and Quero at the top of our list now are the result of actually investing in the LA prospect market, which as has already been mentioned to you many times. The Brewers prior to Stearns did not do that anywhere close to the extent that they have in the last handful of years.

 

[Brewcrew82]

8 hours ago, SF70 said:

Quero is trending to become the #1 catching prospect in baseball. Chourio is trending to become the best OF prospect in baseball. Misiorowski is trending to become the second-best pitching prospect in baseball (Skeens is on another planet).

Imo, with the 4 recent positionals added from the ‘23 draft, this farm has the strongest crop of positional prospect talent in the game.

It’s top heavy with elite talent (Quero-Chourio-Frelick-Black) but the real depth of positionals lies in Carolina-Arizona and the Dominican Republic.

 

I think that honor still belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. 

Also, I love Quero, but what Ethan Salas is doing at 17 years old in full-season ball is incredible. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Just a completely laughable take and you keep doubling down. Can you please cite some examples of the DSL guys that have been littering our top prospect list for years? Chourio and Quero at the top of our list now are the result of actually investing in the LA prospect market, which as has already been mentioned to you many times. The Brewers prior to Stearns did not do that anywhere close to the extent that they have in the last handful of years.

 

Well...on top of that, THEY'RE ALSO HITTING STATESIDE! As are several other players like Lara, Gullarte....

It's also worth noting when Stearns took over, they were handicapped by the Lara signing. They could only spend 300K in '16 and '17 I believe. Maybe it was '15 and '16, doesn't matter. Point is, they were not able to because they went for ONE big name...which is not a great strategy.