Hader Trade

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

I'm just glad this topic is finally being discussed.  

Still better than another “where’s Hiura” thread.

[homer]

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

While Contreras is a good hitter, a Top 2 catcher is an exaggeration. It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season including de La Cruz stealing 3 consecutive bases (which is why Atlanta was okay dealing him). There’s a half dozen catchers who are better all around.

He's basically league-average throwing guys out compared to all the guys that get regular innings. And Fangraphs has him with the best defensive WAR in all of baseball. Does that make him top 2? I dunno. But being top 6 or 7 is still pretty darn good.

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, homer said:

He's basically league-average throwing guys out compared to all the guys that get regular innings. And Fangraphs has him with the best defensive WAR in all of baseball. Does that make him top 2? I dunno. But being top 6 or 7 is still pretty darn good.

I meant top 5 and accidentally posted top 2 when I initially made the post. He's #4 in fWAR for catchers behind Murphy, Heim, and Smith. And ahead of Rutschman, Raleigh, Realmuto, etc. 

[edfunderburk]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

If only the calculus were that easy. With Hader gone, everyone in the bullpen moved a step back, Williams from 8th inning to closer etc. 

Williams ended the year with a 1.93 era, which hides the fact his era was 2.85, and blew 20% of his save chances after becoming closer. Taylor Rogers pitched to a 5.48 and took 3 losses, Matt Bush blew 2 saves and took 3 losses, and the Brewers missed the post season by 3 games.

Would they have made the playoffs with Hader, who knows? But the point is, the bullpen, post Hader trade, was a major reason the Brewers missed the postseason, players who didn’t succeed in their new roles, players who performed poorly overall in replacing Hader.

 

All good points 

but … it was a GREAT trade for Milwaukee 💪

[edfunderburk]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

what the organization turned Hader into is nothing short of astounding

Ding Ding Ding …

Ladies & Gentlemen - we have a winner 🎉👏🙌💪

[edfunderburk]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers missed last year, not solely because of Hader, but changing the composition of the bullpen did play a role. To suggest otherwise and congratulate them for getting good players in return for a 5 time all star pitcher, is kind of silly.

Silly me 🙃

[edfunderburk]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

the original topic was “we got good players for Hader it was a massive success”

This is 100% true 

[brewcrewdue80]

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I understand the point: the original topic was “we got good players for Hader it was a massive success”.

I guess my point is: when trading a superstar relief pitcher, the expectation is to get good players in return. So meeting expectations doesn’t make it “a massive success” and depending on your perspective and belief that trading Hader caused or contributed to cause them to miss the playoffs it’s probably like most trades more of a push.

This. The original trade getting Ruiz and Gasser plus the other 2 was disappointing. The Hader trade Arnold got bailed out by acquiring Contreras, Payamps, and Yeager all from Ruiz.  Just found a way to get in between 2 teams heading in 2 very opposite directions to part with 2 ML players and 1 prospect for 1 prospect. Maybe I'll change my tune when Ruiz has a career over 15WAR.  Then Oakland and Arnold put the right value towards trading for Ruiz, but Im inclined they sold Hader low. Gasser may start for Milw 1 day, but he's got 0 vibe being anything better than a #4 or 5 SP. If he's a 5 he may actually provide negative value producing like one. See Jason Alexander mixed with Colin Rea. 

Calling the Hader trade a win when trading him should have felt like a win from the start and it didn't?  Trading Ruiz is the massive win feel we should have felt from trading Hader. Ruiz was a why with Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick all nearing AAA and future callup. Chourio had established he was climbing prospect ranks.  The team didn't need Ruiz' future. 

Trade values update has Ruiz at 13.4. Payamps at 12.2. Contreras at 56.8! Yeager .9.  Gasser 4.4. Btw Hader at 3 only right now.    Kinda shows Ruiz should have gotten Payamps and Yeager on his own. We're just living off an accidental Contreras inclusion lost in the conversation between Braves and A's 

 

[gregmag]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I understand the point: the original topic was “we got good players for Hader it was a massive success”.

I guess my point is: when trading a superstar relief pitcher, the expectation is to get good players in return. So meeting expectations doesn’t make it “a massive success” and depending on your perspective and belief that trading Hader caused or contributed to cause them to miss the playoffs it’s probably like most trades more of a push.

This is a perfect “heads I win, tails you lose” argument. 
 

Tails you lose: When a team trades a superstar reliever, “the expectation is to get good players in return.”  Therefore, it is literally impossible for any return from such a trade to be worthy of praise, in the sense of exceeding (my definition of) “the expectation.”

 

Heads I win: Although I have failed to persuade anyone in this discussion that trading Hader was a proximate cause of missing the postseason (and several people have offered evidence for the opposite view), I cling to my opinion that it was; accordingly, the possibility that it was not must be ignored. 

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, Underachiever said:

I’m sure Williams pouted after the trade. “Oh no, my path to becoming a closer has just opened up!” Do you think he wanted to be the 8th inning guy his whole career? He pitched great the last two months of 2022.

 

He was the most vocal about it...or one of them. 

Things worked out great. I think if you brought him back...they'd probably work out great again. I wouldn't be worried about how it'd work...for the next couple months.

I also don't think anyone would be talking about this if Hader wasn't a Brewer....and I can't even picture a scenario in which the Pads come back to the Brewers and accept a realistic trade package they'd be willing to give up. It'd be great to slide Payamps into that 7th inning role, Peguero into the 6th or just use them whenever, but Gasser has good stuff. I think it'd play up in relief. 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, gregmag said:

This is a perfect “heads I win, tails you lose” argument. 
 

Tails you lose: When a team trades a superstar reliever, “the expectation is to get good players in return.”  Therefore, it is literally impossible for any return from such a trade to be worthy of praise, in the sense of exceeding (my definition of) “the expectation.”

 

Heads I win: Although I have failed to persuade anyone in this discussion that trading Hader was a proximate cause of missing the postseason (and several people have offered evidence for the opposite view), I cling to my opinion that it was; accordingly, the possibility that it was not must be ignored. 

The big problem with the Hader trade was the...just ridiculous expectations. 

And then trading him while the team was in first place...I mean, management has said it wasn't a good decision or one they didn't realize the impact it would have.

You can point out that we had the same record after as we'd had since May(whatever the exact timeline was) but we traded away a core part of the team. So I don't think there was really any return that was going to make people happy. 

The standard was kinda the Chapman trade. An overpay for a great reliever because the Cubs were desperate.  A year out we seem to have beaten that after flipping Ruiz. If you're not happy with that because you're supposed to get good players...alright. I don't think you were ever going to be.

[Playing Catch]

Nothing groundbreaking here in a Rosenthal piece for the Athletic. Paywalled. But clearly topical...

Rosenthal: A year after the Josh Hader trade.

[StearnsFTW]

I was fine with the trade then and I'm more than fine with it now. 

[phnxcrew]

Can we trade for him today only to trade him on the 31st so everyone can pout and argue about this even more?  I’m still not over bob wickman.  We should’ve gotten way more than Richie season!!!

[CheezWizHed]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:49 PM, wiguy94 said:

1. Contreras has above average pop time to 2B. A lot of the SB against him he hasn't even had a chance on and his framing still grades as one of the best in the MLB. He's 7th among MLB catchers in Fielding Run Value, 2nd in DRS, 2nd in Framing, and 2nd in Fangraphs catcher defense. 

2. He currently has a 119 wRC+ and is 4th in the MLB in catcher fWAR despite being 9th in catcher PA.

3. Factoring in all these things, he's easily been a top 5 catcher in the MLB this season.

He is actually slightly below average in pop times and catcher independant metrics for base stealing defense:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&sortColumn=pop_time&sortDirection=asc

[wiguy94]

24 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

He is actually slightly below average in pop times and catcher independant metrics for base stealing defense:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing?game_type=Regular&n=q&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&split=no&team=&type=Cat&with_team_only=1&sortColumn=pop_time&sortDirection=asc

He's 57th percentile in Pop Time to 2B. The leaderboards just include qualified catchers.

[wiguy94]

Didn’t really know where to post this so just doing it here. 
 

The Padres use of Hader is so confusing to me. They asked Robert Sanchez to go 5 outs today between 7th and 8th and he ran into issues in the 8th.

Bases loaded in a 4-4 game with a LHH up and they don’t go to Hader for a 5 out save. And yeah I get Hader doesn’t pitch more than 1 inning but he’s pitched 2 times for 1.2 innings in the month of August. They are barely hanging on in the wild card race and Hader can’t go 5 outs for his 3rd time pitching in 13 days?

Stuff like this really makes me not miss Hader all that much. 

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Didn’t really know where to post this so just doing it here. 
 

The Padres use of Hader is so confusing to me. They asked Robert Sanchez to go 5 outs today between 7th and 8th and he ran into issues in the 8th.

Bases loaded in a 4-4 game with a LHH up and they don’t go to Hader for a 5 out save. And yeah I get Hader doesn’t pitch more than 1 inning but he’s pitched 2 times for 1.2 innings in the month of August. They are barely hanging on in the wild card race and Hader can’t go 5 outs for his 3rd time pitching in 13 days?

Stuff like this really makes me not miss Hader all that much. 

He wants his $100 million paycheck this winter first. 

[Never Outhustled]

On 7/20/2023 at 11:08 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

This. The original trade getting Ruiz and Gasser plus the other 2 was disappointing. The Hader trade Arnold got bailed out by acquiring Contreras, Payamps, and Yeager all from Ruiz.  Just found a way to get in between 2 teams heading in 2 very opposite directions to part with 2 ML players and 1 prospect for 1 prospect. Maybe I'll change my tune when Ruiz has a career over 15WAR.  Then Oakland and Arnold put the right value towards trading for Ruiz, but Im inclined they sold Hader low. Gasser may start for Milw 1 day, but he's got 0 vibe being anything better than a #4 or 5 SP. If he's a 5 he may actually provide negative value producing like one. See Jason Alexander mixed with Colin Rea. 

Calling the Hader trade a win when trading him should have felt like a win from the start and it didn't?  Trading Ruiz is the massive win feel we should have felt from trading Hader. Ruiz was a why with Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick all nearing AAA and future callup. Chourio had established he was climbing prospect ranks.  The team didn't need Ruiz' future. 

Trade values update has Ruiz at 13.4. Payamps at 12.2. Contreras at 56.8! Yeager .9.  Gasser 4.4. Btw Hader at 3 only right now.    Kinda shows Ruiz should have gotten Payamps and Yeager on his own. We're just living off an accidental Contreras inclusion lost in the conversation between Braves and A's 

 

Part of the reason the Brewers acquired Ruiz was because they knew certain teams, including the As, used a statistical model that heavily valued Riuz.

 

I think the deal is best described as terrible short term and terrific long term.

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He wants his $100 million paycheck this winter first. 

Now, that we're talking about Hader, it makes me wonder which teams are going to be willing to fork over $100 million for a reliever this winter. I wonder if it will be the Cubs. That would set up nicely for them with the talent they have coming up through the minors. They could probably still resign Bellinger, too, if they wanted. Of course, then you have the obvious candidates like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, etc. Looks unlikely he'll be going home to the Orioles or DBacks. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Didn’t really know where to post this so just doing it here. 
 

The Padres use of Hader is so confusing to me. They asked Robert Sanchez to go 5 outs today between 7th and 8th and he ran into issues in the 8th.

Bases loaded in a 4-4 game with a LHH up and they don’t go to Hader for a 5 out save. And yeah I get Hader doesn’t pitch more than 1 inning but he’s pitched 2 times for 1.2 innings in the month of August. They are barely hanging on in the wild card race and Hader can’t go 5 outs for his 3rd time pitching in 13 days?

Stuff like this really makes me not miss Hader all that much. 

The Padres are 3 games better than the Pirates and Nationals, two teams who weren’t even trying to compete this year. 
 

The Padres are a train wreck and everybody running the team could get fired after the season, which is also your answer on usage.

[sveumrules]

The Padres are perfectly positioned for the ALL IN offseason of ALL TIME.

Hader, record setting reliever contract...check.
Soto, record setting pre-FA extension...check.

and, the coup de grace, OHTANI.

That outlay would only set Seidler back like one point a couple two tree billion.

Cohen would be so rattled.

[wildcat2237]

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Padres are 3 games better than the Pirates and Nationals, two teams who weren’t even trying to compete this year. 
 

The Padres are a train wreck and everybody running the team could get fired after the season, which is also your answer on usage.

They really really really need to can the entire front office this winter. What a trainwreck. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 minutes ago, wildcat2237 said:

They really really really need to can the entire front office this winter. What a trainwreck. 

try as soon as they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this fall.  No way would I want that front office trying to fix the mess they've created at the start of the offseason.

[igor67]

The Padres and Angels are both secretly collaborating on a Sequel to Brewster's Millions, Cohen found out and came late to the party as well. A holographic Richard Pryor will be appearing to pitch to Ohtani...