Christian Yelich

[BrewerFan]

Just to be VERY clear, I am loving what Yelly has done for us this year. His bounce back has made him the backbone of our offense and he seems to just continue ascending.

That said, at the start of the season, people were talking about if we traded Burnes, could we include Yelich into that deal. That was mostly shot down by talking about all his negative value.

 

That said, what would we feel if a team(it'd likely have to be a west coast team given his no-trade) came along and offered a couple of lower level prospects with some upside, but no top 100 prospects...who here would be willing to trade him? I know it's ALWAYS harder to trade a guy when he's coming off a monster season, and if he proceeds like he did in '18(and he's not far off the pace) then that'd change the equation. But in the last 4 years, he's struggled relative to his contract pretty badly in 3 of them. He was a servicable leadoff hitter last year, but not the player we were hoping when he signed that.

The BIG thing that would make it far more palpable is what we have coming on the way.

We have our future OF pretty much set with Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell, then Carlos Rodriguez and a host of other young OFers in the system that are ticketed for Milwaukee by late '24 or '25. That money saved from Yelich could go to a Woodruff extension if they wanted to, or even a big contract extension right out of the gate for guys like Chourio, Quero and maybe even Frelick, Wiemer and Turang(to varying degrees). 

In a poor FA class for OFers, Yelich would probably be the best available. He has 5/130 remaining on his deal(including the deferred money)+ a mutual option for 6.5M. He'll be 32 years old and coming off a ~5+ WAR season. 

The only OFer who may be on his level if Kevin Kiermaier who derives far more of his value as a CFer. 

 

I know it seems like a ridiculous question at this point in time given what he's done for the Brewers, but we have to be proactive, right? Even if we get another big season or tree from Yelich, you're still looking at what will almost certainly be a couple really bad years at this point(as is always the expectations when you sign long term deals). 

 

Again, I know this is the worst possible time to ask this question...and it's NOT an anti-Yelich question, I love having the guy. It's just a pragmatic one for me. Our money would be better served going to the young franchise changing OFer named Chourio, and I don't want to hear the countdown starting as soon as he plays for the Brewers. Our window is open for X number of years, or the "what can we get for Chourio," in a few years as we've done with Burnes the last few years. 

[Jake McKibbin]

He's our boyyy

Realistically it makes sense financially, but I really like his production and if he even continues something between his June/July numbers (July has a ridiculous OPS for his with 6 home runs too) I'd be happy enough, even to get that next season. He's worked hard and is a real solid piece there. If the back gives way it's trouble perhaps, but I wouldn't trade him I don't think. Also 26m a year isn't really that much compared to what some players are getting 

[igor67]

I would listen, but this seems more like something that would have to happen in the offseason. Right now it's hard to envision how this isn't waving the flag for the current season since he is easily our top bat in the line-up. Certainly by the end of the contract Yelich is probably a part time player, but with 5 years to go his bounce back alters the albatross potential. I do think there is value in having that face player.

[Jopal78]

No team is going to take on that amount of cash for that long AND give value back to Milwaukee for Yelich so there would be no real reason to trade him.

Granted, even if they simply wanted out from underneath Yelich’s contract to have the financial flexibility to deal with the next generation; the risk that none of the young outfielders referenced grow into major leaguers who deserve that kind of commitment or are even interested in forgoing their ultimate free agency is real. 

 

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

I would listen, but this seems more like something that would have to happen in the offseason. Right now it's hard to envision how this isn't waving the flag for the current season since he is easily our top bat in the line-up. Certainly by the end of the contract Yelich is probably a part time player, but with 5 years to go his bounce back alters the albatross potential. I do think there is value in having that face player.

My interpretation of the question was that he'd be traded this offseason... With that interpretation in mind, I think they should absolutely trade away his contract. Nearly all of the big extensions are offered with the understanding that that last couple of years are sunk costs. With those savings (along with the savings available with a young roster over the next few years), the team could make a run at signing someone like Woodruff AND a good FA bat (a Cain-type FA).

And yes, I too, love Yeli. I'd miss him. He'll probably end up as an all-time favorite player of mine.

[Brewcrew82]

Yelich’s full no trade clause makes this about a 1% likelihood. Both player and organization committed to each other for the length of the contract when they signed the dotted line.

[nate82]

Even with taking Yelich's NTC out it would be very difficult to find a trading partner to take on this contract.  I think the best option would probably be a swap of Yelich for Scherzer or someone similar.  You would have to take on a equally bad contract to move Yelich even with his improved play this year assuming the Brewers are not paying for part of Yelich's contract.

Even if the Brewers take on part of Yelich's contract the return would be less than what Yelich provides to the team and unless the Brewers are only paying 5% or less of Yelich's remaining contract the savings wouldn't be worth it. 

[markedman5]

Yelich’s contract isn’t bad for the production he is giving this season. 
 

I’m glad he’s here for the long term……he loved Milwaukee enough to sign what at the time was viewed as a very team friendly deal………clearly he hasn’t produced at the mvp levels of his 2 best seasons……but he’s one of the best 10-20 players in baseball this season by WAR…….people need to stop trying to “ move him” to get out from under a contract that is perfectly reasonable for this level of production.

[owbc]

I doubt he has any value in the trade market, especially with the NTC, so this would be a pure salary dump. Keep him. 

 

[umphrey]

I've definitely had this thought. It would be tempting to try to trade him. What would they use the money on though? A Woodruff extension? Couple of $10m players? I'd probably prefer to let it ride with Yelich if those are the options. If it came down to Yelich vs Adames for the next 6 years that would be a tougher question. 

[jay87shot]

I vote no hesitantly. Obviously there is always a trade that would be to good to pass up. However we shouldn't be cash strapped for 3/4 years unless we really want to sign all 3 of the big 3.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, igor67 said:

I would listen, but this seems more like something that would have to happen in the offseason. Right now it's hard to envision how this isn't waving the flag for the current season since he is easily our top bat in the line-up. Certainly by the end of the contract Yelich is probably a part time player, but with 5 years to go his bounce back alters the albatross potential. I do think there is value in having that face player.

It's not this trade deadline, it'd be after this year. That's why I said going into 2024.

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, umphrey said:

I've definitely had this thought. It would be tempting to try to trade him. What would they use the money on though? A Woodruff extension? Couple of $10m players? I'd probably prefer to let it ride with Yelich if those are the options. If it came down to Yelich vs Adames for the next 6 years that would be a tougher question. 

A Jackson Chourio contract. I was thinking about Acuna Jr and realized he'd be in the same position as Corbin Burnes right now if the Braves hadn't extended him...and I think that 130M would be better used paying Chourio from ages ~21-30 than Yelich from 32-38.

[endaround]

2 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

A Jackson Chourio contract. I was thinking about Acuna Jr and realized he'd be in the same position as Corbin Burnes right now if the Braves hadn't extended him...and I think that 130M would be better used paying Chourio from ages ~21-30 than Yelich from 32-38.

There is no problem paying both of them at the same time.  Chourio likely won't even be a full time player until at least 2026.  Yelich is gone after 2028. You start the big dollars in the Chourio contract after 2028. 

[BrewerFan]

6 minutes ago, endaround said:

There is no problem paying both of them at the same time.  Chourio likely won't even be a full time player until at least 2026.  Yelich is gone after 2028. You start the big dollars in the Chourio contract after 2028. 

2026?!?

I think it's far more likely Chourio is in the OF playing everyday June of 2024. He's already in AA and raking. 2026 would be 2 more years in the minors(and you're saying that'd be the soonest by saying at LEAST) I think that is incredibly unlikely and would mean something has gone very wrong in his progress.  Especially given how we'll he's hitting in AA now.

 

[umphrey]

I don’t think Yelich and Chourio are financially related. If Chourio is extended early he’s cheap. If late they can backload and avoid Yelich. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, owbc said:

I doubt he has any value in the trade market, especially with the NTC, so this would be a pure salary dump. Keep him. 

 

This is effectively the proposition. A salary dump for the most part. Get back a couple of young arms that have some upside, but not top 100 prospects. Just young, talented arms...probably rookie ball guys. Just lottery tickets.

The fact that the exit velocity never really matched the down years, I get why fans want to keep him. Again, I'm just looking at where this team will be in 2-3 years and where his value was just this past off-season. 

So I understand why people don't want to move a guy who not only committed to this team at below market rates and who wants to be here. Still a bit surprised at the poll, but...I suppose that's the point.

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

This is effectively the proposition. A salary dump for the most part. Get back a couple of young arms that have some upside, but not top 100 prospects. Just young, talented arms...probably rookie ball guys. Just lottery tickets.

You won't be able to just salary dump Yelich.  You will have to take on a portion of Yelich's contract.  Somewhere around 10-15% of his contract depending on the team you are trading him to.  Even large market teams are going to require the Brewers to eat some of that contract especially if they are over the cap or will be going over the cap.

[owbc]

8 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You won't be able to just salary dump Yelich.  You will have to take on a portion of Yelich's contract.  Somewhere around 10-15% of his contract depending on the team you are trading him to.  Even large market teams are going to require the Brewers to eat some of that contract especially if they are over the cap or will be going over the cap.

I just wonder what problem we're trying to solve here. We have left field solved right now for the next 5 years with Yelich around. If Yelich was a FA right now he would sign for at least 5/135 if not more. And we don't have a replacement in the pipeline if we got rid of him. 

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

You won't be able to just salary dump Yelich.  You will have to take on a portion of Yelich's contract.  Somewhere around 10-15% of his contract depending on the team you are trading him to.  Even large market teams are going to require the Brewers to eat some of that contract especially if they are over the cap or will be going over the cap.

I don't know if that's true.

Just to make this point again, but IF he were a FA this off-season...what do you think he'd go for? I think 5/110 would be about the minimum given the lack of impact FAs. So MAYBE you have to eat the deferred money, but I don't think so. I think 5/130 is pretty close to what he'd get. 

I guess it's all speculative anyway and I don't think there's any real chance we trade him. I don't actually expect GMs to think like this. He'll be a Brewer until he retires. And he will almost certainly at LEAST be the player he was last year and that's not killing you at 22M a year(plus the deferred money).

 

What a difference 4 months makes in fan perception though.

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

I just wonder what problem we're trying to solve here. We have left field solved right now for the next 5 years with Yelich around. If Yelich was a FA right now he would sign for at least 5/135 if not more. And we don't have a replacement in the pipeline if we got rid of him. 

We don't have a replacement for Yelich in the pipeline?

Yeah, we most certainly do. 

Frelick, Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell...Black could also be an OFer and Carlos Rodriguez is also in AA and while not a power hitter, certainly another competent OFer.

And those are just players likely to be on the roster within the next year.

 

And it's not so much a "problem," but allocation of resources. I'd rather see 130M going to a long term extension for Chourio to early in his career ala Wander Franco(rather than Julio Rodriguez...I don't think that is feasible).

It's also about selling high. In the last 4 years, Yelich has had ONE really good year and it's this one. Again, to start the season, I saw people talking about how he had -100M in Surplus value and if you included him in a Burnes trade, you'd basically just be trading Burnes to unload that salary. 

So we have all 3 OF positions covered and we're more like two deep with very young players and one player who may be the best prospect the Brewers have EVER had in their system. 

[Jake McKibbin]

If Yelich has a full no trade clause (likely to be able to actually settle in Milwaukee, he did take an under value deal given his performances at the time) then I guess it's all kind of moot

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Gonna need a detailed drawing on how Chourio won't be a MLB regular until 2026. That's umm, wild

[Redd Vencher]

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

We don't have a replacement for Yelich in the pipeline?

Yeah, we most certainly do. 

Frelick, Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell...Black could also be an OFer and Carlos Rodriguez is also in AA and while not a power hitter, certainly another competent OFer.

And those are just players likely to be on the roster within the next year.

 

And it's not so much a "problem," but allocation of resources. I'd rather see 130M going to a long term extension for Chourio to early in his career ala Wander Franco(rather than Julio Rodriguez...I don't think that is feasible).

It's also about selling high. In the last 4 years, Yelich has had ONE really good year and it's this one. Again, to start the season, I saw people talking about how he had -100M in Surplus value and if you included him in a Burnes trade, you'd basically just be trading Burnes to unload that salary. 

So we have all 3 OF positions covered and we're more like two deep with very young players and one player who may be the best prospect the Brewers have EVER had in their system. 

Yelich's deal has zero impact on giving Chourio a long term exgension. He'd be off the books before the FA years that would be the most expensive part of the extension ever kicked in.

[BrewerFan]

48 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Yelich's deal has zero impact on giving Chourio a long term exgension. He'd be off the books before the FA years that would be the most expensive part of the extension ever kicked in.

That's...just not true. It's likely to cost a significant amount to get him to sign.

Julio Rodriguez in his 12/209M extension got 15M in a signing bonus, 4M this year, 10 next year and then 18M per each year of what would be his arbitration. That's likely a big part of the reason he agreed to sign. Because the money wasn't all backloaded.

So I don't see how you can say the money we'll be paying Yelich through...what, 2042, has "zero impact" on Chourio. 

You're using the typical service time salaries and...that's just not likely how you're going to be able to sign Chourio.

 

There's also the fact that...as Chourio is going to get expensive, Yelich will be expensive and in his late 30s. So THAT is also going to impact a Chourio contract.

And that's not even discussing possible extensions for others who it may be a good idea to dangle a little signing bonus to entire them to sign like Quero.

The Brewers have a finite amount of money, so OBVIOUSLY if they save some from one area, it can help them reallocate that money to another area. 

 

Sure, maybe the Brewers can do both. Saying it has "zero impact?" That's just not true.

Finally...isn't the entire financial ideology of the Brewers to sell high? Before this year,  I saw arguments that there was no way the Brewers could get out from under his deal, -160M in surplus by one poster going back and looking at it.

Anyway, I made my case. If people don't want to, I respect that. Not like it actually matters as it's just a opinion poll. But of course it impacts how else we allocate our limited resources.