Burnes Trade Megathread

[CheezWizHed]

16 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Yes. You don't have to have the best team to win the World Series and they don't even necessarily need to be better than this year to go further in the playoffs next year. The Arizona Diamondbacks just made their way into the Series with the 18th best offense (97 wRC+ vs. the Brewers' 92), 19th best pitching (4.36 xFIP vs. the Brewers' 4.13) , and 5th best defense (4.5 UZR/150 vs. the Brewers' 7.7).

That is true.  And also why I was happy to go for it this year. But typically those are less likely to happen. 

Just with the big 3 being in the last year of arby (and now Woody out for a year), just makes sense to me to reboot.  Unless you can get another 2-3 trades like Contreras last year... 😂

[brewerfan82]

I'm really on the fence with how to handle this offseason. I do usually side with getting a haul for your stars before they hit FA (or get injured... what a blow with Woodruff), but I feel like we're in a unique spot where our farm system is looking pretty healthy already and we had a wave of prospects hit the majors last year and another wave coming soon that could help this team be contenders as early as next year already. The hardest thing for us to find moving forward is a front of the rotation headed by a guy like Burnes, so it's tempting to take another swing while we still have the ace.

That said, I'll be excited to see them go into the season with Burnes still atop the rotation, but also won't be disappointed if they get a real haul for Burnes either.

[brewers888]

Unless we are just receiving nothing but lowball offers get rid of Burnes. This team is not winning it all next year and we can surely get a better return than just a draft pick so make the move.

[torts]

Could we get lux+ others from the dodgers?  

[nate82]

37 minutes ago, torts said:

Could we get lux+ others from the dodgers?  

Not sure why everyone keeps on bringing up Lux.  Is it because he is from WI?  I don’t get the obsession over him.  He is not that great of a player.  If you are trading Burnes for Lux plus probably should just give them Peralta while we are at it.

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, torts said:

Could we get lux+ others from the dodgers?  

Dodgers won 100 games last year with Lux hurt all season, I’d imagine they would trade him for Burnes.

Question is, how much interest would the Brewers have in Lux? Doesn’t have much MLB run at SS (502 inn. | +1 DRS | -4 OAA), but has been plus at 2B (1,346 inn. | +16 DRS | +8 OAA).

His “breakout” in 2022 was 471 PAs of 275/346/399 (114 wRC+) that shook out to 3.0 WAR.

Still only 26 years old heading into 2024, but those 41 HR he hit during his 2018-19 prospect ascent are getting farther away in the rear view mirror.

Has three years of control with a projected Arby’s around $1M for year one.

I’d prefer a theoretical Burnes headliner  to be a pitcher with more team control, though I’d assume in this scenario Adames is also dealt (could target pitching there) which would leave Brice and Gavin to battle it out for SS/2B.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Dodgers won 100 games last year with Lux hurt all season, I’d imagine they would trade him for Burnes.

Question is, how much interest would the Brewers have in Lux? Doesn’t have much MLB run at SS (502 inn. | +1 DRS | -4 OAA), but has been plus at 2B (1,346 inn. | +16 DRS | +8 OAA).

His “breakout” in 2022 was 471 PAs of 275/346/399 (114 wRC+) that shook out to 3.0 WAR.

Still only 26 years old heading into 2024, but those 41 HR he hit during his 2018-19 prospect ascent are getting farther away in the rear view mirror.

Has three years of control with a projected Arby’s around $1M for year one.

I’d prefer a theoretical Burnes headliner  to be a pitcher with more team control, though I’d assume in this scenario Adames is also dealt (could target pitching there) which would leave Brice and Gavin to battle it out for SS/2B.

Yeah. Not much interest for Lux. Would want Sheehan or Pepiot. 

[brewers888]

Burnes to the Dodgers just makes too much sense not to happen. 

[Austin Tatious]

I would definitely be interested in Lux but as part of a package with young pitching with upside (high spin rates).   

I have touted our system as long as anyone before I felt it was recognized properly.   And as much as I like the likes of Mis, Gasser and Rodriguez, I’d like to see more high upside arm talent added to the system.  We are deeper in position talent.  

I expect us to focus on pitching harder in the next draft and hopefully in LA (although we’ve been stronger with position players there, e.g., Chourio, Quero, Baez, Lara et al.).

Either way the talent influx has been great.  Mitchell, Frelick, Uribe and Turang already.  Now layer that with Black, Chourio and Gasser next year.   Mis, Rodriguez and Wilken by 2025.  We will see about others like Eric Brown and Wiemer and how they fit in.  Either way, that’s very good influx of talent, energy, fresh legs, and upside.   It will need to coalesce and get acclimated but it sure beats the alternative.  With the next acquisitions, would love to see more emphasis on high spin rate electric arms that can start to balance out the influx of talent.  Hard not to be optimistic.  Stay good and retool without collapsing.  

[brewmann04]

Yes go for the arms 

[BallFour]

I have no problem trying to go for quantity over quality if we are targeting pitching prospects in a Burnes package. With the way pitchers get hurt and our track record of developing pitchers with all different types of backgrounds I feel more comfortable with that route than the alternative.

[jay87shot]

I wouldnt mind Lux but as a 2nd piece. It would be nice to get 1 pitcher Sheehan/Pepiot/Stone/Frasso (I doubt Miller would be in play) and 1 IF Vargas/Busch/Lux. I would be ok adding a reliever or OF in a bigger deal, with a couple othe lower prospects. The Dodgers are going to  add 2 high end starters and have lots of option at P and IF.

Burnes and Weimer for Pepiot, Vargas, C Hunter Feduccia, and P Alex Vesia

We could get 4 contributors in that situation and the Dodgers get OF help to go with Burnes. I still think Vargas is worth the extra to acquire. I don't have much preference in pitcher, I like Pepiot the most but injuries could make on of the others a better chose.

[nate82]

I still think it will be the Padres who will eventually pay for Burnes.  I am not sold on the Dodgers actually paying what the Brewers will want in return for Burnes.  If it is the Dodgers just be prepared to be disappointed as I don't believe the Dodgers will give up any of their top prospects in a trade for Burnes. 

[nate82]

One thing I am not seeing discussed is the FA market which will have a big impact on Burnes value.  I don't think the Brewers are going to get the offers that they will think is fair for Burnes.  There are just a lot of quality FA pitchers available this off season.  Burnes is also 3-years now removed from his CY Young season and he hasn't replicated or come close to that season since.  I don't believe Burnes is viewed as an ace any more and more along the lines of a #1 or #2 type pitcher. 

If you think Burnes is going to get an ace pitcher type of return you are going to be very disappointed when you hear the names that will get thrown around for Burnes. 

Ultimately it will have to be someone who overpays maybe the Padres do this but I don't see any other team out there overpaying for Burnes and I definitely don't see the Dodgers overpaying for Burnes.  I think someone like Busch will be the headliner in a Dodgers trade and then you are looking at Kopp, Wrobleski or Heubeck being the second piece and then someone like McLain, Casparius or Biddison being the third piece in a trade with the Dodgers. 

I just don't see the Dodgers giving up any of their close to ready pitching for Burnes and at best you are looking at Busch plus for Burnes if you are looking at the Dodgers.  You would probably have to include Devin Williams to get one of their better prospects but why do that when you could get a better return from someone else for Devin alone. 

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, nate82 said:

One thing I am not seeing discussed is the FA market which will have a big impact on Burnes value.  I don't think the Brewers are going to get the offers that they will think is fair for Burnes.  There are just a lot of quality FA pitchers available this off season.  Burnes is also 3-years now removed from his CY Young season and he hasn't replicated or come close to that season since.  I don't believe Burnes is viewed as an ace any more and more along the lines of a #1 or #2 type pitcher. 

If you think Burnes is going to get an ace pitcher type of return you are going to be very disappointed when you hear the names that will get thrown around for Burnes. 

Ultimately it will have to be someone who overpays maybe the Padres do this but I don't see any other team out there overpaying for Burnes and I definitely don't see the Dodgers overpaying for Burnes.  I think someone like Busch will be the headliner in a Dodgers trade and then you are looking at Kopp, Wrobleski or Heubeck being the second piece and then someone like McLain, Casparius or Biddison being the third piece in a trade with the Dodgers. 

I just don't see the Dodgers giving up any of their close to ready pitching for Burnes and at best you are looking at Busch plus for Burnes if you are looking at the Dodgers.  You would probably have to include Devin Williams to get one of their better prospects but why do that when you could get a better return from someone else for Devin alone. 

Yep. I'm perfectly content keeping Burnes and going after another division title if the best we're going to get is Busch from the Dodgers.

You can always wait until the deadline too when FA market isn't a consideration. 

[jonescm128]

I'm surprised I haven't seen the Orioles listed more as possible trade partners. A really young team with great offensive pieces without a dominant starting pitcher. They certainly have the salary cap space to offer an extension with all the young guys they have. They also have the best farm system in all of baseball so could make a really strong offer. 

[holy rollers]

For the longest time I was very pro a Burnes trade this off-season.  However, with the expected savings coming from having a bunch of young cheap bats, you can carry that giant salary easier for the next three years - with a financial pinch or trade in the final two years of the deal where Burnes will still only be in his mid-30s.

Would 6 years at $44/mil per be enough to keep Burnes?

I think if you do this, trade Adames, give Woodruff a two-year deal and play the youngsters you set yourself up this year to potentially contend or at the very least see which of the youngsters are keepers. If they are keepers you set set yourself up for a potentially great year next year or more bites at the apple with Woodruff trades and a Burnes sell off in four years.

If we do trade, the Dodgers and Orioles make the most sense it seems. 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, holy rollers said:

For the longest time I was very pro a Burnes trade this off-season.  However, with the expected savings coming from having a bunch of young cheap bats, you can carry that giant salary easier for the next three years - with a financial pinch or trade in the final two years of the deal where Burnes will still only be in his mid-30s.

Would 6 years at $44/mil per be enough to keep Burnes?

I think if you do this, trade Adames, give Woodruff a two-year deal and play the youngsters you set yourself up this year to potentially contend or at the very least see which of the youngsters are keepers. If they are keepers you set set yourself up for a potentially great year next year or more bites at the apple with Woodruff trades and a Burnes sell off in four years.

If we do trade, the Dodgers and Orioles make the most sense it seems. 

 

 

You want the Brewers to give Burnes 6 years at 44M per year?

~260 for 6 years of a pitcher...for the Brewers...of Milwaukee? The Milwaukee in Wisconsin? 

 

Yeah, I think that'd do it. I think we'd be crazy at this point to give Burnes 44M a year over 6 years. I'd MUCH rather give Chourio half that over 10 years and then have some financial flexibility when you have the core of the #2/3 system in Baseball coming up and getting to arbitration. 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/5/2023 at 2:08 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Yep. I'm perfectly content keeping Burnes and going after another division title if the best we're going to get is Busch from the Dodgers.

You can always wait until the deadline too when FA market isn't a consideration. 

Sure. The idea that Burnes isn't viewed as an ace anymore doesn't line-up IMO. He was 7th last year, won a Cy Young, 6th the year before.

This year he wasn't QUITE as good, he did lead the league in WHIP, but he's a 29-year-old ace and the names that have been thrown out for him have been pretty impressive.

I don't think the best we'll get is Busch, but IF that's the case, sure. Keep him. 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

Sure. The idea that Burnes isn't viewed as an ace anymore doesn't line-up IMO. He was 7th last year, won a Cy Young, 6th the year before.

This year he wasn't QUITE as good, he did lead the league in WHIP, but he's a 29-year-old ace and the names that have been thrown out for him have been pretty impressive.

I don't think the best we'll get is Busch, but IF that's the case, sure. Keep him. 

Depends on where one draws the line of ace-hood.

There are 112 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last two seasons. Burnes ranks...

395 IP (7th) | 75 ERA- (13th) | 82 FIP- (24th) | 79 xFIP- (13th) | 125 K%+ (14th) | 87 BB9+ (63rd) | 88 HR9+ (40th) | 10.1 rWAR (5th) | 8.0 fWAR (12th)

Compare that to 2021-22, where there were 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP and Burnes ranked...

369 IP (6th) | 66 ERA- (8th) | 60 FIP- (2nd) | 64 xFIP- (1st) | 143 K%+ (3rd) | 69 BB%+ (23rd) | 65 HR9+ (11th) | 11.6 rWAR (3rd) | 12.0 fWAR (1st)

Looking at that I'd say he has gone from being an ace over 2021-22 to just a standard #1 starter from 2022-23.

[BrewerFan]

Just now, sveumrules said:

Depends on where one draws the line of ace-hood.

There are 112 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last two seasons. Burnes ranks...

395 IP (7th) | 75 ERA- (13th) | 82 FIP- (24th) | 79 xFIP- (13th) | 125 K%+ (14th) | 87 BB9+ (63rd) | 88 HR9+ (40th) | 10.1 rWAR (5th) | 8.0 fWAR (12th)

Compare that to 2021-22, where there were 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP and Burnes ranked...

369 IP (6th) | 66 ERA- (8th) | 60 FIP- (2nd) | 64 xFIP- (1st) | 143 K%+ (3rd) | 69 BB%+ (23rd) | 65 HR9+ (11th) | 11.6 rWAR (3rd) | 12.0 fWAR (1st)

Looking at that I'd say he has gone from being an ace over 2021-22 to just a standard #1 starter from 2022-23.

I was using Cy Young voting and what the perception of Burnes is...and I think he's still considered an ace. 

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I was using Cy Young voting and what the perception of Burnes is...and I think he's still considered an ace. 

That is a poor definition of an ace if you are going by Cy Young votes.

He looks to be more of a #1 or #2 type pitcher.  Aces are rare and should be the top 5 starting pitchers in the league.  Burnes isn’t a top 5 anymore he sits just outside the top 5 and is now more of a #1 pitcher which is still good just not elite.

[BrewerFan]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

That is a poor definition of an ace if you are going by Cy Young votes.

He looks to be more of a #1 or #2 type pitcher.  Aces are rare and should be the top 5 starting pitchers in the league.  Burnes isn’t a top 5 anymore he sits just outside the top 5 and is now more of a #1 pitcher which is still good just not elite.

Ok...so you cited the Cy Young award, but using where he finishes in the voting is a..."poor definition?" 

Top 5=ace. So then when he was 6th and 7th, he wasn't an ace. You see how that's just incredibly vague and difficult to quantify?

 

[Matt Breen]

5 hours ago, jonescm128 said:

I'm surprised I haven't seen the Orioles listed more as possible trade partners. A really young team with great offensive pieces without a dominant starting pitcher. They certainly have the salary cap space to offer an extension with all the young guys they have. They also have the best farm system in all of baseball so could make a really strong offer. 

I believe someone suggested the Orioles - a deal centered around 3B/1B Coby Mayo was suggested. That would be an interesting starting spot.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok...so you cited the Cy Young award, but using where he finishes in the voting is a..."poor definition?" 

Top 5=ace. So then when he was 6th and 7th, he wasn't an ace. You see how that's just incredibly vague and difficult to quantify?

 

You are the only one who said Cy Young voting.

Top 5 in stats as Sveum has pointed out is what an Ace should be judged on.