Brandon Woodruff has shoulder surgery

[AKCheesehead]

Different injury and somewhat different overall scenario, but the comp coming to mind for me is the end of Sheets' tenure with us.  Then he was out for '09, and got a $10m deal with Oakland for '10.

[rickh150]

Wanting Woodruff back now? No way.
Sad, he’s done a lot for us, but no. No two year deal. He can only take what a 20% cut in pay in 2024, correct? I wouldn’t be comfortable with even a two year, $15 million dollar deal hoping he comes back to pitch in 25.
Two risky for a small market. 

[Axman59]

I can't even remember at this point--did Woodruff engage in substantial extension discussions with the Brewers previously? Do we know if he turned down any extension offers that would have put +$100 million in his pocket?

As it is, the Brewers need to non-tender the guy. It sucks but the Brewers are not the team that can be paying a guy +$10 million for a season to not pitch.

[LouisEly]

18 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Wanting Woodruff back now? No way.
Sad, he’s done a lot for us, but no. No two year deal. He can only take what a 20% cut in pay in 2024, correct? I wouldn’t be comfortable with even a two year, $15 million dollar deal hoping he comes back to pitch in 25.
Two risky for a small market. 

Not the way I understand it.  A contract extension would replace arbitration.  In arbitration, or any instance where a contract is renewed one year at a time, he can only get a max 20% cut.  Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed, so a contract extension, which is guaranteed, replaces arbitration. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Not the way I understand it.  A contract extension would replace arbitration.  In arbitration, or any instance where a contract is renewed one year at a time, he can only get a max 20% cut.  Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed, so a contract extension, which is guaranteed, replaces arbitration. 

Feel uncomfortable giving him any multi year deal….he coulda shoulda signed a below market to stay long term… speculating Brewers would have been interested in that a couple years ago. Cold and harsh, sure. But paying an injured pitcher guaranteed money is a no. Incentive laden? Maybe. But it’s the guy’s shoulder. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Not the way I understand it.  A contract extension would replace arbitration.  In arbitration, or any instance where a contract is renewed one year at a time, he can only get a max 20% cut.  Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed, so a contract extension, which is guaranteed, replaces arbitration. 

And thank you… this makes sense.

[mtsportsfan]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

FWIW, I say hold onto Burnes for now. Trade him at the deadline if the team falls out of contention, but otherwise take the comp pick and let Johnson and co. go to work. He'll be plenty motivated to have a season more in line with 2021 in a contract year. 

I see your logic ! But i really want more for Burnes than a comp pick ! Quite frankly , before Woodys injury  I didn't think we would have either before next year . was hoping by trading both we could get some major league ready players and good prospects ! As it stands now we won't get anything for Woody ! 

[MadThinker88]

16 hours ago, mtsportsfan said:

I see your logic ! But i really want more for Burnes than a comp pick ! Quite frankly , before Woodys injury  I didn't think we would have either before next year . was hoping by trading both we could get some major league ready players and good prospects ! As it stands now we won't get anything for Woody ! 

I realize the idea of a comp pick is not appealing as many fans feel a trade of Burnes would (should) net multiple players, but a couple aspects to consider:

1) any other team acquiring Burnes during the off season (or at the trade deadline) has to be willing to give up multiple players. As fans we might feel that is easily attained but in the end it still takes another club to be willing to do that.  

2) the comp pick also comes with additional bonus pool money (for the 2025 draft).  Not all of that bonus money needs to be spent on that single pick, it can be used on that selection and others depending on how MKE approaches that pick and the draft.  My guess is the comp pick would be between rounds 1 & 2 (since MKE is not a tax paying club & it receives competitive balance selections) and a pick in that range should have a bonus amount around $1M.  That means roughly $1,049,999 to be able to spend on 1 or more selections.  That additional money could impact not only completion of more signings but also impact who MKE actually selects at different points in that draft.

Edited October 14, 2023 by MadThinker88
typo fixed

[True Blue Brew Crew]

What an ugly and unfortunate situation. Of course a 2 year deal immediately springs to mind but it should just as quickly be dismissed. No matter how little you pay Woody to rehab in 2024, the amount you're paying him in 2025 will still be too high. He's not going to just spring back to pitching 200 innings and making 30 starts. And that's before even contemplating if he's going to be as effective as he has been before. If Woodruff is ever going to be a top of rotation starter again, it will be 2026 at the earliest, after a season of building up his arm and pushing an innings limit. If you then explore a 3 year deal, now you're committing 3 years of real dollars to a guy who may never return to top form. And what's to say Woodruff even wants to do a 3 year deal at a figure well below what he was projected for before the injury?

So when you accept that 2024 is completely lost, 2025 is at best a build back year, and 2026 is probably something neither side even wants to discuss, what's the point? It's all risk with next to zero upside.

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, adambr2 said:

You're not DFAing him, you're just not offering him arbitration and making him a FA. Which he is going to be after next year anyway. So the alternative is literally just to pay him to do nothing next year and then become a free agent anyway.  I don't know how that's better given our already limited resources. 

But Woodruff is also in a no-win situation. There’s no guarantee any team is going to give him a major league deal for 2024 (let alone 2025) when he’s not going to pitch.

Both being in a bad spot, I imagine Woodruff will sign a 2 year extension with a club/mutual option for ‘26. They can pay him a small guarantee in ‘24, then the 12 or so million in ‘25 and the mutual/club option can be at market rate salary for ‘26 with a substantial buyout; so if Woodruff is healthy and all the way back both parties can benefit, and if he’s not the Brewers still did him right and were  able to spread the money out over multiple seasons.

[Axman59]

51 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

There’s no guarantee any team is going to give him a major league deal for 2024 (let alone 2025) when he’s not going to pitch.

 

The Dodgers will unless the medical reports are heinous. The Dodgers have way more cash to roll the dice than the Brewers do and they do it all the time with injured pitchers with a high upside. In fact they did it with the Brewers own Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson.

[homer]

One super slim silver lining is that they figured this out now as opposed to 5 days into spring training. At least the front office has some time to develop a plan for the off-season.

[Austin Tatious]

I’m a huge Woody fan as we all are.  I have all the empathy for him both with his career but also financially.  But I can’t see giving him anything beyond prove it money in ‘25.  Coming off a missed year and major surgery, he’s not looking at market value in ‘25. It’s sad to say but with age creeping up and a major injury he’s losing the biggest leverage he had to get a huge payday.   I’d be generous but far under market price for a pitcher of his stature.  I’d then want a third year option. 

We don’t know the back room conversations but I’d say there is almost no chance there wasn’t the topic of an extension broached along the way.  Peralta and Ashby took it.  Woody and Burnes didn’t.  

You can bet on yourself as a player but you’re taking a massive risk too by eschewing guaranteed money over the life of an extension.   Very unfortunate but I would be harping on this big time in the future with other young players if I’m the Brewer FO.  It burned Woody.  I feel for him but he did it eyes wide open.  

[Playing Catch]

I feel bad for Woody. He just really seemed to be the heartbeat of the team the last few years. Seemed like a super-genuine, nice guy. Absolutely the type of player teams want to "build around". He deserved his shot at a big pay-day. I just wish he'd lost a year to Tommy John, rather than face the ominous future of shoulder surgery.

With this said, there's a hypothetical universe where the Brewers traded Woody last offseason for stud prospects, and those prospects... fizzled out. It doesn't have to end up being a really big deal for the team. They never invested financially in Woody beyond his arbitration, and pitchers get hurt all the time. I mean, Woody himself only made 11 starts this season.

I think it's interesting that with this injury, some of the "run-it-back-in-2024" opinions are shifting to "re-set/rebuild in 2024," and those that were looking to do the rebuild are now saying, run-it-back.

[Jopal78]

52 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

The Dodgers will unless the medical reports are heinous. The Dodgers have way more cash to roll the dice than the Brewers do and they do it all the time with injured pitchers with a high upside. In fact they did it with the Brewers own Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson.

Certainly a possibility, but not a given. Also,  the Dodgers gambles on both Nelson and Knebel came up snake eyes.
 

You have to keep Woodruff’s position in perspective. As long as he’s Brewers property he won’t know what other teams would do, and probably has to wait until all the free agent chips fall. Moreover,  if the Brewers have guaranteed money on the table to allow him to rehab and come back, he’d have to have big cojones to turn it down believing he could get better elsewhere .

[jerichoholicninja]

He's getting a 2 year deal from somebody. Unfortunately this is where the financial disparity in baseball really is an advantage for a big market team. The Dodgers have signed plenty of guys in Woody's situation to multi year deals. The Red Sox and Yankees have done it before too. I feel like the Padres did recently as well. The Brewers can't afford to throw money at a gamble like this knowing you'll get next to nothing in 2024 and a total question mark in 2025. 

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

He's getting a 2 year deal from somebody. Unfortunately this is where the financial disparity in baseball really is an advantage for a big market team. The Dodgers have signed plenty of guys in Woody's situation to multi year deals. The Red Sox and Yankees have done it before too. I feel like the Padres did recently as well. The Brewers can't afford to throw money at a gamble like this knowing you'll get next to nothing in 2024 and a total question mark in 2025. 

Granted it was a less money but the Brewers did that last year with Justin Wilson. A lot of it will depend on the money and prognosis going forward. Nothing has to be done immediately. The Brewers can afford to wait. If someone comes in and gives him a deal sooner than we're ready to commit to him nothing's lost.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I mean, in order for anyone to offer Woody a contract, the Brewers have to non-tender him first. That seems...cruel. I get it, it's a business, etc., but it takes some pretty cold thinking to look at the situation and just say, "Bye."

There's going to be a 2-3 year offer from the Brewers. I don't know what that offer will be. But I'd guess something like 2/10 or 2/12. Woody gets 1-2 for 2024. He gets 1 WAR money for 2025. Perhaps there's an option for 2026.

I think that's in the interest of both parties, if I'm being honest. But if Woody thinks he can get more, he should definitely push for a non-tender and see what the market is like.

That's how I'd handle it. Open communication, we want you here, we'll give you what you would've gotten in arb this year for 2025 and a million for the lost year.

If people think 10-12 million for a guy coming off shoulder surgery is too much in 2025, I get it. But you'd basically be betting on Woody as a 1 WAR player. I think that's reasonable. Maybe he's bad and you lose. Whatever. Teams take 10 mil flyers all the time. It's one year. Maybe he's great, and you can get a trade return midseason. Maybe he's great and you QO. Maybe he's just alright, and that's fine too.

[rickh150]

4 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I mean, in order for anyone to offer Woody a contract, the Brewers have to non-tender him first. That seems...cruel. I get it, it's a business, etc., but it takes some pretty cold thinking to look at the situation and just say, "Bye."

There's going to be a 2-3 year offer from the Brewers. I don't know what that offer will be. But I'd guess something like 2/10 or 2/12. Woody gets 1-2 for 2024. He gets 1 WAR money for 2025. Perhaps there's an option for 2026.

I think that's in the interest of both parties, if I'm being honest. But if Woody thinks he can get more, he should definitely push for a non-tender and see what the market is like.

That's how I'd handle it. Open communication, we want you here, we'll give you what you would've gotten in arb this year for 2025 and a million for the lost year.

If people think 10-12 million for a guy coming off shoulder surgery is too much in 2025, I get it. But you'd basically be betting on Woody as a 1 WAR player. I think that's reasonable. Maybe he's bad and you lose. Whatever. Teams take 10 mil flyers all the time. It's one year. Maybe he's great, and you can get a trade return midseason. Maybe he's great and you QO. Maybe he's just alright, and that's fine too.

Those are guaranteed $ you are speaking of… and a blown throwing shoulder. And a multi year plan? And saying casually it’s just 10 mil? Just pass on all of it. A cheaper deal built on Incentive laden language… sure. 
I have no allegiance to Woodruff. Great Brewer, sure. He would jump at the highest dollar and get out of here if he were to be a healthy FA. And like others speculate, the idea of long term Brewer probably floated past him a couple years ago to no avail. 
 

[Axman59]

13 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

You have to keep Woodruff’s position in perspective. As long as he’s Brewers property he won’t know what other teams would do, and probably has to wait until all the free agent chips fall.

Unless his agent is a total moron, he will have a decent idea of what someone like the Dodgers or Padres or Mets would offer him if he was non-tendered by the Brewers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 hours ago, Axman59 said:

Unless his agent is a total moron, he will have a decent idea of what someone like the Dodgers or Padres or Mets would offer him if he was non-tendered by the Brewers.

 

Not saying they won't continue their approach of signing aging or oft injured arms hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, but maybe they'll realize it isn't the greatest model to build pitching staffs seeing that two of them didn't even make the playoffs and the third got instantly oustered because their staff was in shambles due to injuries.

[SeaBass]

It just doesn't make any sense to sink money into a fairytale. Gotta let him go.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

On 10/14/2023 at 10:32 PM, rickh150 said:

Those are guaranteed $ you are speaking of… and a blown throwing shoulder. And a multi year plan? And saying casually it’s just 10 mil? Just pass on all of it. A cheaper deal built on Incentive laden language… sure. 
I have no allegiance to Woodruff. Great Brewer, sure. He would jump at the highest dollar and get out of here if he were to be a healthy FA. And like others speculate, the idea of long term Brewer probably floated past him a couple years ago to no avail. 
 

I understand the reasoning here. And an incentive-laden deal is probably better than guaranteed money at the end of the day.

I guess I just don't fully buy the notion that $10 mil is an amount of money that should matter to the Brewers in this instance. Right now, what does 10 mil get you? A year of Mark Canha? You're also not paying that money out until 2025, meaning you're actually saving it for 2024 since Woody would have gotten at least that much in arb.

Bottom line (for me): for 10 mil guaranteed, under this hypothetical scenario, I get to avoid the players-are-assets-and-nothing-more philosophy that has made baseball so brutally efficient and had some important human consequences over the last two decades. I'll pay that price. It's not going to sink our roster, and I'd rather save my cold financial moves capital for situations where where what I'm being cold about involves performance or fit instead of injury.

[owbc]

2-year makes so much sense for both parties that I can't see it not happening. 

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, owbc said:

2-year makes so much sense for both parties that I can't see it not happening. 

I agree.  I still think something like 2-years $20mm should be good and just pay him the majority of the salary in '25 as a team option with a buyout.  So in 2024 Woodruff would get paid $4-6mm and then in 2025 he would get the remaining or whatever the buyout would be.