Woodruff Open to Staying with Brewers - Podcast Interview

[markedman5]

Woody on the Foul Territory podcast 

has not yet spoken with the Brewers about next season…..said that will happen soon.

paraphrasing 

“The brewers drafted and developed me ….I’ve been so fortunate to be with one organization and one coaching staff for my entire career. I understand how the business works……I’ll make this clear….I fit in so well with this city and this organization…….and my hope is to be  a Brewer for a long time….that’s what I want”

 

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Woody on the Foul Territory podcast 

has not yet spoken with the Brewers about next season…..said that will happen soon.

paraphrasing 

“The brewers drafted and developed me ….I’ve been so fortunate to be with one organization and one coaching staff for my entire career. I understand how the business works……I’ll make this clear….I fit in so well with this city and this organization…….and my hope is to be  a Brewer for a long time….that’s what I want”

 

If he and his agent are willing to be reasonable about it, I have no issues with a 2 for 1 deal, with maybe an option added. 

Julio Urias, for instance, had this surgery in 2017 and went right back to being an ace afterwards until this year. Granted, he was much younger, but Woody's not that old, either. 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Woody on the Foul Territory podcast 

has not yet spoken with the Brewers about next season…..said that will happen soon.

paraphrasing 

“The brewers drafted and developed me ….I’ve been so fortunate to be with one organization and one coaching staff for my entire career. I understand how the business works……I’ll make this clear….I fit in so well with this city and this organization…….and my hope is to be  a Brewer for a long time….that’s what I want”

 

This guy is just so easy to root for and it really makes you want to keep him on the team. 

[MrTPlush]

2 year deal doesn’t excite me a lot. If he wants a deal, he can give us an option for 2026 if he comes back like he was before.

Would a team actually give him a contract this off-season? Or would we be doing Woodruff a massive favor commuting him millions before he ever gets in a mound?

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

2 year deal doesn’t excite me a lot. If he wants a deal, he can give us an option for 2026 if he comes back like he was before.

Would a team actually give him a contract this off-season? Or would we be doing Woodruff a massive favor commuting him millions before he ever gets in a mound?

Im pretty sure a team like the Dodgers would have little problem offering him a contract this offseason. Elite pitchers like him are really hard to come by, and they've done something similar in the past.

As long as Woody and his agent are willing to be reasonable, I have little problem with a potential deal. 

[owbc]

23 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

2 year deal doesn’t excite me a lot. If he wants a deal, he can give us an option for 2026 if he comes back like he was before.

Would a team actually give him a contract this off-season? Or would we be doing Woodruff a massive favor commuting him millions before he ever gets in a mound?

I think he would get 2-year contract offers from other teams, possibly for more money than we're willing to offer. Assuming he wants to continue rehabbing with the same organization, that should give the Brewers a leg up. Nobody is going to offer him a 1-year deal, including us, and he would be crazy to sign for anything beyond 2 years. 

[sveumrules]

Tyler Glasonw signed in August of 2022 for 2 years and 30 million coming off 212 IP of 66 ERA- | 68 FIP- from 2019 to 2022.

Woodruff has 595 IP of 69 ERA- | 72 FIP- since 2019.

If the Brewers don't sign him, someone else almost assuredly will even with the knowledge he is unlikely to pitch in 2024.

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Tyler Glasonw signed in August of 2022 for 2 years and 30 million coming off 212 IP of 66 ERA- | 68 FIP- from 2019 to 2022.

Woodruff has 595 IP of 69 ERA- | 72 FIP- since 2019.

If the Brewers don't sign him, someone else almost assuredly will even with the knowledge he is unlikely to pitch in 2024.

Glasnow was 28 when he signed said 2 year extension that bought out his 1st year of free agency, and he still had two years of arbitration control when he signed it.  He made roughly $5M during what would have been his last year of salary arbitration in 2023 following his missed 2022 season due to TJ rehab.  Woodruff will be 31 headed into the 2024 season that he likely won't get on a MLB mound for, and that's also his last year of arbitration before reaching free agency.  Based on his body of work, Woody's 2024 salary arbitration figure is likely to be more than double that of Glasnow's even with the understanding he probably won't pitch next year due to injury.  The timing of when the arm injuries occurred is just different between the two pitchers.

And I'd much rather give a younger pitcher a 2 year deal in this scenario who's recovering from TJ than a shoulder surgery.  That being said, I'm not sure TB is too thrilled to be having to pay Glasnow $25M next season after he was only able to pitch in 21 games during 2023 due to an oblique and back spasm issues....also not great  things for a 6'8" pitcher to have in addition to arm injuries.

It sucks, but it's in the Brewers' best interest to just move on and use the savings of not offering Woodruff arbitration to keep Burnes around unless a team pays a king's ransom in trade value to get him this offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I split this into its own topic because I came here wanting to talk about the interview and didn't see anything about it.

This is kind of a no-brainer for both sides. Woody needs a place to rehab, he likes it here, and the Brewers absolutely want a pitcher of his caliber.

To me, the only real question is "do you sign him for 2025 or try to go 2025-2026?"

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I split this into its own topic because I came here wanting to talk about the interview and didn't see anything about it.

This is kind of a no-brainer for both sides. Woody needs a place to rehab, he likes it here, and the Brewers absolutely want a pitcher of his caliber.

To me, the only real question is "do you sign him for 2025 or try to go 2025-2026?"

let me know the list of pitchers on the wrong side of 30 who underwent significant shoulder surgery and were equally as dominant in the years afterwards to justify signing Woodruff to any kind of longterm deal knowing he's likely out all of 2024 that makes this a no brainer for both sides.  by the way, that list is incredibly short.

For Woodruff, probably a no-brainer to be paid anything with guaranteed money in seasons 2 or 3, yes.  For the Brewers, I just disagree it makes any sort of sense unless Woodruff is willing to take significantly less $ for 2024 to rehab (<$5M), what his arbitration salary would have been next year for 2025 (say $10-12M), and have a club option in the neighborhood of $15-20M for 2026.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

let me know the list of pitchers on the wrong side of 30 who underwent significant shoulder surgery and were equally as dominant in the years afterwards to justify signing Woodruff to any kind of longterm deal knowing he's likely out all of 2024 that makes this a no brainer for both sides.  by the way, that list is incredibly short.

For Woodruff, probably a no-brainer to be paid anything with guaranteed money in seasons 2 or 3, yes.  For the Brewers, I just disagree it makes any sort of sense unless Woodruff is willing to take significantly less $ for 2024 to rehab (<$5M), what his arbitration salary would have been next year for 2025 (say $10-12M), and have a club option in the neighborhood of $15-20M for 2026.

Oh, his 2024 contract will be minimal, probably like $2-3m and then more guaranteed money in 2025. If the Brewers can negotiate it, an option for 2026 would be ideal.

I’m basically ignoring 2024 because it’s a rehab year. You lock him up so he has facilities to rehabilitate, not any expectation of performance.

The Twins have done this a few times, as have other teams. I think it’s a good strategy. 

[nate82]

I don’t believe Woodruff would want to go more than two years unless the Brewers did a long term contract like five or six years.

Something around two years and $20mm sounds about right. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I don’t believe Woodruff would want to go more than two years unless the Brewers did a long term contract like five or six years.

Something around two years and $20mm sounds about right. 

I also suspect he's only willing to go 2024-2025. But the Brewers may as well try to get an option year in 2026, even though it's unlikely to happen.

For the record, I think a 2024-2025 contract for $20m-ish is a good gamble.

[AKCheesehead]

I don't know, I guess I lean with those who want a '26 team option.  Because of the type of injury, you just don't know if Woodruff's ever going to be good again.  $20m on a 2 year deal...I just don't think that'd be a great idea.  I mean it's really a 1 year deal since '24 is shot.  Is a guy coming off capsule surgery and not pitching in a year worth $20m/year?  There's a chance, sure.  And if he is, then we exercise the option.  Woo agreeing to the '26 option seems like a fair reciprocation for the faith by the Brewers to commit to the 2 year deal.  So that's what I'm hoping for.

[MrTPlush]

On 10/27/2023 at 11:03 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Glasnow was 28 when he signed said 2 year extension that bought out his 1st year of free agency, and he still had two years of arbitration control when he signed it.  He made roughly $5M during what would have been his last year of salary arbitration in 2023 following his missed 2022 season due to TJ rehab.  Woodruff will be 31 headed into the 2024 season that he likely won't get on a MLB mound for, and that's also his last year of arbitration before reaching free agency.  Based on his body of work, Woody's 2024 salary arbitration figure is likely to be more than double that of Glasnow's even with the understanding he probably won't pitch next year due to injury.  The timing of when the arm injuries occurred is just different between the two pitchers.

And I'd much rather give a younger pitcher a 2 year deal in this scenario who's recovering from TJ than a shoulder surgery.  That being said, I'm not sure TB is too thrilled to be having to pay Glasnow $25M next season after he was only able to pitch in 21 games during 2023 due to an oblique and back spasm issues....also not great  things for a 6'8" pitcher to have in addition to arm injuries.

It sucks, but it's in the Brewers' best interest to just move on and use the savings of not offering Woodruff arbitration to keep Burnes around unless a team pays a king's ransom in trade value to get him this offseason.

Yah something like 2/$30mil makes no sense and here why:

The Brewers can cut his salary by 20% and Woodruff has no way to claim he deserves more. So $8.5mil for 2024. Then they can give him a qualifying offer that probably would be about $22mil. Absolutely no team is going to give him that and lose picks.

If he wants $30mil, you might as well pay him $8.5mil and watch him first hand come back from injury. We might even get a brief time to watch him on an MiLB or MLB mound next year. Then we can decide if we want to waste any more money on him.

So we have quite a bit of leverage here. He could end up with as little as $8.5mil, get hurt again, delayed, or look terrible…at which point no team will give him anywhere near $22mil.

Im guessing 2/$20mil is the happy medium for Woodruff. Is that for the Brewers? Brewers could waste every penny they give him or could pay him a ton for a neutral result. I guess I question the potential gain on the Brewers end. The ceiling for risking all that money doesn’t seem awfully high.

[Turnbows Barber]

I don't know what the right number is or what the odds of him returning to near pre-injury performance but I hope they find a way to work something out that works for both sides.  Woody is the type of player I want on a team that I'm cheering for.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Im guessing 2/$20mil is the happy medium for Woodruff. Is that for the Brewers? Brewers could waste every penny they give him or could pay him a ton for a neutral result. I guess I question the potential gain on the Brewers end. The ceiling for risking all that money doesn’t seem awfully high.

The second year could also be an option year based on a physical.  The Brewers would just have to include a buyout if that were the case.

The ceiling doesn't really need to be all that high for it to work in the Brewers favor.  If Woodruff returns healthy and is able to pitch like he is able to $13-16m for one year is rather favorable for the Brewers considering what you would have to pay in FA for that.

[MrTPlush]

30 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The second year could also be an option year based on a physical.  The Brewers would just have to include a buyout if that were the case.

The ceiling doesn't really need to be all that high for it to work in the Brewers favor.  If Woodruff returns healthy and is able to pitch like he is able to $13-16m for one year is rather favorable for the Brewers considering what you would have to pay in FA for that.

I mean, I would sign him to a 2/$13mil deal. I doubt he takes that though.

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean, I would sign him to a 2/$13mil deal. I doubt he takes that though.

That could work but I think you need to get closer to $20m.  So maybe 2/$16-18m is probably closer.  Even at 2/$13m you could pitch it as rehab for $1m and then $12m in year two which would be just over his arbitration estimate for '24.  I think you need to get closer to $3m for year one and then something closer to $13-15m in year two.  So a 2/$16m would work with $3m in year one and then $13m in year two. 

[Underachiever]

As a guy with more that a small chance of never pitching again (not a doctor), it behooves Woodruff to play nice with any team, especially the one that currently has control over him. 

I think he was looking at getting what, 150 million in another year? Cannot imagine how that feels to lose that chance, so if teams dangle money in front of him for beyond 2024 at this point, he has to take it. I don't think it is in the Brewers' best interest to be that team. I don't want to be reading threads in 2026 wondering if he is going to return at some point during the season.

[Harold Hutchison]

On 10/28/2023 at 10:05 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I split this into its own topic because I came here wanting to talk about the interview and didn't see anything about it.

This is kind of a no-brainer for both sides. Woody needs a place to rehab, he likes it here, and the Brewers absolutely want a pitcher of his caliber.

To me, the only real question is "do you sign him for 2025 or try to go 2025-2026?"

Go 2025-2026, an option for 2027 that vests at a certain threshold of IPs, and a mutual option for 2028.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, clancyphile said:

Go 2025-2026, an option for 2027 that vests at a certain threshold of IPs, and a mutual option for 2028.

The guaranteed length scares me here. If Woodruff was coming back from TJS, sure, let's do that. But I'm scared about a shoulder. If Woodruff comes back throwing 92mph, more than one guaranteed year will really hurt.

[Harold Hutchison]

I'd probably have the threshold relatively high - say 320 IP across the two seasons - for the option to vest.

One of three things happens: Woodruff either is back to Woodruff - and the Crew gets their 1B ace back; Woodruff adjusts and becomes a different type of solid starter - and is still valuable; Woodruff can't get back to form or adjust - he becomes an expensive mop-up guy.

The first two scenarios work out very well for the Crew. The third... we take a hit, but I'm thinking one of the other two are far more likely.

[Thurston Fluff]

One thing in favor of taking a bigger risk with Woodfuff is the timing of the injury. We are about to have several pre-arby guys filling major roles on the team so it's easier to absorb the money spent on Woody if he can't make it back to a serviceable level. It would suck to spend money of someone who can't help, but was that money really going to be used on players in 2020/24 anyway? If it was my decision I'd pay a much larger chunk of the 2-3 year deal in year one so the payroll hit would be when we had the lower payroll due to all the pre-arby players on the roster. That way the hit to the payroll when some of the young guys hit arbitration will be lower. If we offer Woody a 3 year $30 million deal with $10 million next season the next two years would be a steal if he's near his old self, not bad if he's serviceable and not terrible if he's toast.

[markedman5]

According to Woody it wasn’t a big tear…..

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/10/31/brandon-woodruff-milwaukee-brewers-starting-pitcher-goals-post-surgery/71392038007/