Taylor, Houser to NYM

[beekay414]

Excellent work by Arnold here IMO trading two guys with no future in Milwaukee for a highly intriguing arm with some upside. Not really sure what people are crowing about (pun intended lol) with this one. We're not going to miss Houser or Taylor.

[jay87shot]

8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Excellent work by Arnold here IMO trading two guys with no future in Milwaukee for a highly intriguing arm with some upside. Not really sure what people are crowing about (pun intended lol) with this one. We're not going to miss Houser or Taylor.

It is a bad trade because we got nothing for them. Both guys should have had more value then the guy w got.

Crow was a 28th round pick who only averages 90 mph on his fastball and underwent Tommy John in August after only pitching 4 games all last year. My guess is that odds that he never pitches in our organization are better than him being a rotation piece in the future.

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

[SRB]

24 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Let's walk through the timeline here and requirements:

Scenario 1 - Brewers select Crow in Rule 5 draft:

• Crow must be put on 60-day DL rehabbing for most of 2024 or be returned to Mets
  • Crow accumulates MLB service time while on 60-day DL in 2024, reducing how long the Brewers have control while he is (anticipated to be) healthy
  • Crow likely does not accumulate 90 days on the 26-man active roster in 2024 to satisfy Rule 5 draft ownership
• Crow is added to the 40-man roster after 2024 season ends
• Crow must spend 90 days on the 26-man MLB active roster in 2025 to satisfy Rule 5 draft ownership requirements
  • Brewers cannot option Crow to the minors until he has spent 90 days on the active roster in 2025
  • Crow has to make the jump from AA to the majors in 2025 and perform at the major league level to not be a liability to the major league team in 2025
  • Crow accumulates MLB service time during those 90 days whether he is ready for the majors or not

 

Scenario 2 - Brewers trade for Crow

• Crow is rehabbing most of 2024 but does not have to be put on the 60-day DL
  • Crow does not accumulate MLB service time rehabbing in minors since he does not have to be put on 40-man roster
• Crow is added to 40-man roster after 2024 season ends
• Brewers can option Crow to the minors anytime in 2025 without having to spend any time on the 26-man major league roster
  • Crow does not have to start the season on the major league team
  • Crow does not have to make the jump from AA to the majors
  • Crow does not have to be a potential liability to the major league team for a minimum of 90 days
  • Crow does not accumulate MLB service time if he is not ready for the majors

 

Did I miss anything?

Yes, good post. And there's another huge downside to taking him through the Rule 5 draft because it messes with his development. In the event he's ready to pitch again at some point in 2024 you have to pretend he's injured and lose the development time (or put him on the major league roster during the middle of a stretch run). Even if you keep him on the IL for the entirety of 2025, then you have a young kid who has never pitched above AA coming off TJ surgery and rather than working with him in the minors you have to throw him into the deep end for 3 months. It could derail his career.

We tried that experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and it was not only brutal to watch but probably hampered his career.

[markedman5]

7 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

It is a bad trade because we got nothing for them. Both guys should have had more value then the guy w got.

Crow was a 28th round pick who only averages 90 mph on his fastball and underwent Tommy John in August after only pitching 4 games all last year. My guess is that odds that he never pitches in our organization are better than him being a rotation piece in the future.

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

My educated guess is Arnold talked to numerous teams( because he would want to gauge market and get the best return possible) and if there was an offer out there like you suggest he would have made that trade.

 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

salary dump, thats all. 

They could have just non-tendered them. 

They must like Crow's arm somewhat. 

[jay87shot]

Just now, markedman5 said:

My educated guess is Arnold talked to numerous teams( because he would want to gauge market and get the best return possible) and if there was an offer out there like you suggest he would have made that trade.

 

 

 

I am sure he did but he would have way more value to us than the 5 million. Colin Rae is making 3.5 witha 1 million buyout. I'd rather have kept Houser for the extra million. 

We gave up Devanney and Brady for Clarke, which in my opinion is giving up more in prospect value than what we got for both Houser and Taylor. Individually Taylor or Houser should have more trade value than Clarke.

[tmwiese55]

Yea they're not stupid, have to think they liked this better than whatever else they could get and that they did their due diligence.   However, if its the best you got then I would've probably waited and kept your depth.   This team has won on the edges the last few years by being deeper than other teams.  They just gave away some of that depth.   

We'll see though, 3 months until the season to see what else comes in. But as of now its a pretty safe bet there is gonna be a lot of starts/innings rolled out by guys we would have rather had Houser in that we'll all roll our eyes on during BP games, well we're punting this one, etc type days.  And I hope all the OFs pan out and aren't hurt, but I'm guessing a couple hundred ABs are gonna go to guys who get made fun of on here like Perkins, Tapia, Ruf etc.   Hopefully there's some action soon enough though and there's more to it than just giving up depth to save 6 mil. 

[Frisbee Slider]

29 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

Is there evidence of similar trades in recent memory yielding the results you expected?

[wallus]

If this extra payroll flexibility is used to improve the roster, I am okay with it. Example, signing Santana and picking up a guy like Polanco.

If we just dumped these guys, then I would have rather traded them at the deadline if this was the market.

[CheeseheadInQC]

8 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I am sure he did but he would have way more value to us than the 5 million. Colin Rae is making 3.5 witha 1 million buyout. I'd rather have kept Houser for the extra million. 

We gave up Devanney and Brady for Clarke, which in my opinion is giving up more in prospect value than what we got for both Houser and Taylor. Individually Taylor or Houser should have more trade value than Clarke.

I might be completely off base, but I think the Brewers are going for quality for hitting prospects and quantity for starting pitching prospects. They have treated non-top 25 hitting prospects as completely tradable, but seem to be collecting starting pitchers in that range. It has been consistent enough this offseason to seem like a conscious decision. Also, I think that one of the services had Crow as a top 10 prospect in the Angels organization before the trade. I mean it is the Angels organization, but that’s still something. I am guessing that the Brewers would have easily traded Devanney and Brady for him.

[Bulldogboy]

32 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

They could have just non-tendered them. 

They must like Crow's arm somewhat. 

Do not underestimate Arnold doing his old boss a solid. Next up Burnes for Mr. Met

[Fear The Chorizo]

19 minutes ago, wallus said:

If this extra payroll flexibility is used to improve the roster, I am okay with it. Example, signing Santana and picking up a guy like Polanco.

If we just dumped these guys, then I would have rather traded them at the deadline if this was the market.

I would rather have the potential upside of young OFs taking Taylor's ABs and playing time this year, and the exact same thing could be said of Gasser taking Houser's innings for way less than $6m with the potential for him to also pitch better while developing at the MLB level.

Just because this pair of 30 yr old backups were 1 year shy of free agency doesn't make them coveted assets for a team looking to improve talent on their mlb roster.

[jay87shot]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Is there evidence of similar trades in recent memory yielding the results you expected?

Ryan Yarbrough at the deadline got the Dodgers #29 1B prospect and a 19 lotto type prospect. I like a full year of Houser a lot more than 2 month of Yarbrough.

We gave up Jace Avina for Bauers. I would argue Avina is a better prospect than Crow and that Taylor has way more value than Bauers.

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

MLB.com has slotted Crow in as their 25th top prospect. Seems like Arnold could have at least gotten a lottery ticket out of that trade in addition to Crow. I think people are over rating him. The writeup for Crow is a ceiling as a backend starter. Not finding many who would evaluate him as a potential mid rotation guy; not with his fastball.

I also don't buy that they needed to do this to clear 40 man roster space. Yes, they were full, but they have a number of guys who could be let go due to ineffectiveness last year or out of options and no clear role in 2024.  Hard to believe Houser/Taylor were less important than Andrews, Bukauskas, J. Jones, Junk, Viera.

[markedman5]

4 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

MLB.com has slotted Crow in as their 25th top prospect. Seems like Arnold could have at least gotten a lottery ticket out of that trade in addition to Crow. I think people are over rating him. The writeup for Crow is a ceiling as a backend starter. Not finding many who would evaluate him as a potential mid rotation guy; not with his fastball.

I also don't buy that they needed to do this to clear 40 man roster space. Yes, they were full, but they have a number of guys who could be let go due to ineffectiveness last year or out of options and no clear role in 2024.  Hard to believe Houser/Taylor were less important than Andrews, Bukauskas, J. Jones, Junk, Viera.

They wanted to clear the money so they could use it someplace else…..and get a player they liked. 
 

It’s not that complicated.

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

They wanted to clear the money so they could use it someplace else…..and get a player they liked. 
 

It’s not that complicated.

Right. People hating this deal are making the assumption that we won’t spend the savings, and that MA will just pocket them. Which is a pretty big assumption to make at this stage of the off-season. 

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

They wanted to clear the money so they could use it someplace else…..and get a player they liked. 
 

It’s not that complicated.

I mean why did they need to clear any money? Before this trade we were set to open the year with a 26-man payroll $15M lower than last year and $30M lower than 2022. We also have a ton of money coming off the books after 2024. The idea that the Brewers are in a salary crunch is a fallacy. 

[Hooker78]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

It is a bad trade because we got nothing for them. Both guys should have had more value then the guy w got.

Crow was a 28th round pick who only averages 90 mph on his fastball and underwent Tommy John in August after only pitching 4 games all last year. My guess is that odds that he never pitches in our organization are better than him being a rotation piece in the future.

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

Both guys had more value? You must be an insider to speak in absolutes, so who exactly were the more valuable guys the Crew  passed on that was better than the guy they got?
 

It’s funny how much conjecture and assumptions are made by message board posters in criticizing those with actual knowledge and experience in doing the job.

The value of the guys the Brewers traded was exactly what they received in return. And a young, controllable arm with mid rotation upside is pretty valuable. Good trade.

 

[beekay414]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

It is a bad trade because we got nothing for them. Both guys should have had more value then the guy w got.

Crow was a 28th round pick who only averages 90 mph on his fastball and underwent Tommy John in August after only pitching 4 games all last year. My guess is that odds that he never pitches in our organization are better than him being a rotation piece in the future.

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

Houser is a nothing burger. He's an overpaid innings eater and he's failed at even being that the last 3 seasons. He was never pulling anything of value at his pay rate. 

Taylor is a 4th OF with a career OBP under .300. I think "high quality" is being used extremely loosely here. 

This is nothing more than a case of overvaluing our own. 

We also do pretty damn well developing guys with spotty fastballs. His command is legit and everything else is really solid. You get that fastball to tick up post TJS (and quite a few players do) and he's a viable player. Arnold did extremely well here in the gamble department. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

Houser is a nothing burger. He's an overpaid innings eater and he's failed at even being that the last 3 seasons. He was never pulling anything of value at his pay rate. 

Taylor is a 4th OF with a career OBP under .300. I think "high quality" is being used extremely loosely here. 

This is nothing more than a case of overvaluing our own. 

We also do pretty damn well developing guys with spotty fastballs. His command is legit and everything else is really solid. You get that fastball to tick up post TJS (and quite a few players do) and he's a viable player. Arnold did extremely well here in the gamble department. 

Implying Houser was overpaid is wild when guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Erick Fedde are getting over $10M guaranteed.

Tyrone is a great 4th OF. He's an awesome pinch hitter, a great defender, an average overall hitter, a good baserunner. 

You're just underrating those two players who combined for nearly 3 fWAR last year despite both having injury issues. 3 fWAR for a project $7M in 2024 is a bargain.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean why did they need to clear any money? Before this trade we were set to open the year with a 26-man payroll $15M lower than last year and $30M lower than 2022. We also have a ton of money coming off the books after 2024. The idea that the Brewers are in a salary crunch is a fallacy. 

The 40 man roster spots mean more to the Brewers at this point than the $...neither Taylor or Houser had options left and were in their 3rd year of salary arbitration = they've got the least amount of 40 man roster flexibility and team control remaining and they're much more expensive than other younger and more talented players who need to be on the field or on the mound in Milwaukee.

As others have pointed out, freeing up both a chunk of payroll budget and roster spaces seems to indicate something else is in the works to go along with this move, too.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

Yes, good post. And there's another huge downside to taking him through the Rule 5 draft because it messes with his development. In the event he's ready to pitch again at some point in 2024 you have to pretend he's injured and lose the development time (or put him on the major league roster during the middle of a stretch run). Even if you keep him on the IL for the entirety of 2025, then you have a young kid who has never pitched above AA coming off TJ surgery and rather than working with him in the minors you have to throw him into the deep end for 3 months. It could derail his career.

We tried that experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and it was not only brutal to watch but probably hampered his career.

Well, for the sake of argument, you'd justifiably be able to keep him in the minors for quite a while rehabbing(6 weeks is it?)...and then given that he's coming back off TJ, it wouldn't be hard to say he's dealing with more arm fatigue and then do that again.

But you're still well short of the service time requisite and you head into '25 in the same situation. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Fear The Chorizo said:

The 40 man roster spots mean more to the Brewers at this point than the $...neither Taylor or Houser had options left and were in their 3rd year of salary arbitration = they've got the least amount of 40 man roster flexibility and team control remaining and they're much more expensive than other younger and more talented players who need to be on the field or on the mound in Milwaukee.

As others have pointed out, freeing up both a chunk of payroll budget and roster spaces seems to indicate something else is in the works to go along with this move, too.

Tyrone was in his first year of arbitration not his third. He still has 3 years of team control. Brewers have plenty of players on the 40-man that they could have easily cleared to make room for roster moves. Ethan Small, Clayton Andrews, Vinny Capra, Chris Roller, Jahmai Jones.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlb.com/news/coleman-crow-traded-to-brewers-from-mets

[beekay414]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

We gave up Devanney and Brady for Clarke, which in my opinion is giving up more in prospect value than what we got for both Houser and Taylor.

I'm a massive prospect guy and this just isn't really true. Cam Devanney is a guy we see all over the minors that just never cuts it in the bigs. The Mariners have a better version of him just wasting away in Jake Scheiner (power with no real standout tools elsewhere). 

Brady is a low leverage reliever with a pretty bad strand rate in the minors. He's nothing.