Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[brewmann04]

I guess we have to see Hall is going to be a Starter in this case i feel a bit better we seem to have enough guys that could become Bull Pen Guys

[brewmann04]

It also seems our Catcher is upset over this move also wonder what type of Effect it will have on Him.

[ctmyers]

1 hour ago, patrickgpe said:

Ortiz hit 321/378/885 in triple A last year and has shown a good glove,  what would impress you?

Jordan Westburg or Coby Mayo, for starters.  And if we want to make a comparison, Ortiz's minor league numbers look a lot like Owen Miller's.  There's nothing to suggest that Ortiz is going to go down that path, but the profile is similar.  College middle infielder, taken in the 3rd/4th round.  Positional flexibility, good but not terrific minor league production.  

To me, this looks like a low ceiling, high floor player, which is nice, but doesn't move the needle.  And considering what Burnes is, it's not enough, IMO. 

[SRB]

5 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Is anyone taking the position that this trade will make the Brewers better this season?

It easily could if they now take the money saved from Burnes and spend it. The back of our rotation and bench infield depth are/were close to replacement level, so if you project Ortiz and Hall to hit the ground running with solid enough seasons (1-2 WAR each) and if they sign another averagish SP then you could have three major leaguers putting up more value than Burnes and two replacement level players.

[brewerfan82]

3 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

It also seems our Catcher is upset over this move also wonder what type of Effect it will have on Him.

I think he deleted that tweet already (which was jsut a couple emojis, something along the lines of a sad and a shocked one, for anyone that missed it), but regardless, I wouldn't read too much into it. Guys, just like us here, are going to have an initial gut punch to hearing news like that. I would be surprised if there are any longterm issues he has with it, especially considering he didn't even catch for him regularly.

[owbc]

32 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

I'm surprised people would think we are a good bet to win the division. We are thin at starting pitching. We're going to lose a lot of games unless we can do something about that.

The problem with picking us to not win the division is that you have to pick one of the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, or Cardinals instead. 

They need to close gaps of 9, 10, 16, and 21 wins, respectively. 

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

I'm surprised people would think we are a good bet to win the division. We are thin at starting pitching. We're going to lose a lot of games unless we can do something about that.

The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS).

That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS.

SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

That's from the Athletic. The standard for a starting pitcher shouldn't be 'is he coming off his BEST season.'

He's clearly viewed as an elite pitcher. The "regression" from his CY Young award included top 8 finishes in voting each year, a WHIP under 1 until the league hit better this year and he was just over 1.0...and he led the league. 

He's durable, he's going to give you 200 innings a year, strike out 200 and he's going to pitch like an ace. 

 

I don't get how it's often the same people saying he's going to get 300M, he's priced himself out...who will also say he's no longer an ace or he's regressed? I don't think teams too notice of his "decline," and I think he's viewed as one of the top pitchers in the game. I think what's more likely is that...teams don't really care about the rankings(they'll use it to hype a player, but really, that's not what they look at when they're trading for someone) and they have their own. 

The Brewers...I HOPE simply viewed Hall as a guy who they could "fix," and get him to throw more than 50-60 innings a season while also getting a pretty high floor SS(or 2B/3B) who also has a relatively high ceiling and then moving their draft capital up a year. 

 

I said he's still quality, and an upper-rotation guy. There has been some regression, and if those numbers pointed out earlier in the thread were slightly better over the last three seasons rather than the opposite, it may have made a difference in the return (although only getting the guy for one year factors in heavily).

I won't deny that at the end of the day he's still one of the top pitchers out there. I don't know if he'll get 300M, that's a byproduct of the system more than anything. Let's face it, you can be an elite talent, regress slightly, and still get that kind of money from one of the usual suspects.

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, SRB said:

It easily could if they now take the money saved from Burnes and spend it. The back of our rotation and bench infield depth are/were close to replacement level, so if you project Ortiz and Hall to hit the ground running with solid enough seasons (1-2 WAR each) and if they sign another averagish SP then you could have three major leaguers putting up more value than Burnes and two replacement level players.

That sounds like a lot of ifs, and also seems to assume that some of the young players that have been hyped on this board are no better than replacement level. 

I realize that trading Burnes was probably a move that had to be made and that the return they got might have been as much as could have been expected.

What depresses me, though is that, once again, the future that looked bright a few years ago did not pan out as hoped, and the Brewers are forced to regroup and try to be competitive with a different formula. They seem to go through this cycle every 4-5 years since they broke out of the doldrums of 1993-2006.

Don't get me wrong. The last 15 years have been much more entertaining than the 15 than preceded them. But the franchise seems to be following a Sisyphian pattern. In 2020, a generally mediocre team displayed some hope that the Brewers could succeed with an elite staff of starters and bullpen arms that could make them a difficult opponent in a playoff series. Adding Adames in 2021 threw an exciting young position player into the mix and led to one of the best Brewers seasons ever despite the late season and playoff swoon.

Trading Burnes highlights that the elite pitching era for the Brewers is over and leaves the Brewers with a lot of question marks in both pitching and hitting. 

So, it's back to "the future is bright" and hoping that some players with no major league track record blossom into something above replacement level. 

[homer]

31 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS).

That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS.

SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.

I still can't believe Jesus Aguilar had an 890 OPS. 

[SeaBass]

The Brewers were 18-14 in regular season games Burnes started last season regardless of his actual performance. The team lost a game where Burnes pitched 8 no hit innings and no runs allowed and they won a game where Burnes allowed 3 HR and 6 ER in 6 IP. There were only 2 games where he pitched fewer than 5 innings (both wins).

So yeah, I think they can win and compete for the division without him.

[patrickgpe]

42 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

It also seems our Catcher is upset over this move also wonder what type of Effect it will have on Him.

our catcher also posted a broken heart emoji when he got traded to the brewers. which he got over quickly. 

[brewmann04]

This rotation going  backwards imo going to need a lot of healthy Bullpen arms 

[brewmann04]

The Catcher  deleted  the one he said that Willy will be Next.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Well they are both currently on top 100 lists (Hall on Baseball America's list, and Ortiz on MLB's list). Also "struggled mightily at the MLB level" is strong/inaccurate for one guy that has 4.36 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 11.45 K/9, 3.00 K/9, 0.55 HR/9, and 0.8 fWAR in only 33 IP in the majors, and another guy that only has 34 PAs in the majors.

What Hall is doing BARELY qualifies as not being a bust. Certainly a useful reliever, when you're talking about a top 100 prospect...they need to start or be a reliever at Devin Williams level otherwise it's fair to say that player fell short of expectations and didn't justify their ranking. If Hall doesn't start and pitches in relief, he won't initially be an option for the 8th/9th.

There's also no shortage of guys that can put up good contact numbers with low power in AAA that don't translate to MLB. Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Hader for Ruiz/Gasser/Rogers/Limet was panned pretty heavily.

Many questioned giving up talented arms like Olson/Kelly for Norris/Bush at the very same deadline.

The Hader one wasn't quite as bad on paper as this one. It helped that we immediately got a less good replacement, and it was also proven shortly after that us and pretty much every analyst was way way off on the value of Ruiz(or the Athletics were).

I will generally agree those 2 trades looked worse on paper, but the level of value was so much lower that even a bad trade isn't THAT bad. You can't have a brain fart when you're trading a guy like Burnes.

[homer]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The Hader one wasn't quite as bad on paper as this one. It helped that we immediately got a less good replacement, and it was also proven shortly after that us and pretty much every analyst was way way off on the value of Ruiz(or the Athletics were).

I will generally agree those 2 trades looked worse on paper, but the level of value was so much lower that even a bad trade isn't THAT bad. You can't have a brain fart when you're trading a guy like Burnes.

Guys with one year left on their deals don't net a fantastic return most of the time.

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

 Ortiz had 33 MLB at bats. holy small sample size. Also Hall's relief stats are not that bad in 2023. 

Ortiz is 25 and hasn't been given a shot, that should tell you something. I'm aware of the O's prospect pipeline being part of the reason, doesn't explain how he couldn't push Mateo and his .607 OPS off the SS position. The fact the O's wouldn't give him a shot over Mateo really should tell you all you need to know.

Hall would be a solid guy to include in the trade. 7th inning relievers certainly have value. In this case he seems to be the centerpiece, Even if Hall does his best 2022 Drew Rasmussen...it doesn't make this trade look any less bad on paper at this time.

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, homer said:

Guys with one year left on their deals don't net a fantastic return most of the time.

The Padres just got way more for Soto, who has a much higher salary. Soto has been a bit more valuable lately(approx 1 WAR higher the last 3 years,..2 WAR higher in 2023), but the Yankees gave up sooooo much more for him than the O's did for Soto. King/Thorpe are probably more valuable than what the O's gave us...and they also got 3 more players.

[brewmann04]

The Team need Starters not More Relievers

[Harold Hutchison]

47 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I think you're underselling his minor league performance:

• 2019 - A (-0.9 age vs. league average), .241/.341/.267, 96 wRC+
• 2021 - A+ (-0.9), .289/.382/.434, 123 wRC+
• 2021 - AA (-1.9), .233/.313/.467, 111 wRC+
• 2022 - AA (-0.9), .269/.337/.455, 115 wRC+
• 2022 - AAA (-3.4), .346/.400/.567, 154 wRC+
• 2023 - AAA (-2.3), .321/.378/.507, 121 wRC+

That's some pretty consistent well above average offense while being younger than league average every season. Throw in elite defense and you've got a pretty nice player there.

I'd say a relatively low-end outcome is Ortiz being Atlanta-level Orlando Arcia (96 OPS+, excellent D) as opposed to the 2018-2019 Arcia for the Crew or 2023 Turang.

Hall, at worst, is Josh Hader 2.0 for the Crew. Still an excellent return before even thinking about the CB-A pick...

[Harold Hutchison]

15 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The Hader one wasn't quite as bad on paper as this one. It helped that we immediately got a less good replacement, and it was also proven shortly after that us and pretty much every analyst was way way off on the value of Ruiz(or the Athletics were).

I will generally agree those 2 trades looked worse on paper, but the level of value was so much lower that even a bad trade isn't THAT bad. You can't have a brain fart when you're trading a guy like Burnes.

But the Crew was able to flip Ruiz for William Contreras and Joel Payamps.

[brewmann04]

if Hall is anything like Josh it be ok but  wish we added a starter more .

Cant wait to see Rae and Ross pitch  and have a feeling AA will become a Reliever than a rotation guy

[DR28]

I was pissed last night, but now I'm ok with the deal..... IF we sign someone like Soler and Clevinger for the rotation.

And IF there isn't follow up moves, I will be back to being pissed.

If we can make Hall legit.... Peralta, Ashby, Hall, Gasser, Miley, Rea is pretty damn nice! With Misio and CRod waiting in AAA.

[RobertCrawley]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS).

That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS.

SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.

This is solid information, and I love your optimism. I hope we somehow have a great season. But FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM all have us finishing 4th in a division of 5. So good bet?