Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[Lloyd330]

The people that dislike the trade are two types of people 1. believed that Burnes value was higher than it was or 2. think this team was going to better than it actually is. 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, brewmann04 said:

I am sure what happened to Brandon got this team scared to hold onto him at least to the Trade Deadline. But Now we are without our Two Co Aces and this is a big Issue as we have a lot of Questions with guys 2-5 slotted for this rotation

Add that to the Hader trade midseason being problematic.  I'd guess management knows long term it was best to trade and get more than a comp pick, even if it moves your WS chances this year from 4% down to 1% with the trade.  If they went into the year with him and he does well, with the crap division and expanded playoffs there's almost no way they can trade him at the deadline while likely in 1st place or very close.  Combine that with injury risk you said and Burnes' slightly combative attitude last year they thought it best to just get it done now. 

As fans it hurts this year as you go from clear division favorites back to the pack with the other mediocre teams in the division.  Still, the division is so weak they can still be competitive and have a chance. Especially if some kind of stable starting pitching is added with this freed up money.

[brewmann04]

7 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

But the Crew was able to flip Ruiz for William Contreras and Joel Payamps.

Your Right but that move attaht time destroyed the psyche and Mojo of that team that was in First Place at that point. 

[Matt Breen]

All the debate over the deal aside, Hall is really intriguing. He's never put up numbers to match his talents - so it will be fascinating to see where he goes. 

 

 

[RobertCrawley]

13 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

All the debate over the deal aside, Hall is really intriguing. He's never put up numbers to match his talents - so it will be fascinating to see where he goes. 

 

 

Did I hear he has control issues? If so, he might be like Freddy. Once he finds it, he'll be highly effective.

[homer]

36 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The Padres just got way more for Soto, who has a much higher salary. Soto has been a bit more valuable lately(approx 1 WAR higher the last 3 years,..2 WAR higher in 2023), but the Yankees gave up sooooo much more for him than the O's did for Soto. King/Thorpe are probably more valuable than what the O's gave us...and they also got 3 more players.

Not exactly apples to apples deals. The Padres also traded Grisham in that deal. And King is 28 years old and will be a free agent in 2026.

Anyway, hard to judge a trade until the dust settles in 3, 4  years.

[wibadgers23]

17 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

All the debate over the deal aside, Hall is really intriguing. He's never put up numbers to match his talents - so it will be fascinating to see where he goes. 

 

 

Yeah and the Brewers have a pretty good track record of developing pitching. I’m excited about Hall.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, brewmann04 said:

It also seems our Catcher is upset over this move also wonder what type of Effect it will have on Him.

Wouldn’t read much into it. He is one of the rare cases of an MLB players using Twitter like NFL players…like a 13 year old teenager. 

He did the same thing after Counsell signed with the Cubs. Pretty sure ye had some tweet after getting traded here. He just likes to make knee jerk reactions with emojis. Everyone else just thinks the same privately.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner.

You mean like Woodruff, who was 25 when he rolled into being a bullpen option down the stretch in 2018 and in the playoffs (btw, Hall was in that exact same role on last fall's Oriole playoff roster)? And if I'm not mistaken, Hall still has 6 more years of team control tied to him before becoming a free agent, regardless of his current age. 

I don't think age has nearly as much to do with concerns over a pitcher drafted out of high school who missed a full season of development in the minors due to COVID, plus had his 2021 season cut short due to elbow concerns.    Those two years would've been years #3 and 4 in the minors, which are typically the seasons where talented high school arms ramp up their workloads over 100 IP+.  For reference, Justin Steele never went over 100 IP in any of his 7! miLB seasons before finally being a regular in the Cubs' rotation in 2022 as a 26 yr old.  Hall was a 1st round pick in 2017 with a 100-mph arm and plus secondary offerings, but likely is several years behind what a typical pitching prospect would have in terms of development, and those missed years don't mean his stuff has the potential to be any less dominant at the MLB level.

Had Covid and Hall's 2021 arm injury not occurred when they did in his minor league development, Hall would've been up for good in Baltimore as a 22 or 23 yr old.

As for Ortiz being 25 - he was drafted as a 20 yr old out of college in 2019, missed all of his age 21 season due to Covid, then went through high A/AA levels at 22, AA/AAA levels at 23, and then spent most of his age 24 season at AAA before getting sporadic playing time across 15 games early in the season primarily because Mateo was nursing an injury and Henderson wasn't yet taking the lions' share of starts at SS.  All this while playing in an Orioles system that had a can't-miss superstar both ahead of Ortiz (Henderson) and behind him (Holiday). 

In general, the absent Covid year for minor leaguers plugged into MLB systems a season or two before 2020 really should reset people's opinions of prospect ages and how much more room they'd have to develop once they do reach the major leagues.

 

 

[Ewitkows1]

Wonder if they take some of this money and lock up more of the young guys.

[Underachiever]

2 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

It also seems our Catcher is upset over this move also wonder what type of Effect it will have on Him.

I predict none. It will have no effect. He has a couple of weeks, and all of spring training to get used to the idea. Allow the guy to react like a human in the moment, then put that aside and continue to prepare with the resources and mental focus an elite athlete has in the first place. Remember when Burnes was gonna pout his way to a subpar 23 because of arbitration? He did fine.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Ortiz is 25 and hasn't been given a shot, that should tell you something. I'm aware of the O's prospect pipeline being part of the reason, doesn't explain how he couldn't push Mateo and his .607 OPS off the SS position. The fact the O's wouldn't give him a shot over Mateo really should tell you all you need to know.

Hall would be a solid guy to include in the trade. 7th inning relievers certainly have value. In this case he seems to be the centerpiece, Even if Hall does his best 2022 Drew Rasmussen...it doesn't make this trade look any less bad on paper at this time.

You keep saying, "Ortiz is 25", which completely ignores that he was a college pick and two years of his development were torpedoed by COVID and injury.

And by that same token of logic you must really be down on Jackson Holliday considering he also couldn't push Mateo and his .607 OPS off the SS position. Never mind the fact that they had Gunnar Henderson to play SS already on the big league club. 

[markedman5]

 

[adambr2]

17 hours ago, sveumrules said:

ZiPS is currently showing Ortiz (1.8 WAR), Hall (1.1 WAR) and Burnes (4.4 WAR) on their FG player pages.

Isn’t that more like 1.5 wins?

This only works if you're assuming that Ortiz and Hall are replacing replacement level players. 

[Underachiever]

It never occurred to me that the Brewers were not going to be the favorite to win the division. They sure were in my mind. I don't gamble, so seeing the references to gambling sites that they are fourth in the betting odds to win surprised me. 

My assumption is that the young guys will get better, the team will hit more, and still have a great bullpen. You can win a lot of games that way. Last fall I made essentially the same post someone made earlier in this thread about the team once going deep in the playoffs with Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson anchoring the rotation. 

Maybe the Cubs sign Bellinger, Chapman, Soler and Snell and I will change my tune. But am I supposed to be afraid of Lance Lynn in St. Louis? Did Arenado get younger? Is Rowdy gonna lift Pittsburgh to a title? Aroldis Chapman? Reds look better, and if I assume the Brewers' young guys get better, I have to give the Reds young guys the same respect. 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS).

That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS.

SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.

Even if the pitching is no worse than 2018, the offense has to improve A LOT to contribute as much as 2018 with MVP Yelich, All Stars Cain and Aguilar, aging but still productive Ryan Braun, etc. 

The biggest thing in the Brewers favor is no obvious dominating team in the division.

[Harold Hutchison]

27 minutes ago, Ewitkows1 said:

Wonder if they take some of this money and lock up more of the young guys.

Could be very intriguing with Quero, Black, and Hall...

Maybe even a Peralta extension?

[owbc]

Having had some time to think about this, I think the Brewers organization deserves some kudos for continuing to take a long approach to success and making a move that sacrifices some short-term success in exchange for what will likely be longer term benefits. And they were smart enough to wait to make this trade until they had inked Hoskins which certainly softens the blow of this move.

I would say I'm still bummed about this trade at the current moment -- it's just a few weeks before spring training and I wanted a "last dance" season where we would be heavy favorites to win the division. However, I'll bet if I look back at this post in February 2025, I'll be happy we made the move. Right now it hurts a little.

 

[KeithStone53151]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You keep saying, "Ortiz is 25", which completely ignores that he was a college pick and two years of his development were torpedoed by COVID and injury.

And by that same token of logic you must really be down on Jackson Holliday considering he couldn't push Mateo and his .607 OPS off the SS position. Never mind the fact that they had Gunnar Henderson to play SS already on the big league club. 

Lol are you serious? Holliday started the year in low a as a 19 year old. That has literally nothing to do with anything at the MLB level. Ortiz spent all of 2022 and 2023 at the MLB level, had pretty solid production, yet the Orioles still thought Mr 607 OPS was a better option. If the Os thought this guy could hit major league pitching, he could have had a chance in 2022 or 2023. If you want to make the argument that the Orioles are stupid and made a bad decision with him, fine. If you think they are at minimum a remotely competent front office(with this trade, this seems obvious), then they probably don't think this guy is gonna hit MLB pitching.

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, owbc said:

Having had some time to think about this, I think the Brewers organization deserves some kudos for continuing to take a long approach to success and making a move that sacrifices some short-term success in exchange for what will likely be longer term benefits. And they were smart enough to wait to make this trade until they had inked Hoskins which certainly softens the blow of this move.

I would say I'm still bummed about this trade at the current moment -- it's just a few weeks before spring training and I wanted a "last dance" season where we would be heavy favorites to win the division. However, I'll bet if I look back at this post in February 2025, I'll be happy we made the move. Right now it hurts a little.

 

It's one thing to trade Corbin burnes. I understand the need for the team to trade that player, but you gotta do better than this. I view it similar to the Hoskins signing. Allocating payroll to 1b makes sense, I just have concerns about the ACL and wonder if the deal was a good one.

Regardless of my thoughts on the trade, trading burnes is a very clear indication that the way the Brewers win baseball games is going to have to be different going forward. There's gonna need to be a lot more 8-5 wins than 4-2 wins this year if we are gonna be any good.

[KeithStone53151]

49 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner.

You mean like Woodruff, who was 25 when he rolled into being a bullpen option down the stretch in 2018 and in the playoffs (btw, Hall was in that exact same role on last fall's Oriole playoff roster)? And if I'm not mistaken, Hall still has 6 more years of team control tied to him before becoming a free agent, regardless of his current age. 

I don't think age has nearly as much to do with concerns over a pitcher drafted out of high school who missed a full season of development in the minors due to COVID, plus had his 2021 season cut short due to elbow concerns.    Those two years would've been years #3 and 4 in the minors, which are typically the seasons where talented high school arms ramp up their workloads over 100 IP+.  For reference, Justin Steele never went over 100 IP in any of his 7! miLB seasons before finally being a regular in the Cubs' rotation in 2022 as a 26 yr old.  Hall was a 1st round pick in 2017 with a 100-mph arm and plus secondary offerings, but likely is several years behind what a typical pitching prospect would have in terms of development, and those missed years don't mean his stuff has the potential to be any less dominant at the MLB level.

Had Covid and Hall's 2021 arm injury not occurred when they did in his minor league development, Hall would've been up for good in Baltimore as a 22 or 23 yr old.

As for Ortiz being 25 - he was drafted as a 20 yr old out of college in 2019, missed all of his age 21 season due to Covid, then went through high A/AA levels at 22, AA/AAA levels at 23, and then spent most of his age 24 season at AAA before getting sporadic playing time across 15 games early in the season primarily because Mateo was nursing an injury and Henderson wasn't yet taking the lions' share of starts at SS.  All this while playing in an Orioles system that had a can't-miss superstar both ahead of Ortiz (Henderson) and behind him (Holiday). 

In general, the absent Covid year for minor leaguers plugged into MLB systems a season or two before 2020 really should reset people's opinions of prospect ages and how much more room they'd have to develop once they do reach the major leagues.

 

 

True impact talent tends to get to MLB sooner. You pointing out one case of a 25 year old coming up and being a star doesn't change that. You're also making way too much of COVID, has there been a significant change in pattern of prospects coming up? COVID halted the minor leagues for one year and all of a sudden all the prospects had a massive setback? Or, maybe hall had a setback because he's simply gonna be a guy that has good stuff but doesn't have the command to go deep in games and is gonna slot into relief. This isn't some rare phenomenon caused by COVID.

[Oxy]

11 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It's one thing to trade Corbin burnes. I understand the need for the team to trade that player, but you gotta do better than this. I view it similar to the Hoskins signing. Allocating payroll to 1b makes sense, I just have concerns about the ACL and wonder if the deal was a good one.

Regardless of my thoughts on the trade, trading burnes is a very clear indication that the way the Brewers win baseball games is going to have to be different going forward. There's gonna need to be a lot more 8-5 wins than 4-2 wins this year if we are gonna be any good.

It's not a clear indication of anything.  Burnes was good last year...but as a previous post laid out he didn't actually win games for the Brewers.  They were like 17-14 when he started, or something like that.  The defense is a big reason for all of our pitcher's success. 

[Brewcrew82]

24 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Lol are you serious? Holliday started the year in low a as a 19 year old. That has literally nothing to do with anything at the MLB level. Ortiz spent all of 2022 and 2023 at the MLB level, had pretty solid production, yet the Orioles still thought Mr 607 OPS was a better option. If the Os thought this guy could hit major league pitching, he could have had a chance in 2022 or 2023. If you want to make the argument that the Orioles are stupid and made a bad decision with him, fine. If you think they are at minimum a remotely competent front office(with this trade, this seems obvious), then they probably don't think this guy is gonna hit MLB pitching.

Lol. It’s the same logic you’re applying. That because someone couldn’t supplant a guy with a .607 OPS it automatically means they’re a bust. That’s the only reason it seems crazy. 

I don’t know where you’re getting your facts from, but Ortiz most definitely did not spend all of 2022 and 2023 in MLB….

Also, you do realize that the Orioles had Gunnar Henderson playing SS ahead of Ortiz, too? And Jordan Westburg in the infield, too. He was quite simply blocked by Orioles stacked infield talent. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

True impact talent tends to get to MLB sooner. You pointing out one case of a 25 year old coming up and being a star doesn't change that. You're also making way too much of COVID, has there been a significant change in pattern of prospects coming up? COVID halted the minor leagues for one year and all of a sudden all the prospects had a massive setback? Or, maybe hall had a setback because he's simply gonna be a guy that has good stuff but doesn't have the command to go deep in games and is gonna slot into relief. This isn't some rare phenomenon caused by COVID.

Uhhh, it’s pretty much been universally recognized within the prospect industry that COVID delayed and fudged up development timelines considering there wasn’t even a minor league season….

[Fear The Chorizo]

26 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Lol are you serious? Holliday started the year in low a as a 19 year old. That has literally nothing to do with anything at the MLB level. Ortiz spent all of 2022 and 2023 at the MLB level, had pretty solid production, yet the Orioles still thought Mr 607 OPS was a better option. If the Os thought this guy could hit major league pitching, he could have had a chance in 2022 or 2023. If you want to make the argument that the Orioles are stupid and made a bad decision with him, fine. If you think they are at minimum a remotely competent front office(with this trade, this seems obvious), then they probably don't think this guy is gonna hit MLB pitching.

2022 was Ortiz's 2nd full minor league season, which also happened to be when the Orioles were just crawling out from their Astros-esque prospect hoarding doldrums and started having to call guys up to the majors because they were out of room stockpiling talent down on the farm while their MLB team was losing 100+ games a season.

And I'd wager the Orioles' decision to trade Ortiz is 1% based on what their opinion of what he could be as an everyday MLB shortstop/middle infielder offensively, and 99% to do with realizing Ortiz is totally blocked at that position by two other players who project to be better than him, and basically all other MLB shortstops.

To your other post - I'm not saying Covid caused prospects to regress in development, but I do think it caused them delays in being MLB-ready products and leads to difficulty projecting what their prime production seasons will look like.  You're right, HOF-caliber talent starts playing baseball at the major league level younger than 25....it's also untradeable for a veteran pitcher with 1 year left of team control before reaching free agency, no matter how great the pitcher was 3 years ago when he won a Cy Young while only having to take the ball every 6th day due to a deep rotation and bullpen.