Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[wallus]

4 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Pitching and defense didn't work? Let's sign Soler and just try to hit our way to the playoffs.

Maybe Soler is a real possibility (logically could be the "mystery" team) and Arnold took the trade to clear the payroll space. 

[StearnsFTW]

As mentioned earlier, 5/125 for Jordan Montgomery.  Can afford that easily this season. 

 

Doubt he'd sign first that but it's in the ballpark. 

 

It's also very unlikely they'd offer that, but I can dream. 

 

If they trade Adames, they're ~$32MM below last year's payroll.

[homer]

44 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

In case some are forgetting, here's what MLB had to say on Hall after the 2022 season:

At full strength in 2022 after a rebuilding program and the organization erring more on the side of caution with holding him out for so long a year ago, Hall’s stuff has continued to be absolutely nasty, with a fastball routinely up to 101 mph and a fading changeup that flashes plus.

saw somewhere he had the #2 rated fastball in the minors. #1? Misiorowski

[nate82]

22 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Pitching and defense didn't work? Let's sign Soler and just try to hit our way to the playoffs.

Doug is that you?

[wallus]

To be fair, the defense should still be good.

[jay87shot]

Adames, Williams, Milner, Yelich all possible to be dealt.

Adames and Bryse Wilson for Edward Cabrera (we eat 1/2 contract)

Milner for Abrimelac Ortiz

Yelich to Giants for Conforto, Keaton Winn, Mason Black/Hayden Birdsong

Williams trade mid-season 

[thebruce44]

I'm tired, so I used ChatGPT pulled together my random thoughts:

The Brewers having Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for 5 years, plus Freddy Peralta, and only getting something like a 1-7 postseason record out of it is very disappointing. COVID hit at the worst possible time, potentially disrupting their development and MLB innings buildup.

Despite this, moving on was, in my opinion, the right call. It'll be interesting to see how COVID's shortened seasons with young pitchers will be analyzed in the future.

There's also a silver lining. The unique challenges presented by COVID could offer insights into which players to target moving forward-- namely older prospects, especially if held back for younger options. On paper, Hall has the makings of an elite pitcher if he's backed by better analytics. Then there's Ortiz, who, at a minimum, can provide elite defense at SS and has been forgotten within the best minor league system in baseball.

I'm inclined to give the Brewers FO the benefit of the doubt here as they have had a lot of success with these types of players in the past. I get the frustration, but I'm also excited to see the outcome.

 

[iKezims]

Hall's stuff is super intriguing and at least should be penciled in to make an impact right away - I hope they have starting aspirations as the pen seems to be in pretty straightforward shape right now. Obviously, time will tell but I am fine rolling the dice of six years of a guy with an on-paper elite fastball. He fared well out of the pen last summer - scoreless in 13/16 appearances between Aug-Oct with one bad appearance inflating everything (3 earned). He also only walked 5 in 19 innings. I keep seeing reports of "control issues" - I know it is just on paper, but doesn't seem to be that glaring of an issue to me? 

I also fail to understand the constant reference to "glove-first" comments on Ortiz. He has 33 career at-bats in the MLB and none are consistently in a row... Shouldn't we just toss this sample? He's hit at every level of the minor leagues and raked at AAA last year - he hit .321 and even slugged .507 in 389 at-bats with a sub 18% K rate - that's a big sample. 

I guess my point is looking at Ortiz's '22 and '23 MiLB numbers this seems like a guy that most people would be super excited about acquiring and yet I don't get that vibe here at all because I just see people here (and Twitter) referencing a 33 at-bat MLB sample. Seems if this is a "glove-first" guy, then the bat should surprise us.

Sad to lose Burnes, but I really do not know what more people were expecting to get in a trade for him as a rental. I know the response is "wait until the deadline" but players get hurt, his value could have dropped, etc. There are variables always at play - I think this trade is pretty solid. Wish Coby Mayo was a part of it, but hopefully we look back in six months and have positives to say about it. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ortiz is simply a victim of his best position being SS with a MLB ceiling of being an above average player there, and he was still hopelessly blocked and about to be leapfrogged by more talented players in a system that is insanely loaded at that position.  To me it's vaguely comparable to the Brewers trading for Adames when it was apparent Wander Franco was arriving there - only Ortiz was already blocked by Henderson at the MLB level. 

Hall, to me, is the centerpiece of the return simply due to his arm talent - but that's not knocking Ortiz.  Add in the 34th pick in this season's draft and I think it's a pretty solid return for Burnes, actually. 

[sveumrules]

31 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

I'm tired, so I used ChatGPT pulled together my random thoughts:

The Brewers having Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for 5 years, plus Freddy Peralta, and only getting something like a 1-7 postseason record out of it is very disappointing.

ChatGPT needs help, Brewers went 7-12 in the postseason during the Burnes/Woody plus Freddy years.

Sure, they’re only 1-9 over their last ten postseason games going back to Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS, but whatcha gonna do, even the mighty Dodgers are only 2-8 in their last ten postseason games. Same record as the small market ideal Rays over their last ten.

For all their money the Yankees are 3-7, with all their devil magic the Cardinals are 1-9, (and neither even made it at all last year), heck, the best in baseball Braves are 2-6 since winning the 2021 WS.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Because the Brewers FO thinks the sum total of all moves made so far (and maybe even some yet to be made) will allow them to remain competitive in 2024 while also increasing their chances of competing in 2025 and beyond.

This move coupled with the Hoskins move is basically playing for 80 wins. Trading burnes/Williams/Adames and playing for 70 wins makes sense. Signing Hoskins and a couple others and playing for 87-90 wins makes sense. This doesn't make sense. These two moves come off as a guy clicking buttons with no plan. Feel free to try and put lipstick on a pig if you insist, this plan is going to lead to mediocrity or worse long term

[KeithStone53151]

I feel like the Brewers could trade for a cy young pitcher every year if this is the going rate for 1 year of a cy young pitcher, it's so darn cheap the farm would have no trouble keeping up churning out solid middle relievers and hernan Perez 2.0.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This move coupled with the Hoskins move is basically playing for 80 wins. Trading burnes/Williams/Adames and playing for 70 wins makes sense. Signing Hoskins and a couple others and playing for 87-90 wins makes sense. This doesn't make sense. These two moves come off as a guy clicking buttons with no plan. Feel free to try and put lipstick on a pig if you insist, this plan is going to lead to mediocrity or worse long term

That's interesting because holding Burnes and losing him for nothing is more likely to lead to mediocrity or worse long term imo. 

We got two top 100 prospects and a first round pick. That's fair value for 1 year of a top 10 MLB starter.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Because the Brewers FO thinks the sum total of all moves made so far (and maybe even some yet to be made) will allow them to remain competitive in 2024 while also increasing their chances of competing in 2025 and beyond.

There you go again, taking the time to think things through.

Do we actually need to TEACH you how to jump off a bridge??

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Seriously, the most relative points I saw through these many pages are 1) The propensity to overvalue someone who is on the last year of his contract and 2) The regression of Burnes over the last few seasons--still a quality upper-rotation guy, but a regression nonetheless. There are no secrets; teams see that stuff. These two points are what kept us from being able to slather the hot corner with Mayo. 

My guess is we aren't done yet.

[sveumrules]

31 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

this plan is going to lead to mediocrity or worse long term

This plan is essentially the same one the Brewers have been running since 2017, a seven season stretch during which they’ve won the 6th most games in MLB.

Given the front office’s track record of knowing what they’re doing more often than not, combined with the highly ranked farm system they’ve assembled without the benefit of high draft picks, I feel pretty good about their odds of avoiding long term mediocrity or worse.

The first wave way back in the day was all hitters and Yo, the second wave was all pitchers and Orlando. This next wave looks to have the best mix of both.

The writing has been on the wall for the the end of this era since trade deadline 2022, bring on the new.

I’m excited to see how exactly the wave crests or crashes.

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Fire this GM please, dude is freaking clueless

It’s kind of a short track record at only one season, but here’s how Arnold fared in his first year…

The Good (13 players at +19.8 WAR)
Contreras (5.4 WAR), Miley (3.4 rWAR), Payamps (1.8 rWAR), Wilson (1.4 rWAR), Rea (1.3 rWAR), Perkins (1.2 WAR), Peguero (1.0 rWAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.9 WAR), Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Santana (0.7 WAR), Anderson (0.5 WAR), Megill (0.4 rWAR)

The Bad (6 players at -2.7 WAR)
Winker (-0.8 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR), Singleton (-0.4 WAR), Chafin (-0.4 rWAR), Varland (-0.4 rWAR), Tapia (-0.3 WAR)

Looks line Arnold came out about 17 wins ahead on his transactions last year.

[SomewhereInTime]

6 hours ago, brewers888 said:

The Brewers have been favored or close to it to win the division the last 5 years or so. I'm sure its been quite awhile since the O/U for wins was as low as 78.5.

I was shocked to find them still at +600 for the division last week so of course I put a bet down.  I should've known that would guarantee the Burnes trade to happen.

[bigred]

What most fans thought they'd get for Burnes, is a classic example of fans letting their emotions cloud their sense of reality, of what the Crew would actually get in return. 

[narwhalattack]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

This plan is essentially the same one the Brewers have been running since 2017, a seven season stretch during which they’ve won the 6th most games in MLB.

Given the front office’s track record of knowing what they’re doing more often than not, combined with the highly ranked farm system they’ve assembled without the benefit of high draft picks, I feel pretty good about their odds of avoiding long term mediocrity or worse.

The first wave way back in the day was all hitters and Yo, the second wave was all pitchers and Orlando. This next wave looks to have the best mix of both.

The writing has been on the wall for the the end of this era since trade deadline 2022, bring on the new.

I’m excited to see how exactly the wave crests or crashes.

IMO the team has been pretty good, but hasn’t been quite good enough get over the hump. I don’t think they’ll settle into a stretch of mediocrity, but it’s hard to be optimistic that they’ll become much better than they already have been. Feels like the payroll has been relatively unchanged for the past several years- I feel like the limit has been hovering around $100m ever since I was in high school. And I’m almost 30 now. I don’t expect the Brewers to financially compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees, but this kind of status quo feels more like a “We’re just happy to be reasonably competitive” mentality. This offseason in particular seems to lack a strong direction- just the FO seemingly trying to make the team look mildly competitive.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Seriously, the most relative points I saw through these many pages are 1) The propensity to overvalue someone who is on the last year of his contract and 2) The regression of Burnes over the last few seasons--still a quality upper-rotation guy, but a regression nonetheless. There are no secrets; teams see that stuff. These two points are what kept us from being able to slather the hot corner with Mayo. 

My guess is we aren't done yet.

Quote

 

Burnes is every bit an ace. Don’t take it from me. Take it from the industry experts who voted him last spring as Gerrit Cole’s equal and a top-three starter in the sport.

“Cerebral,” a scout said at the time. “Durable. Damn good. He’s got it all.”

 

That's from the Athletic. The standard for a starting pitcher shouldn't be 'is he coming off his BEST season.'

He's clearly viewed as an elite pitcher. The "regression" from his CY Young award included top 8 finishes in voting each year, a WHIP under 1 until the league hit better this year and he was just over 1.0...and he led the league. 

He's durable, he's going to give you 200 innings a year, strike out 200 and he's going to pitch like an ace. 

 

I don't get how it's often the same people saying he's going to get 300M, he's priced himself out...who will also say he's no longer an ace or he's regressed? I don't think teams too notice of his "decline," and I think he's viewed as one of the top pitchers in the game. I think what's more likely is that...teams don't really care about the rankings(they'll use it to hype a player, but really, that's not what they look at when they're trading for someone) and they have their own. 

The Brewers...I HOPE simply viewed Hall as a guy who they could "fix," and get him to throw more than 50-60 innings a season while also getting a pretty high floor SS(or 2B/3B) who also has a relatively high ceiling and then moving their draft capital up a year. 

 

[BrewerFan]

6 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

IMO the team has been pretty good, but hasn’t been quite good enough get over the hump. I don’t think they’ll settle into a stretch of mediocrity, but it’s hard to be optimistic that they’ll become much better than they already have been. Feels like the payroll has been relatively unchanged for the past several years- I feel like the limit has been hovering around $100m ever since I was in high school. And I’m almost 30 now. I don’t expect the Brewers to financially compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees, but this kind of status quo feels more like a “We’re just happy to be reasonably competitive” mentality. This offseason in particular seems to lack a strong direction- just the FO seemingly trying to make the team look mildly competitive.

Payroll was over 138 last year and over 135 the previous year. A prorated 115 for 2020. It WAS down to 105 in '21 after they lost money, but a little hard to blame them for that, no?

[narwhalattack]

3 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Payroll was over 138 last year and over 135 the previous year. A prorated 115 for 2020. It WAS down to 105 in '21 after they lost money, but a little hard to blame them for that, no?

If that’s true, then I stand corrected. It’s still a bit of a bitter pill to swallow to have to send away home grown talent once they reach the peak.

I hope that there will be more moves coming soon, because this offseason has been a bit of a head-scratcher for me.

[Robocaller]

As soon as Woodruff was lost for the season, I wanted Burnes and Adames traded for market value or better.

Of course I would have liked more than what they got--like if the two guys were a year younger, or they added a promising but flawed pitcher who played in A ball last year.

But if we kept Burnes, all we would be getting is a draft pick for him. So the two players we got have to have more value in 2024-2029 than Burnes would have given us in 2024. That will likely be the case. We could end up huge winners. If we believe in our pitching lab, we'll definitely be big winners.

Those of you who think we lost this on value don't know how players are valued. Of course, we should win on value because we gave up the biggest value player.

Now let's see what we can get for Adames.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, narwhalattack said:

If that’s true, then I stand corrected. It’s still a bit of a bitter pill to swallow to have to send away home grown talent once they reach the peak.

To be fair, Burnes reached his peak in 2021.