Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[folly412]

Kind of like getting the pick compensation for losing Burnes early, with the plus of two guys who will be expected to contribute this year and many more.  Seems ok for one year.  Though I'm usually not a fan of "Major League-ready" returns, I'll trust Hook to make something out of DL Hall.

[KeithStone53151]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

This plan is essentially the same one the Brewers have been running since 2017, a seven season stretch during which they’ve won the 6th most games in MLB.

Given the front office’s track record of knowing what they’re doing more often than not, combined with the highly ranked farm system they’ve assembled without the benefit of high draft picks, I feel pretty good about their odds of avoiding long term mediocrity or worse.

The first wave way back in the day was all hitters and Yo, the second wave was all pitchers and Orlando. This next wave looks to have the best mix of both.

The writing has been on the wall for the the end of this era since trade deadline 2022, bring on the new.

I’m excited to see how exactly the wave crests or crashes.

Matt Arnold has been there, but he hasn't been GM for the time period you described. I can't recall Stearns making such a big trade that looked so stupid on paper.

[liveforoctober]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I think people are really underrating the #34 pick. That is a REALLY good selection to have. That’s basically a first round pick and adds a lot of bonus pool money. Whoever we select isn’t some lottery ticket…that’s a legit prospect with really good potential.

Is there a cliff notes version website or can someone explain this part to me? I don't quite grasp the bonus pool money and how it can fluctuate, how much each team has, etc

[homer]

4 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Is there a cliff notes version website or can someone explain this part to me? I don't quite grasp the bonus pool money and how it can fluctuate, how much each team has, etc

Quote

The Brewers don't pick until 17th overall in this July's draft, but because the extra slot money attached to the 34th pick (around $2.5 million typically) gives them one of the largest overall pools of cash of any team, they're able to allocate it more liberally. Not only might that allow them to sign higher-end prep players that fall to later rounds due to signability concerns as they did in 2023, but they could even "buy" down a player projected to go in the top 10 by promising a significant overslot bonus at pick 17.

 

[brewerfan82]

5 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Calling these guys top 100 prospects is quite hilarious, Both guys have struggled mightily at the MLB level to this point and are barely still on prospect ratings. This is not an argument in good faith. It would be more accurate to say these guys were previously top 100 prospects that are trending towards being busts.

Well they are both currently on top 100 lists (Hall on Baseball America's list, and Ortiz on MLB's list). Also "struggled mightily at the MLB level" is strong/inaccurate for one guy that has 4.36 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 11.45 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, and 0.8 fWAR in only 33 IP in the majors, and another guy that only has 34 PAs in the majors.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just now, brewerfan82 said:

Well they are both currently on top 100 lists (Hall on Baseball America's list, and Ortiz on MLB's list). Also "struggled mightily at the MLB level" is strong/inaccurate for one guy that has 4.36 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 11.45 K/9, 3.00 K/9, 0.55 HR/9, and 0.8 fWAR in only 33 IP in the majors, and another guy that only has 34 PAs in the majors.

Agreed....getting feet wet in the major leagues is no sample to make grand projections.  Hall pitched in two playoff games against the Rangers and looked pretty damn electric last October, too.

 

[Harold Hutchison]

14 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Serious question... For those worried about the "mixed signals" and "lack of direction" shown this offseason, even if the Brewers had decided it was in the best interest of the team to trade Burnes going into the offseason and knew he'd be gone, what is the downside of signing Hoskins? Are you just worried about draft position?

Otherwise, I don't see any reason to complain about a team that is looking out for it's longterm health while also fielding a competitive team in the present. I could see the argument if we had some big time first base prospect that was getting blocked by the pickup, but that isn't the case (maybe in a year or two, but likely not for the duration of Hoskins contract).

This is still a pretty decent team on paper with a lot of exciting young talent and the division is still wide open. I don't see a reason to completely tear down the roster and not try to compete this year just because we have some expiring contracts that have/or may get moved to help the future of the franchise.

Absolutely.

Gasser doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. He could very well be in the 2024 rotation. Ashby will be back - and he could also be an asset in the rotation. Peralta-Miley-Ross-Ashby-Rea-Gasser is still pretty solid, and Carlos Rodriguez, Evan McKendry, Janson Junk, and Jacob Misiorowski are also options - even if DL Hall is staying in the pen to join Williams and Uribe as the 2024 equivalent of the Crew's "Nasty Boys" of 2018 (Knebel/Jeffress/Hader).

Ortiz either bumps Turang at second or takes over for Adames at short. If the former, that's an upgrade. If the latter, the Crew will likely have the return from the Adames deal to help out, too.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Matt Arnold has been there, but he hasn't been GM for the time period you described. I can't recall Stearns making such a big trade that looked so stupid on paper.

Hader for Ruiz/Gasser/Rogers/Limet was panned pretty heavily.

Many questioned giving up talented arms like Olson/Kelly for Norris/Bush at the very same deadline.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Scrolling through, reading reactions, I think this was the RIGHT move. Doesn't mean it's a great move. Return seems about fair. I wouldn't call Ortiz and Hall "lottery tickets," but they both have a ton of upside for big-league ready players. If one of them works out, it's a win long-term.

For those not sure they see the plan given the Hoskins signing, I get it. This move probably reduces our division odds slightly, but how much, really? In a division that's still pretty wide open? We are now pretty loaded on young position players, with an exciting roster, and a proven bat at 1B. Bullpen has a great track record. Rotation is a question mark. That's a good enough roster to win the Central next year if lots of things go right (which always has to happen in baseball). Plus, you get a bunch of control years.

Bottom line, for me, the Brewers are doing a reset. It's a soft reset. This is basically how the Rays have run for decades, and we are the NL's version of the Rays. Let's see what comes, but I, for one, am ready for a new style of Brewers baseball. Whether it results in as many wins next year or not, it's going to be nice to have some young, fast, talented position players and maybe an offense that can produce a bit more consistently.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

The organization just fixed their 2 biggest needs — plus fielding SS, that can also hit & future playoff starter.

Adding the comp pick to this years draft just gets even more talent added to a farm system that even after graduating Chourio-Black-Gasser, should remain among the top 5-8 systems in the game.

Incredible time to be a Brewers fan.

This guy gets it. Cheers.

[MrTPlush]

50 minutes ago, homer said:

 

And for example sake:

Last year the Marlins held the #35 pick in the draft. At #10 they got Noble Meyer to sign $1mil under slot. They then used those savings to give the #35 pick Thomas White almost $1.5mil overshot. White was ranked in high teens to low twenties for the draft. His eventual signing bonus was equivalent to pick #17.

Teams usually know what kind of bonus guys are looking for going into the draft. A lot of high school guys will only sign for 1st rounder money or sometimes 2nd rounder money to be swayed from college. So there is a lot of opportunity to pick up a guy you had high on your board that falls to the 2nd or 3rd round...but you need the bonus pool money to give them the 1/2 round money they want. On the flip side a guy projected for a round much later than when he is picked usually will take the money where he was projected, not where he was selected.

The most infamous year I can recall the Brewers doing this was the year they apparently loved Kodi Medeiros. He wasn't projected anywhere near the first half of the first round, so we saved crazy bonus pool money on him. We then got Jake Gatewood and Monte Harrison. At the time most fans gushed over the haul, as did many experts. Getting Gatewood and Harrison after the first was considered quite a haul. Hopefully I am recalling that story right and the players involved.

Of course we played that game last year giving 2nd round money to Pratt (6th rounder). 2nd round money or he was going off to Ole Miss. 

 

[Outlander]

It's nice they have another potential replacement for Adames, Turang wasn't going to be that guy. Will be interesting to see how much time Ortiz gets at both 2B and 3B if Adames sticks around. Can't say I know a ton about Hall but appears he will go the way of Hader and stay in the bullpen, another potential high end reliever along with Uribe whenver they decide to trade Williams. Also good to get that 34 pick in 2024 instead of having to wait until 2025 for the pick that would have been for Burnes.

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Calling these guys top 100 prospects is quite hilarious, Both guys have struggled mightily at the MLB level to this point and are barely still on prospect ratings. This is not an argument in good faith. It would be more accurate to say these guys were previously top 100 prospects that are trending towards being busts.

 Ortiz had 33 MLB at bats. holy small sample size. Also Hall's relief stats are not that bad in 2023. 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

That 34th pick can be huge.  If you convert that into a top 100 prospect, then you’ve received three top 100’s.  

That’s a huge IF though, even in a loaded draft class it’s a crapshoot after the first 15-20 picks. Further, the Brewers have made a lot of selections, supplemental or otherwise,  near  the back of the first round with pretty underwhelming results. Jake Odorizzi (#32 in ‘08) Mitch Haniger (#38 in ‘12) being the best of the bunch, though neither ever played for the Brewers.  Evan Fredrickson was #35 overall in ‘08, Kentrail Davis #39 in ‘09, Henry Gatewood #41 in ‘14, Nathan Kirby #40 in ‘15 and Tristen Lutz was #34 overall in ‘17;  none of them saw major league action. Ethan Small was #28 in ‘19 and just got DFA’d.  I’m not knocking the trade, but really it’s two players and an extra roll of the dice for Corbin Burnes.

[ctmyers]

3 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Absolutely.

Gasser doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. He could very well be in the 2024 rotation. Ashby will be back - and he could also be an asset in the rotation. Peralta-Miley-Ross-Ashby-Rea-Gasser is still pretty solid, and Carlos Rodriguez, Evan McKendry, Janson Junk, and Jacob Misiorowski are also options - even if DL Hall is staying in the pen to join Williams and Uribe as the 2024 equivalent of the Crew's "Nasty Boys" of 2018 (Knebel/Jeffress/Hader).

Ortiz either bumps Turang at second or takes over for Adames at short. If the former, that's an upgrade. If the latter, the Crew will likely have the return from the Adames deal to help out, too.

Nothing guarantees Ortiz is better than Turang at second.  Ortiz is an older prospect who wasn't all that impressive in the minors and obviously didn't show much during his cup of coffee at the ML level.  

[Austin Tatious]

13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s a huge IF though, even in a loaded draft class it’s a crapshoot after the first 15-20 picks. Further, the Brewers have made a lot of selections, supplemental or otherwise,  near  the back of the first round with pretty underwhelming results. Jake Odorizzi (#32 in ‘08) Mitch Haniger (#38 in ‘12) being the best of the bunch, though neither ever played for the Brewers.  Evan Fredrickson was #35 overall in ‘08, Kentrail Davis #39 in ‘09, Henry Gatewood #41 in ‘14, Nathan Kirby #40 in ‘15 and Tristen Lutz was #34 overall in ‘17;  none of them saw major league action. Ethan Small was #28 in ‘19 and just got DFA’d.  I’m not knocking the trade, but really it’s two players and an extra roll of the dice for Corbin Burnes.

That’s entirely fair.  But I made that point with more recent drafting in mind under the current regime, with guys like Tyler Black, who went around 34, and Jacob M who went even a bit later.  In terms of the draft, I have liked our process much more in recent years.  In prior regimes, the FO members would come out in the media and talk about how they liked tall, protectable starting pitchers like Jungmann, Bradley, Fredrickson, and Eric Arnett.   They had a type and it failed spectacularly.   

The current regime has been drafting with much more sophistication.  Some of these young guys are bubbling up now and time will tell how they all do.  But right now I am far more bullish on our process than what we were doing 10 or more years ago.  

[brewerfan82]

7 minutes ago, ctmyers said:

Nothing guarantees Ortiz is better than Turang at second.  Ortiz is an older prospect who wasn't all that impressive in the minors and obviously didn't show much during his cup of coffee at the ML level.  

I think you're underselling his minor league performance:

• 2019 - A (-0.9 age vs. league average), .241/.341/.267, 96 wRC+
• 2021 - A+ (-0.9), .289/.382/.434, 123 wRC+
• 2021 - AA (-1.9), .233/.313/.467, 111 wRC+
• 2022 - AA (-0.9), .269/.337/.455, 115 wRC+
• 2022 - AAA (-3.4), .346/.400/.567, 154 wRC+
• 2023 - AAA (-2.3), .321/.378/.507, 121 wRC+

That's some pretty consistent well above average offense while being younger than league average every season. Throw in elite defense and you've got a pretty nice player there.

[patrickgpe]

22 minutes ago, ctmyers said:

Nothing guarantees Ortiz is better than Turang at second.  Ortiz is an older prospect who wasn't all that impressive in the minors and obviously didn't show much during his cup of coffee at the ML level.  

Ortiz hit 321/378/885 in triple A last year and has shown a good glove,  what would impress you?

[MrTPlush]

The fact some of you guys are hammering the guy for his lack of success in less than 50 MLB ABs is a bit ridiculous, don't yah think?

There has got to be a dozen better arguments with some kind of relevant substance than that. 

 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The 34th pick allows the Brewers the flexibility of going wayyy overslot at the 17th pick. Now lets just hope a very talented but tough to sign player falls that far then I'll be somewhat content with the package for one year of Burnes.

[wibadgers23]

12 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The fact some of you guys are hammering the guy for his lack of success in less than 50 MLB ABs is a bit ridiculous, don't yah think?

There has got to be a dozen better arguments with some kind of relevant substance than that. 

 

Yeah he’s put up very respectable numbers in the minor leagues. He’s been a doubles machine the past couple of years in AA and AAA and doesn’t strikeout a ton. Add in his elite glove and he can be someone to get excited about.

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The fact some of you guys are hammering the guy for his lack of success in less than 50 MLB ABs is a bit ridiculous, don't yah think?

There has got to be a dozen better arguments with some kind of relevant substance than that. 

 

No - because since it was the Orioles who traded for 1 season of Burnes, the Brewers should have gotten two of Holiday/Mayo/Henderson + the draft pick....even though any 1 of those guys would be a massive overpay from Baltimore's perspective. 

[RobertCrawley]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

Exactly. The Brewers couldn’t waste the opportunity to add a ton of future value for the “feel good experience” of holding Burnes until he walked in free agency. 
 

I said from the start of the offseason that I expected a MLB ready pitcher in return, and they got one. Fangraphs has Hall slated for 1.3 WAR, but that’s with him spending around half the time in the ‘pen. Hopefully he can get around 2 WAR as a full-time starter. Add in Hoskins’ expected 2 WAR, and you’ve matched the expected 4 WAR from Burnes for less money. Throw in another top prospect in Ortiz, and you’ve got 12 years of discount-priced production to add to the loads of young talent already on the roster. 
 

Woodruff got hurt. That’s no one’s fault, it just happened and we have to deal with it. Hoskins signing was akin to the Avi Garcia signing. It wasn’t an “all in” move, it was a “we don’t have an MLB-caliber 1B on the roster, so let’s get one” move. Hoskins was a free agent, so we’re paying him what he’s worth. Burnes is playing on a seriously discounted deal, so he had tons of surplus value. That’s why it makes sense to trade Burnes while signing Hoskins. 
 

As of right now, we’re probably about the same talent level as we were to start the offseason (Woodruff was already hurt then). However, we should have more balance between pitching and hitting and a lot of reason to believe that we won’t take a big step back after this season is over. It also opens the door to an Adames trade prior to opening day, as Ortiz should be able to match his production. Or, if there isn’t a big market for Adames, we could take a bit of a step forward offensively by replacing Turang with Ortiz. 

At the end of the day, we’re still a good bet to win the division this year, and we have a lot better chance of being really good over the next 5-6 years as our young, talented players mature.

Finally, if the team feels that Amazon is going to make sure they get paid their TV money this year, they might have some extra cash to add another veteran starter. The rotation does have some questions, so another proven arm couldn’t hurt. We won’t have much payroll on the books for a while, so a 1-3 year deal should be easy to cover. 

I'm surprised people would think we are a good bet to win the division. We are thin at starting pitching. We're going to lose a lot of games unless we can do something about that.

[brewmann04]

I am sure what happened to Brandon got this team scared to hold onto him at least to the Trade Deadline. But Now we are without our Two Co Aces and this is a big Issue as we have a lot of Questions with guys 2-5 slotted for this rotation

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, homer said:

Depending on how things shake out they may be better if they pitch for weak contact:

“If the Brewers go Ortiz at third, Adames at short and Brice Turang at second, that’s the best infield defense in baseball even with Rhys Hoskins at first,” the scout said.

Add that to an OF of Frelick/Mitchell/Chourio.

All they need is pitchers who keep the ball in the park.