Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[StearnsFTW]

Hall is not on the current top 100.   Whether it's graduation or performance I'm not sure.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Hall is not on the current top 100.   Whether it's graduation or performance I'm not sure.

Graduation everywhere except for BA, where he is currently ranked 93. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Mateo sits at exactly 4.000 service time.  Ortiz at .030.  There may have been some manipulation allowing Mateo to reach 4.0 and keeping Ortiz lower. He is afterall still prospect ranked.

As to prospect rankings, 2024 preseason rankings are coming out so 2023 rankings are be altered.

[Brewcrew82]

FWIW, Ortiz and Hall's Steamer projections are really nice....

Ortiz (Steamer600): .266/.318/.403, 100 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR (tied with Yelich for 3rd highest on the team)

Hall: 3.59 ERA/3.84 FIP in 123 innings, 2.3 fWAR (2nd highest on the team after Freddy)

 

[Underachiever]

10 hours ago, Jenkins5 said:

 

Really the only people crapping on the players we got and the deal are Brewer fans.

Our division rival fans really think the Brewers messed up, fwiw. Go to Gateway Redbirds, Northside Baseball, or Redszone. I always find it interesting to read other message boards. 

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, homer said:

Not exactly apples to apples deals. The Padres also traded Grisham in that deal. And King is 28 years old and will be a free agent in 2026.

Anyway, hard to judge a trade until the dust settles in 3, 4  years.

I’d mention Juan Soto, while merely a rental, is on a hall of fame track with his production, Burnes, meanwhile, is a very good starting pitcher but wouldn’t be on anyone’s Hall of Fame watch list right now. 
 

Finally, the days of getting a young John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or a young Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon  are over. Even the most aggressive teams don’t trade their best blue chippers for veterans anymore. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

11 hours ago, Jenkins5 said:

Really the only people crapping on the players we got and the deal are Brewer fans.

 

This isn't really true at all. If I had a dollar for every fan of neither team who crapped on the Brewers for this trade, I'd be a very rich man. Not saying I agree with them, just pointing out that fans and baseball writers around the game have been very critical of what Milwaukee did. And many have rightfully questioned the Hoskins signing if this is what they were going to do so soon after. To me, it only makes sense if they've got something in the works to address the now frighteningly weak rotation.

I saw a post early in this thread that the 12 years of team control with Hall/Ortiz plus the draft pick make this a great deal for the Brewers given Burnes 1 year of control. Ummm, that's not at all how this works. If every prospect automatically gave you 6 solid years of MLB production, you'd never see a prospect dealt for a player this close to free agency. There is a much better chance that Hall and Ortiz provide negligible production than there is of them both providing 6 years of significant major league production. Especially given their age. Becoming full time major leaguers at 25 makes them exponentially more likely to be middling performers than becoming everyday, permanent major leaguers at 23.

I get that we all want to see things the Brewers do in the best possible light. To me, in this case, that means hoping the Brewers see something they can unlock in both players. Because the data points don't look good to the neutral observer. From an outside perspective, it looks like the Brewers closed their window a year early on the hopes of 3 pieces of which individually the most likely outcome is middling performer at best. The Brewers obviously expect more than that and hopefully what they've spotted in at least one of them (or the pick outcome) is right.

[brewers888]

The lesson to be learned from all of this is to either sign guys early and buy out a few free agent years or trade guys with 2 years of control left. Very few teams are willing to overpay for one season of even a top of the rotation starter like Burnes. The mistake is not trading Burnes its not trading him a year earlier for what would have been a better return.

What exactly is the plan with this team. Why sign Hoskins and then trade Burnes. This rotation has gone from top 5 or so in the sport to possibly bottom five. No team with Wade Miley as a number two in a rotation is a serious contender not even in the lousy division that this team plays in. The O/U for this team is  75.5 telling you that the market thinks this is one of the worst teams in baseball and certainly not a contender.

I for one have wanted to trade Burnes for awhile now just think they waited too long and as a result didn't get an impressive package for an ace.  

[KeithStone53151]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, because playoff teams haven't chosen to go with veterans over prospects before in a playoff chase....

Their preferred infield (and the one they featured in the postseason) was Urias at 3B, Henderson at SS, and Westburg at 2B. Mateo off the bench. That's the definition of being blocked my man.

What a bizarre narrative you're trying to spin that because Ortiz wasn't immediately installed as a starter in their infield the Orioles viewed him as a bust. 

Lol, narrative I'm trying to spin. They had a whole season to try Ortiz, nowhere did I say they had to immediately install him as a starter, nor did they need to wait until the stretch run. It should have been obvious by end of May that mateo wasn't it. His pattern was similar to Owen Miller last season. Miller was good in May, Mateo was good in April. Miller was effectively benched by July and the Brewers win in a pennant race. Your argument regarding urias would be better if he was an effective hitter. Him blocking a prospect is comparable to Hernan Perez blocking a prospect.

This is the second time you've moved the goal post and tried to change my argument. If the Orioles thought ortiz was a better option than Mr 607 and a utility guy, they had ample opportunity to do so and chose not to.

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The O/U for this team is  75.5 telling you that the market thinks this is one of the worst teams in baseball and certainly not a contender.

Vegas might not be the best prognosticator for the Brewers.

17 O/U: 70.5
17 wins: 86 (+15.5)

18 O/U: 83.5
18 wins: 95 (+11.5)

19 O/U: 86.5
19 wins: 89 (+2.5)

21 O/U: 83.5
21 wins: 95 (+11.5)

22 O/U: 90.5
22 wins: 86 (-3.5)

23 O/U: 85.5
23 wins: 92 (+6.5)

Five out of the six last seasons they’ve been low on the Brewers, three of those by over ten wins.

In aggregate they’ve undersold the Brewers by a total of 43 wins over the six full seasons of their recent competitive window.

[umphrey]

It didn’t help that Burnes is 100% unsignable. With Boras he’s a true rental, sometimes you can get more for a trade and sign. 
 

but overall I’m fine with it. It’s not the dream trade but 3 solid pieces in return is what we needed. Most sources I’ve read just call it a fair trade. The division rivals that are crapping on it are just thinking that it’s great they don’t have to face Burnes a few times next year, not thinking about infield or pitching depth for the next 6 years. 
 

With Burnes the only thing I was going to really crap on the Brewers for was if they held him too long and got nothing and they didn’t do that. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The reason why we need to wait on this is because the Brewers got a fourth thing in this trade $15M+.  Now if they dont use that money on the roster, then I'll be unhappy.  But they could go out a sign a SP or trade for one with a higher salary.  Need to wait and see what they do with that money.

[monty57]

20 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

This is solid information, and I love your optimism. I hope we somehow have a great season. But FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM all have us finishing 4th in a division of 5. So good bet?

I think you’re getting hung up on my vernacular. I’m not a gambler. Maybe I should have said “they still have a good shot at winning the division this year” rather than “they’re a good bet to win the division.” Someone who gambles would probably take my terminology to mean something different than what I meant. 
 

However, even though I don’t gamble, I’m tempted to put money on them at +1100 to win the division. 

[RobertCrawley]

29 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I think you’re getting hung up on my vernacular. I’m not a gambler. Maybe I should have said “they still have a good shot at winning the division this year” rather than “they’re a good bet to win the division.” Someone who gambles would probably take my terminology to mean something different than what I meant. 
 

However, even though I don’t gamble, I’m tempted to put money on them at +1100 to win the division. 

When you said "good bet," I thought about the odds. But I'm with you. I don't think the Brewers are done dealing, and some of our young guys might have really good seasons. So who knows. Maybe they are a good bet.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Our division rival fans really think the Brewers messed up, fwiw. Go to Gateway Redbirds, Northside Baseball, or Redszone. I always find it interesting to read other message boards. 

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

[homer]

25 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

I think general consensus is that the Brewers didn't get a commensurate return. But people always look at it in a vacuum. No one is gonna look back at this trade when the Brewers can sign a stud away from his college commitment during the draft.                

Even this Hader retrospective has the Padres "easily winning the trade".

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/news/a-lookback-the-padres-easily-won-the-josh-hader-trade-rks97

Quote

Another key addition often overshadowed was superstar closer Josh Hader, who was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers for Robert Gasser, Dinelson Lamet, Taylor Rogers and Esteury Ruiz.

Looking back at the trade, the Padres emerge as clear winners. None of the players traded to the Brewers made a significant impact in Milwaukee. 

Yeah I mean if you only look at the players acquired it looks bad. But dig a little deeper:

- The Brewers still have Gasser who may sneak into the rotation this year

- The Brewers traded Ruiz and got William Contreras and Joel Payamps

A back-end starter, very solid bullpen guy, and controllable all-star catcher seems like a decent return for a closer with one year left until free agency.

[RobertCrawley]

36 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

I didn't think I could hate the Cubs more, but now with "loyal Wisconsinite" Coun$ell there, the fire just Burnes more.

[brewers888]

10 minutes ago, homer said:

I think general consensus is that the Brewers didn't get a commensurate return. But people always look at it in a vacuum. No one is gonna look back at this trade when the Brewers can sign a stud away from his college commitment during the draft.                

Even this Hader retrospective has the Padres "easily winning the trade".

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/news/a-lookback-the-padres-easily-won-the-josh-hader-trade-rks97

Yeah I mean if you only look at the players acquired it looks bad. But dig a little deeper:

- The Brewers still have Gasser who may sneak into the rotation this year

- The Brewers traded Ruiz and got William Contreras and Joel Payamps

A back-end starter, very solid bullpen guy, and controllable all-star catcher seems like a decent return for a closer with one year left until free agency.

The original Hader trade was terrible for the Brewers and is only saved because Oakland for some stupid reason wanted Ruiz bad. Yes things worked out great for the Brewers but that is only due to Oakland bailing us out which doesn't change the fact that the original trade wasn't a good one. 

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

The lesson to be learned from all of this is to either sign guys early and buy out a few free agent years or trade guys with 2 years of control left. Very few teams are willing to overpay for one season of even a top of the rotation starter like Burnes. The mistake is not trading Burnes its not trading him a year earlier for what would have been a better return.

What exactly is the plan with this team. Why sign Hoskins and then trade Burnes. This rotation has gone from top 5 or so in the sport to possibly bottom five. No team with Wade Miley as a number two in a rotation is a serious contender not even in the lousy division that this team plays in. The O/U for this team is  75.5 telling you that the market thinks this is one of the worst teams in baseball and certainly not a contender.

I for one have wanted to trade Burnes for awhile now just think they waited too long and as a result didn't get an impressive package for an ace.  

 

The 2018 Brewers got within one game of the World Series with Wade Miley as the number two in the rotation.

[wallus]

2 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

The reason why we need to wait on this is because the Brewers got a fourth thing in this trade $15M+.  Now if they dont use that money on the roster, then I'll be unhappy.  But they could go out a sign a SP or trade for one with a higher salary.  Need to wait and see what they do with that money.

This is 100% true. There are a lot of guys available that could help us with that money. If they pocket that money, I will be very annoyed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

19 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The original Hader trade was terrible for the Brewers and is only saved because Oakland for some stupid reason wanted Ruiz bad. Yes things worked out great for the Brewers but that is only due to Oakland bailing us out which doesn't change the fact that the original trade wasn't a good one. 

Why is the emphasis here, though, on Oakland making a bad deal, instead of the Brewers making a good one? I get that your crazy troll schtick is to crap on everything the Brewers do, but this is over the top, even for you.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

The Cubs? no - the Reds? Probably....but its still about 2 months from opening day and I'd wager that rosters on paper now will look different then for teams, perhaps most notably in Milwaukee.  On top of that, young talent is very difficult to predict how it impacts wins and losses, and the Brewers are loaded with that right now.

At this exact moment I still fail to see the Cubs actually being better now than they were last season, btw.  They are paying their manager alot more, so they have that going for them I guess.

[wallus]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

The same Cubs that haven't added anyone of note and one of their better players from 2023 is still a free agent?

[jw5511986]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Cubs' Shot at Division Title Skyrocket After Trade (msn.com)

This site thinks it was a great deal...for the Cubs.

msn.com? Was there not an Alta Vista or Bing article you could find instead?

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Im still amazed there wasn't a 3rd player thrown in on the deal. Another pitcher that is projected as a RP.  You basically took 2 40man spots that were redundant for 1 much needed. So Baltimore can add a player via FA or another trade.  We had to dfa Small. Which again right there should have led to the RP in trade.