The Real Brewers Offense?

[BruisedCrew]

Everyone who follows the Brewers knows that their offense has been struggling to score runs for the last few weeks. A look at the MLB stats shows the Brewers 7th in runs scored per game at 4.91 runs per game and 4th in OPS+ at 114. That looks like a pretty solid offense.

But, Brewers fans know that the positive part of those numbers comes mostly from their hot start to the season (especially the stretch in which they scored 7 runs or more per game while winning 5 of 6 games).

I wanted to quantify how dramatically different the Brewers offense has been in the last 21 games (where they have gone 10-11) compared to the first 13 games (where they went 10-3).

In those first 13 games, the Brewers averaged 6.7 runs per game and scored 3 or more runs in every game. 

In the last 21 games they have averaged 3.8 runs per game while scoring 3 or fewer runs in 13 of those games

Given this run production, it is actually remarkable that they have won as many games as they have in this stretch. In their  low scoring games they have been shut out twice, are 1-1 when scoring 1 run, 2-2 when scoring 2 runs, and 2-3 when scoring 3 runs.

Baseball Reference no longer has the tables that show overall league records when scoring a specific number of runs. But, based on last year's percentages, this level of production would be expected to produce about 3 wins in these 13 games.

I don't expect the Brewers to return to the level of the first 13 games for any extended period. But, if it doesn't pick up significantly it's going to be very difficult to maintain the near .500 pace of the last 3 weeks. If the pitching slips it will be "look out below".

[wiguy94]

I wonder who hasn't played in the last 21  games.

[Brewcrew82]

Turns out you don't score as many runs when you lose your best hitter over an extended period. Chances are they won't score like they did over the first 13 games. But chances are they won't score like they have been the past few games. What makes this period without their best hitter "the real Brewers offense"?

[BruisedCrew]

It is difficult to establish an expectation for the Brewers offense because so many of their lineup regulars have no established record as major league hitters. Of the 12 players who account for most of their plate appearances this year, 6 of them (Frelick, Turang, Chourio, Perkins, Ortiz, and Dunn) have very short MLB careers and Bauers has established a record of mediocrity in his years as a part time player. 

Looking at the 12 regulars individually shows how remarkable those first 13 games were, and how much things have fallen in the last 21 games. Here is a listing of the 12 players in order of their number of plate appearances. The numbers after their names are: Season OPS/OPS in first 13 games/OPS in last 21 games.

Contreras  .914/1.058/.822

Adames  .791/.893/.722

Hoskins .749/.852/.688

Frelick  .636/.758/.554

Turang  .771/.939/.661

Chourio .619/.658/.586

Perkins .786/.878/.758

Ortiz . 812/.882/.768

Dunn .607/.744/.481

Bauers .618/.558/.671

Sanchez .781/.412/.950

Yelich  1.186/1.186/ X

This has truly been a team wide hitting slump.

 

 

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I wonder who hasn't played in the last 21  games.

 

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Turns out you don't score as many runs when you lose your best hitter over an extended period. Chances are they won't score like they did over the first 13 games. But chances are they won't score like they have been the past few games. What makes this period without their best hitter "the real Brewers offense"?

I didn't say the last 21 games were "the real Brewers offense". The question mark in the title and the text should have told you that I was posing the question and presenting facts and not drawing a conclusion.

But, I don't think you two think that (1) Yelich is going to produce an OPS close to 1.100 for a full season, and (2) Yelich's absence accounts for even a significant part of a drop of almost 3 runs per game. 

As my second post highlights, the veterans in the lineup (except for Sanchez who didn't play much) started out with production that they weren't likely to maintain. And they all regressed in the last 3 weeks. Most of the younger players also started out relatively hot and have fallen back. They don't have enough of a track record to know what to expect from them, but that was one of the big question marks for the offense coming into the season

[Brian]

27 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

It is difficult to establish an expectation for the Brewers offense because so many of their lineup regulars have no established record as major league hitters. Of the 12 players who account for most of their plate appearances this year, 6 of them (Frelick, Turang, Chourio, Perkins, Ortiz, and Dunn) have very short MLB careers and Bauers has established a record of mediocrity in his years as a part time player. 

Looking at the 12 regulars individually shows how remarkable those first 13 games were, and how much things have fallen in the last 21 games. Here is a listing of the 12 players in order of their number of plate appearances. The numbers after their names are: Season OPS/OPS in first 13 games/OPS in last 21 games.

Contreras  .914/1.058/.822

Adames  .791/.893/.722

Hoskins .749/.852/.688

Frelick  .636/.758/.554

Turang  .771/.939/.661

Chourio .619/.658/.586

Perkins .786/.878/.758

Ortiz . 812/.882/.768

Dunn .607/.744/.481

Bauers .618/.558/.671

Sanchez .781/.412/.950

Yelich  1.186/1.186/ X

This has truly been a team wide hitting slump.

 

 

26 games in 27 days and were only about 70% of the way through this stretch. This is poor MLB scheduling. Any team will get burnt out with this planning, but I'm sure every team will have one of these every season. Lucky it isn't 90 degrees out. 

[kestrel79]

I chalk up this sour stretch is from:

1) Key injuries in lineup and pitching staff

2) Scouting reports and video tape on how to expose/exploit our younger hitters/pitchers with little MLB experience

3) 26 games in 27 days stretch is a grind for any team

 

Do I think we will keep up the hitting pace of the first 13 games? No. Do I think we'll be as bad as we have been during this latest stretch? No. Somewhere in the middle depending on when we start to get healthy and who we call up that steps up and plays well down the stretch.

[Brewcrew82]

32 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

I didn't say the last 21 games were "the real Brewers offense". The question mark in the title and the text should have told you that I was posing the question and presenting facts and not drawing a conclusion.

But, I don't think you two think that (1) Yelich is going to produce an OPS close to 1.100 for a full season, and (2) Yelich's absence accounts for even a significant part of a drop of almost 3 runs per game. 

As my second post highlights, the veterans in the lineup (except for Sanchez who didn't play much) started out with production that they weren't likely to maintain. And they all regressed in the last 3 weeks. Most of the younger players also started out relatively hot and have fallen back. They don't have enough of a track record to know what to expect from them, but that was one of the big question marks for the offense coming into the season

I also never said they were going to go back to hitting at the rate of the first 13 games once Yelich returns. But adding your best hitter w/ an xwOBA of .460 seems pretty dang likely to lead to some positive regression for the offense as a whole. 

Rhys Hoskins, for example, is someone with a lengthy track record and a career OPS of .841 while currently sporting an OPS almost 100 points below that....

Youngsters carry downside for sure as we're currently witnessing. But they also carry significant upside. I would bet on some figuring it out to a varying extent, and the ones that don't will get less and less ABs as the season goes on. Benefit of having the Brewers' position player prospect depth. You're not pushing all your chips on one or two guys.

Anyways, to answer your question. Is this the real Brewers offense? Unlikely. It's almost certainly somewhere in the middle between the first 13 games and the last several weeks. Which is about where it ranks overall now. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Anyways, to answer your question. Is this the real Brewers offense? Unlikely. It's almost certainly somewhere in the middle between the first 13 games and the last several weeks. Which is about where it ranks overall now. 

My question wasn’t really so much  “Is this the real Brewers offense?” but “What is the real Brewers offense?”. A small difference.

I would hope it will be better than the last 3 weeks because otherwise it will be a long season.

When you say “about where it ranks overall now”,  do you think they’ll end up around 7th in MLB with about 4.9 runs per game?

 

 

[Samurai Bucky]

I tried to find some data to support this claim, but I was not able to navigate Baseball Savant well enough... Oh well...

As I watch the games, it seems like the Brewers are not going with the pitch as much as they used to.  Adames might be a good example.  Typically on strike zero or strike one, you would take a plus-plus swing.  That means you are trying to hit the ball hard.  It seems like Adames takes plus-plus swings all of the time.  Earlier in the year, he was focused more on getting good contact as opposed to destroying the ball.  Recently this yielded a lot of rollovers to the left side or the patented whiff at the slider low and away.  Of course, after finding a nice chart, it shows that his whiff rate is actually better than last year:  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/willy-adames-642715?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#yty

Chourio is another example.  His hips open a little more than they did when he was hitting better.  He pulls off the ball and isn't as effective.

I have a feeling this is a phase, and like @Brewcrew82 said, they are probably somewhere in the middle. 

[Brewcrew82]

30 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

My question wasn’t really so much  “Is this the real Brewers offense?” but “What is the real Brewers offense?”. A small difference.

I would hope it will be better than the last 3 weeks because otherwise it will be a long season.

When you say “about where it ranks overall now”,  do you think they’ll end up around 7th in MLB with about 4.9 runs per game?

 

 

I think they'll probably end up somewhere in the top 12-10 or so of offenses in terms of R/G, which is where they are now. There's some variables including health and the development of the youngsters that will push it up or down that scale.

[sveumrules]

In the 23 games since Yelich’s back flare up the Brewers have scored 4.22 R/G (4.35 R/G is MLB Average) with a 103 wRC+.

Compared to the 92 wRC+ they posted last year that’s still a pretty big step up.

As for what to expect rest of season, FanGraphs projects them to score 4.40 R/G from here on out.

PECOTA sees their true talent on offense somewhere around 732 runs scored on the season, take out the 173 they’ve already scored in 35 games and that also shakes out to 4.40 R/G for the remaining 127.

[owbc]

I would put it in the "very good but not elite" category for now (top 5-10 in MLB). I could see them regressing to "above average" (top 10-15 in MLB) but they are certainly no worse than that. 

[TURBO]

On 5/7/2024 at 2:10 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Turns out you don't score as many runs when you lose your best hitter over an extended period. Chances are they won't score like they did over the first 13 games. But chances are they won't score like they have been the past few games. What makes this period without their best hitter "the real Brewers offense"?

All true, however, we are at the point that we know, WE ABSOLUTELY KNOW, that Yelich is going to hit the IL 1-3 times a year.  We still don't seem to have a true offensive plan outside of watch the top free agents sign in the off season, then pick over the scraps and hope.

I get it, it's what we do, but if our offense rides on the back of a guy like Yelich, who simply can't be counted on for a complete season, then we have what we have now.  I mean, he can go down for 3 weeks to a month at anytime, now, next week, or right before a playoff run.

Our offense and it's success was going to depend on our young guys, and so far, that hasn't worked.

Thank God for Contreras!

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, TURBO said:

All true, however, we are at the point that we know, WE ABSOLUTELY KNOW, that Yelich is going to hit the IL 1-3 times a year.  We still don't seem to have a true offensive plan outside of watch the top free agents sign in the off season, then pick over the scraps and hope.

I get it, it's what we do, but if our offense rides on the back of a guy like Yelich, who simply can't be counted on for a complete season, then we have what we have now.  I mean, he can go down for 3 weeks to a month at anytime, now, next week, or right before a playoff run.

Our offense and it's success was going to depend on our young guys, and so far, that hasn't worked.

Thank God for Contreras!

We don't really "absolutely know" that Yelich is going to hit the IL 1-3 times a year considering the last two years he's played an average of 150 games. Could he hit the IL again this year? Sure, but it's not a guarantee. 

Nor do I agree we lack a "true offensive plan". Our offensive plan is to build around Yelich, Contreras, etc. and develop our new wave of young position player talent. We need to develop that talent as a small market team, and there's going to be some bumps along the way. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Nor do I agree we lack a "true offensive plan". Our offensive plan is to build around Yelich, Contreras, etc. and develop our new wave of young position player talent. We need to develop that talent as a small market team, and there's going to be some bumps along the way. 

That, and incorporate the SB & even the bunt when the situation presents itself. Other than the first game in Chicago it seems like we've gone away from that just a little bit.

If Turang stays in the leadoff spot (at least vs RHP) & does there what he's done up to this point that looks to me like a formidable top 3. Then it's up to people like Adames, Hoskins, Sanchez at times & whoever can step up among the younger guys. When the dust settles I see something like OWBC mentioned. 10-15 range.

[Jopal78]

Their roster is too thin, without options to turn to so a slap hitter like Frelick is 4th on the team in PAs. Chourio and Dunn have shown they’re not ready for the jump from AA to the majors. Because Hoskins cannot run or play a strong 1B they keep giving Bauers ABs, and in a Yelich injury and it all makes sense why they suddenly can’t score 

[Samurai Bucky]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Their roster is too thin, without options to turn to so a slap hitter like Frelick is 4th on the team in PAs. Chourio and Dunn have shown they’re not ready for the jump from AA to the majors. Because Hoskins cannot run or play a strong 1B they keep giving Bauers ABs, and in a Yelich injury and it all makes sense why they suddenly can’t score 

This is a byproduct of having a majority of your team having 0 or 1 year of MLB experience.  This was celebrated because of the great farm system, but the inconsistencies and frustrations are a result of having a very, very young team.

Were all of these guys ready to make the jump to the majors?  Probably not.  There still is (was) a misnomer that because the players in the farm system were so good, they would come up and consistently produce.  That doesn't happen as often as we would like.

The roster is going to be thin and, it is possible, that it has been thin for a while.  The Brewers starting pitchers were able to keep them competitive.  There is one "ace" left, one is injured, and one was traded for... young inconsistent players.  They will (hopefully) grow and develop and in a few years, the team will be very good.  At least that is my hope.

[sveumrules]

I don’t think the position player group is thin at all…

Veterans Performing (5)
Contreras (161 wRC+), Adames (129 wRC+), Hoskins (119 wRC+), Sanchez (145 wRC+), Yelich (187 wRC+)

Youngsters Performing (3)
Turang (138 wRC+), Perkins (118 wRC+), Ortiz (143 wRC+)

Young Struggling But Need PAs (2)
Frelick (87 wRC+), Chourio (74 wRC+)

After that Monasterio hasn’t done much in limited run this year, but is a perfectly cromulent 5th IF.

Bauers has lived up to expectations in the box (unfortunately) but is our only decent 1B in the field so I’m fine with him on the roster as the 12th/13th man now that Sanchez/Yelich are both healthy and playing.

Dunn should be playing in AAA everyday not only for his development but so Murphy doesn’t keep writing his name on the lineup card instead of Ortiz.

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I don’t think the position player group is thin at all…

Veterans Performing (5)
Contreras (161 wRC+), Adames (129 wRC+), Hoskins (119 wRC+), Sanchez (145 wRC+), Yelich (187 wRC+)

Youngsters Performing (3)
Turang (138 wRC+), Perkins (118 wRC+), Ortiz (143 wRC+)

Young Struggling But Need PAs (2)
Frelick (87 wRC+), Chourio (74 wRC+)

After that Monasterio hasn’t done much in limited run this year, but is a perfectly cromulent 5th IF.

Bauers has lived up to expectations in the box (unfortunately) but is our only decent 1B in the field so I’m fine with him on the roster as the 12th/13th man now that Sanchez/Yelich are both healthy and playing.

Dunn should be playing in AAA everyday not only for his development but so Murphy doesn’t keep writing his name on the lineup card instead of Ortiz.

These numbers beg the same question as the team runs per game numbers.

As I listed in a post above (using the more familiar OPS), most of the Brewers regulars were much less productive in the most recent 21 games than the first 13. It shouldn't be surprising that fans might be reacting to the larger and more recent block of games than the exceptional hot streak they had in the first two weeks of the season.

I would ask how the projections for the rest of the season compare to the current season to date numbers. I'm sure Yelich isn't expected to maintain an OPS anywhere near the 1.100 he had before yesterday. I would be very happy if he can exceed .800.

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

As I listed in a post above (using the more familiar OPS), most of the Brewers regulars were much less productive in the most recent 21 games than the first 13.

Using raw OPS is a bad idea when league wide offense is down considerably from last year...

2023: 248/320/414
2024: 239/312/385

The last time league wide position player OPS was lower that its current .697 mark was in 1976 (.692), though 1981 (.698) barely snuck by. 

These things tend to trend upward as the weather warms up so there is still time to catch 2022 (.706 OPS) or 2014 (.711 OPS) for the lowest league wide season for position player offense in recent memory.

Either way, the recent lows may have been somewhat overstated. In the 23 games since the hot start Brewers batters are at 232/317/376 (101 wRC+) so they have been essentially average even while struggling without Yelich in the lineup.
 

[BruisedCrew]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Using raw OPS is a bad idea when league wide offense is down considerably from last year...

2023: 248/320/414
2024: 239/312/385

The last time league wide position player OPS was lower that its current .697 mark was in 1976 (.692), though 1981 (.698) barely snuck by. 

These things tend to trend upward as the weather warms up so there is still time to catch 2022 (.706 OPS) or 2014 (.711 OPS) for the lowest league wide season for position player offense in recent memory.

Either way, the recent lows may have been somewhat overstated. In the 23 games since the hot start Brewers batters are at 232/317/376 (101 wRC+) so they have been essentially average even while struggling without Yelich in the lineup.
 

OK, but the OPS numbers I was using were all from this season to show that the hitters were much more productive in the first 13 games of the season than they were in the next 21.  
 

 

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

OK, but the OPS numbers I was using were all from this season to show that the hitters were much more productive in the first 13 games of the season than they were in the next 21.  

Yes hitters production fluctuates. That's not a new phenomenon. You talking the lower end production and trying to push that this is who the offense really is pretty much comes down to you being a very open pessimist. The offense has been at worst above average this year. The season long xwOBA is .323 which is 13th in the MLB and 5 points above the .318 MLB average.

[beekay414]

I wouldn't really count on Perkins much going forward. He started insanely hot his first 8 games but since mid-April, he's been around what he was last year. So he's less that 118 wRC+ and more around that 88 wRC+ he posted in 2023. Fine for a 4th OF. 

Frelick and Chourio are struggling mightily too in that time frame. Frelick's hovering around 70 and Chourio is below 40. 

But, as was said, hitter production fluctuates, but it'll tend to line up with what history tells us these guys are in certain cases. Ride the waves when they're hot but don't leave them out there too long when they go cold. In some cases, you can't help that due to injuries and what not and have to take the good (defensive ability in some cases) with the bad (poor plate skills) as a result. 

Nothing groundbreaking in what I'm saying. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I wouldn't really count on Perkins much going forward. He started insanely hot his first 8 games but since mid-April, he's been around what he was last year. So he's less that 118 wRC+ and more around that 88 wRC+ he posted in 2023. Fine for a 4th OF. 

Frelick and Chourio are struggling mightily too in that time frame. Frelick's hovering around 70 and Chourio is below 40. 

But, as was said, hitter production fluctuates, but it'll tend to line up with what history tells us these guys are in certain cases. Ride the waves when they're hot but don't leave them out there too long when they go cold. In some cases, you can't help that due to injuries and what not and have to take the good (defensive ability in some cases) with the bad (poor plate skills) as a result. 

Nothing groundbreaking in what I'm saying. 

Perkins had a .323 xWOBA in April and currently has a .321 xwOBA in May. He had some batted ball luck in April and the opposite in May. His peripherals on the year remain very solid especially when you consider he's the best defensive OF on the team by a considerable margin.