Rotation Discussion

[jay87shot]

Our rotation has been a mess to say the least with 12 different guys making starts. We probably have a decent rotation on the DL with Woody, Gasser, Miley, Ross, Junis, and Hall. I think the prevailing opinion is that we need at least one top of the rotation pitcher to be competitive in a playoff series especially against Atlanta, LA, or Phily.

However I think our rotation has held up well all things considered. Tobias Myers has looked wonderful his past 2 starts. Carlos Rodriguez wasn't great yesterday but I was impressed by his stuff overall. Byrce Wilson has been solid except the last start and Colin Rea has been our most consistent and best pitcher. With a handful of guys getting healthy, guys in the minors making a claim for a shot (Patrick, Clarke, Misi?), and a solid bullpen with crazy depth maybe we don't need a pitcher as much as it would seem.

Questions for discussion

1) Can the rotation be similar to Arizona from last year without any additions?

2) How much does a move for a big pitcher really make?

3) Could adding a big bat to hit clean-up (DH/1B) make a bigger splash.

4)What do we do with our roster crunch when all out players on the DL come back?

5)How amazing has Arnold been at maintaining a rotation and bullpen on what is around 40 million dollars (half-ish on DL). Verlander and Scherzer make more than our entire 40 man pitching roster I think.

[MoreTrife]

The asking price for a top starter is going to be ungodly.

[rickh150]

46 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

The asking price for a top starter is going to be ungodly.

Who would this even be? B to B- starters, sure, but is there an ace on the market? Is there a Sabathia even out there?

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, MoreTrife said:

The asking price for a top starter is going to be ungodly.

Agreed, where would we draw the line of top starters? I like Luis Severino a lot, with the 1/2 year I doubt he costs anything close to a top 100 prospect. 

I think Justin Verlander maybe the perfect option for us if things play out the way I imagine. There will be some decent competition for him but a lot of the top teams have a solid rotation 1-4 set for the playoffs. We would likely be up against the Braves who are up against a salary apron and have a solid 1-4 and the Dodgers who are solid and have injuries coming back (maybe the Padres). We could give the Astos 2 or 3 solid piece depending on how much salary they would eat (mets paying a bunch I believe). Verlander would be a solid leader and that consistent vet to keep us in a big game.

Rentals: Kukuchi, Severino, Manaea, Verlander (player option with if 140 innings), Trevor Williams, Flaherty, Montgomery, 

Control: Fedde, Quantrall, Crochet, Luzardo, Tyler Anderson, Bassitt/Gausman

???: Snell, Rangers starters depth, Sonny Gray

I know some of those guys are iffy to call top starters but in some light or the right argument could be. 

[LouisEly]

13 hours ago, jay87shot said:

1) Can the rotation be similar to Arizona from last year without any additions?

Can the rotation be similar to the 2015 Royals?  Peralta is like Ventura, young and talented but inconsistent.  Nobody else on that 2015 Royals staff averaged over 7.0 K/9 or had a FIP significantly under 4.00 (Volquez was 3.82).  Just need starters to go 4-5 innings and then turn it over to a lockdown bullpen.

I think the Brewers need one starter to get them to October, but it doesn't have to be a Verlander or Luzardo.  Then in October, with Devin Williams back, you could have a 9-man bullpen of:

RHP: Williams, Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Wilson
LHP: Hudson, Milner, Koenig
9th man: one of Hall/Ashby/Uribe/Paredes depending on who is healthy and if the other team has more RH or LH batters.

They have plenty of multi-inning relievers (Wilson, Hudson, Koenig, Hall, Ashby) that they could go 3 starters and then the 4th starter, if needed, could be a piggyback of Hall/Ashby + Wilson with each going only once through the order covering 4/5 total innings.

They just need that one starter to get them to October.

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

The asking price for a top starter is going to be ungodly.

not necessarily from a prospect capital or dollars and cents perspective...

[TURBO]

Man I hope MLB's uniforms don't continue down that path...

This is how it starts.  Huge Nike swish, advertising on the sleeve...

Next thing you know we'll have an advertisement on the upper leg, then it turns into that mess we see above.

This is why I was totally against it when the advertising on the uniforms started.

It's just gross.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Man I hope MLB's uniforms don't continue down that path...

This is how it starts.  Huge Nike swish, advertising on the sleeve...

Next thing you know we'll have an advertisement on the upper leg, then it turns into that mess we see above.

This is why I was totally against it when the advertising on the uniforms started.

It's just gross.

Yeah, it's difficult to even tell where the team name is on that 

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

not necessarily from a prospect capital or dollars and cents perspective...

A few more we will look like NASCAR.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just now, Brian said:

A few more we will look like NASCAR.

"He sold the windshield!"

"This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons"

 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Man I hope MLB's uniforms don't continue down that path...

This is how it starts.  Huge Nike swish, advertising on the sleeve...

Next thing you know we'll have an advertisement on the upper leg, then it turns into that mess we see above.

This is why I was totally against it when the advertising on the uniforms started.

It's just gross.

Yea I'm not a soccer hater, but the way their jerseys are is off to me too.  Giant brand logo across the chest and then a small crest of some kind on the upper left for the team.   So you see jersey and you're like oh its the Expedia or Turkish Air? What is the team?    Talking to Brits they seem to know it all so it doesn't matter to them, but I think it would help brand a team much better and especially to appeal tot he giant US market if you could actually identify who the team is. Or if you buy a jersey of the team it says Manchester so you know what it is, other people know what you're wearing etc rather than seemingly wearing a shirt in support Marathon Oil.     Basically they should flip the giant chest one with the small shoulder one, boom done. Sure it costs them some money but the top league teams are unlimited in money 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Can the rotation be similar to the 2015 Royals?  Peralta is like Ventura, young and talented but inconsistent.  Nobody else on that 2015 Royals staff averaged over 7.0 K/9 or had a FIP significantly under 4.00 (Volquez was 3.82).  Just need starters to go 4-5 innings and then turn it over to a lockdown bullpen.

I think the Brewers need one starter to get them to October, but it doesn't have to be a Verlander or Luzardo.  Then in October, with Devin Williams back, you could have a 9-man bullpen of:

RHP: Williams, Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Wilson
LHP: Hudson, Milner, Koenig
9th man: one of Hall/Ashby/Uribe/Paredes depending on who is healthy and if the other team has more RH or LH batters.

They have plenty of multi-inning relievers (Wilson, Hudson, Koenig, Hall, Ashby) that they could go 3 starters and then the 4th starter, if needed, could be a piggyback of Hall/Ashby + Wilson with each going only once through the order covering 4/5 total innings.

They just need that one starter to get them to October.

This is my thinking too. The Brewers are going to bullpen their way through the playoffs should they get there. Peralta is going to figure it out and be their big starter. Rea will be there. Maybe someone else emerges or gets healthy or they acquire a decent guy. But we're not going to see a big prospect or core piece get dealt, and I don't think we should.

My possibly too hot take is that I might actually prefer a bat to a pitcher. You have to hit in October. You have to hit good pitching. Inwant the Brewers to be positioned to do that because Devin Williams is going to be our big deadline add. 

We're going to have one or two guys we can hope get 15-18 outs at a time. And then like 7 or 8 guys who can get 3-6 outs at a time. You need to get 54 outs to win a first-round series, and that's enough to do that. Beyond that, I think the 2015 Royals and 2018 Brewers show that you can get deep into the playoffs without big-time ace starters.

[TURBO]

3 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Beyond that, I think the 2015 Royals and 2018 Brewers show that you can get deep into the playoffs without big-time ace starters.

I'm not disagreeing with your full premise, however, it is unlikely we can go deep with the current state of our rotation.  Just because it has happened in the past for a couple of lucky teams, doesn't mean it will happen with this group.  Could it?  Sure, but the odds are not on our side.

 

[Brian]

22 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'm not disagreeing with your full premise, however, it is unlikely we can go deep with the current state of our rotation.  Just because it has happened in the past for a couple of lucky teams, doesn't mean it will happen with this group.  Could it?  Sure, but the odds are not on our side.

 

The Phillies proved we are not as good as the top tier teams but we should be at the top of the second tier. Brewers ranked 6th best team in the latest rankings. 

[brewers888]

The Brewers are averaging the least innings per start of any team in baseball. There is a good chance that at some point the bullpen is going to be fried from throwing 4 plus innings on a nearly nightly basis. Sure the bullpen is a major strength but you have to question if it can remain that way when they are throwing so many innings.

[LouisEly]

40 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Could it?  Sure, but the odds are not on our side.

 

[LouisEly]

41 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'm not disagreeing with your full premise, however, it is unlikely we can go deep with the current state of our rotation.  Just because it has happened in the past for a couple of lucky teams, doesn't mean it will happen with this group.  Could it?  Sure, but the odds are not on our side.

The odds are never going to be on the Brewers side.  The Phillies are stacked, the Dodgers and Braves will always outspend, etc.  They're going to have to get lucky, this year or any year.  Thus the "bites at the apple" approach, and not pushing all of their chips in on any one season.

[brewmann04]

I been clamoring for a Starter does not need to be a Stud . i also will feel better with adding a bat in the lineup.

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

the odds are not on our side.

 

[formerlybis]

3 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea I'm not a soccer hater, but the way their jerseys are is off to me too.  Giant brand logo across the chest and then a small crest of some kind on the upper left for the team.   So you see jersey and you're like oh its the Expedia or Turkish Air? What is the team?    Talking to Brits they seem to know it all so it doesn't matter to them, but I think it would help brand a team much better and especially to appeal tot he giant US market if you could actually identify who the team is. Or if you buy a jersey of the team it says Manchester so you know what it is, other people know what you're wearing etc rather than seemingly wearing a shirt in support Marathon Oil.     Basically they should flip the giant chest one with the small shoulder one, boom done. Sure it costs them some money but the top league teams are unlimited in money 

It really got confusing when Chelsea was sponsored by a company named "3" [not making this up].

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

50 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The odds are never going to be on the Brewers side.  The Phillies are stacked, the Dodgers and Braves will always outspend, etc.  They're going to have to get lucky, this year or any year.  Thus the "bites at the apple" approach, and not pushing all of their chips in on any one season.

This is where I'm at for sure. The best way for the Brewers to balance winning and making postseason runs and keeping the team competitive for long stretches of time is to (mostly) develop position players and to reclamation the crap out of mid-tier starting pitchers (and trying to turn fringe or back-end starters into elite bullpen arms). It's just really, really hard to have pitchers and position players all developing at the same time, and we saw this with Woody and Burnes. They got really good, but the next crop of offensive talent was just not ready. I actually think Woody and Burnes (and Freddy, plus Hader and Devin) completely bailed out the Brewers in terms of playing winning baseball from 2019 to 2023 because the team really struggled to produce or acquire quality position players after the incredible Yelich-Cain infusion. Those pitchers are more the exception than the rule.

I'm more confident in this strategic approach is what I'm saying. Focus on position players like Turang, good defense with a strong contact profile, guys who maybe lack power but can run and field and put the ball in play. The Brewers win with AVG and OBP and playing great defense and adding value on the bases. AND they win with the "out-getters" approach, plus acquiring some lottery ticket, Freddy Peralta types for guys like Adam Lind, plus some shrewd trading that can net you your Adameses and Contrerases.

A lot of whether I want them to add any kind of starter this year comes down to if/when/how we get Junis and Hall and Ross back. I still have a lot of hope for Hall. We'll see how that pans out.

Bottom line, for me, is I just think this team is being run very responsibly by a lot of people who are right more often than they're wrong. My sense is that they're not going to make a big deadline splash, and, honestly, I'm hoping they don't, especially when we're going to be the 3-seed in the NL at best. Trading away guys who can help in this current 5-year window for what? A 5 percent increase in the odds of winning a 3-game baseball series? Not for me. I might think a little differently if we were guaranteed an NLDS, but, even then, there's so much randomness that I think a lot of teams, even the big-market ones, are much more reluctant to part with prospect capital to acquire half-season players, even elite ones.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

11 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

It really got confusing when Chelsea was sponsored by a company named "3" [not making this up].

 

Yeah, the soccer uniforms take some getting used to, though I don't notice the absurdity as much anymore. I think the reverse is stadium naming rights. There are exceptions, but most soccer clubs are playing at places called "Elland Road" or "Anfield" or "Goodison Park" instead of "American Family Field" or "LoanDepot Park" or "Guaranteed Rate Field."

Maybe just a weird cultural quirk.

[Redd Vencher]

The odds are against any team to go far in the playoffs no matter how good they are.

[gregmag]

4 hours ago, brewers888 said:

The Brewers are averaging the least innings per start of any team in baseball. There is a good chance that at some point the bullpen is going to be fried from throwing 4 plus innings on a nearly nightly basis. Sure the bullpen is a major strength but you have to question if it can remain that way when they are throwing so many innings.

Two questions about that stat:

Does it treat openers as starters?

Do we have it broken down by month?

I ask because I have a sense that maybe, as the season has progressed, the Brewers have gotten more out of their (real) starters, though I could be completely wrong.

[sveumrules]

29 minutes ago, gregmag said:

Two questions about that stat:

Does it treat openers as starters?

Do we have it broken down by month?

I ask because I have a sense that maybe, as the season has progressed, the Brewers have gotten more out of their (real) starters, though I could be completely wrong.

Including the 4.1 IP covered by Koenig in his four starts the Brewers are at 4.7 IP/GS, 30th in MLB.

Replace that with the 20.2 IP covered by Wilson/Rea in those four games and they move up to 5.0 IP/GS which scooches them up to 28th.

Arbitrary endpoints and all that, but through their first 19 starts until Hall left the rotation they averaged 4.72 IP/GS.

From game 20 through Ross’s last start on May 20th (game 47) they averaged 4.94 IP/GS.

From game 48 through last night, with Rea/Wilson’s innings subbed in for Koenig’s they are at 5.27 IP/GS.

League average is 5.3 IP/GS.