Ashby and Hall to compete in 2025 as starters

[markedman5]

 

[SF70]

53 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

That should be a no brainer.

7 plus pitches between the two of them, 8, if and when Hall gets his FB back.

Both are poised to have huge years. 

[CheezWizHed]

I didn't want this to get hidden in the Hook thread, so I split it out.

[Redd Vencher]

This bit further adds to my belief that they trade Rea this offseason.

[Frisbee Slider]

16 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

This bit further adds to my belief that they trade Rea this offseason.

Does Rea possibly yield anything more than a lottery ticket? I can’t imagine the net present value that Rea gets in a trade would be worthwhile.

[Redd Vencher]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Does Rea possibly yield anything more than a lottery ticket? I can’t imagine the net present value that Rea gets in a trade would be worthwhile.

Even if it's just a couple of lottery tickets, you still get something for him and save the buyout on the option. There's a big 40 man roster crunch coming this offseason. The rotation looks like Peralta, Myers, Civale, Woodruff, and Rea/Ashby/Hall. Henderson, Crow, and Patrick are all Rule V eligible, and Misiorowski and Rodriguez will be in AAA.

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Even if it's just a couple of lottery tickets, you still get something for him and save the buyout on the option. There's a big 40 man roster crunch coming this offseason. The rotation looks like Peralta, Myers, Civale, Woodruff, and Rea/Ashby/Hall. Henderson, Crow, and Patrick are all Rule V eligible, and Misiorowski and Rodriguez will be in AAA.

That definitely does not seem like a group that you would feel comfortable trading proven MLB SP depth from. You have 3 guys who should be dependable SP and then a bunch of question marks.

[Outlander]

Lots of question marks in that 4/5 spot, I am all for continuing to develop Ashby and Hall but don't think it necessarily means Rea is gone. He stabilizes the rotation and gets you 30 starts over a long season, like this past season he might not be needed in the playoffs but is needed for the grind of the season.

[Redd Vencher]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

That definitely does not seem like a group that you would feel comfortable trading proven MLB SP depth from. You have 3 guys who should be dependable SP and then a bunch of question marks.

 Not saying you can't bring in more rotation depth after trading Rea either. He's out of options, and by year's end this year he was moved to the bullpen. There's not a clear spot for him currently, especially if Ashby and Hall are still in their rotation plans like they've indicated and the forthcoming 40 man crunch. If he still had options, I don't think he would get traded. They did the same thing with Houser last offseason, and he had a much better track record than Rea.

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

 Not saying you can't bring in more rotation depth after trading Rea either. He's out of options, and by year's end this year he was moved to the bullpen. There's not a clear spot for him currently, especially if Ashby and Hall are still in their rotation plans like they've indicated and the forthcoming 40 man crunch. If he still had options, I don't think he would get traded. They did the same thing with Houser last offseason, and he had a much better track record than Rea.

I think there's a pretty clear spot for him in the back of the rotation. You have 3 should be dependable SP (Peralta, Myers, Civale) and a gigantic list of question marks after that. Saying there's not spot for a 4th should be dependable SP doesn't really make sense. Of the other names you listed Woodruff, Ashby, Hall all have legit question marks. Henderson doesn't have a real third pitch and has durability concerns. Crow has never pitched in AAA and is a very light throwing RHP. Patrick was doing well in AAA all year and was never given a chance in the MLB even over a guy like Dallas Keuchel. Misiorowski hasn't shown near the command needed to be an MLB SP yet. Rodriguez has stuff and command concerns.

If you trade Rea you're putting a whole lotta faith in Woodruff being a solid SP as 32 year old post shoulder surgery and Hall/Ashby proving they are MLB level SP.

[Ignitor 4ever]

I think the Brewers will keep Rea as a safety net, but my hope is that the rotation next year is Peralta, Myers, Woodruff and then two of Civale/Hall/Ashby.

[wallus]

Trading Rea would be foolish. He is durable and not expensive.

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I think there's a pretty clear spot for him in the back of the rotation. You have 3 should be dependable SP (Peralta, Myers, Civale) and a gigantic list of question marks after that. Saying there's not spot for a 4th should be dependable SP doesn't really make sense. Of the other names you listed Woodruff, Ashby, Hall all have legit question marks. Henderson doesn't have a real third pitch and has durability concerns. Crow has never pitched in AAA and is a very light throwing RHP. Patrick was doing well in AAA all year and was never given a chance in the MLB even over a guy like Dallas Keuchel. Misiorowski hasn't shown near the command needed to be an MLB SP yet. Rodriguez has stuff and command concerns.

If you trade Rea you're putting a whole lotta faith in Woodruff being a solid SP as 32 year old post shoulder surgery and Hall/Ashby proving they are MLB level SP.

Brewers have been more than willing to lean on more unproven guys for their depth. I think Rea being traded fits that past pattern. Could certainly be wrong about it.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

Trading Rea would be foolish. He is durable and not expensive.

He seemed to tire out at the end of 2024. If ever he would have trade value, maybe it’d be now. Otherwise, I’ll take a reliable sub 4.00 ERA starter.

[Redd Vencher]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

He seemed to tire out at the end of 2024. If ever he would have trade value, maybe it’d be now. Otherwise, I’ll take a reliable sub 4.00 ERA starter.

I wouldn't call Rea a reliable sub 4.00 ERA starter.

[TURBO]

Anybody counting on Woodruff next year is setting themselves up for some disappointment.

No way he can be counted on as one of our top five, anything we do get from him next year is pure gravy...

[SoCalBrewfan]

Pitching depth evaporates so fast, and it's important to remember that even the guys who pitched well this year are not guaranteed to do so again. Most pitchers have track records sprinkled with injuries and ineffectiveness, and while it's nice to dream on Woodruff, Ashby, and Hall, none of them are even close to sure things and it's unwise to plan as if they are. Heck, there's a decent chance the three of them together don't match Rea's 2024 innings total. (I hope they are all great, mind you.) Even Myers, as great as his year was, doesn't have the track record to assume he'll be that good going forward. 

Rea is pretty cost-effective for what he offers, namely a bunch of reliable league average innings; we were willing to pay $7M (including the mutual option) for Junis last year in the hopes that he would do that. Rea is also probably more valuable to us than to anyone else, our defense helps him and there's clearly some mutual comfort level. Not sure he'd have a lot of trade value.

Civale has a better track record but is more expensive; he'd likely bring more in a trade. I hope they keep them both but it also wouldn't surprise me to see either go, particularly if the payroll is negatively affected by the TV contract.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

2 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

I wouldn't call Rea a reliable sub 4.00 ERA starter.

Good point, he had an ERA over 8.00 in September but otherwise was sub 4.00 most of 2024. 
He could certainly regress at age 35.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I think there's a pretty clear spot for him in the back of the rotation. You have 3 should be dependable SP (Peralta, Myers, Civale) and a gigantic list of question marks after that. Saying there's not spot for a 4th should be dependable SP doesn't really make sense. Of the other names you listed Woodruff, Ashby, Hall all have legit question marks. Henderson doesn't have a real third pitch and has durability concerns. Crow has never pitched in AAA and is a very light throwing RHP. Patrick was doing well in AAA all year and was never given a chance in the MLB even over a guy like Dallas Keuchel. Misiorowski hasn't shown near the command needed to be an MLB SP yet. Rodriguez has stuff and command concerns.

If you trade Rea you're putting a whole lotta faith in Woodruff being a solid SP as 32 year old post shoulder surgery and Hall/Ashby proving they are MLB level SP.

If we're throwing Hall and Ashby into the rotation WITH Woodruff...we're sure not going with a 5 man rotation either.

Seems like the preference is a 6 man anyway, but it's going to be all the more important with that rotation. Myers is still young, he's got one year as a starter, Civale and Peralta...I don't know why you're moving a 5.5M starter who can pitch in any role. I'm not getting rid of him for 3 pitchers who...I think can be really good but sure aren't guarantees. 

I'm confident in Woodruff coming back, but I'm also thinking you should hold onto the guy who you know can give you 5-6 innings a night for 30 starts. He also DID have an ERA in the low 3s until late in the year. He had that 10 ER blow up, but he was pretty good for a #4-5.

[markedman5]

Regarding Rea…….

 

[Redd Vencher]

Surprised they weren't able to get a lotto ticket type prospect for him.

[TURBO]

50 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Regarding Rea…….

 

This surprises me to be honest.  We'll just have to replace him with another body and hope he does as well as Rea.  Kind of a headscratcher since we will definitely need some depth.

[yfinn6]

The organization must be confident they can find someone to put up Rea like numbers for less than $5.5 million. No idea who that might be but I trust them to find some cheap arms or some AAA guys. 

[Joseph Zarr]

22 minutes ago, TURBO said:

This surprises me to be honest.  We'll just have to replace him with another body and hope he does as well as Rea.  Kind of a headscratcher since we will definitely need some depth.

The RHP Chad Patrick era begins...

I have to think, at this point (especially given the Rea news), it's a near certainty he is added to the 40-Man. Otherwise they near certainly lose their best 'ready now' end of rotation starter. I don't think the Brewers would overlook how absolutely dominant Patrick was in his last month of work for Nashville after an already fantastic season.

39 K over 25 IP in his last six starts. 5 ER allowed over that span. This includes an abbreviated 3.0 IP, 4 BB snafu vs Gwinnett. His second to last start at Home vs Memphis was a 12 K masterpiece. The cutter was filthy. It reminded me of that last week of bullpen work we saw from RHP Tobias Myers to close the 2023 season - a guy who had really pitched admirably all year somehow found an entirely different level. 

[markedman5]

They obviously don’t think he’s worth the money at this stage of his career and hope to save the buyout..

They must feel confident in the other less expensive guys……..it will be interesting to see if anyone claims him…..and who it is.