Roki Sasaki

[jay87shot]

News today that Sasaki is going to be posted. There is probably less than 1% chance that he would come here but we could dream. 

What would the pitch be, we are young and up and coming. The city will love you forever and some sort of be different and choose your own path.

My guess is the Dodgers are the favorites with Ohtani and Yomamoto, if they get Sasaki for peanuts it would really stink.

[brewmann04]

Dodgers  add him and wily

[nate82]

Depending on when Sasaki is posted he may fall under the 2024 IFA money.  Which only a few teams have money left over.  
 

I don’t believe the Brewers have any bonus pool left over for 2024.  So if he is posted before Dec 2nd the Dodgers followed by the Orioles have the most to give to him.  

[AKCheesehead]

9 hours ago, jay87shot said:

News today that Sasaki is going to be posted. There is probably less than 1% chance that he would come here but we could dream. 

What would the pitch be, we are young and up and coming. The city will love you forever and some sort of be different and choose your own path.

My guess is the Dodgers are the favorites with Ohtani and Yomamoto, if they get Sasaki for peanuts it would really stink.

My guess is there is probably less than 1% chance he goes anywhere besides LAD.

[jw5511986]

Why would we not be serious contenders here? He can only sign for international bonus money and we have shown we develop pitching prospects as well as any. There has to be a way to structure the contract that gets him to FA as a 29 yr old so that he can still make the mega pay day.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, jw5511986 said:

Why would we not be serious contenders here?

Sasaki isn’t giving up three hundred plus million dollars to come to Milwaukee.

I’m guessing his primary motivation is to win World Serieses with his countrymen. 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, jw5511986 said:

Why would we not be serious contenders here?

Because the Brewers only have about $100k in 2024 international free agent bonus pool money left.  He is not going to sign for that.

He will more than likely be posted before Dec 2nd which means he will count towards the 2024 bonus money.  

He is going to sign with the Dodgers it is like a 95% certainty with the Orioles getting a 4% chance then 1% for everyone else with $1mm or more left.  If he is posted after Dec 2nd then the Dodgers drop to like 85% favorites.  The Brewers also haven’t given 1 player the majority of their signing pool bonus money since Gilbert Lara.  So it is very unlikely the Brewers sign him like sub less than 1% chance.
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-faq#:~:text=The Chiba Lotte Marines%2C Sasaki's,an international amateur free agent.

https://apnews.com/sports/mlb-2024-remaining-international-signing-bonus-allotment-list-5de31a9831cd49ca46077cf98d031890

[umphrey]

Sasaki going to LAD makes me want to just quit the sport. It’s bad enough that LAD is going to run a $300m payroll next year. Now they are getting world class players for free too. Sasaki and Ohtani are playing for free when they should be costing $80m+. I hope MLB does something about it but I’m sure they won’t. 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Sasaki going to LAD makes me want to just quit the sport. 

We probably wouldn’t have beaten LAD but strangely the Dodgers weren’t THAT much better than Milwaukee in 2024. The Brewers had their bite at the apple again this year. It just didn’t work out. 

I much prefer great teams than equal mediocrity in other sports.

[umphrey]

I accepted the payroll difference that exists. I was disgusted by the Ohtani deferred money though and this is even worse. Free all stars is just too much. 

[TURBO]

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they will post Roki Sasaki, making him available to MLB teams.

 

The actual timing of the move will likely be delayed, allowing Sasaki to be signed during the 2025 international period after Jan. 15. After all, the vast majority of those limited 2024 dollars have already been spent. Because he’s just 23 and MLB doesn’t want teams paying youngsters what they’re worth, Sasaki will have to sign a minor league deal, probably capped out at $6 million or so, instead of the $200 million or even $300 million he’d surely command as an actual free agent. The hard-throwing righty went 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA and a 524/91 K/BB over 414 2/3 innings in his four seasons with the Marines. That he’s had some injury issues is a concern, and his stuff last season wasn’t as good as it was previously. Still, he’s one of the world’s most talented pitchers.

 

Nov 9, 2024, 7:37 AM CST

Source: ESPN

[Redd Vencher]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

Because the Brewers only have about $100k in 2024 international free agent bonus pool money left.  He is not going to sign for that.

He will more than likely be posted before Dec 2nd which means he will count towards the 2024 bonus money.  

He is going to sign with the Dodgers it is like a 95% certainty with the Orioles getting a 4% chance then 1% for everyone else with $1mm or more left.  If he is posted after Dec 2nd then the Dodgers drop to like 85% favorites.  The Brewers also haven’t given 1 player the majority of their signing pool bonus money since Gilbert Lara.  So it is very unlikely the Brewers sign him like sub less than 1% chance.
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-faq#:~:text=The Chiba Lotte Marines%2C Sasaki's,an international amateur free agent.

https://apnews.com/sports/mlb-2024-remaining-international-signing-bonus-allotment-list-5de31a9831cd49ca46077cf98d031890

The Marines are going to wait until the 2024 period is over (December 15) before officially posting him to get the highest possible posting fee possible, so remaining 2024 pool money is irrelevant. Doesn't mean he still doesn't go to the Dodgers.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, umphrey said:

Sasaki going to LAD makes me want to just quit the sport. It’s bad enough that LAD is going to run a $300m payroll next year. Now they are getting world class players for free too. Sasaki and Ohtani are playing for free when they should be costing $80m+. I hope MLB does something about it but I’m sure they won’t. 

Sasaki situation is different than the Dodgers signing Ohtani.  Sasaki is just an older version of the players who will be available for the 2025 IFA.  This is good for the small market teams but this is only good if the player just wants as much money as they can get.

Even with the Brewers having one of the highest international pool money for 2025 I still don't believe they have a chance at Sasaki even if they were to go after him.  Why?  Because the Brewers haven't spent a majority of their pool money on one player in a while now.  You have to go back to Gilbert Lara where the Brewers have spent the majority of their pool on one player.  This would also go against the Brewers philosophy in the last few years where they have spread the money around to as many players as they can and only leaving a small amount of pool money.  Also I just don't see Milwaukee as a destination that Sasaki would want to go to.  Los Angeles, Seattle and New York are just far more attractive for various reasons to someone like Sasaki.

If anything I think the Mariners or A's will probably be more aggressive with Sasaki but still I think the Dodgers win out here and they spend all or 90% of their bonus pool on Sasaki.  The Dodgers could trade for up to $3mm in bonus pool money but they would have to give up a really good prospect or two to do so.  I just don't see the Brewers as a serious destination for Sasaki. 

 

Here is the pool for 2025:

$7,555,500 Pool

Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays

$6,908,600 Pool

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates

$6,261,600 Pool

Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals

$5,646,200 Pool

Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals

$5,146,200 Pool

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-international-signing-bonus-pools-for-each-mlb-team/

 

[Redd Vencher]

52 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Sasaki situation is different than the Dodgers signing Ohtani.  Sasaki is just an older version of the players who will be available for the 2025 IFA.  This is good for the small market teams but this is only good if the player just wants as much money as they can get.

Even with the Brewers having one of the highest international pool money for 2025 I still don't believe they have a chance at Sasaki even if they were to go after him.  Why?  Because the Brewers haven't spent a majority of their pool money on one player in a while now.  You have to go back to Gilbert Lara where the Brewers have spent the majority of their pool on one player.  This would also go against the Brewers philosophy in the last few years where they have spread the money around to as many players as they can and only leaving a small amount of pool money.  Also I just don't see Milwaukee as a destination that Sasaki would want to go to.  Los Angeles, Seattle and New York are just far more attractive for various reasons to someone like Sasaki.

If anything I think the Mariners or A's will probably be more aggressive with Sasaki but still I think the Dodgers win out here and they spend all or 90% of their bonus pool on Sasaki.  The Dodgers could trade for up to $3mm in bonus pool money but they would have to give up a really good prospect or two to do so.  I just don't see the Brewers as a serious destination for Sasaki. 

 

Here is the pool for 2025:

$7,555,500 Pool

Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays

$6,908,600 Pool

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates

$6,261,600 Pool

Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals

$5,646,200 Pool

Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals

$5,146,200 Pool

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-international-signing-bonus-pools-for-each-mlb-team/

 

It depends on what they already have committed to other IFA already, and how willing they are to cancelling those deals or how much they can trade for. Brewers for example have commitments to the 35, 41, 44 best prospects on according to Pipeline.

[umphrey]

From what I read, Sasaki would be looking at something in the range of $150m to $300m if he was a true FA, but because he’s coming over now he’ll be capped at around $5m. But he’s expecting a lot of endorsement money. That’s why every single team wants to sign him but the dodgers will get him for free. Gross. 

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

It depends on what they already have committed to other IFA already, and how willing they are to cancelling those deals or how much they can trade for. Brewers for example have commitments to the 35, 41, 44 best prospects on according to Pipeline.

Pipeline states nothing of the sort about the Brewers signing anyone or going to sign anyone.  The tweet came from Curt Hogg who isn't affiliated with MLB Pipeline and is only reporting on his sources not MLB Pipeline. 

I haven't seen any rumors that the Dodgers have even committed to anyone in the '25 IFA.  This is the Dodgers so there should be some rumors floating around and since there are not they are probably ear marking that money for Sosaki.  It is probably why they left about $2mm in IFA bonus money just sit there for '24.  They wanted to have some money left over in case he was posted before the '25 signing period so they could jump in and sign him.  So no it doesn't depend on what they already have committed to other IFA as they haven't committed at all to anyone. 

[brewmann04]

Pipedream

[ecjimg]

On 11/9/2024 at 8:44 AM, jay87shot said:

News today that Sasaki is going to be posted. There is probably less than 1% chance that he would come here but we could dream. 

What would the pitch be, we are young and up and coming. The city will love you forever and some sort of be different and choose your own path.

My guess is the Dodgers are the favorites with Ohtani and Yomamoto, if they get Sasaki for peanuts it would really stink.

Yeh I like your reasoning. Get Chourio  Yount and Uecker involved.  Woodruff to talk about the pitching coaches etc.  Dreaming? Yeh I guess

[Brewcrew82]

Who might this describe??

[nate82]

54 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Who might this describe??

The Rays.  

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Who might this describe??

Along with the two obvious answers, the team that execs polled by Fangraphs thought had the most uncommitted 2025 bonus money: Cleveland.

[jw5511986]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Who might this describe??

I'm just saying, I understand it's a long shot but I don't know why we wouldn't be much more in this than the typical FA situation for these types of players.

[jw5511986]

On 11/9/2024 at 10:35 PM, sveumrules said:

Sasaki isn’t giving up three hundred plus million dollars to come to Milwaukee.

I’m guessing his primary motivation is to win World Serieses with his countrymen. 

He wouldn't be giving this up by coming to Milwaukee either.

[markedman5]

 

[jay87shot]

I would be thrilled if Sasaki went to any small market team. If he came to us would we have to rescind most of our other int. offers?