2025 Bench

[Playing Catch]

Amid all of the chatter about prospective free agent additions, trade possibilities, and the collective dread of heading into Spring Training w/o having replaced Adames' production, I wanted to ask for the board's thoughts on the Brewers 2025 bench. Currently, Fangraphs has projected a 4-man bench featuring Haase, and Tyler Black, with platoon options Blake Perkins (Frelick), and Caleb Durbin (Oliver Dunn). When McKibbon projected the 26-man, he included Monasterio over Dunn.

The Fangraphs projection would mean that Dunn/Durbin have replaced Adames/Monasterio, with Black replacing Bauers, and Haase replacing Sanchez on the active roster.

For my money, the Fangraphs projection is where I'm at as well. I think the only question marks would be Dunn and Black. Do we have any idea how Dunn has recovered from his back issues? Are we convinced the Brewers will go with Black over Bauers? Durbin is a lock, right? And would we be okay with the Brewers signing a free agent that doesn't fit nicely with Durbin as a platoon piece, like Dunn does?

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

Amid all of the chatter about prospective free agent additions, trade possibilities, and the collective dread of heading into Spring Training w/o having replaced Adames' production, I wanted to ask for the board's thoughts on the Brewers 2025 bench. Currently, Fangraphs has projected a 4-man bench featuring Haase, and Tyler Black, with platoon options Blake Perkins (Frelick), and Caleb Durbin (Oliver Dunn). When McKibbon projected the 26-man, he included Monasterio over Dunn.

The Fangraphs projection would mean that Dunn/Durbin have replaced Adames/Monasterio, with Black replacing Bauers, and Haase replacing Sanchez on the active roster.

For my money, the Fangraphs projection is where I'm at as well. I think the only question marks would be Dunn and Black. Do we have any idea how Dunn has recovered from his back issues? Are we convinced the Brewers will go with Black over Bauers? Durbin is a lock, right? And would we be okay with the Brewers signing a free agent that doesn't fit nicely with Durbin as a platoon piece, like Dunn does?

I don’t think the Brewers would waste Black’s pre-arbitration years coming off the bench especially after and up and down year in the minors in ‘24.

I could be wrong but he either forces his way into the everyday mix at 1B and DH with his hitting during spring training or he’s going to wait in AAA for another chance.

Also, this is right about the time that the Brewers have begun signing players in years past. I’m willing to bet the player they have now isn’t what they open camp with. 

[Outlander]

I would consider Durbin a near lock to make the team, still hoping for another signing so he is more of a bench guy than starter. Not much confidence in Monasterio and not sure what to think of Dunn considering he never came back from the injury and then struggled in the Dominican league during the off season. Might be best if they are both in the minors to at least start the year.

Not sure why they keep on hanging on to Capra when he has not options so maybe they are even thinking of him as a bench option if no further upgrades.

Would not have a problem with Black on the bench as Bauers got a ton of time last year.

 

[jay87shot]

I really am not to worried about the bench, there will definitely be some games where the bench/pinch hitting options are weak but in reality I don't think there is anyone of our everyday players who will need to be pinch hit for other than 3B. I am fine with Sal and Mitchell hitting in the 8/9th vs. a lefty same for Ortiz/Rhys vs. righty. 

If things started today, I would have Black on pace for Bauers role last year, when he is going good he can DH more and Murph can probably sneak him into the OF or 3B occasionally if/when there are OF injuries. Bauers had 300 ab's, my guess is a slighty expanded version of that is around 400 abs and injuries could make it more.

[wntrtxn21]

I agree that it's time for the Brewers to find out if Black can play or not. However, barring any major injuries, where is he going to play? The Brewers rely on their excellent defense for  wins and Black is reportedly very limited defensively at 3B and 1B. Bauers got a lot of starts at 1B because he was a much better defensive 1B than Hoskins. Black isn't. If Hoskins has a bounce back year like I'm hoping, that will limit Black even more. I believe Yelich will be the primary DH. Right now it looks like Contreras will be the clean-up hitter, so in order to rest him and keep his bat in the lineup,  I see him getting 30+ games as the DH. Without a trade, Perkins will be the 4th OF with Yelich getting some time in LF when Contreras DHs.  Four of the 5 OFs hit LH, (Perkins a switch hitter) so I don't see much for Black out there either.  A lot depends on what Milwaukee does in the upcoming days to address 3B/SS. A trade of an OF could open up a spot for Black. 

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I agree that it's time for the Brewers to find out if Black can play or not. However, barring any major injuries, where is he going to play?

Even if Hoskins is healthy all year, he won't play 162 games. One day off a week to keep him fresh and one day a week at DH would open around 50 games for Black at 1B.

Give Tyler one game a week in the DH spot and he's up around 75 starts. Throw in a handful of random OF games like Bauers got last year and he's starting something like half the games and can probably rack up another 30 PAs or so as a pinch hitter (Bauers had 33 last year).

Should be able to get Black 350-400 PAs pretty easy if everyone is healthy. Any time Hoskins or Yelich miss with injury just opens more opportunities.

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

If things started today, I would have Black on pace for Bauers role last year, when he is going good he can DH more and Murph can probably sneak him into the OF or 3B occasionally if/when there are OF injuries. Bauers had 300 ab's, my guess is a slighty expanded version of that is around 400 abs and injuries could make it more.

Not a chance we see Black at 3B...............................EVER! 

That ship has sailed.

[Deacon Blue]

As the team is currently constructed, against right handers, my thoughts are more along the line of Black/Yelich splitting LF and DH; Chourio in right, Frelick at 3rd.  Bench is Haase, Perkins, Bauers and one of Durbin / Monastario.

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, Deacon Blue said:

As the team is currently constructed, against right handers, my thoughts are more along the line of Black/Yelich splitting LF and DH; Chourio in right, Frelick at 3rd.  Bench is Haase, Perkins, Bauers and one of Durbin / Monastario.

I believe there is < 5% chance that you will see Frelick start at 3B. 

[Scooterfletcher]

I really don’t care about the bench except for three things

1) Black needs to be on the team the entire year be it as a pinch hitter, DH, 1B , playing bad infield somewhere, or playing corner infield hopefully adequately.   But he needs to be on the team all year and not a day in AAA.

2) Haase has impressed enough to get the full year at backup catcher.   Delay Quero clock and there is a decent reason for it.

3) Perkins is obviously good enough to be a spare OF if not more.   Those three should not be demoted under any circumstances.

[CheeseheadInQC]

6 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

I really don’t care about the bench except for three things

1) Black needs to be on the team the entire year be it as a pinch hitter, DH, 1B , playing bad infield somewhere, or playing corner infield hopefully adequately.   But he needs to be on the team all year and not a day in AAA.

2) Haase has impressed enough to get the full year at backup catcher.   Delay Quero clock and there is a decent reason for it.

3) Perkins is obviously good enough to be a spare OF if not more.   Those three should not be demoted under any circumstances.

Disagree on No. 1. If they decide Black’s defense isn’t good enough at 1st, they need to just move him to the outfield and get him actual playing time there, which likely means triple-A. Proving that Black can play a competent outfield long term is in both the Brewers’ and Black’s interest.

[TURBO]

10 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

 

1) Black needs to be on the team the entire year be it as a pinch hitter, DH, 1B , playing bad infield somewhere, or playing corner infield hopefully adequately.   But he needs to be on the team all year and not a day in AAA.

 

I don't want to see him in a pinch hitter role.  He needs regular at bats daily.

His only real chance at daily at bats seems to be between OF, 1B and DH.  I don't think he is considered any longer at 3B or 2B.

We need to know if this kid is the hitter some think he is.  The only way to do that is to not jerk him back and forth between MLB and AAA all season long.  He needs regular at bats.  He needs to e allowed to fail and not worry about being up and down between levels all season.  Give him at the very least a full month of full time playing time to figure things out.

 

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Even if Hoskins is healthy all year, he won't play 162 games. One day off a week to keep him fresh and one day a week at DH would open around 50 games for Black at 1B.

Give Tyler one game a week in the DH spot and he's up around 75 starts. Throw in a handful of random OF games like Bauers got last year and he's starting something like half the games and can probably rack up another 30 PAs or so as a pinch hitter (Bauers had 33 last year).

Should be able to get Black 350-400 PAs pretty easy if everyone is healthy. Any time Hoskins or Yelich miss with injury just opens more opportunities.

I don’t know where this Black playing the outfield stuff comes from. He’s played in the outfield less than 40 games since high school. I guess he’s athletic so anything is “possible”. 

However, based on how the Brewers value defense it seems kind of unlikely they’d have a rookie coming off the bench periodically to play a position he has rarely played since he was a kid.

Plus, the unlikelihood they keep one of their young bonus babies on the 26 man roster to play a couple times a week while earning service time. It’s just not something the Brewers do.  So Black will likely either make the club as a regular with his bat, or he’ll play everyday in AAA until there’s a need. 

[sveumrules]

47 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know where this Black playing the outfield stuff comes from

It comes from people who have watched him play…

”It’s a big enough issue that I have him projected to first base and will speculate he’ll eventually play the outfield corner, as well.” -FG 2024 report

”For a while now there has been doubt about Black’s ability to play the infield, and he started seeing time in the outfield in 2022, especially during the Arizona autumn. The look out there was brief, in part because of the injured thumb, but early returns are positive and Black might be able to play out there.” -FG 2023 report

Numerous posters on the minor league forum who watch the affiliates daily have also noted their belief that OF is Black’s best spot defensively.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

It comes from people who have watched him play…

”It’s a big enough issue that I have him projected to first base and will speculate he’ll eventually play the outfield corner, as well.” -FG 2024 report

”For a while now there has been doubt about Black’s ability to play the infield, and he started seeing time in the outfield in 2022, especially during the Arizona autumn. The look out there was brief, in part because of the injured thumb, but early returns are positive and Black might be able to play out there.” -FG 2023 report

Numerous posters on the minor league forum who watch the affiliates daily have also noted their belief that OF is Black’s best spot defensively.

Can confirm.

Having watched the vast majority of Black's Brewers  Minor League career, even in limited exposure (when considering the number of infield innings played), when he mans the OF grass it is the only defensive positioning and in-game output I consistently come away thinking "Hey, this could really work at the MLB level." He has the range. His glove plays 10x better out there - his hands aren't the problem they are in the infield. I don't know about the arm, honestly, because he really hasn't had to unleash it from that distance - I suspect it is average (ie, good enough but not plus) tho given what we've seen on the infield dirt. We also haven't seen enough work there on sinking liners where a charging catch or diving/sliding catch or pull-up is warranted. He just hasn't been given enough exposure there - if you recall when they first put him into CF with High-A Wisconsin he injured himself for the season on a fantastic ranging diving catch into LF. He was then given no OF innings in 2023. With a lack of upper levels high-caliber OF depth and with the trade of Wiemer and 40-Man promotions of Hicklen and Collins, the Sounds staff (surely, with input from the Brewers higher ups) began using him in LF and CF regularly. AND, I am telling you: it is a 10x more comfortable viewing experience from this ol' codger. He has real ability out there whereas I legitimately feel like any and every play on the infield dirt is a 50/50 proposition. I know the data likely won't scream this to you. I am telling you: near everything on the infield dirt is an adventure. He could go from making an insanely athletic diving stop at 1B in one inning to completely missing a routine stab at head height on a bang-bang play and throw from across the diamond to open the next frame. It just does not engender trust.

What the Brewers have at Triple-A Nashville and Double-A Biloxi  today is vastly different than the start of the 2024 campaigns. They have new Rule 5 additions in Nashville - unknowns within the org. The Biloxi OF is a massive unknown at present. They lost the in-season addition of Connor Scott (as of now). Sparks is gone. Cargo is with the Braves. Lara and O'Rae are not ready to face MLB pitching. Black is absolutely, as it currently stands, atop the list for MLB depth considerations on the OF grass. His bat, and his wheels, have a legitimate chance to stick. I think this is all fairly obvious. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

It comes from people who have watched him play…

”It’s a big enough issue that I have him projected to first base and will speculate he’ll eventually play the outfield corner, as well.” -FG 2024 report

”For a while now there has been doubt about Black’s ability to play the infield, and he started seeing time in the outfield in 2022, especially during the Arizona autumn. The look out there was brief, in part because of the injured thumb, but early returns are positive and Black might be able to play out there.” -FG 2023 report

Numerous posters on the minor league forum who watch the affiliates daily have also noted their belief that OF is Black’s best spot defensively.

Sure maybe when he fails everywhere else, but the fact is he doesn’t play there now and hasn’t as a pro.   Which means, like I said earlier, the chances as you suggest that he’s up with the major league team and playing OF randomly are quite slim at this point. 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sure maybe when he fails everywhere else, but the fact is he doesn’t play there now and hasn’t as a pro.   Which means, like I said earlier, the chances as you suggest that he’s up with the major league team and playing OF randomly are quite slim at this point. 

The chances that Jake Bauers would play any outfield with the Brewers were slim this time last year too, and he ended up starting seven games in LF and two games if RF.

[Jopal78]

48 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The chances that Jake Bauers would play any outfield with the Brewers were slim this time last year too, and he ended up starting seven games in LF and two games if RF.

Yep, and Jake Bauers also had 400+ games in the outfield in minor leagues.
 

Perhaps you are right and the Brewers are going to buck their recent history and break in a first round pick as a bench player while playing positions in the pros at which he is inexperienced. I just don’t see it.

However, I will add,  Rhy Hoskins’s performance likely has not earned him much more than to start spring training at the top of the depth chart. So Black could always play his way into being a regular at 1B

[Underachiever]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

So Black could always play his way into being a regular at 1B

This. How about Black just comes up and hits from the beginning. He could turn  Hoskins into a bench player if he doesn’t OPS .561 again when he gets a chance. All of this discussion over a guy who has zero value if he’s not hitting. You could ride out Turang’s struggles because of his glove. Black has to hit the ground running. 

[Playing Catch]

On 2/1/2025 at 9:26 AM, Jopal78 said:

Plus, the unlikelihood they keep one of their young bonus babies on the 26 man roster to play a couple times a week while earning service time. It’s just not something the Brewers do.  So Black will likely either make the club as a regular with his bat, or he’ll play everyday in AAA until there’s a need. 

I'm not sure Black still commands the "bonus baby" status as you suggest. I certainly don't believe that he's worthy of worrying about service time.

At this point, I think everyone involved, including Black, would probably be thrilled with him carving out a solid big-league role of any kind, giving him a chance to earn a major league contract beyond his 6-years of club control.

[duewizard]

On 1/31/2025 at 7:01 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe there is < 5% chance that you will see Frelick start at 3B. 

I think we maybe see 2-3 games. Caratini at 1B type of thing.