Tyler Black Won't (and Shouldn't) Make the 2025 Brewers, at Least Right Away

[Matthew Trueblood]

The left-hitting Canadian has been Brewers Twitter's favorite prospect over the last few years. It was a nice little dream. Let's wake up now.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Entering spring training last year, Tyler Black had good prospect buzz all over him. He'd just torn through the top two levels of the minor leagues in 2023, hitting .284/.417/.513 with 18 home runs and 55 stolen bases. He'd shown superb plate discipline even after a second-half promotion from Double-A Biloxi to Triple-A Nashville, and most fans were happy to look past or downplay some of the slightly concerning underlying numbers, like a 102-mile-per-hour 90th-percentile exit velocity. By acclamation, his upside was high, and the future was close at hand.

It never came. Black arrived last spring hoping to play a fair amount of third base, but that didn't pan out. They gave him lots of reps at first base in Arizona, and then with Nashville, with unsatisfactory results. Black is a good athlete, in a general way, but he utterly lacks a defensive home right now. The best plan seems to be to move him to the outfield, and he did play 12 games out there in 2024, but the Brewers don't have the level of need for help at those positions that would make Black especially valuable to them there, since he's not even an instinctive or successful defender when he ventures out there, like Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins are.

Worse, Black sputtered in his 57 sporadic plate appearances in the majors, and he took a modest step backward offensively even in the minors. Over 462 plate appearances with Nashville, Black batted .258/.375/.429, and hit just 14 home runs. His 90th-percentile exit velocity actually got slightly worse, at 101.9 mph. His average exit velocity was a lousy 85.7 mph, and even if we focus only on the batted balls with a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees, the figure is only 89.2 mph. 

He still piled up walks, because the technology-assisted strike zone in the high minors is hitter-friendly and because Black has a good eye. He still didn't strike out much, because he genuinely does have average-plus contact ability. It's not clear, though, whether Black can keep his strikeout rate well below average against big-league hurlers or not.

His per-swing whiff rate at Nashville was under 20%, which would be about 80th-percentile in the majors. When he was actually in the majors, though, he whiffed over 24% of the time, which is more or less average. Big-league pitchers are better at throwing strikes than Triple-A pitchers are, and they have no reason to fear Black, given the lack of sock in his stick. Even if he maintains his Triple-A contact rate once he gets a longer runway in the majors, he's likely to strike out more and walk less than he's done in his 635 trips to the plate at Triple A.

That's to be expected, and it's fine for a prospect with good power and/or ample defensive value. Since Black is short on both, though, the specter of regression in the value of his plate discipline is daunting, because that's really the only way he reliably creates value right now. Eventually, he might emerge as a better and different hitter. He might move to the outfield, get more consistent playing time there, and blossom into a fine center fielder; he has good speed. In the meantime, though, Black just isn't very helpful, especially to the Brewers.

Many fans were still hoping he'd get a look at the hot corner this year in Maryvale. That isn't happening, and with good reason. Many assume he at least has an inside track on one of the bench jobs on the prospective Opening Day roster. That's not so, either, and nor would that track be deserved. There's no longer an expectation that further development in Nashville will smooth out his flaws. If it were going to, that should have happened already. At this point, he's ticketed to Triple A simply because he's not one of the team's best 26 players.

Black is Frelick or Brice Turang without the glove right now. He's a disciplined but light-hitting designated hitter. Until something in that equation changes dramatically, don't expect to see him take on a significant role with the Brewers—and if he ever does get that significant role, it might well be for another team.

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[jay87shot]

It all depends on his defense for me, I think I put his bat ahead of all the other options at 3B or 1B platoon but what does he look like on the grass. If he is close to the others defensively I start him in the bigs either at 3rd everyday (super nervous about this) or in a super platoon role spliting 1st with Rhys, a little 3rd with the other utility guy/guys, and also as a OF and DH when needed. His numbers really fell with a late slump in AAA but he was a better hitter before the mlb callup and inconsistent pt. 

I think the biggest thing is that when he comes up he needs some consistent playing time/ab's. Give him like a full month of everyday work before we make up our minds one way or the other. It seemed like he played a game or two than sat a game or two back and forth for the time he was up last year and I can see how that might be hard for a young guy, especially one who has switched positions like 4 times.

[Sugarrayray]

Usually I agree with Matthew but very much disagree in this instance. Comparing Black offensively to Turang or Frelick is just not really realistic? Even if some underlying metrics point to him being previously somewhat overhyped as a prospect.

Also regarding his cup of coffee in the Bigs, I’m reading into that about as much as I would Spring Training at bats. Beyond the tiny sample size, he got sporadic playing time, and more importantly was making a huge adjustment to not having an automatic strike zone. It’s an adjustment he WILL make, just needs more than 50 ABs to do so. I also feel like several Umps enjoy checking rookies who have naturally better eyes than they do, concerning balls and strikes - he should have had at least 5 more walks in the majors last year than he did. 

[harrydalton]

They should send Black to Nashville to play full time at his best position, probably LF. He wouldn't be the first one position player with a pretty good bat. Why waste his potential trying to fit him in as 3b, 1b, or utility role without ever establishing his best defensive position? 

[wallus]

Black should get traded while he still has value

[Harold Hutchison]

4 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

Usually I agree with Matthew but very much disagree in this instance. Comparing Black offensively to Turang or Frelick is just not really realistic? Even if some underlying metrics point to him being previously somewhat overhyped as a prospect.

Also regarding his cup of coffee in the Bigs, I’m reading into that about as much as I would Spring Training at bats. Beyond the tiny sample size, he got sporadic playing time, and more importantly was making a huge adjustment to not having an automatic strike zone. It’s an adjustment he WILL make, just needs more than 50 ABs to do so. I also feel like several Umps enjoy checking rookies who have naturally better eyes than they do, concerning balls and strikes - he should have had at least 5 more walks in the majors last year than he did. 

With Black, we have a left-handed version of the 1987-1996 Paul Molitor. Not a slugger by any means, but a very good leadoff hitter whose bat plays in left or at third base, first base, even DH. Clear upgrade over Turang in the leadoff hole, and you can get him five starts a week between 3B, 1B, and DH.

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

With Black, we have a left-handed version of the 1987-1996 Paul Molitor. Not a slugger by any means, but a very good leadoff hitter whose bat plays in left or at third base, first base, even DH. Clear upgrade over Turang in the leadoff hole, and you can get him five starts a week between 3B, 1B, and DH.

From 1987-96 Molitor hit for 134 wRC+ with his 40.6 WAR ranking 10th in MLB over that stretch,

I'd love it if Tyler Black was a Top Ten player in MLB for a decade plus, but I'll take the under.

[jesusoftheapes]

Tyler Black is BETTER than Rhys Hoskins on defense.    Shocker to hear but it's more than true.   Hoskins has always carried the same defensive issue everyone is saying about Black.     Rhys has lived off his bat .        So when people say the same nonsense about Black I cringe because 1st base is a place for defenders who will never win awards in the first place.   He is more than good enough to play Big Boy Ball .     

Black is Not like Sal or Turang with "bad" defense.   He is BETTER than either of them coming out of AAA as a hitter.     Sal and Brice both carried themselves off defense first which is why they came in earlier than Black.  Black has never been a liability on defense despite the constant harping by the people who talk about prospects. He is just not the Platinum Glove level defenders like Blake ,Brice and Sal and that is OKAY.      When  compared him Sal and Brice on D there are a handful of MLB players that compare on that level so it is simply not fair to expect this level of defense from Black and that seems like what is happening here.       

Tyler Black is never going to compete for Golden glove awards and I really do not care and no one else should either . He was not brought to baseball to play golden defense .  He was brought up to where he is because he bats better than 60% of the MLB .   Tyler Black with proper support and a honest shot at 1st would win that job for 50% of the MLB at least.  No one here seems to be willing to give him that shot.    To be fair to Tyler Black they should move him and he will be a .270+ hitter for another Ball Club.   He is MLB ready and has been for 2 seasons and holding him in AAA again only because Murphy hates his guts.     

Tyler Black reminds me of Pete Rose.     Hopefully not in gambling but how Managers react to his personality and how he is loved by those who watch him play but is hated by everyone else in Media and Management.     I hope he gets a more fair shot but if not the Brewers should let him go to play someplace before the season .   

 

[jesusoftheapes]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

Black should get traded while he still has value

Black should not lose value.  I do think to be fair to Black however let him play or let him play elsewhere.   It is getting to the point where this is  hurting Black by keeping him off MLB fields.  He has 0 to learn in AAA at this point.   

 I do not think trading him off is a good look for the Brewers in the end though I do support the trade.   Where he goes he will do well and make the Crew look dumb for having traded him after this much invested in developing him.     Black is going to be a very nice player in the MLB no matter what Murphy thinks of him personality wise. 

I am with you .   Blacks trade value is low as it stands.   There is very little to gain by trading him in value no matter how it breaks.    I do not think his trade value is enough to worry about it dropping out though.   He is no more valuable than Weimer was in trade so the idea of that value dropping is not really a thing.  

Trading him to be fair to the player  who is ready to play MLB ball however would be a nice move if they care about Black at all though.   If they do not have a plan for him so trade him.  He deserves a real shot and the Brewers are not giving it to him.    

[jesusoftheapes]

4 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

Usually I agree with Matthew but very much disagree in this instance. Comparing Black offensively to Turang or Frelick is just not really realistic? Even if some underlying metrics point to him being previously somewhat overhyped as a prospect.

Also regarding his cup of coffee in the Bigs, I’m reading into that about as much as I would Spring Training at bats. Beyond the tiny sample size, he got sporadic playing time, and more importantly was making a huge adjustment to not having an automatic strike zone. It’s an adjustment he WILL make, just needs more than 50 ABs to do so. I also feel like several Umps enjoy checking rookies who have naturally better eyes than they do, concerning balls and strikes - he should have had at least 5 more walks in the majors last year than he did. 

I think your statement on what he should have in the Bigs was true.  He was called out by strikeout when he refused to swing at balls that were called strikes.  I also think this is a must learn part of Black's game.   Which is why I see no value in Black staying in AAA.   On top of that all I believe the Brewers told the umps to call things that way on purpose when Black was up to bat that series.  

I also agree with your review of the article .   Sal and Turang were not hitters like Black is when they came up.    Black is has always been a superior hitter to either Sal or Brice.   They called up because they were both golden defenders who had to develop better on offense.     The opposite is true from Black so comparing Tyler to either of those guys is not a good way to put his situation to word.  

Black seems being held back for other reasons I am not in agreement with.   It seems like a personality contest to me and Murphy openly hates on Black and it seems to be the only thing holding him back . 

[Ro Mueller]

I really thought we’d trade him at the 2023 trade deadline, given how much we prize defense. He had a .946 OPS with 47 SBs in AA ball at the time (July 30, 2023), so I thought we could sell high.

Hopefully he figures it all out this year nonetheless.

[gregmag]

Man that’s a hatchet job, and maybe the most smug, condescending subhead I’ve ever seen on this site. I don’t even disagree much, but now you’ve got me rooting for Black just to teach you some humility.

[Jake McKibbin]

So here are the side by sides of Turang, Frelick and Black's last fullish seasons in Triple A Nashville:

Turang is closest to Black's bat, albeit slightly below but does have the benefit of showing (what's now proven as) platinum glove defense. If you said Turang could play only average to below average 1B/LF/DH I think you'd all agree that his bat doesn't profile nearly well enough to get even regular playing time there.

For reference Ty France has an OPS just .005 points above Turang's at first base and was DFA'd by the Seattle Mariners in the middle of 2024

Sal Frelick was leagues above both with the bat in Triple A, both in raw power and his contact skills. It's the main reason some of us are hopeful he has more in the tank for 2025.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

The fact is the guy he is competing with is Jake Bauers.  And Bauers simply is a better player, despite the negativity he gets on this board.  Bauers is better defensively, both at 1B and in the outfield.  Bauers swings and misses a lot a fact that actually that helps him getting deeper in counts and had a very decent walk rate to go along elite power swing.  When he connects it is almost always a no doubter and he's shown he can occasionally take elite pitching deep.  If Bauers ever could add some doubles and singles to his game without losing power, he'd be a starting caliber 1B but for now at least he has an edge on Black.  I saw Black play in Wrigley against the Cubs early last season.  He just didn't look like a hitter the opposition had any fear of.   Maybe more AB's and some adjustments could help Black  

[cheapseats12]

This might be one of the stupidest articles I've ever read. He doesn't deserve to make the team when spring training just started. That's what spring is for dippy. Then u say aaa will do nothing for him. So what would be the point of that? Should he retire and become a monk? He should be given every opportunity to earn 3B and 1B time as part of the rotation. Saying he doesn't deserve it when the only way he can prove himself as a major league is to be a major league. Just a stupid article. He has all spring to earn a job or not. Putting the cart before the horse buddy. Once black adjusts to not having challenge system for balls and strikes and gets used to MLB strike zone he will be fine at the plate. If he can do well enough offensively u can make up for some lack of defense. Unless he is traded u don't just banish him to aaa like u r basically saying. Stuoud.

[Team Canada]

It's fine to strongly disagree with a piece, but let's tone down the condescension and insults.

[molitor15]

i'm afraid I must agree the article comes off being overly pessimistic of Tyler Black. what is being said here? that Jake Bauers is a solution to anything? Bauers struck out 118 times in 302 at bats last season. that's 39%. And this season he's striking out at exactly the same rate. if bauers is better than black, you would have to think that black is horrible. The article is condescending and insulting to Black. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, molitor15 said:

i'm afraid I must agree the article comes off being overly pessimistic of Tyler Black. what is being said here? that Jake Bauers is a solution to anything? Bauers struck out 118 times in 302 at bats last season. that's 39%. And this season he's striking out at exactly the same rate. if bauers is better than black, you would have to think that black is horrible. The article is condescending and insulting to Black. 

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

For clarification, this article was written in February.

I mean, hasn't Jake Bauers been a solution this season, especially at the price? He's having himself a nice little season in a platoon role with limited usage.

I don't think anyone believes Bauers is a long-term solution. The question is more whether Black has a role anywhere, something I've been skeptical of for a couple of years now.

[MattK]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

For clarification, this article was written in February.

I mean, hasn't Jake Bauers been a solution this season, especially at the price? He's having himself a nice little season in a platoon role with limited usage.

I don't think anyone believes Bauers is a long-term solution. The question is more whether Black has a role anywhere, something I've been skeptical of for a couple of years now.

I would have thought the Crew would have had Black play in the OF in Nashville for a solid stretch - 40 games or something - to get a good read on his potential value there.  That didn't happen last year as they were juggling other 40 man roster players (or potential ones) such as Roller and Hicklen while they were worried about the depth in the majors.

In most ways that makes me think there is something which the Crew is seeing that we do not.  Thus I expect they will move on from him by the end of 2025.  Unfortunately, as it seemed there was potential for <something> out of Black but the fit didn't work exactly here in Milwaukee.

[BrewerFan]

On 2/25/2025 at 4:57 PM, jesusoftheapes said:

I think your statement on what he should have in the Bigs was true.  He was called out by strikeout when he refused to swing at balls that were called strikes.  I also think this is a must learn part of Black's game.   Which is why I see no value in Black staying in AAA.   On top of that all I believe the Brewers told the umps to call things that way on purpose when Black was up to bat that series.  

I also agree with your review of the article .   Sal and Turang were not hitters like Black is when they came up.    Black is has always been a superior hitter to either Sal or Brice.   They called up because they were both golden defenders who had to develop better on offense.     The opposite is true from Black so comparing Tyler to either of those guys is not a good way to put his situation to word.  

Black seems being held back for other reasons I am not in agreement with.   It seems like a personality contest to me and Murphy openly hates on Black and it seems to be the only thing holding him back . 

Ok...the first claim is...insane. The Brewers told the umps to ring up Black and call close pitches strikes? To what end? So their top 100 prospect can...strike out?

 

And please, show me anywhere that Murphy has even shown or articulated a mile dislike for Black(much less "hatred.")

These are outrageous claims that deserve SOMETHING to support the veracity...

[BrewerFan]

On 6/13/2025 at 8:13 AM, molitor15 said:

i'm afraid I must agree the article comes off being overly pessimistic of Tyler Black. what is being said here? that Jake Bauers is a solution to anything? Bauers struck out 118 times in 302 at bats last season. that's 39%. And this season he's striking out at exactly the same rate. if bauers is better than black, you would have to think that black is horrible. The article is condescending and insulting to Black. 

Bauers has been very good this year and Black has been hurt. I think the "sweep spot" for Black will be next year as a 1B/DH/LF.

I think he'll be just fine in the OF. He's also played 2B and I think he was moved off there as much because the Brewers were moving him around trying to find an immediate home. He could play a passable 2B. 

But...he has to stay healthy and produce and he's regressed in that manner. 

I think there's a very little window for Black to make his mark as a Brewer or he'll be traded. That will come next year and I still like his overall game well enough I think he'll take advantage. But if he doesn't...he's kinda run out of opportunities. 

[yourout]

To me Black looks like another in a long line of guys that could tear up minor league "throwers" but had mechanical problems that got rapidly exposed against big league "pitchers". Frelick Turang and Chourio are the first guys I've seen come out of our farm system in a decade that didn't have massive issues with their front foot.

[jay87shot]

I've said this before, that Black probably projects as a guy who should hit .250 with .350 obp with 15 HR 25-30 sb (500 abs). If he can play 1st we'll enough I think he will have good value as a platoon 1B and 4th OF. Essentially a better version of Jake Bauers, with Mitchell's injuries and Hoskins being a free agent I wouldn't sell him off cheap. He can also provide emergency 3B/2B relief especially if you want to ph for Durbin/ortiz late, I'm sure Black can play an inning her or there for a late ph when necessarry.

I don't see Black doing much this year unless Hoskins or Yeli gets hurt, especially with Perk and Mitchell on rehab.