When does Arnold start to receive some criticism

[umphrey]

Not really getting into whether we should have signed Adames, but I think if he was playing here he would have put up 3.5 to 4 WAR in 2025 with us. I think he will even out his numbers in SF by end of year and I also think he just plays a bit better here for some reason. 

[rickh150]

38 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Not really getting into whether we should have signed Adames, but I think if he was playing here he would have put up 3.5 to 4 WAR in 2025 with us. I think he will even out his numbers in SF by end of year and I also think he just plays a bit better here for some reason. 

Glad  we don’t have that contract for any length of time and of course his best numbers are behind him, offense and especially defense.

[brewers888]

I agree that with our payroll limitations signing Adames would have been a mistake. The problem was essentially punting on replacing him thinking that Dunn and Durbin could handle third base which is clearly not the case.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Not really getting into whether we should have signed Adames, but I think if he was playing here he would have put up 3.5 to 4 WAR in 2025 with us

This seems like an often overlooked point. I also don’t think Devin Williams would be as terrible in the regular season in Milwaukee this year compared to New York.

[Frisbee Slider]

7 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The problem was essentially punting on replacing him thinking that Dunn and Durbin could handle third base which is clearly not the case.

There might have been a hypothesis that between Capra, Dunn and Durbin that someone would be replacement level or a little better.

Instead, each have been meaningfully below replacement level in their limited action.

[trwi7]

19 hours ago, Brian said:

But the ball flyes out of Colorado. 

Only if you hit it in the air

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

The guy who owns roughly 1/3rd of the team in the smallest market in baseball and who's net worth is less than at least two MLB players now?

Why not blame Giannis? He's pulling in ~100M a year. The  Uihlein Family or the Hawks owner Tony Ressler who are each worth ~11B dollars. 

Or the uncertainty of the Brewers baseball situation or revenue sharing or a million other things beyond the face of the owner not spending money for...what player? Who was the player that we should have signed?

I'll assume it wasn't the SS who is currently putting up 0.0 WAR and signed a 7/182M deal(though I think we could have overpaid by less and gotten him for 7/170) for a guy who'll turn 30 later this season. 

 

They didn't have Braun, Cain and Yelich?

It's got a little to do with inflation. 

The Brewers gave Yount the largest contract in MLB History at 3/9.3M, they had Stubbs as the largest FA signing for what seemed like a paltry 2/6M IIRC, Bill Wegmen was getting 2.4M, Teddy Higura had a deal in the 4/14M range, just shy of 5M a year, Molitor was being paid ~3.5M. 

This was the period where the salaries really started to explode and eventually led to the lockout in 1994. The Brewers in 1990 had the 5th largest payroll at ~20M and by 1992 despite continuing to spend, they were at about 31M, about average(Toronto was the leader at ~45M). 

 

And if you're just going back to higher end deals... they have outpaced ANY other manner of inflation, CPI or the Average Salary, the Minimum salary. You went from ~1M to start the 80s(Nolan Ryan 4/4.5M) to Young ~3/9.3M to 2000 Albert Bele 12M to 15M  for Kevin Brown by 2010 Johan Santana was making 20M a year, Arod 33M, 2020-both leagues are about the same at ~37M, 2025 now we're got Soto making up to 805B over 15 years and Ohtani earning 70M  a year and you can calculate that however you'd like as he's not going to have to pay Social Security, medicare, disability or the 13.3% state income tax as those are only collectible at the time paid. So he'll save 100M or more by deferring the money...obviously less than one could expect to earn on it, but as pretty significant jump. 

 

So yeah, a lot of it, especially for the top tier players is related to inflation in their salaries. To deny that is...to deny the sun is hot or water is wet. 

Salaries have gone up, but that doesn’t mean the Brewers market suddenly is generating double what it was 20 years ago. In particular the last CBA kills teams like the Brewers. 
 

The Brewers do a terrible job at marketing and branding (a pile of different uniforms, a handful of mascots, no heritage) which is almost entirely self inflicted. Could that make a difference in player acquisition if their brand and marketing was better, maybe? Who knows.

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Salaries have gone up, but that doesn’t mean the Brewers market suddenly is generating double what it was 20 years ago. In particular the last CBA kills teams like the Brewers. 
 

The Brewers do a terrible job at marketing and branding (a pile of different uniforms, a handful of mascots, no heritage) which is almost entirely self inflicted. Could that make a difference in player acquisition if their brand and marketing was better, maybe? Who knows.

To point A-Who said that means the Brewers are generating double what it was 20 years ago? I'd guess we probably ARE generating close to double what we were 20 years ago, but...that's not the point. The difference is now the top teams are spending 4X at much as they were then. You have 4 teams over 270 in payroll and there was one team spending a ton in 2005(the Yankees) and then MAYBE you'd have Boston spending over 100M and everyone else was under 100M. The Dodgers are probably paying 5-6X more when you include the luxury tax. Hell, they paid more last year just in the luxury tax than everyone BUT the Yankees 20 years ago. So yeah...I think the inflation of the top players salaries and the inflation of TV deals have caused the gap.

You made the claim the Brewers have NEVER been able to pay more than one player and then cited the Yount, Molitor days...and they were able to field a financially competitive team. They WERE able to pay 4-5 players among the top in the league at their position. Maybe not all at the VERY top, but it'd be like having 4-5 guys making 25-35M in this era. That's a pretty stark contrast.

A top 5 payroll right now would mean we'd have ~150M more to spend. A stark contrast.

20 years ago we also weren't spending tens of millions of dollars in Latin America or in a new AZ facility that's helped us become one of the best teams at maximizing the pitching talent we have.

 

I don't know how the last CBA "kills teams like the Brewers." If rewards them with draft picks if they have rookies who hit bench marks, it pools money to pre-arby players...it adds playoffs spots, it added the DH so Jimmy Nelson would have pitched at possibly an elite level for a period of time with Woody, Burnes and Peralta if we had that, but...that's not Brewers-centric.

The ONE thing it did was take the teams like the Mets and the Dodgers and penalize them even MORE for their insane spending...which gets spread out. 9 teams last year were in the luxury tax. That benefits the Brewers.

 

What part "kills" the Brewers?

 

AS for the Brewers doing a terrible job, that's...I'm not even going to bother responding to that. I find it to be ridiculous and...I'm not sure what you're looking for, but no fan base in Baseball supports it's team at a PER CAPITA level like the Brewers. So...yeah, I don't care about Jersey's or anything else. I like going and watching the Brewers play. I like the things they're doing at the park. I'm not sure where you're getting that they're terrible at branding and have no heritage and I can't debate such a...subjective opinion, so I won't.

 

I will say it seems like some people are so incessantly negative...it feels like you could look 90 minutes South and find a team that...they've got a whole Wrigleyville, they have "Heritage," I guess. And that's not me saying, 'why don't you go be a fan of the Cubs,' it's just me just not understanding how people can be so relentlessly negative about seemingly EVERY aspect of the Brewers organization.

 

Kinda feels like they've been doing something right.

[Sixtolezcano]

I’m beginning to think that MLB has passed by cities like Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland (definitely), and Pittsburgh. The only thing that can save these small market team is finding a multi-billion $ owner, and I really mean multi (Uihlein, Cohen, Rogers III,  Malone) that isn’t concerned about losing hundreds of millions of $. Sure there will teams lucky enough winning a WS or 2, but these chances more and more rare.

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I’m beginning to think that MLB has passed by cities like Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland (definitely), and Pittsburgh.

I think the hope for many MLB fans is that the next CBA will enhance the competitive balance across baseball. There are many different levers to do this. However, if the next CBA doesn't do anything about it, you will see more and more fans of smaller-revenue clubs slowly lose interest.

As poster BrewerFan states, though, there are ways in which the last CBA helped smaller-revenue clubs such as the luxury tax, limiting spending on international free agency, and no significant changes to roster rules/years of team control.

My hope is that the players union continues to fight for better wages/conditions/HR benefits for the middle class of players and 40-man roster guys. Perhaps smaller-revenue clubs, like the Brewers won't be able to afford the top 3 or 4 players at any given position, but that those clubs shouldn't have to wring their hands about spending $15M on an average starting first baseman like Hoskins. I would also like to see roster expansion to account for all of the shuttling of pitchers (which is not just a Brewers-thing).

[Brian]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

What part "kills" the Brewers?

"The Cubs" have already scored 71 more runs than the Brewers 1/4 of the way threw the season, thats killer. 

Yesterday Brewers gave up 18 hits and get only 3, that killer.

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I will say it seems like some people are so incessantly negative

Honestly, I don't think the posts here have been that overly negative. But if you look at some of the words used in Brewerfanatic News Headlines this week, you will find the following...

Mediocrity
Urgency
Dangerous
Mistake
Prevent
Frustratingly
Sellers
Red Flags
Wrong
Salvage
Make-a-change

[Brian]

32 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Honestly, I don't think the posts here have been that overly negative. But if you look at some of the words used in Brewerfanatic News Headlines this week, you will find the following...

Mediocrity
Urgency
Dangerous
Mistake
Prevent
Frustratingly
Sellers
Red Flags
Wrong
Salvage
Make-a-change

You forgot problems, with 3 starters batting under .199 that is a problem,

even after the DFA of Capra under .099 

[umphrey]

Shane Smith and Reese Olsen have more WAR than any Brewers pitcher right now. That kind of negligence does get people fired IMO. 

[wiguy94]

8 hours ago, umphrey said:

Shane Smith and Reese Olsen have more WAR than any Brewers pitcher right now. That kind of negligence does get people fired IMO. 

Arnold wasn't even charge during the Olson move. Should we retroactively tell Stearns he's fired?

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

You forgot problems, with 3 starters batting under .199 that is a problem,

even after the DFA of Capra under .099 

It's a fact that the Brewers have been really bad lately. It's a fact that they will need to play a lot better in order to challenge for the division. These aren't defensible opinions. These are the facts.

With that said, I think many of us here believe that the roster, as conceived and constructed, can improve merely by getting healthy, and having players improve individually. How many of us believe that Yelich will finish the season batting under the Uecker line, for example? How many of us believe that Jackson Chourio won't improve on his .285 BABIP, or .700 OPS as the season goes on? How many of us pictured the Brewers' innings-pitched leaderboard to look like this, with two of those listed being acquired after the season started? How many of us thought the left-side of the infield to be THIS bad?

In my opinion, the Brewers season has started off about as bad as imaginable, save for the first base production (irony!), and they are by no means dead and buried. I think making a number of moves out of fear that they have to catch up to the Cubs by June is a little reactionary. Ortiz has only recently passed one year of MLB service time, and Durbin is an unheralded rookie. Simply expecting normal professional progression from those two isn't a stretch of the imagination. Look at Turang and Frelick, who have grown into being average hitters, along with their elite defense.

I'm not predicting guys like Durbin and Ortiz to magically transform into all-stars, or for Woodruff and Ashby to suddenly return to peak form, but one doesn't have to squint too much to imagine improvement across the board, even defensively.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I’m beginning to think that MLB has passed by cities like Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland (definitely), and Pittsburgh. The only thing that can save these small market team is finding a multi-billion $ owner, and I really mean multi (Uihlein, Cohen, Rogers III,  Malone) that isn’t concerned about losing hundreds of millions of $. Sure there will teams lucky enough winning a WS or 2, but these chances more and more rare.

Yeah, you may be right. There is a lot of talk about MLB trying to impose a cap this year. At the rate things are going, I think you could set an inflated cap of...say 270M. I don't know if you make it a hard cap or not. But you're talking about a LONG lock out most likely. We've kicked this can down the road so far, I don't know if it's feasible to get it done, but you have even some of the wealthy owners who want it now. 

If there was a sport to have no cap, Baseball is the best option. 

And I am still optimistic the Brewers can win. It's going to take good luck, but I think 3-5 years down the road we could have a big window. I also think the best way to combat the salaries is sign guys early. You risk what with Chourio? You could be on the hook for ~80M over 8 years for a guy with poor plate discipline, power a good LFer who provides some value there, The upside...massive. Jesus Made...again, the floor is pretty high given he's a switch hitting MIF at this point. Pratt, Pena...pitchers are more unlikely, but we're coming out way ahead on Peralta+Ashby as of now. 

It's a very thin needle to thread, but I think given our resources, we're threading it as well as we can...

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, Brian said:

"The Cubs" have already scored 71 more runs than the Brewers 1/4 of the way threw the season, thats killer. 

How is the last CBA relevant to that???

 

7 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

How many of us believe that Jackson Chourio won't improve on his .285 BABIP, or .700 OPS as the season goes on?

Or that Pete Crow Armstrong will hit ~45 HRs or that Carson Kelly will have an OPS over 1.000 

 

I agreed with the rest but...I'm trying to be succinct(it's not a strong suit🤷‍♂️).

[Playing Catch]

On 5/18/2025 at 8:22 AM, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers do a terrible job at marketing and branding (a pile of different uniforms, a handful of mascots, no heritage) which is almost entirely self inflicted. Could that make a difference in player acquisition if their brand and marketing was better, maybe? Who knows.

Subjectively, I disagree. I think the Brewers marketing is strong. But I haven't seen any data to support this. Anecdotally, it seems to me that the branding is well-regarded nationally.

I think the Brewers should buy targeted ad space before every road series outside of the division, with a tagline of, "Your 2nd favorite team is coming to town!"

If I was a Yankees, Angels, or Astros fan, it would be fun to also root for the Brewers. Maybe even buy a hat or a Chourio jersey.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it's ironic all this Brewers angst at this point in a still very young season is happening as the Orioles come to town - a team oozing with young talent and a highly regarded farm system, who had to be historically bad for more than a few seasons at the MLB level in order to stockpile all that talent awarded to them by trades and a series of top 5 overall draft picks....and all they got from that was what, a 2 year window before they appear to be firmly back in the cellar of their division?

 

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the greatness of Shane Smith, too - he got knocked around his last start against the Cubs, but almost all of that damage doesn't show up in his pitching stat line because of a 2 out error.  Lots of hand-wringing about losing out on having to keep Smith on the Brewers' 40 man roster when they had the chance to do so.  Would it be nice having another seemingly young and talented arm available for this year's team and potentially longterm?  Sure - might be more difficult to find a way to get Mis up in Milwaukee where he belongs, but oh well.  I'm pretty certain Smith wouldn't solve this roster's current problem of scoring runs, though.

 

I think the issue with this roster with offense remains organizational philosophy, and IMO a big reason for it is payroll budget limitations at the MLB level - the 40 man, with the exception of a handful of players, physically looks like a database for utility infielders and 4th OFs whose primary calling card is defense.  Combine that with your best all around hitter (Contreras) being a catcher working through trying to play with a fractured finger, your priciest veteran being a shell of his former self yet still having to be in the heart of the lineup (Yelich), and your most talented youngster getting himself out too often with poor pitch selection (Chourio).  I don't think the organization has a problem developing hitters, it's the mold of players they've tended to go after doesn't prioritize offense the same way those Melvin Brewers teams did (which by the way struggled to develop pitching and defense).  It's why I'm excited seeing a bat like Wilken wake up in AA - a bat with light tower power playing a corner IF position.    

 

I do think the organization needs to figure out something different at the MLB level in terms of hitting coach/scouting/hitting work - that part of the Brewers is not working right now.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think it's ironic all this Brewers angst at this point in a still very young season is happening as the Orioles come to town - a team oozing with young talent and a highly regarded farm system, who had to be historically bad for more than a few seasons at the MLB level in order to stockpile all that talent awarded to them by trades and a series of top 5 overall draft picks....and all they got from that was what, a 2 year window before they appear to be firmly back in the cellar of their division?

 

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the greatness of Shane Smith, too - he got knocked around his last start against the Cubs, but almost all of that damage doesn't show up in his pitching stat line because of a 2 out error.  Lots of hand-wringing about losing out on having to keep Smith on the Brewers' 40 man roster when they had the chance to do so.  Would it be nice having another seemingly young and talented arm available for this year's team and potentially longterm?  Sure - might be more difficult to find a way to get Mis up in Milwaukee where he belongs, but oh well.  I'm pretty certain Smith wouldn't solve this roster's current problem of scoring runs, though.

 

I think the issue with this roster with offense remains organizational philosophy, and IMO a big reason for it is payroll budget limitations at the MLB level - the 40 man, with the exception of a handful of players, physically looks like a database for utility infielders and 4th OFs whose primary calling card is defense.  Combine that with your best all around hitter (Contreras) being a catcher working through trying to play with a fractured finger, your priciest veteran being a shell of his former self yet still having to be in the heart of the lineup (Yelich), and your most talented youngster getting himself out too often with poor pitch selection (Chourio).  I don't think the organization has a problem developing hitters, it's the mold of players they've tended to go after doesn't prioritize offense the same way those Melvin Brewers teams did (which by the way struggled to develop pitching and defense).  It's why I'm excited seeing a bat like Wilken wake up in AA - a bat with light tower power playing a corner IF position.    

 

I do think the organization needs to figure out something different at the MLB level in terms of hitting coach/scouting/hitting work - that part of the Brewers is not working right now.

Your last sentence raises what I think is a great point. Living in the world the Brewers live in financially, there are some areas you might not be able to throw money at the way some other organizations do. I've felt for awhile some of the major league support staff is done, comparatively, on the cheap. I think the game in Cleveland where the starter had to leave early illustrates that. They had to pivot to a new arm coming in & looked totally lost. It's how you wind up with Ed Sedar as your 3rd base coach. A delightful guy, but.........

I had the same suspicion about the staffs on some of the affiliates, but some of the minor league guys here who live & breathe with the farm system would know better than I about that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

18 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Your last sentence raises what I think is a great point. Living in the world the Brewers live in financially, there are some areas you might not be able to throw money at the way some other organizations do. I've felt for awhile some of the major league support staff is done, comparatively, on the cheap. I think the game in Cleveland where the starter had to leave early illustrates that. They had to pivot to a new arm coming in & looked totally lost. It's how you wind up with Ed Sedar as your 3rd base coach. A delightful guy, but.........

I had the same suspicion about the staffs on some of the affiliates, but some of the minor league guys here who live & breathe with the farm system would know better than I about that.

I feel like the Brewers did a great job under Steans years ago at recognizing a market inefficiency and putting some cash into developing their pitching lab, which IMO has dramatically helped them both develop pitching in their system but also identify and tweak MLB veteran arms to get the most out of them on a budget at the MLB level, rather than having to pay $40M+ a season in free agency to try and sign or pay a #1 starter.

Thinking they need different people (or at minimum a different teaching philosophy/approach) in the organization at both instructional and upper levels around hitting, along with some sort of similar "hitting lab" type of investment. It feels like there are bats in the minors right now that could have a dramatic impact on the perception of the Brewers being able to develop good hitters - that last step being able to carry minor league success into the majors consistently, and have that seem like a conveyor belt of prospects repeating that type of success, is a doozy. 

And, frankly sometimes it boils down to the profile of player you bring into the organization via draft to begin with - the Brewers have really gone heavy with toolsy athleticism that takes time to see them develop into MLB-caliber hitters (frequently never seeing that become their best quality as a player at the game's highest level) compared to advanced college bats in the draft where if they don't instantly have "it" they struggle to move up the minor league ladder rapidly, with a handful of recent noteable exceptions (Wilken, Boeve, Black) - I think if they went the Melvin route with some of his position player drafts, they'd have a larger stable of bat-first prospects in their system.

[Playing Catch]

On 5/19/2025 at 1:55 PM, Jim French Stepstool said:

Your last sentence raises what I think is a great point. Living in the world the Brewers live in financially, there are some areas you might not be able to throw money at the way some other organizations do. I've felt for awhile some of the major league support staff is done, comparatively, on the cheap. I think the game in Cleveland where the starter had to leave early illustrates that. They had to pivot to a new arm coming in & looked totally lost. It's how you wind up with Ed Sedar as your 3rd base coach. A delightful guy, but.........

I had the same suspicion about the staffs on some of the affiliates, but some of the minor league guys here who live & breathe with the farm system would know better than I about that.

I've always figured that organizations valued secondary coaches more as "clubhouse presences," and sagacious elders than for any sort of tactical masterminds. Ed Sedar being a delightful guy may be the exact reason they held on to him. Or maybe, and I'm making this up, but maybe Julio Borbon has a great reputation of working with young Latin players, Like Jackson Chourio. For my money, that's probably worth more than a guy that yells, "back," when the pitcher tries to pick you off, or "go for 2!" when you line a ball into the gap.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I've always figured that organizations valued secondary coaches more as "clubhouse presences," and sagacious elders than for any sort of tactical masterminds. Ed Sedar being a delightful guy may be the exact reason they held on to him. Or maybe, and I'm making this up, but maybe Julio Borbon has a great reputation of working with young Latin players, Like Jackson Chourio. For my money, that's probably worth more than a guy that yells, "back," when the pitcher tries to pick you off, or "go for 2!" when you line a ball into the gap.

As long as Borbon DOES do a great job in that regard, sure. I guess my larger point is that, if he is great at it, I don't know how successful we'd be at retaining him.

Sedar, when he moved across the diamond, was in a position of having to make in-game decisions on the fly, moreso than any other staff member. IMO he was not very good at it. If not for that responsibility he was probably fine.

I coached a lot of 1B. Believe me, there's an art to yelling "BACK!!!"😁

[sveumrules]

14 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Thinking they need different people (or at minimum a different teaching philosophy/approach) in the organization at both instructional and upper levels around hitting, along with some sort of similar "hitting lab" type of investment

They have the youngest position players on the Arizona Complex League. They lead the league in OPS by 76 points.

They have the youngest position players in the Carolina League. The lead the league in OPS by 61 points.

They have the youngest position players in the Southern League. They lead the league in OPS by 48 points.