When does Arnold start to receive some criticism

[Thurston Fluff]

7 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

I would be totally fine if we brought up Wilken to be our everyday 3B and live with all of his mistakes. I don't think he'd be much worse than Durbin, and would also bring a power component and likely better defense. I just don't see this roster as a contender, and would prefer us to move towards a youth movement and be sellers at the deadline.

If ever there was a season to be sellers this is the one I'd choose. We have a lot of players on expiring contracts that other teams may be interested in. Adding a few young players to the group of up and coming players already in the system would keep the competitive window open for quite some time. We could have three or four starting pitchers, maybe five if Cortez comes back soon enough, to trade along with Hoskins. While most of them won't bring back up and coming stars they should get us capable players and a few lottery tickets to boot. If Woodruff comes back strong he and Peralta could bring back legit major league talent.

[brewers888]

8 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I have no idea how you can say a major league ready player with six years of control is the throw in when only other player coming to us had a year of control and a balky elbow. Trading a guy because he was down to his last year of control for mainly another guy down to his last year of control makes no sense. If you thought Cortez was the main piece coming back it explains why you thought it was such a bad deal.

If Durbin was the main piece thats a problem in itself since he's basically a last man on the roster type of talent.

[shanedog19]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

If ever there was a season to be sellers this is the one I'd choose. We have a lot of players on expiring contracts that other teams may be interested in. Adding a few young players to the group of up and coming players already in the system would keep the competitive window open for quite some time. We could have three or four starting pitchers, maybe five if Cortez comes back soon enough, to trade along with Hoskins. While most of them won't bring back up and coming stars they should get us capable players and a few lottery tickets to boot. If Woodruff comes back strong he and Peralta could bring back legit major league talent.

That's where I am at too. I would add selling Yelich as well. He was a great player in his prime, but his best days are behind him and he probably deserves to play for a contender at this point.

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

He’s the reigning GM of the year,  it’s May 11th, and their starting catcher, center fielder, four starting pitchers have been hurt.  His 21 year old phenom hasn’t played well, and his highly paid former MVP has been atrocious. Given those truths, maybe Arnold catches some criticism in 2026 but probably 2027 before he feels any real heat. 

Understood, but amongst all those excuses, he still did nothing to address 3B.

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, brewers888 said:

How is it that every fan knew third base was a black hole yet Arnold did nothing to address it?

This is an excellent question

[Thurston Fluff]

32 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

If Durbin was the main piece thats a problem in itself since he's basically a last man on the roster type of talent.

I'm not so sure that's true. I don't think he's the best option as our starting third baseman of the future but he's sufficient as a stopgap and should be more than useful as a utility infielder long term. He's more like Blake Perkins than he is Monasterio IMHO.

You may think a one year starter and utility infielder is too light a return for Williams but that assumes there was someone offering more. I'm not so sure that's the case. He was a one year rental coming off an injury that cost him half the season.

[edfunderburk]

45 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

I would add selling Yelich as well. He was a great player in his prime, but his best days are behind him and he probably deserves to play for a contender at this point.

I have repeatedly suggested (& desired) for Yelich to be traded for anything - even a salary dump. Forum feedback reminds me that he has a “no trade clause” which makes a trade almost impossible. We are trapped & will pay him $26M per year until that atrocious contract expires. He was incredible in 2018 & 2019. He’s done very little since. Even if he agreed to a trade, what team would take him & his bloated salary on when he’s underperforming so badly. 

[edfunderburk]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't think Durbin is the best option as our starting third baseman of the future but he's sufficient as a stopgap and should be more than useful as a utility infielder long term. He's more like Blake Perkins than he is Monasterio IMHO.

I’d love this to be true (longterm utility infielder) but Durbin is unable to play SS (unless an emergency) & is subpar as a 3B. I fear his only position where he adds value is 2B & Turang will likely be extended (hopefully) because he is a superior defender. 

[edfunderburk]

9 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't think Durbin is the best option as our starting third baseman of the future but he's sufficient as a stopgap and should be more than useful as a utility infielder long term. He's more like Blake Perkins than he is Monasterio.

My only pushback with your comment is that Perkins is one of the best CF defenders in MLB. He also is a switch hitter & has hit decently over the last few seasons. Durbin only hits RH & is limited to 2B & 3B with a mediocre bat (thus far) … Monasterio can play all four infield positions (1B only in a pinch). I see Durbin as more similar to Monasterio than Perkins.

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I'm not so sure that's true. I don't think he's the best option as our starting third baseman of the future but he's sufficient as a stopgap and should be more than useful as a utility infielder long term. He's more like Blake Perkins than he is Monasterio IMHO.

You may think a one year starter and utility infielder is too light a return for Williams but that assumes there was someone offering more. I'm not so sure that's the case. He was a one year rental coming off an injury that cost him half the season.

People need to remember Durbin isn't playing his natural position, and is in his first weeks of seeing big league pitching. I too wouldn't be so quick to label him as a 'last man on the roster' type. He's basically a round peg being hammered into a square hole right now. His value as a utility guy is tempered by his not being able to play SS, but I'd definitely put him ahead of Monasterio.

Also agree that any criticism of Arnold doesn't deserve to be attached to the Williams trade. Unless he's a double agent designed to sabotage the Milwaukee Brewers, I'm pretty sure he didn't turn down any better offers.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

My only pushback with your comment is that Perkins is one of the best CF defenders in MLB. He also is a switch hitter & has hit decently over the last few seasons. Durbin only hits RH & is limited to 2B & 3B with a mediocre bat (thus far) … Monasterio can play all four infield positions (1B only in a pinch). I see Durbin as more similar to Monasterio than Perkins.

The hope is that his bat turns out somewhere north of mediocre, which I think he has a fighting chance for due to his plate discipline & ability to make contact. His ceiling might be as one of those guys that hits .260 but with a .370 OBP, which is pretty valuable. 

I know he's played there & is the only other option on the roster, but I'm not a fan of Monasterio as a SS. I think it's a big part of the reason why Capra was added last year & made the team this spring.

[Jim French Stepstool]

26 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I have repeatedly suggested (& desired) for Yelich to be traded for anything - even a salary dump. Forum feedback reminds me that he has a “no trade clause” which makes a trade almost impossible. We are trapped & will pay him $26M per year until that atrocious contract expires. He was incredible in 2018 & 2019. He’s done very little since. Even if he agreed to a trade, what team would take him & his bloated salary on when he’s underperforming so badly. 

It's hard to fathom how hot he would need to get in the next two months for someone to be willing to make a deal for him. Throw in that he's seeing little if any time in LF, even down two OFs.

[Jim French Stepstool]

49 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Understood, but amongst all those excuses, he still did nothing to address 3B.

Yelich, Contreras, Chourio (until the last couple days), Mitchell (before getting hurt) & Ortiz have all been subpar, and Perkins was lost just before opening day. I don't think Arnold expected all that much from Capra/Dunn at 3B, but if the aforementioned players were available/performed at a level you could reasonably expect then you could probably absorb that as long as they defended & the pitching was at a level we've grown accustomed to. Hell, they've been around .500 WITHOUT those things happening with any consistency.

No one can sugar coat what Dunn & Capra turned in offensively. I just think it's magnified by all the other underperforming.

[brewfanmn]

44 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Understood, but amongst all those excuses, he still did nothing to address 3B.

He didn’t? The current starting 3B was acquired this offseason and is a 25 years old holding his own in his first taste of the big leagues with 6 more years of team control

What move should have been made? Checking in so far on the most commonly desired names this offseason:

-Alec Bohm has a 65 OPS+ and has graded among the worst defensive 3B in the league his whole career

-Ryan McMahon has an 87 OPS+, has been a below average hitter every year of his career, is making $12 million and is owed another $32 million after this year

-Brett Baty was sent to AAA before the end of April. His season line is OK (106 OPS+) after hitting 3 HRs the last few days, but he also has a 30% K to 4% BB ratio and has always been a liability defensively

-Brandon Drury has not been able to make the White Sox roster and has a 67 OPS+ in AAA for them

-Jose Iglesias has a 63 OPS+

-Luis Rengifo has a 47 OPS+

-Yoan Moncada has been good in his 47 plate appearances, but has already spent a month the IL which is the known risk with him. Durbin has played more than Moncada, so the Brewers would have had even more Dunn or Capra so far if they had gone after Moncada instead. He’s also making $5 million, so you probably don’t have Quintana on this team if you have Moncada

Also, none of the trade candidates listed were actually traded by their teams. It takes two to tango

So what exactly were the obvious 3B moves missed?

[homer]

5 hours ago, homer said:

Contreras 237/353/321/673

Chourio 266/282/479/761

Yelich 200/298/350/648

 

Those three need to start hitting. If they don't, it won't matter what the GM does.

Your turn, Jackson.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, brewfanmn said:

He didn’t? The current starting 3B was acquired this offseason and is a 25 years old holding his own in his first taste of the big leagues with 6 more years of team control

What move should have been made? Checking in so far on the most commonly desired names this offseason:

-Alec Bohm has a 65 OPS+ and has graded among the worst defensive 3B in the league his whole career

-Ryan McMahon has an 87 OPS+, has been a below average hitter every year of his career, is making $12 million and is owed another $32 million after this year

-Brett Baty was sent to AAA before the end of April. His season line is OK (106 OPS+) after hitting 3 HRs the last few days, but he also has a 30% K to 4% BB ratio and has always been a liability defensively

-Brandon Drury has not been able to make the White Sox roster and has a 67 OPS+ in AAA for them

-Jose Iglesias has a 63 OPS+

-Luis Rengifo has a 47 OPS+

-Yoan Moncada has been good in his 47 plate appearances, but has already spent a month the IL which is the known risk with him. Durbin has played more than Moncada, so the Brewers would have had even more Dunn or Capra so far if they had gone after Moncada instead. He’s also making $5 million, so you probably don’t have Quintana on this team if you have Moncada

Also, none of the trade candidates listed were actually traded by their teams. It takes two to tango

So what exactly were the obvious 3B moves missed?

..........And the guy I would've been most interested in was Rengifo, who has the lowest OPS+ of the entire list (I would've liked McMahon, but not at what it would've taken to get him). Great post.

[markedman5]

Last year after the season

” when is a big market going to steal Arnold like they did with  Stearns? “
 

Brewers get off to a slow start

” When is Arnold going to start being criticized ?”

Let’s let the season play out……fans are notoriously reactionary.

Brewers are likely never going to be a team that just rolls every season…….as has been mentioned there were not any realistic options that were better at 3rd base this season…..and when your pitching staff gets decimated and your best hitters are struggling it’s not surprising that it’s been a tough start.

1 game under 500 is actually ok considering all of the above.

 

[jay87shot]

I don't have to many problems with Arnold. It's not his fault Yeli and Contreras aren't living up to expectation and none of us would have invasion Joey Ortiz's bat to fall apart. As others have mentioned the other options at 3rd that we could afford have not been good. You can beat him up some for the Devin return, Smith debacle, and the Priester overpay but also need to give credit for Myers, Patrick, and basically the entire bullpen. No other team could lose their offensive leader, top notch closer,  have the 2-8 starters miss extended time while only having a 120 million dollar budget (or so) and be around .500. Arnold has at least through the trade deadline before I start getting critical of his job. Individual moves, yes I will criticize but Arnold overall is still top notch in my book.

[SF70]

Matt Arnold should be extended.  IMO, he’s the best GM this team has ever had and the best small-market GM in the game.

He’s mproved the prospect-procurement abilities of the team since Stearns left. 4 incredible prospect classes in a row that has set the team up to be a NL powerhouse later this decade. 

He’s made a good hire with Murphy, along with many more good trades than bad. Just look at the Contreras-Payamps heist.

But for me it’s all about the vision. His vision of finishing-off what could be the best SM infrastructure in baseball and going full bore with prospect-procurement. The strategy of building the best young farm system in baseball with upside positionals and HS/JC projectable pitching. What we have now is the best young farm in the game and by a lot. 

We are fortunate to have him.

 

 

[LouisEly]

To answer the headline question:

When the Brewers consistently finish below where their payroll ranks.

[LouisEly]

10 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

When Wilken was drafted, my guess is they were targeting 2025 as his debut season.  He was obviously set back with injury, and until showing very positive signs the last month, hasn't performed all that well.

He took a 94 mph heater in the face early last season and had multiple facial fractures.  Takes a while to come back from that, as much mentally as physically.

He currently has a .951 OPS in AA.  I'd say he's progressing very well.

[BeerSlide]

I think the Shane Smith fiasco has been talked about ad nauseam and he deservedly is already getting criticism for that.

I think it's WAY too early to even begin to judge the Priester trade. Has he come out like gangbusters in the first 1/4 of year 1? Of course not! But how many more years of control do we have? Into the 2030s? Who's to say that he can't be an average or slightly above average picture in one or more of those seasons? And if he does that that might be enough because the assets we gave up for him could become something, but there's also a good a chance that none of them even make the major leagues. I still think the Brewers have at least a 50/50 chance of winning that trade, Just too much TBD to say one way or another right now IMO. 

I also can't fault him too much for not filling holes he likely wasn't given the resources to fill. Now if it later comes out that ownership wanted to solidify third base coming into this year but Arnold declined because he didn't feel it was necessary and that we had enough? Then yes, I'll criticize him for that too. No doubt.

I think the acute disappointment in this year's ~.500 clib is largely in part to how he's helped us overachieve in previous seasons. I think the earliest there's any widespread criticism would be 2027 if there is continued stumbling and obvious missteps.

[liveforoctober]

When will Arnold start getting criticized? I'm assuming you have not been perusing this board for the last 6 months?

The Quinn Priester trade thread has 190ish comments and not many smiley faces. The Devin Williams trade thread has 240 comments and not a ton on smiley faces. The Shane Smith thread has a bazillion comments and had to get moved because it was an issue taking over the board on a daily basis. The left side of our infield/Capra/Dunn/Ortiz has been one the most widely discussed topics.

Just read through a few threads man!

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Matt Arnold should be extended.  IMO, he’s the best GM this team has ever had and the best small-market GM in the game.

Bravo 👏 

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

We are fortunate to have Arnold.

💪👏