When does Arnold start to receive some criticism

[GreatNWwi]

When he trades away the "wrong" players in the next few weeks.

[Brian]

7 minutes ago, GreatNWwi said:

When he trades away the "wrong" players in the next few weeks.

So what do you think? Time for a rebuild? 😄 He created this team. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, GreatNWwi said:

When he trades away the "wrong" players in the next few weeks.

Yeah there will always be criticism on that - but IMO the Brewers almost need to trade away some guys people will cry "Selling too low!"  or "overpaying for a rental!!" just to maintain longer term roster flexibility with what is coming up through the system.  Look for the mix of developed prospects who are positionally blocked by some of their young talent already in Milwaukee, and guys who are either currently on or would need to be on the Brewer 40 man roster to avoid being lost to rule 5 or DFA/option limited.

I've always wanted to give Mitchell more than enough chances to both stay healthy and get a season's worth of at bats because I think he could have a couple MLB 30/30 seasons with GG caliber defense.  I think, despite being injured, he may be on the block just to try and get some return for his potential along with guys like Black, Carlos Rodriguez,  Patrick, Myers, etc for the right veteran bat to give the lineup a boost at 3rd or SS.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

17 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Yeah there will always be criticism on that - but IMO the Brewers almost need to trade away some guys people will cry "Selling too low!"  or "overpaying for a rental!!" just to maintain longer term roster flexibility with what is coming up through the system.  Look for the mix of developed prospects who are positionally blocked by some of their young talent already in Milwaukee, and guys who are either currently on or would need to be on the Brewer 40 man roster to avoid being lost to rule 5 or DFA/option limited.

I've always wanted to give Mitchell more than enough chances to both stay healthy and get a season's worth of at bats because I think he could have a couple MLB 30/30 seasons with GG caliber defense.  I think, despite being injured, he may be on the block just to try and get some return for his potential along with guys like Black, Carlos Rodriguez,  Patrick, Myers, etc for the right veteran bat to give the lineup a boost at 3rd or SS.

 

 

 

Overall I get what you're saying and agree to an extent. But I don't think it's realistic to get an upgrade at short or third for what would essentially be our leftovers. Ortiz's doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone at short. Certainly none that are available and a huge upgrade on offense. Giving the team a boost at short on offense would virtually guarantee a step back on defense. Third is a little harder to determine but so far Durbin seems to be doing far better than most of us thought he would in spring. It looks like our pitching was built around the fact we have a great defense. Giving up more runs to score more runs seems like a fools errand. 

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

After yesterdays win Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy had this to say, "it's only July 21st, emphasizing the ongoing nature of the baseball season and the need for continued effort." 

I'm not following how that relates to this thread?

[Frisbee Slider]

1 minute ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not following how that relates to this thread?

Plenty of time left for criticism? 🤷‍♂️

[Fear The Chorizo]

42 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

Overall I get what you're saying and agree to an extent. But I don't think it's realistic to get an upgrade at short or third for what would essentially be our leftovers. Ortiz's doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone at short. Certainly none that are available and a huge upgrade on offense. Giving the team a boost at short on offense would virtually guarantee a step back on defense. Third is a little harder to determine but so far Durbin seems to be doing far better than most of us thought he would in spring. It looks like our pitching was built around the fact we have a great defense. Giving up more runs to score more runs seems like a fools errand. 

I think you are way undervaluing our leftovers - because with the exception of Black, each of them have proven to be MLB regular-caliber players and have years of MLB control remaining.  One of the names I mentioned in my previous post included as part of a trade that also includes a younger prospect or two would be plenty to land a Suarez-caliber bat.

 

I do get the hesitancy to try and bolster the lineup at the expense of defense with a trade though.  I wrote earlier both Durbin and Ortiz have been awesome of late. 

[Playing Catch]

This is a must-watch for anyone that thinks the Brewers' Front Office is suspect. I tried to start it at the point when the two national baseball guys begin talking about the Brewers...

 

 

 

[adambr2]

6 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

Overall I get what you're saying and agree to an extent. But I don't think it's realistic to get an upgrade at short or third for what would essentially be our leftovers. Ortiz's doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone at short. Certainly none that are available and a huge upgrade on offense. Giving the team a boost at short on offense would virtually guarantee a step back on defense. Third is a little harder to determine but so far Durbin seems to be doing far better than most of us thought he would in spring. It looks like our pitching was built around the fact we have a great defense. Giving up more runs to score more runs seems like a fools errand. 

Your posts seem to indicate that you think Ortiz is one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, while analytics grade him as basically average.

This isn’t a criticism of you, because I know many people feel that way.

I want to pose the honest question, why is it that we tend to live and die by metrics around here, but when it comes to Ortiz, we say “nah, metrics be damned, I know when the eye test tells me”.

Again, this is a criticism of no one. Just a genuine question. As fans, do we often slightly inflate what we see defensively from sub par offensive players, subconsciously “compensating”?

Subconsciously, are we more prone to downplaying defensive abilities when the player hits well? Surely there are SS out there that do both well.

 

[sveumrules]

Just now, adambr2 said:

I want to pose the honest question, why is it that we tend to live and die by metrics around here, but when it comes to Ortiz, we say “nah, metrics be damned, I know when the eye test tells me”.

Ortiz was originally drafted as a glove first player, the foundation of his profile was always that he had the glove for SS. Once he got a regular MLB chance shortstop was already taken, so he played third base where both DRS and FRV saw him as solidly above average to the tune of +8 runs.

It's somewhat rare for the defensive metrics to be in lock step on their evaluation of an infielder though as we've seen this year with DRS pegging Ortiz for -6 runs while FRV says he has been +4 runs afield. That's a swing of a whole win in less than a full season, pretty extreme stuff.

In the more frequent cases where the metrics arrive at different conclusions, I like to consider the player's history along with my own amateur eye test assessment. For Ortiz it seems like the -6 DRS from SS this year is the obvious outlier, so I tend to think that FRV is doing a better job of capturing his defensive value as a SS to this point.

[bigred]

On 7/20/2025 at 9:02 AM, Playing Catch said:

I've been saying it for years, and we see it all over the sports landscape...

Bad ownership = Bad teams
Good ownership = Good teams

Attanasio is a good owner because the proof is in the pudding.

We hear it in his interviews. He wants to win. He values the fan experience. He spends time talking about hiring "good" people. Valuing "good" people, at every level of the organization, from front office staff to the players and their families. He values their contributions outside of their impact on the field.

Now I'm sure there are stories behind the scenes where some individuals have felt differently, but from my vantage-point, he is not a stereotypical greedy multi-millionaire, he's a guy who values people and communities who happens to be a multi-millionaire. Those people DO exist.

You mean the, get bounced in the 1st rd of the playoffs every year, pudding?

[Thurston Fluff]

57 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Your posts seem to indicate that you think Ortiz is one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, while analytics grade him as basically average.

This isn’t a criticism of you, because I know many people feel that way.

I want to pose the honest question, why is it that we tend to live and die by metrics around here, but when it comes to Ortiz, we say “nah, metrics be damned, I know when the eye test tells me”.

Again, this is a criticism of no one. Just a genuine question. As fans, do we often slightly inflate what we see defensively from sub par offensive players, subconsciously “compensating”?

Subconsciously, are we more prone to downplaying defensive abilities when the player hits well? Surely there are SS out there that do both well.

 

I can't speak for others but I think defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive ones in a single year sample size.  When you go back and look at what was said about him in the minors was a great defender with some offensive upside. His calling card seemed to always have been defense first. He certainly passes the eye test for me.

I also question how they weight some of the measurements. When it comes to offense it's pretty easy to compare the numbers. It was also fairly easy to determine what skill sets mattered most. (Though I sometimes question if that is as set in stone as some people think.) Defense, I'm not as convinced they weight each skill properly. Hell I'm still waiting for someone to show me objective metrics showing how important defense is compared to offense let alone how important each defensive skill set is compared to others.

 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Ortiz was originally drafted as a glove first player, the foundation of his profile was always that he had the glove for SS. Once he got a regular MLB chance shortstop was already taken, so he played third base where both DRS and FRV saw him as solidly above average to the tune of +8 runs.

It's somewhat rare for the defensive metrics to be in lock step on their evaluation of an infielder though as we've seen this year with DRS pegging Ortiz for -6 runs while FRV says he has been +4 runs afield. That's a swing of a whole win in less than a full season, pretty extreme stuff.

In the more frequent cases where the metrics arrive at different conclusions, I like to consider the player's history along with my own amateur eye test assessment. For Ortiz it seems like the -6 DRS from SS this year is the obvious outlier, so I tend to think that FRV is doing a better job of capturing his defensive value as a SS to this point.

 

27 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I can't speak for others but I think defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive ones in a single year sample size.  When you go back and look at what was said about him in the minors was a great defender with some offensive upside. His calling card seemed to always have been defense first. He certainly passes the eye test for me.

I also question how they weight some of the measurements. When it comes to offense it's pretty easy to compare the numbers. It was also fairly easy to determine what skill sets mattered most. (Though I sometimes question if that is as set in stone as some people think.) Defense, I'm not as convinced they weight each skill properly. Hell I'm still waiting for someone to show me objective metrics showing how important defense is compared to offense let alone how important each defensive skill set is compared to others.

 

Fair assessments. Thanks for the replies. 
 

I do think there are situations where the defensive skills of struggling offensive players tend to get exaggerated, but I’d agree in this case that the disagreement between DRS and FRV combined with what we’ve seen would also cause me to question the accuracy of the single season DRS for Ortiz.

[Playing Catch]

51 minutes ago, bigred said:

You mean the, get bounced in the 1st rd of the playoffs every year, pudding?

At the risk of stretching the metaphor, If a team was a pudding, and that team got to the playoffs "every year," I would keep coming back for seconds, yes.

[bigred]

22 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

At the risk of stretching the metaphor, If a team was a pudding, and that team got to the playoffs "every year," I would keep coming back for seconds, yes.

Brewer fans settling for mediocrity again. Hoping and praying for pure luck to actually win a WS. Wow. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, bigred said:

Brewer fans settling for mediocrity again. Hoping and praying for pure luck to actually win a WS. Wow. 

The Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB since Arnold took over in 2023 at 246 W - 180 L after today.

Mediocrity would be more like the Red Sox 213 W - 214 L since 2023, the Giants 212 W - 214 L since 2023, the Reds 211 W - 215 L since 2023, the Cardinals 206 W - 220 L since 2023, etc.

Mediocre teams don't get the chance to lose playoff games.

[bigred]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB since Arnold took over in 2023 at 246 W - 180 L after today.

Mediocrity would be more like the Red Sox 213 W - 214 L since 2023, the Giants 212 W - 214 L since 2023, the Reds 211 W - 215 L since 2023, the Cardinals 206 W - 220 L since 2023, etc.

Mediocre teams don't get the chance to lose playoff games.

Let me rephrase, then. Brewer fans setting themselves up for disappointment, again. If they're not gonna actually go for it, and make a big trade or 2 once in a while, especially when they have a deep system to trade from, then what's the point? Get our hopes up all season, just to immediately lose in the playoffs? Really? To me, that's called self torture. 

[MVP2110]

2 hours ago, bigred said:

Let me rephrase, then. Brewer fans setting themselves up for disappointment, again. If they're not gonna actually go for it, and make a big trade or 2 once in a while, especially when they have a deep system to trade from, then what's the point? Get our hopes up all season, just to immediately lose in the playoffs? Really? To me, that's called self torture. 

They made a big trade. They traded one of their better prospects and a comp pick for Quinn Priester 

[BrewerFan]

On 7/22/2025 at 4:39 PM, adambr2 said:

Your posts seem to indicate that you think Ortiz is one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, while analytics grade him as basically average.

This isn’t a criticism of you, because I know many people feel that way.

I want to pose the honest question, why is it that we tend to live and die by metrics around here, but when it comes to Ortiz, we say “nah, metrics be damned, I know when the eye test tells me”.

Again, this is a criticism of no one. Just a genuine question. As fans, do we often slightly inflate what we see defensively from sub par offensive players, subconsciously “compensating”?

Subconsciously, are we more prone to downplaying defensive abilities when the player hits well? Surely there are SS out there that do both well.

 

What metrics are we using here?

When I see the metrics, they match what I see on the field.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-ortiz-687401?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Samurai Bucky]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

What metrics are we using here?

When I see the metrics, they match what I see on the field.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-ortiz-687401?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=ss&type=1

Look for Ortiz's DRS (Defensive Runs Saved).  Before the Dodgers series, it was -8.  Now it is -5.  I believe an earlier post (or maybe it was in another thread) was talking about the -8 DRS.  I couldn't believe it either, and I still don't believe he is at -5.  I'm simply a software engineer, not a master statistician... 🤦‍♂️

[BrewerFan]

28 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

They made a big trade. They traded one of their better prospects and a comp pick for Quinn Priester 

Yeah...I did not like that. 

I'm over it. 

Now... feels like you'd have to go Henderson MAYBE Quero/Pratt to get Suarez. I don't want that either. Maybe I'll be wrong on both counts, but Priester was a talented arm we were buying low on, but we had 6 years. 

You get Suarez, at BEST he's who he's been this year and particularly as of late. Most likely, he doesn't keep up this past and you may have traded an elite defensive SS who draws walks and hits for power. 

 

I'm glad it's not my call and I appreciate the fact we have Made and Pena(both of whom I'd put JUST behind Chourio and Misiorowski as nearly untouchable)... but we can keep winning because we don't blow our best young talent like the Padres do. And even then, they could sign Machado and Tatis, Boegarts, and then...whoever else.

They've been outstanding as acquiring young talent. Just imagine if they were patient enough to let it develop? 

 

I ALSO think we gave up a lot for Priester and I think that is the result of having a deep and talented system. It's kinda hard to offer your 25th ranked prospect for a player you want... but there's less separation from the ~10th prospect to the 25th prospect that I can remember.

 

My guess is the Brewers could swing a deal for Quero+Henderson for Suarez. Is that a deal people want? Otherwise Pratt and a lower level prospect. Maybe that is good enough. That's... LOT to give up. I do not think we're getting him for Chad Patrick, Tobias Myers or a pitcher like that. Too many teams could use 3B help and right now he's a top 10 hitter. 

[adambr2]

19 hours ago, bigred said:

Let me rephrase, then. Brewer fans setting themselves up for disappointment, again. If they're not gonna actually go for it, and make a big trade or 2 once in a while, especially when they have a deep system to trade from, then what's the point? Get our hopes up all season, just to immediately lose in the playoffs? Really? To me, that's called self torture. 

First of all, I do agree that it's time to raise the bar — it's ok to start expecting playoff success now. I think we can all agree that we've been playing enough postseason baseball to start feeling disappointed with these early exits. It's not 2008 anymore. It's ok to talk about a World Series. 

 

I'll add to that by saying, I know it's not comfortable or popular to just blame it on "bad luck", and I'm not attributing it entirely to that ....but it's a big part of it. 

 

If we walk Bellinger and Grandal in extras in 2018...maybe we win the game and the NLCS. If Grisham doesn't flub the ball in '19, maybe we go on to win it all. If Devin doesn't blow Game 3 last year ....maybe everything turns out differently. We'll never know. Then you have a similar small market, with less consistent postseason appearances like the Royals, get to the playoffs just two years in 2014 and '15, and they make the World Series in the first one and then win it the following year. Sucks to say "it's baseball", but I don't know how else to explain that. I don't think the Royals made all these crazy moves in 2014 and 2015 that resulted in this. But it's what happened. 

 

None of this is saying we can't, and shouldn't, go get a bat or other weapon to improve our chances. That's fair. But it won't guarantee anything in this game. We can't have a better team on paper than the Dodgers. Doesn't mean we can't beat them, but we can't outspend and outinvest them. Unfortunately, the design of the game isn't fair. 

 

One thing to keep in mind though — the real difference makers, the Ronald Acunas, the Gunnar Hendersons — they're not really available. Not for what any team would realistically spend, not without risking actually making the rest of the roster worse. 

 

There's still assets out there that could help. But everything has to be considered. How does this guy fit into our system? How does he fit into the clubhouse? Will he be a seamless fit, or are we getting a Jesse Winker? If it's a position player, will he be a good defensive fit who will coordinate and communicate well with the others? (especially important when acquiring an infielder). Is the guy we are trading away crucial to the morale and general atmosphere of the club? I don't mean to suggest numbers aren't important — they are — I want a big bat too, but there are weird, unseen intangibles in baseball that just aren't always clear by the strength of your lineup. If there weren't, we certainly wouldn't have the best record in baseball. 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Look for Ortiz's DRS (Defensive Runs Saved).  Before the Dodgers series, it was -8.  Now it is -5.  I believe an earlier post (or maybe it was in another thread) was talking about the -8 DRS.  I couldn't believe it either, and I still don't believe he is at -5.  I'm simply a software engineer, not a master statistician... 🤦‍♂️

Yeah, I know DRS has him grading out poorly... I just don't believe it. 

Two contrasting reference points. Baseball Savant places him among the elite defensive SS's. We've watched Ortiz. So my eyes and one set of metrics(the one I generally default to). Or Fangraphs DRS and I don't trust my eyes. 

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

None of this is saying we can't, and shouldn't, go get a bat or other weapon to improve our chances. That's fair. But it won't guarantee anything in this game. We can't have a better team on paper than the Dodgers. Doesn't mean we can't beat them, but we can't outspend and outinvest them. Unfortunately, the design of the game isn't fair. 

 

One thing to keep in mind though — the real difference makers, the Ronald Acunas, the Gunnar Hendersons — they're not really available. Not for what any team would realistically spend, not without risking actually making the rest of the roster worse. 

That's my issue here. Suarez 100% looks like a "real difference maker." He does. Put him in this lineup with Yelich, Chourio both getting hot, hopefully Contreras heating up, still have some faith in Hoskins in a big spot and it's possible Black can be a bit of a spark plug for us(a non-zero chance anyway, he was right there with Frelick,  

Last 5 years, Suarez has a line of .229/.315/.439 and a 754 OPS, 107 OPS+ and ~26 HRs a year.
This year, 36 HRs, .254/.325/.598 for a .924 OPS

Are you giving up the player who'll be coming up next year and filling a hole at SS for the Brewers(or 3B). I'm guessing it's more likely 2027 or late next year in case of injury, but he's only 20. I look at all the teams, I think it's at least Pratt or Quero+ for either. That's really hard for me to justify, but I understand people want a bigger bite at that apple. 

[liveforoctober]

16 hours ago, bigred said:

Brewer fans settling for mediocrity again. Hoping and praying for pure luck to actually win a WS. Wow. 

Did you want Attanasio to go out and pitch to Alonso last year to prove he wanted to win it all? Maybe he should have gotten the best closer in baseball at the time to do it... Dang, bad fan base and owner. Not wanting it. All of 'em head in the clouds and delusional. 

If he could only assemble a roster to have the best record in baseball this year... Maybe that will prove he wants to win it all. Ehh, probably not. Delusional. 

Some of them just don't get it like us, BigRed. We are the ones that want it the most. We know.

[kestrel79]

On 7/22/2025 at 9:35 AM, GreatNWwi said:

When he trades away the "wrong" players in the next few weeks.

Lol yep. That post and comments are coming. Every trade last 2 years as been pretty criticized and it's ended up working out for the Brewers. It's almost like they know what they are doing after winning Front Office of the year last year and most likely again this year.