Brewers 58-40 at Dodgers 58-41; Sunday, July 20 @ 3:10 p.m.: Jose Quintana (3.28 ERA, 4.36 FIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (3.38 ERA, 4.19 FIP)

[treego14]

[Dragonbait]

Go get em!

[Jim Goulart]

Minus his prayer, this Cubs fan isn't wrong. Guess Bill Schroeder is right about his Exit Velocity takes -

 

[MoreTrife]

While that is funny, I now need some positive stats to calm my anxiety that it's just luck and voodoo as the Cubs fan thinks... Do we have any?

[Frisbee Slider]

If you hit the ball in the air, that just means the defense has an opportunity to catch it. If they catch it, that means you’re out.

Brewers must be onto something with the low exit velocity and launch angle. 🙂

[treego14]

2 vets faceoff!

2 lefties faceoff!

(another sweep is in motion ... we have the winning potion)

Don't cough!

[brewerfan82]

2 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

While that is funny, I now need some positive stats to calm my anxiety that it's just luck and voodoo as the Cubs fan thinks... Do we have any?

Chalk it up to a slow start! Since May 18th (over two months now):

• Team Offense
  • 115 wRC+ (3rd in MLB behind SEA and CHC, each with 116)
  • .267 AVG (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)
  • .340 OBP (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
  • 274 R (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
  • 55 SB (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
• Team Pitching
  • 3.20 ERA (1st in MLB, 1st in NL)
  • 1.17 WHIP (3rd in MLB, 3rd in NL)
  • 79 ERA- (1st in MLB, 1st in NL)
  • 3.64 xFIP (4th in MLB, 3rd in NL)

[wibadgers23]

Might as well sweep them again!

[formerlybis]

2 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

While that is funny, I now need some positive stats to calm my anxiety that it's just luck and voodoo as the Cubs fan thinks... Do we have any?

It’s voodoo. I like being in their head.

Even with such a stats-heavy sport, there’s still an intangible element of how the pieces fit together and - to borrow Murphy’s quote - competing.  I think the defense and base running stats are probably the most indicative manifestations of those attributes.

That being said, I still wish we had more bop in the lineup so that we aren’t as reliant on run manufacturing. We’re good at that, but scoring could be easier.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

Minus his prayer, this Cubs fan isn't wrong. Guess Bill Schroeder is right about his Exit Velocity takes -

 

Brewers Devil Magic!!!!!

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

While that is funny, I now need some positive stats to calm my anxiety that it's just luck and voodoo as the Cubs fan thinks... Do we have any?

We are 58-40. I don't think you luck into that. I imagine it is possible to 'luck' into a .500 record if you are a below average team and 'luck' a winning record if you are a .500 team, etc .. so that concept can apply here. Are we one of the 3 best teams in baseball? Probably not ... so we have 'lucked' into that spot. But we are a good team and we are going to be pests in the post season. Who cares what our exit velocity is. We throw it well, we catch it well and we round 'em well. Try to stop us.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

16 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

We are 58-40. I don't think you luck into that. I imagine it is possible to 'luck' into a .500 record if you are a below average team and 'luck' a winning record if you are a .500 team, etc .. so that concept can apply here. Are we one of the 3 best teams in baseball? Probably not ... so we have 'lucked' into that spot. But we are a good team and we are going to be pests in the post season. Who cares what our exit velocity is. We throw it well, we catch it well and we round 'em well. Try to stop us.

Anyone know what we are base runs wise? It really seems to my eyes like we crush base running. We score from first on doubles. Go from first to third wonderfully. Steal bases. Hit and run. Avoid making unnecessary outs (perhaps our biggest weakness is caught stealing, but that is at least somewhat the result of aggressiveness). 

On the other side, our infield and outfield range has to be elite. I'll bet we steal tons of outs.

The Cubs fan talks about speed but doesn't really mention base running or defense, which feels to me like the key pieces or org philosophy that are statistically measurable.

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

Minus his prayer, this Cubs fan isn't wrong. Guess Bill Schroeder is right about his Exit Velocity takes -

 

bulls2024, if you're reading...

Team speed doesn't directly correlate with base running. It certainly helps to be fast, no doubt, but the Brewers +11.2 BsR is 1st in MLB even if they're only sixth fastest.

That's a big reason they are 7th in runs per game (4.77) despite being only 15th in wRC+ (101), not to mention all the poor StatCast rankings cited (many of which are kind of all saying the same thing in different ways).

It also doesn't appear as though you've mentioned performance with RISP anywhere (maybe it's not available via StatCast?) but that will always be a big driver for run scoring. The Brewers are 9th in PA (976), 5th in wRC+ (112), and 5th in RBI (333) with RISP this year.

On the pitching side, you seem to have completely left out defense, which is weird because I know StatCast has FRV and they say the Brewers have been the 4th best defense with +20 FRV.

The Brewers season long pitching stats are also skewed by giving up 47 runs in their first four games. For perspective on just how insane that is, they've allowed 51 runs in their last seventeen games. If we start things at April 1st their 91 FIP- is 5th and their 82 ERA- is 2nd in MLB. Their defense has helped save them something like 0.35 runs per game with a 3.32 ERA | 3.67 FIP split since those first four games.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Anyone know what we are base runs wise?

Looks like FanGraphs has them plus four wins by base runs.

4.77 actual runs per game versus 4.45 expected runs per game.

3.91 actual runs allowed per game versus 4.00 expected runs per game.

BaseRuns thinks we should have a +45 run differential (9th) instead of our actual +84 run differential (3rd).

[Brian]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

If you hit the ball in the air, that just means the defense has an opportunity to catch it. If they catch it, that means you’re out.

Brewers must be onto something with the low exit velocity and launch angle. 🙂

Correct: Exit velo is for highlights not for winning games.  Rod Carew was my favorite player growing up and had only 98 HR's in over 9000 at bats but hit .328 in his career. That is a great HOF ball player that had low exit velo. 

[willie key]

Don’t worry about those stats.    Who gives a crap about where you rate on launch angle for godsakes.   
 

the brewers are weird because of how bad they were at beginning of year.   You can not score any runs and never get a hit but it only counts as one loss

they are considerably better the last two months.   I will let you debate what are the real brewers.   The April team or the may through July team

[JCREW]

17 minutes ago, Brian said:

Correct: Exit velo is for highlights not for winning games.  Rod Carew was my favorite player growing up and had only 98 HR's in over 9000 at bats but hit .328 in his career. That is a great HOF ball player that had low exit velo. 

Yesterday during Chourio's 3rd inning AB, he had an exit velo of 87.1 and a launch angle of 2 deg. It was on a two-strike pitch after hitting a few foul balls. He had swung hard at the first couple of pitches, and then changed to a two-strike approach. Levering said something along the lines of, "Chourio is thinking, 'The first two swings are for me, but once I have two strikes on me, the other swings are for the team.'" 

I think instilling this mindset is perhaps the single best thing about Murphy as a manager. It will lead to some low exit velo as people protect the plate, but it will also lead to getting runners over and in more and more often.

[JCREW]

13 minutes ago, willie key said:

I will let you debate what are the real brewers.   The April team or the may through July team

I know it's cherry picking, but take it one step further...

If you exclude just the month of March, the team is a league leader. 

Starting with April 1, the Brewers have the best record in MLB, and trail only the Cubs in run differential (125 to 116).

[Jim French Stepstool]

I like people who are overly obsessed about launch angle & exit velocity. I think they're funny.

This guy thinks his team should have just maintained their cushion in the standings & then steadily expanded it. Instead, while still winning games at a decent pace the lead is only one game. He's annoyed by that.

Some analytics can be interesting, even at times significant. But those who overly obsess on them forget how baseball can't be defined in a neat, analytics-driven statistical package like FB & BB can.

Regarding todays' game, I think it would be a wonderful day for Yelich to watch Kershaw throw from the comfort of the dugout. His ABs vs LHP yesterday were embarrassing.

[Jake McKibbin]

Tyler Black recalled as Jake Bauers on the 10 day IL with shoulder inflammation.

[Frisbee Slider]

5 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Tyler Black recalled as Jake Bauers on the 10 day IL with shoulder inflammation.

Over under on Tyler Black plate appearances this week?

[duewizard]

3 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Over under on Tyler Black plate appearances this week?

5.5?

 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Over under on Tyler Black plate appearances this week?

Also odds on Bauers having another PA as a Brewer

[willie key]

You know the brewers are having a magical season if Tyler black does anything productive 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

So, if Sal is ready soon, we can replace Black with him, right? Would be him or Siegler?

I know it's only a few games, but Perkins is a legit big-leaguer.