Should Brandon Woodruff Be Milwaukee Brewers' Game 1 Playoff Starter?

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Brandon Woodruff's form since returning from what could have been a career-ending injury has been beyond the wildest dreams of even his most fervent fans. The grizzled bulldog has a 2.29 ERA through 35 1/3 innings pitched, despite hurling the ball at lower velocities than his career norms. He's been making hitters look silly and has pummelled the strike zone, resulting in 45 strikeouts against just six walks. 

Even more impressively, his fastball seems to be ticking upward from one game to the next, a scary thing for opposing hitters. Woodruff's arsenal is dominated by his four-seamer/sinker combination, preferring the sinker to right-handers and the four-seamer to lefties. Both of these offerings are returning some ludicrous swing-and-miss rates, thanks to the command of both pitches—numbers made all the more impressive by how consistently Woodruff is pounding the strike zone with each. 

Woodruff isn't dancing around hitters. He's going right at them, blowing them away time and again. With such a fastball-heavy approach, you might think that hitters would begin to square him up as he goes through the order a second and third time, but in fact, the opposite has proven true.

Woodruff's fastball seems to take an inning or so to ramp up, sitting 90-91 mph early in his starts before living around 94-95 mph from the third inning on. Perhaps this plays a part in his success as he works through an order, but his results there are startling:

Woodruff has a 33.3% strikeout rate the third time through an order and has given up just one walk in the 21 hitters he's faced. That's a small sample size, but we should also note how his stuff has played better the second time through. He grows into the game as it goes on, and that third time through is vital in playoff games.

True, Woodruff has been a bit prone to the home run ball when he misses his spot, but the lack of walks and hits (he has a 0.68 WHIP on the season) means that those long balls haven't done a lot of damage.

Let's contrast this with the presumed playoff starter, Freddy Peralta:

Peralta has been dominant in the first inning, but slowly seen that wear away, to the point that you would feel unsure about him in the second inning as hitters adjust to his stuff—never mind the third time through an order. It's not a horrible set of numbers, and most pitchers do regress the third time through, but in Game 1, you want a pitcher to go more than five innings if possible. The Brewers' set-up with Aaron Ashby and DL Hall allows them to cover from short starts better than most, but it isn't ideal.

Peralta also has a habit of occasionally throwing games away. If his fastball command is even slightly off, he seems to spray it around, getting into a lot of deep counts and issuing a lot of walks. He, too, can be prone to the long ball. Despite possessing some of the best stuff in the league, Peralta doesn't inspire quite the same level of confidence as Woodruff, who you know will continue to pound the strike zone and force hitters to beat him.

Woodruff is the only pitcher the Brewers would consider starting in Game 1 of the playoffs over Peralta. Experience matters in these situations, and Peralta has been the undisputed leader of this staff since Woodruff's shoulder surgery. That being said, Woodruff's experience and mindset are perfectly suited to the pressure of a playoff series, and Pat Murphy could start him without having anyone (even Peralta) ask any especially hard questions about it.

Brandon Woodruff's stuff is getting nastier with each outing. He's shown himself to be consistently dominant, even when seeing hitters a third time through, should that be needed. He's a bulldog, and he would set a tone for the Brewers in the 2025 playoffs while creating one of those full-circle moments from his injury heartbreak in September of 2023.

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Who would you like to see in game one of a playoff series? Does the third time through an order matter as much in a short series? Would your answer change depending on whether it's a Wild Card Series game or a Division Series game? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Trax]

Yes.

[BruisedCrew]

Way too early to talk about things like this.

[OldHeidelberg]

For sure, Woodruff was above Freddy in the pecking order when he got hurt and has done nothing but prove he belongs back in the #1 starter role. I just trust him more and I am guessing most would agree.

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I just trust him more and I am guessing most would agree.

Agree. I'd say yes, but do I expect Murphy to start him first? No.

That said, they're clearly the first 2 starters, so I don't know how much it really matters until you get to a Game 7.

[JCREW]

With a larger bullpen that the postseason provides and the results improving the more he lathers up, what about having Woody do his normal warmup routine 20 minutes earlier, then throwing a simulated inning before first pitch?

Then plan for him to go 5 innings before turning it over to a pretty dang good bullpen.

[wiguy94]

46 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Agree. I'd say yes, but do I expect Murphy to start him first? No.

That said, they're clearly the first 2 starters, so I don't know how much it really matters until you get to a Game 7.

I mean if the Brewers get a Top 2 seed and a bye to the NLDS, the game 1 starter is pretty important if the series goes 5 games as that would be your game 5 starter.

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean if the Brewers get a Top 2 seed and a bye to the NLDS, the game 1 starter is pretty important if the series goes 5 games as that would be your game 5 starter.

Not this year! :)

"The two NL Division Series will have an extra scheduled off day between Games 1 and 2, a format that allows a team to have the same pitchers start Games 1 and 4, and Games 2 and 5, on normal four days' rest. Last year, the AL Division Series had the extra off day."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45956287/world-series-begin-oct-24-mlb-drops-plan-start-early

[Brian]

I would totally and completely leave that up to Pat Murphy, Chris Hook, Charlie Green, Jim Henderson and the analytical staff.  Way way to much can happen in the next 43 games before the playoffs even get here. Anything from blisters to pulled muscles, arm issues etc. etc.  We know probably less than 50% of what is going on with our pitchers.  I even heard complaining about Miz skipping a start but I promise you it was the right thing to do because I trust this staff we have. No one will ever agree 100% of the time, every time. 

[Turning2]

As things stand today, I'd think they would go with Woodruff for the obvious reasons already stated, primarily, Freddie struggling to get through 5-6 innings consistently. 

[Brian]

3 hours ago, Turning2 said:

As things stand today, I'd think they would go with Woodruff for the obvious reasons already stated, primarily, Freddie struggling to get through 5-6 innings consistently. 

I would choose Woody also but he is definitely no more than a 6 inning guy also. 

[tmwiese55]

And in the playoffs these days everyone is basically a 4-6 inning guy other than maybe a handful of guys like a Skubal/Wheeler.    For some reason the rest of the league has seemed to copy what the moron Brewers started in regards to 3rd time through lineup cautiousness combined with loading a bullpen of 3-4 fireballers to lock down those last innings rather than a worn out guy throwing his 95th pitch. . 

Quick google summary, and saw another note that LAD hasn't had a SP complete the 7th since 2021

In last year's playoffs, 7 starting pitchers completed at least 7 innings in a game. There were 41 total playoff games, and starting pitchers averaged just under 4 2/3 innings per start. Only 16 times did a starting pitcher pitch into the seventh inning, and just seven times did a starter complete seven innings,

[jay87shot]

Ultimately I do trust Woody more but it kind of depends on the last 2-4 starts off the year. Whomever is pitching best should get game 1. I am not against Misi possible getting a game 1 start either but much much less likely.